Category Archives: Humor & Entertainment

A Study in Time–Puppy Run

Do Low Interest Rates Help the Economy?

Optionality

penguins

There is a joke that illustrates the value of optionality

An investment banker and carpenter are sitting next to each other on a long flight. The investment banker asks the carpenter if she would like to play a fun game. The carpenter is tired and just wants to have a nap, so she politely declines and tries to sleep. The investment banker loudly insists that the game is a lot of fun and says, “I will ask you a question, and if you don’t know the answer you must pay me only $5. Then you ask me one question, and if I don’t know the answer, I will pay you $500.” To keep him quiet, she agrees to play the game.

The investment banker asks the first question: “What’s the distance from the earth to the Saturn?” The carpenter doesn’t say a word, pulls out $5, and hands it to the investment banker.

The carpenter then asks the investment banker, “What goes up a hill with three legs and comes down with four?” She then closes her eyes again to rest.

The investment banker immediately opens his laptop computer, connects to the in-flight Wi-Fi, and searches the Internet for an answer without success. He then sends emails to all of his smart friends, who also have no answer. After two hours of searching, he finally gives up. The investment banker wakes up the carpenter and hands her $500. The carpenter takes the $500 and goes back to sleep. The investment banker is going crazy from not knowing the answer. So he wakes her up and asks, “What does go up a hill with three legs and comes down with four?”

The carpenter hands the investment banker $5 and goes back to sleep.

Go find bets like that!

A Trading Parable

Once upon a time, a man and his assistant arrived in a very small town and spread the word to the townspeople that the man was willing to buy monkeys for $100 each. The people knew there were many monkeys in the nearby forest and immediately started catching them. Thousands of monkeys were bought at a price of $100 and placed in a large cage. Unfortunately for the townspeople, the supply of monkeys quickly diminished to a point where it took many hours to catch even one.

When the new man announced he would now buy monkeys at a price of $200 per monkey, the town’s resident’s redoubled their efforts to catch monkeys. But after a few days the monkeys were so hard to find that the townspeople stopped trying to catch any more. The man responded by announcing that he would buy monkeys at $500 after he returned with additional cash from a trip to the big city.

While the man was gone, his assistant told the villagers one by one: “I will secretly sell you my boss’ monkeys for $350, and when he returns from the city, you can sell them to him for $500 each.”

The villagers bought every single monkey, and they never saw the man or his assistant ever again.

Perpetual Capitulation

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An ode to the end of a con

How long can deception go on?

When prices are set By banks printing debt

All trust in the “markets” is gone!

There is no stand-alone Narrative regarding gold today (June 2013), as there was in 1895. Today gold is understood from a Common Knowledge perspective only as a shadow or reflection of a powerful stand-alone Narrative regarding central banks, particularly the Fed … what I will call the Narrative of Central Banker Omnipotence. Like all effective Narratives it’s simple: central bank policy WILL determine market outcomes. There is no political or fundamental economic issue impacting markets that cannot be addressed by central banks. Not only are central banks the ultimate back-stop for market stability (although that is an entirely separate Narrative), but also they are the immediate arbiters of market outcomes. Whether the market goes up or down depends on whether central bank policy is positive or negative for markets. The Narrative of Central Banker Omnipotence does NOT imply that the market will always go up or that central bank policy will always support the market. It connotes that whatever the central bank policy might be, it will drive a market outcome; whatever the market outcome, it was driven by a central bank policy.

The stronger the Narrative of Central Banker Omnipotence, the more likely it is that the price of gold goes down. The weaker the Narrative – the less established the Common Knowledge that central bank policy determines market outcomes – the more likely it is that the price of gold will go up. In other words, it’s not central bank policy per se that makes the price of gold go up or down, it’s Common Knowledge regarding the ability of central banks to control economic outcomes that makes the price of gold go up or down.

Instead, the focus of the mainstream Narrative effort moved almost entirely towards what open-ended QE signaled for the Fed’s ability and resolve to create a self-sustaining economic recovery in the US. And it won’t surprise you to learn that this Narrative effort was overwhelmingly supportive of the notion that the Fed could and would succeed in this effort, that the Fed’s policies had proven their effectiveness at lifting the stock market and would now prove their effectiveness at repairing the labor market. Huzzah for the Fed!

See 6_30_13-HOW-GOLD-LOST-ITS-LUSTER-THE-ALL-WEATHER-FUND-GOT-WET-AND-OTHER-JUST-SO-STORIES  and   A Negative Narrative on Gold

gold IR

Negative News Tends to Cluster at MAJOR bottoms:

  1. Gold Could Go To $350
  2. Gold Sends a Message
  3. Gold Could Plunge to $800

My Jaw Dropped: Long gold, short US stocks, Short US Dollar

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low gold

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commodities and emerging market equities

Commodities

Will the US Dollar Continue its Rampage Higher? 272660136-Raoul-Pal-GMI-July2015-MonthlyRate hikes and goldRate hikes are “bad” for gold?

rising rates bad for gold
Zweig Calls HighStocktoCommodityAtAllTimeHighInvestors above flee tangible assets for financial assets. Taken to an extreme, input costs for companies will go to zero and profit margins to infinity. Reality?

Biotech Fantasy2Biotech Fantasy

Capitulation Part II

Gold-Miners-vs-200-MA

Gold-Miners-Compound-Return (1)

An Epic Bear Market in miners

Mining securities are not the thing for widows and orphans or country clergymen, or unworldly people of any kind to own. But for a businessman, who must take risks in order to make money; who will buy nothing without careful, thorough investigation; and who will not risk more than he is able to lose, there is no other investment in the market today as tempting as mining stock.” – Charles H. Dow (1879)

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There is NO REASON to own gold! (NOW, they tell us!)

No hope for gold holders

Global dollar stress might be causes gold price crashes.

The “price action” for gold is bad!  The price of gold went down.

dollar mg

Why not be happy and say that the dollar buys you more gold because of this:

Chart-2-basis-and-cobasis

The holders of physical bullion are not selling, but futures traders are–see the red line rising which is the co-basis.  If I hold gold in stock, but sell futures to lock in the price, then co-basis represents the difference between the bid price for spot and the offer price for futures.   Leveraged futures traders are selling futures but bullion holders are not de-stocking (selling).  The selling in gold futures has brought epic extremes in prices of miners relative to gold/silver. EPIC quantitative easing may be a factor.

Video: Sellers in action:SELL ‘EM!

BAML commodities

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Does Gold represent good “value?”

Gold to S&P 500


Ratio gold to sp

Only you can answer that question. Don’t confuse gold (money) as an investment. If you couldn’t find a margin of safety in the current stock market, you might own gold because you believe gold relative to dollars is safer, holds purchasing power better, more stable, etc.

See Value Investors Hate Gold

For those technical wizards out there, note that silver did not “confirm” the price decline in gold yesterday.

Capitulation

Just remember (thanks www.monetray-metals.com)

Batman-knows-best

Good Analysis on Seaboard; Ten Other Blogs

SEB vs Brk

When everything is coming your way, you’re in the wrong lane. –S. Wright

Above you can see Seaboard’s stock price vs. Berkshire’s over the past decade.

Below is a good example of research on a cyclical company. Note that the analyst goes back far enough to see how the business performs over several cycles and economic booms and busts.  You may not agree with his conclusions (say that the company will continue to grow at 12%) but you can clearly see his assumptions.

If readers in the Deep-Value group (Google Groups) find interesting case studies don’t hesitate to share with the group. You will learn more from each other than from just reading this blog or the blogs listed below.

Seaboard-Corp-seb-other-protein-trade.html

Ten Other Blogs of Interest

  1. Contrarian Edge: http://contrarianedge.com/
  1. ValueWalk: http://www.valuewalk.com/
  1. Brooklyn Investor: http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/
  1. The Aleph Blog: http://alephblog.com/
  1. Wexboy: http://wexboy.wordpress.com/
  1. Greenbackd: http://greenbackd.com/
  1. Value Investing World: http://www.valueinvestingworld.com/
  1. The Graham Investor: http://www.grahaminvestor.com/
  1. Old School Value: http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/articles
  1. Long Term Value Blog: http://longtermvalue.wordpress.com/

10 Value Investing Blogs You Should Follow (for detail on each blog)

Time-out: A Case Study in Pigeons

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Case Study in Pigeon Investing

Times are hard.  Your family has been struggling to make the mortgage payments on your farm since the 50% decline in corn prices.

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Your lucky day! You get a call from a friend’s neighbor that he (The Pigeon King) desperately  needs breeders for his growing pigeon business. With a $125,000 investment financed with a second mortgage against your farm you can buy 360 pairs of pigeons at $165 a pair.  Then he offers to buy back the newly bred pigeons for $40 each (pigeons breed prolifically) with a ten-year contract.  He says these pigeons are for racing.  Then he gives you a list of five farmers in your state who are breeding pigeons for him.  Take your time and do your due-diligence, he says.

You check his credit ratings–all good.  No criminal or civil complaints. He owns his farm free and clear–he is a farmer like you!  After meeting with three of the pigeon farmers who confirm with check stubs that he has been paying them on time and as promised. The returns are good–in excess of 80% to 100% in terms of food and overhead to raise the chicks. Considering your time to look over your pigeons, you figure you can net a 50% pre-tax return on your capital. Plus, your contract allows you to sell whatever you produce at the stipulated price, so growth will be profitable.

Also, you hire an investigator to interview the Pigeon King. She sends you this video interview: Making Fowl into good fare—it this a good idea and A successful pigeon farmer

Times are hard. What do you do? Before you decide, you are inspired by

You gotta have dreams and the will to believe!

Pedgeon King

You remember what you learned as a deep value investor over at csinvesting.org and you_________? Why? What INVESTING/BUSINESS principles help you in your decision?

Please write them down now.  Then read on.

Many years later, you notice in the paper:

the-pigeon-king-and-the-ponzi-scheme-that-shook-canada.html

This article, The Pigeon King (same as the link above but with additional commentary for easier reading) is one of the most amazing stories–a farce, a tragedy, a comedy AND chock full of lessons for the investor.  You may think you are too smart to be a pigeon or a bird-brain (sorry!) but ANYONE can be blind.  What checklist items stop you (besides it’s too good to be true?).

What did YOU learn?

Money for nothing and your chicks for free

 

 

POP QUIZ: What’s it worth? Good or bad business?

gold-industry-market-cap-relative-other-companies-ocm-gold-fund-feb-27-2014-presentation

 Case-Study-So-What-is-It-Worth  Buffett finally seeks an assistant to help him find and value companies.  You meet him at a diner in Omaha.   He slips you the above financials, then he asks you to comment.  Please take no more than 20 to 30 minutes.  Is this a good business? Why or why not? So what do YOU think it’s worth?  Should Buffett buy this Wall Street darling (at the time?). Show your back of napkin calculations and don’t spill any coffee.

The “Solution/Analysis” will be posted Friday-here.

Some people in the Deep Value course are nodding off.   Try the quiz to sharpen your thinking. If you don’t come close, you will have to meet:

Liquidation Valuation (Ch. 2 Deep Value)

Time-out: How to Think and How to read a book        Worth reviewing.

As a supplement to Chapter 2, Contrarians at the Gate in DEEP VALUE, please read the highlighted paragraphs on liquidation value in Seth Klarman’s chapter on Valuation (Chapter 8 in Margin of Safety and emailed to the Deep Value Group at Google).

You will understand

  1. how wide the range of valuations can become
  2. how uncertain valuation is.

Therefore, a value investor passes on what he or she can’t understand or uses CONSERVATIVE assumptions to build-in a margin of safety.

Take your time and read the above chapter carefully, especially his case study on Esco Electronics.  He makes a compelling case. The difference between price and intrinsic value (determined several ways) is ASTOUNDING.  A great investment should slap you in the face–it should be obvious, but then you might say what am I missing? You can’t believe the opportunity.

To reveal one of the secrets of this course (shh..) by the time we have journeyed through the readings, examples, videos, and cases, you will realize that if you are buying assets like net/nets, then you must buy them VERY cheaply to allow REVERSION to the MEAN to work.

Or if you go the Munger/Buffett (in his later years) route and buy franchises with moats around them (the companies have high returns on invested capital and they either grow profitability or return excess cash to shareholders) those companies are RARELY on sale.  The franchise moat (barrier to entry) slows the reversion to the mean process while high profitability allows for compounding of capital–an investor’s nirvana.

Great investments are FEW and FAR BETWEEN unless markets are in a huge dislocation.  Keep waiting and waiting until the money is just lying there for you to safely pick it up.  In other words wait for:

williamsgraphic

Can any pretty women taking this course teach the others:say no

Certainly we need to do better than this:

I will be posting a lesson index shortly.   We will tackle Chapter 1, The Paradox of Dumb Money, of Quantitative Value next before we move back to Chapter 3 in Deep Value and read Buffett’s Partnership letters (to be posted).

Thinking Differently (Money Ball); Munsingwear Analysis

BREAKING BIASES



I HIGHLY recommend you go see Money Ball or read the book by Michael Lewis.  A metaphor for deep value investing.

Case Study – Munsingwear Analysis Q&A

Who earned their wingtips?  That case was about approaching the problem as a business person.  First you had to notice the two businesses, then break them out. Stop the bleeding, then leave the rest.  Often, the smartest students struggle to resurrect the uncompetitive business. (Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway!)

Next, I will post some questions and supplementary readings for Chapter Two in DEEP VALUE (the book) over the weekend.

Enjoy your Weekend!

Quantitative Value Lecture in NYC, Announcements for DEEP VALUE

dogs

I am temporarily using this email (jac007csi@gmail so check your spam filters) until I have my bulk email issues sorted out with AOL.com.  If YOU enrolled in the course and did not receive the email mentioned below, then email me at Aldridge56@aol.com and request the course materials for lesson 1.

I sent this book out before so delete if you have it. For those newly enrolled, please place in your research library. Not required reading.   Enrollment is NOW closed!

Attached is a book, M of Safety by Seth Klarman.  Over this course, I will be sending out other books/cases/notes and then asking for volunteers to do more in-depth research on the book, then we will share with the other students.  For example, I ask for one volunteer to critique that book.  Why is it a classic (on Amazon for $2,000) and what lessons for the investor? Is it similar to The Intelligent Investor?  You may wish to wait before volunteering because I will be sending out other projects by early next week and then you may choose a subject/topic of greater interest.

After reviewing Lesson 1 by Friday, we will watch a deep value investor/activist in action. Then for the advanced students, they can advise a company through a case study.  Then we will move onto liquidation values and Net/Nets.  We will circle back later (with the help of a volunteer) to further analyze Behavioral Portfolio Management (a reading from lesson 1).   Does investing in stock with NEGATIVE net worth makes sense?

There are 450 students enrolled. If only 10% volunteer for the twenty or so “special projects” then up to two people will be adequate.

Please consider DROPPING OUT if you are not a fanatic, Phanatic 

NOTICE: I can’t go, but can you or someone you know wish to attend?

Wesley Gray, co author of Quantitative Value Lecture on Wed. Jan. 7th at NYSSA in New York City

Date
Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Time
6:00 p.m.-7:30 p.m. | Presentation

7:30 p.m.-8:00 p.m. | Networking

Location
NYSSA Conference Center
1540 Broadway, Suite 1010, (entrance on 45th Street)
New York, NY 10036

Fees
Member $20     Nonmember $40     Student Member $15
($10 surcharge for walk-ins)

Registration Deadline

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Credits
CFA CEs= 1.5

Speaker
Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D.

Chairs
Janet Mangano
Chris Goulakos
Michael Livian, CFA

Additional Information
If you are unable to register for this event online, please call (212) 541-4530 for assistance.

Register via Mail/Fax 
Policies and Procedures