Category Archives: Humor & Entertainment

Ebola Outbreak to Help US Economy

EBOLA

Ebola Comes to America: Krugman & Stiglitz Must Be Delighted

By Daniel Oliver

Oh! What a Lovely Pestilence!

Ebola has come to America.  Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz must be delighted.

The core story of Keynesian economists is that government demand, as ideally embodied in war spending, enables economic growth. To illustrate, in a column called “Oh! What A Lovely War!” Krugman asserted: “World War II is the great natural experiment in the effects of large increases in government spending, and as such has always served as an important positive example for those of us who favor an activist approach to a depressed economy.”

It is never quite explained how removing millions of young men from the work force – many of whom never return – to sink ships, destroy factories, and level cities could possibly create wealth; nor how shortages and price controls on the home front could be good for the economy.

But fellow Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz agrees with Dr. Krugman’s prescription: “What we need to do instead is embark on a massive investment program-as we did, virtually by accident, 80 years ago. . . . Can we actually bring ourselves to do this, in the absence of mobilization for global war? Maybe not.”

Or maybe so. Last month Lakeland Industries announced the U.S. government had placed an order for 160,000 of its hazmat suits. The stock jumped 30% after the first confirmed case of Ebola on American soil. No Federal Reserve stimulus programs were necessary to create this wealth effect.

lakeland

If the often-fatal disease spreads, demand for hazmat suits will surge, not to mention hospital clinics, workers to build barricades, security guards to man quarantine checkpoints, probate officers, orphanages, and a host of other government services. It’s a good bet ammunition sales would also rise, along with canned food, firewood, and funeral services, stimulating the private economy. A lovely pestilence could create just as many jobs as a global war.

Former Obama advisor Christina Romer has pointed out: “The lesson [of World War II] is that demand is crucial – and that jobs don’t go unfilled for long. If jobs were widely available today, unemployed workers would quickly find a way to acquire needed skills or move to where the jobs were located.”

And if those jobs were located in the middle of a hot zone, even better. Leftist economists have bemoaned the low price of labor for over a century, advocating various artificial means to raise it, such as boosting the minimum wage and forming unions. But reducing the supply of labor could boost wage rates naturally and permanently.

As Krugman wrote recently about China: “to put it crudely, it’s running out of surplus peasants. That should be a good thing. Wages are rising.” History supports his analysis. The plague in medieval Europe killed between 30% and 60% of the population, which resulted in a sustained increase in wage rates that taught the capitalists a lesson by retarding economic growth for centuries. Ebola similarly offers a chance to solve America’s surplus labor problem and stick it to the capitalists harder than any of Thomas Piketty’s proposals.

As an added bonus, Ebola would save the government trillions. Obamacare Architect Ezekiel Emanuel wrote last month that it is pointless to live past the age of 75. The mind slows, senses weakness, productivity crashes, creatively vanishes: I have liv’d long enough: my way of life / Is fall’n into the sear, the yellow leaf.

And it’s expensive. Most healthcare spending is at the end of life, not surprisingly, when people are the least healthy. If people die young, Obamacare and Medicare will be saved. And, like aborted fetuses in the U.K., the bodies could be used as fuel to heat hospitals, reducing their carbon footprints.

The trillions saved could be spent on more stimulus. In fact, the more people die, the more savings there would be, and the more stimulus would be available to boost the economy for whoever is left. Imagine how rich the survivors would be!

Sadly, Ebola-stricken Liberia is unfamiliar with progressive economics. News outlets report that people are abandoning the fields and factories, leading to shortages, especially of food and fuel. Activity in the services sector has fallen by over 50%. Inflation has doubled. Civil war threatens.

Perhaps what West Africa needs is not more doctors, but a few Keynesian economists. Let us hope Krugman and Stiglitz volunteer.

Daniel Oliver Jr. is the founder of Myrmikan Capital, LLC, and is President of the Committee for Monetary Research and Education.

Have a Great Weekend!

Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide

The story of Fed policy and the stock market.

“The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.”–L. Mises

“If the Fed doesn’t INCREASE QE, then this sucker is going down.” Chicago Slim

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”

Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

“In February 1720 an edict was published, which, instead of restoring the credit of the paper, as was intended, destroyed it irrecoverably, and drove the country to the very brink of revolution…”

Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

“In reading The History of Nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their whims and their peculiarities, their seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do. We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.”

Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

“Nations, like individuals, cannot become desperate gamblers with impunity. Punishment is sure to overtake them sooner or later.”

Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

“It happens that crashes and panics often are precipitated by the revelation of some misfeasance, malfeasance, or malversation (the corruption of officials) engendered during the mania. It seems clear from the historical record that swindles are a response to the greedy appetite for wealth stimulated by the boom. And as the monetary system gets stretched, institutions lose liquidity, and unsuccessful swindles are about to be revealed, the temptation to take the money and run becomes virtually irresistible.”

Charles Kindleberger

1-Indexes-Overview

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=33555

 

Gone Fishing!

Skater

Investing through the prism of a “successful business owner” requires the right combination of temperament and behavior. Specifically, success requires, no, demands, the temperament to view booming stock prices as increasing risk and crushing stock price declines as increasing opportunity. Many professional and lay investors profess to possess a contrarian element to their investment behavior and attitude, but far fewer are able to repeatedly execute when the chips of extreme fear or greed are on the table.  Furthermore, successful stock market investing requires the preparation and execution of a marathoner, not a At Wedgewood we attempt to amplify this “business owner” edge through significantly higher conviction by means of a focused portfolio of just twenty stocks.   2q_letter

SP-500-vs-Gold-Miners

Upon return, I will post my Yamana valuation. There seems to be little interest in the miners–a great sign for contrarians.

Why gold? Perhaps this gentleman from the 1800s, John Witherspoon, knows what we will learn in the future–that fiat money is a failure.

A great read: An Essay on Money by Witherspoon

I will be back in two weeks.norman-rockwell-sport-april-29-1939

 

Compare and Contrast

MINERS-GOLD-RATIO-CHARTS-JUN-18

MINERS-INDEX-MONTHLY-LINEAR-CHART-JUN-18

TMS-2-long-term-dosh-slosh

The above represents my understanding of INFLATION, not prices rising. Prices may or not rise depending upon supply/demand for goods and currency. Usually, as the supply of currency increases much faster than the production of goods and services, then prices rise or the value of the currency declines.

World-stock-vs-GDP

inflation_jerryholbert

Thanks to www.acting-man.com and www.zerohedge.com

Another Bubble (Housing)

MR Housing Bubble

“CitiBank” going crazy again

http://adventuresincapitalism.com/post/2014/06/07/This-Is-How-The-Banks-Created-The-Last-Crisis-Part-II.aspx

Prepare for resource shortages or at least growing demand as population rises from 7 to 10 billion in the “Great Fill-up”  http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_religions_and_babies

www.adventuresincapitalism.com   (A blog from an international investor/entrepreneur)

A coming disaster in oil supplyhttp://buysidenotes.com/2014/06/07/the-era-of-cheap-oil-is-over/#more-796

Low Grade Credit Bubble Fraying at the Edges (subprime auto loans) http://www.acting-man.com/?p=31099

 Joel Greenblatt’s Gotham Funds:  http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2014/06/what-to-do-in-this-market-ii.html

Why inflation MAY become out-of-control if people wish to hold lower money balances and/or lending increases:

fed-prepares-to-keep-super-sized-balance-sheet-for-years-to-come.html

Learn from other investors: http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/06/value-in-action.html

Mid-Day at the New York Metals and Mining Conference May 12th

Single SpeakerWorkship

2 people conference hall

As you can see above, attendance was sparse this year at the New York Metals and Minerals Conference:  http://www.metalsandmineralsevents.com/ehome/index.php?eventid=81632&

A Clue?

TSX V

Time to dig in…………and uncover opportunity in the neglected, abandoned sector.

Studying Pre-Production Mining Companies

See videos: http://www.goldsilverdata.com/mining-101.html

https://www.explorationinsights.com/pebble.asp?t=150

http://www.sprottglobal.com/natural-resource-investing/site-visits/

http://www.sprottglobal.com/natural-resource-investing/investment-university/

How to read a technical report: Mining Fundamentals

A Fourteen Year-Old Reader Asks, “How to Start?”; Worldly Wisdom

ANSWERS

 

Education is the ability to listen to almost anything without losing your temper or your self-confidence. –Robert Frost

My idea of education is to unsettle the minds of the young and inflame their intellects.  –Robert M. Hitchins

My own education operated by a succession of eye-openers each invovling the repudiation of some previously held belief. –George Bernard Shaw

Every act of conscious learning requires the willingness to suffer an injury to one’s self-esteem. That is why young children, before they are aware of their own self-importance, learn so easily; and why older persons, especially if vain or important, cannot learn at all. –Thomas Szasz   (www.gloomboomdoom.com)

A Young Reader’s Question

How do I become a great investor?

CSInvesting: Well, it might be too late for you. I started at age eight, and I struggle to keep the pace. 🙂 However, if you still wish to learn, read widely and experience life. Start a small business. Sell T-shirts or think of a fun business where you can sell products to your classmates.

My grandfather’s advice: “John, that’s your name right?” http://youtu.be/AloNERbBXcc

Buffett’s lecture to Indian business students (MUST SEE): http://youtu.be/4xinbuOPt7c   (Value the business BEFORE you see the price.)

A Course in Charlie Munger’s Worldly Wisdom

The journey towards worldly wisdom travels through two equally important territories. Firstly, learning significant concepts from the different disciplines (“the big ideas”). Secondly, learning to recognize patterns of similarities among them.

Worldly-Wisdom-by-Munger

Academic Economics_MungerUCSBspeech

Course Outline for Worldly Wisdom

Lecture_1

Lecture_2

Lecture_3

Track down more lectures: http://www.safalniveshak.com/fundoo-professor-called-sanjay-bakshi/

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!

David and Goliath: Underdogs, Misfits, And the Art of Battling Giants

Perhaps it is one secret of their (Bankers’) power that, having studied the fluctuations of prices, they know that history is inflationary, and that money is the last thing a wise man will hoard.–Will Durant in Lessons of History

Brain Crusher Answer: Amarillo Slim Plays Ping Pong with a Coke Bottle

Amarillo Slim

This Solution answers the post, Thinking Out of the Box post found here:

http://csinvesting.org/2011/10/15/think-outside-the-box-case-study-challenge-yourself/

AMARILLO SLIM HUSTLES THE HUSTLERS.

Excerpts from Amarillo Slim in a World Full of Fat People by Amarillo Slim Preston

Bobby Riggs, the 1939 Wimbledon Tennis Champion tried to hustle Amarillo Slim in Ping Pong. Riggs was looking to bust Slim’s skinny ass.

Slim tells the story, “I told Riggs I would play him in Ping Pong straight up with one stipulation: that I got to choose the paddles.

“We both use the same paddle?” Bobby asked.

“Yessir.”

“So when you show up with two of the same paddles,
can I get my choice of which one of them?”

“Yessir, so long as I can bring the paddles.”

Bobby thought I was pulling a schoolboy’s scam—that it was a weight thing or that one of the paddles was hollow or something. But once I told him that he could choose whichever of the two paddles he wanted to use, he couldn’t post his money fast enough.

We bet $10,000 and agreed to play at two o’clock the next day. Before I left, just to avoid any misunderstanding, I confirmed the bet: We were to play a game of Ping Pong to twenty-one, each using the paddles of my choosing.

I showed up the next day at the Bel Air Country Club ready to wage battle. When Bobby asked to see the paddles, I reached into my satchel and handed him two skillets, the exact same weight and size, and told him he could use either one. Now, Bobby was about as coordinated an athlete that ever lived, but he was swinging that skillet like a fry cook on speed. It wasn’t until I had him buried that he started to get the hand of that skillet, but it wasn’t soon enough. I won the game 21-8, and it could have been much worse.

Once again I proved that you can make a living beating a champion just by using your head instead of your ass. The easiest person in the world to hustle is a hustler, and Bobby had taken the bait like a country hog after town slop. You see, I had been practicing with that skillet since I saw him in Houston, and after I collected the money, I shook Bobby’s hand and we both had a good laugh.

Naturally, word spread like wildfire about old Slim fleecing Bobby Riggs, and seven or eight months after it happened, I was in Knoxville, Tennessee, at an American Legion club, to play some poker. There were quite a few wise guys there, including a man named Lefty, who said to me, “Slim that was a pretty good thing you did, playing Ping-Pong with Riggs.” Then Lefty said to me, “I’ve got a buddy that can beat you at Ping-Pong.”

“You haven’t got a buddy who can beat me if I choose the paddles,” I said.

Now, this guy knew how I beat Bobby. The whole world knew how I beat Bobby. And I knew he knew it, so I couldn’t just set up a match to play with skillets, now, could I?

I knew I had to find a way to relieve old Lefty of his money.
I left for Amarillo the next day, wondering how in the hell I was going to find a way to beat Lefty’s pal at Ping-Pong. A few days later, I was drinking Coke from a glass bottle in between games of a friendly pick-up game of Ping-Pong.  For fun, I reached down with the bottle and hit the Ping-Pong ball and it went plumb over the net.

coke

I tried to do that again but I couldn’t. You see, there is an area of only about a sixteenth of an inch on a bottle that will make the ball go over the net. So I practiced and practiced until I could hit the ball over the net every time, and right then I knew that Coke bottle was going to make me a boatload of money.

My only problem was that I couldn’t just show up in Tennessee looking for Lefty—that would have awoken the dead—so I had to find me a reason to go back to Tennessee. I waited a few months for the next big poker game up there, and when I showed up, Lefty didn’t waste any time approaching me. “I guess you’ve been practicing your Ping-Pong back in Amarillo,” he said.

You said it, Lefty. I’ve been playing Ping-Pong all day, every day, for thirty hours a day.”

“That right? My friend will be here in two days.”’

Well, I’m gonna do a little bit of fishing as soon as I bust these poker players.  If he wants to play me some, let me choose the paddles and he is got him a game.”

“What if he is a good player?”

“I don’t give a damn if he is a good player or an aviator. If I get to choose the paddles, we will play.”

“Oh, I’ll guarantee you he’ll play.”

So I went fishing for a couple of days, and when I came back, boy, they didn’t disappoint me with their ringer. Wouldn’t you know it, but they had gotten themselves the world-champion table-tennis player from Taiwan, and he was there waiting for me, licking his chops like a dog at a luau.

Let’s get it on!” Lefty said.

“No,” I said, savoring the moment. “Let’s post our money and play thirty days from now. I need to practice a little, now that I see you got yourself a real-life
Ping-Pong champion.”

While I can play a fair game of Ping-Pong with a skillet, I am not interested in speculating, nor am I interested in making a small score. You see, friend, when I make a wager, the bet has already been won. And if I’m gonna win, I sure as hell want to break somebody doing it.

Even though Lefty and the rest of them wise guys had suitcases full of money, I knew that if I stalled, word would spread that old Slim was going to receive his
comeuppance—and Lefty would have the rest of his rich buddies there to get a
piece of me, too. So we agreed to hold the match in thirty days—and then we’d
play for real money. Not only did I want to give Lefty an opportunity to tell all his associates, but I also wanted to give that champion even more time to practice with his skillet.

I made sure we agreed that we were to play a game of Ping-Pong to twenty-one, each using the paddles of my choosing.

About a month later, just a day before the match, I got a call from one of my associates saying that the champ was practicing with the biggest frying pan this side of Texas. That wasn’t news to me—I knew that was their intention all along-but I suppose they underestimated this here country cowboy.

The next day I arrived in Tennessee I bet with everybody who wanted to bet against me at even money, and when I couldn’t get any more action, I bet everything else I had laying 6 to 5, which meant that if I lost, I’d pay them suckers $6 for every $5 they bet me.  Now it was time to play, and everyone was standing around waiting for me to pull out those skillets. They figured I was just stalling when I went over to a vending machine, put in a dime, and bought a bottle of Coca-Cola. Then I put in another dime and bought another one. I opened both bottles and walked over to a wastebasket and dumped the Coke right out.

Lefty and the rest of the crowd were getting impatient, but I didn’t say a word. I simply walked over to the Ping-Pong table with the Coke bottle and I said to that
champion, “It’s your choice of paddle, son. Which one will it be?”

“Paddles?” he asked.

“Yeah, these here Coke bottle are our paddles. Have your pick.” Well, that boy looked like he couldn’t swallow boiled okra!

Once he grabbed one of the bottle, I said, “I’ll even give you the choice—do you want  to serve or return serve first?”

This champion glanced over at Lefty, who didn’t look so good himself. “Well, goddamn, “Lefty said, “take the serve.”

“Okay,” I said, “Let’s go.”

On his first round of serves, he never even hit the ball over the net. Not one shot. So it was love-5 when he threw me the ball. When I served it over—I’ll give that boy credit, he did hit it every time, but it would go either straight up in the air
or right into the net. He never did return one of my serves.

I’d rather not say how much I had on the match, because it caused a severe audit when word got around. But suffice it to say that no one—not even a world champion—ever challenged me to a game of Ping-Pong again.

I like to bet on anything—as long as the odds are in my favor.
….I also learned that there are people who love action and others who love money. The first group is called suckers, and the second is called professional
gamblers, and it was a cinch which one I wanted to be.

Rather than try to take advantage of the ignorance of a sucker for a few dollars, I take aim at the ego of a millionaire and try to win me a few thousand. If there is one fatal flaw, the Achilles’ hell of every
gamble, it is hubris.  No gambler ever wants to lose face, and I have used that psychological edge to my advantage. All I have to do is play to a wealthy man’s ego, and not only can I get him to gamble, but I can get him to gamble with me for life

One person figured it out. Excellent. To pay him the $500,000, I will need each of you who tried but fell short to send me $500,000–looks like I got about $5 million coming my way!

Have a Great Weekend!

This is it!

NYSE-investor-credit-SPX-since-1980

NYSE-margin-debt-SPX-growth-since-1995

vix

SPX-10-yr-yield-and-fed-intervention

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-the-SPX.php

COM-Traders-Stampede-to-Cash-06282013

But who do we sell to?   (Let’s not forget the risks as new highs are made every-hour-of-every day since good news is good news and bad news is good news).

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130722.htm