A conclusion is the place where you got tired of thinking. –Steven Wright
Every man who says frankly and fully what he things is so far doing a public service. We should be grateful to him for attacking most unsparingly our most cherished opinions. –Sir Leslie Stephen
Know The Global Crossing Case Cold
I joke while presenting the Global Crossing case, but you should spend time to really understand what happened and why. Always in these situations there is much noise and hoopla over new technology, massive growth, booming profits, etc. But you have to stand back to listen: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1INb5FM_1lE&feature=related. Obviously, growth does not occur without investment, and growth without profits is DESTRUCTIVE.
….And think strategically. A friend took out margin to buy a huge bundle of out of the money puts on Global Crossing and Level Three (LVLT). See the chart on LVLT here—the collapse will take your breath away. http://www.scribd.com/doc/77916697/Lvlt-Chart.
I asked him, “Are you out of your $%^&*! Mind? What the heck is the matter with you?” He replied serenely, “Have you ever read The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail by Clayton M. Christensen and the Disk Drive Industry?” http://www.readinggroupguides.com/guides_i/innovators_dilemma3.asp
“No,” I said, “I am too busy reading the Lehman report on Global Crossing.”
Research by Lehman on Telecom, Fiber Optics and Global Crossing 1998 http://goodbadstrategy.com/wp-content/downloads/LehmanReport.pdf
“Too bad,” he replied. “Because it is the same situation with the telecom companies only worse. (WHAT is the situation he is talking about____?) Ask yourself what is the WORST industry structure you could possibly design to destroy profits? Sometimes it is easier to know which companies will face certain death than pick the winners. Also, here is the coup de grace—what happens when marginal costs decline to $0.00!?”
One more time: “Can anyone tell me in two or three words what is the first thing when looking at a company/industry? _____ _____ ______
At the end of the weekend, there will be an analysis of the Global Crossing Case.
So what happened to my friend? Here he is: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmMS9nvi6eg&feature=related
At the age of 97 years and 4 months, Shigeaki Hinohara is one of the world’s longest-serving physicians and educators. His secrets to a healthy long life:
Podcast on Why We Get Fat by Gary Taubes: http://www.lewrockwell.com/lewrockwell-show/2012/01/11/247-why-we-get-fat-and-what-to-do-about-it/