It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. –Charles Munger.
This is an example of a cash bargain–no discussion of growth or competitive advantage. You are playing a statistical game of reversion to the mean–how many puffs of the cigar will you get? Time is not on your side so you should size the position if you decide to invest. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzcWwmwChVE
Case Study here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/75684107/Case-Study-4-Clear-Investment-Thesis-Winmill-cash-Bargain