Tag Archives: CRR

Down and Dirty on CRR (Process of Search and Quick “Valuation”)

Debt_Lava

Prior post on Carbo Ceramics (CRR)

CRR 10Q Sept 30 2014

My process is to weed out companies to look at based on their financial characteristics. In an ideal world, you would not be able to tell what the market price of the shares are trading at when you scan the Value-Line for the company’s financial history.

It is irrelevant where the price has been–either vastly higher or lower–just what your sense of the value is based on the FINANCIAL characteristics of the business.  I am not implying that my way should be YOUR way. Find what works for you in your search/valuation process.

My “Down and Dirty” on CRR Down and Dirty on CRR on November 14

Summary

An OK business with a clean balance sheet and incentivized management (14.5% ownership) and no dilution in a highly cyclical business. Not a franchise but an asset based business which means no value for growth.

I have rock bottom tangible book value of $32—a probable ugly case scenario if oil keeps falling to ?? Who knows.

Then I have reproduction value of about $43 per share which coincides with the lowest 1.3 times book value the stock has traded over the past 15 years. $45.

Industry multiples of EV/EBITDA (8.6 xs) place the value at $60 to $65

Median to high price-to-book value is $80 to $170.   Throw out the past high price. So……………..

Hard rock is $32 TBV;  Replacement or reproduction value $43-45;  Industry multiples $60 to $65; Cash flow multiple 12 to 13 times = $55 to $65.

Median price to book value past 15 years is $82, round down to $80   

$32 on the extreme low side to $80.   

So before looking at annual report or competitors to refine my numbers, I have an idea that this business might be worth buying at or under replacement value of $45. A plan for me based on my psychology and obtaining a price under replacement value might be to allocate a percentage of capital to buy this company starting at $45 down to $30. Perhaps three scaled buy orders on descending price?  Will I have the guts to keep buying to my allocation when and if oil goes to $60 and the S&P is down 600 points in a day? Yes, place GTC orders after final work is done.

Head in sand

Worth going through the proxy and 10-K for any problems.

Time: 15 minutes.

Next…………………………………

CARBO CERAMICS INC: A short thesis back when CRR traded above $150.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND

So What is it worth? Carbo Ceramics (CRR)

paul-singer

 The consensus (bull case): The power of psychology is overwhelming, and investor sentiment indicates that asset prices are being driven higher by QE and Zirp, that the Fed can be trusted, and that we should not worry too much about the unintended consequences, because the Fed will be able to follow a path to normalization and a soft landing. In any event, America is now a safe haven and always will be a safe haven. Moreover, goes the case, we may be at the sweet spot of the economic cycle. It has taken a long time to get here, but finally we are getting sustainable growth, and we can expect more of the same, Interest rates are completely under control, in fact, long-term rates are in a secular decline, which is not nearly at its bottom. Inflation is virtually impossible, and we really ought to be worrying about deflation instead. If we focus on getting inflation higher, then growth will follow. The currency is also under control, goes this line of thinking, In fact, what could the dollar fall against? The competition is in much worse shape. Banks are in far better financial condition than in 2008 and will gradually bleed off any remaining toxic assets that they own. If anything starts to go wrong, the government will step in to fix it. Pushing investors out on the risk curve in search of yield is a good idea and a clever way to encourage them to do what they should be doing on their own (i.e., taking risks to help the ecobnomy grow).  We should not worry, because things will be okay. We can even trust the representative branches of government, because elected officials will not have to do much that is unplatable or challending–the central bankers have it all covered. Above all, trust the Fed.  –Paul Singer

Do the Lessons of History Apply?

So what’s it worth?

Carbo VL

Carbo 2013

Carbo Presentation Sept 2014

Please do a “down and dirty” valuation giving your assumptions within twenty minutes.  I will post mine tomorrow!

ATCE-2014-post2

 

PRIZE: A Date with my EX! for best valuation!