I spoke to a group of investors about buying high quality companies like NVS, DVN, (KMB, CLX too expensive), and Goog but was booed off the stage. This is only one indicator–and a very volatile one at that–but the 22% bullish number is about the lowest reading for the past few years. The last time the bullish readings were near 20% was February 19th and March 5th 2009 during the depths of Hell. Fiscal Cliff, sub-4% money growth, European Crisis and the political news are wearing on the little (and big) guy (gal). Be careful but greedy.
AAII Sentiment Index
For 25 years of historical AAII Sentiment Data:AII Sentiment
|The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months; individuals are polled from the ranks of the AAII membership on a weekly basis. Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period.|
|Sentiment Survey ResultsWeek ending 7/18/2012 Data represents what direction members feel the stock market will be in the next 6 months.|
|Bullish||22.2% down 8|
|Neutral||36.0% up 1|
|Bearish||41.8% up 7.1|
|Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% because of rounding.
Change from last week:Bullish: -8.0 Neutral: +1.0 Bearish: +7.1
Long-Term Average:Bullish: 39% Neutral: 31% Bearish: 30%
Sentiment Survey Past Results