If— A poem Phil Fisher kept by his bedside to emphasize independence of spirit and rationality/grace under pressure.
If you can keep your head when all about you
If you can keep your head when all about you
Munger’s Mental Models: http://robdkelly.com/blog/models-frameworks/munger-mental-models/
Lesson-on-Elementary-Worldly-Wisdom-Charlie-Munger
Another Great Blog: http://www.frankvoisin.com/ Search.
All things Montier: http://www.eurosharelab.com/james-montier-resource-page. Follow links to his 2002-2011 papers.
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Your boss says to put together a conservative portfolio, so naturally you start flipping through the Value-Line which you do religiously each week–glancing at every page of the 250 pages of Value-Line. You come across BDX_VL.
What two or three things do you notice? for a passing grade what ONE (1) metric should jump out at you! What pile would you put it–investigate, ignore, potential short?
Many “hedgies” and Wall Street “Analysts” miss this but YOU won’t.
Please keep replies short, two or three sentences at most. Prize emailed to the best response.
I wanted to see whether you picked out:
Value PER share has been rising and management is set to shrink the share count further at these “reasonable” prices. I can’t say that the current price is attractive for you because of your return requirements. Have reasonable expectations, since I doubt BDX will double in price in the next two years. However, I CAN say, based on the numbers that this company is more stable operationally, generates higher returns than most businesses and near term returns will be driven by return of capital over the next few years, so my risk might be lower–than the average company. Yet, the company is priced at or below a market multiple. Now, even if the long bond Treasury was 6% instead of 2.9%, would this be interesting? Yes.
If I can find 20 to 25 of these companies at moderate discounts (15% to 25%), I might be able to preserve my capital over time. These stable companies rarely provide steep discounts to intrinsic value, but you have the benefit of profitable growth over time. The price you pay, ironically, has to be more precise than when buying a micro-cap due to the moderate price discount.
Prizes will be emailed out. Thanks. Excellent responses. Please take my grades with a large dose of salt 🙂
Let me know if you enjoyed your prizes:
Gravity: http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=y4znJTziDg4&feature=endscreen
Bad Teacher: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=h6E0Shqba6g&NR=1
Posted in Investor Psychology, Search Strategies, Valuation Techniques, YOU
Tagged BDX, Montier, Value Blog, Voisin
I updated this post http://wp.me/p1PgpH-WC with two articles from Montier and Mauboussin on the Errors and Dangers of using the DCF approach.
Thanks to a reader in Norway!
I occasionally update prior posts with additional material so be aware that this blog is fluid.
Stein was the formulator of “Herbert Stein’s Law,” which he expressed as “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop,” by which he meant that if a trend (balance of payments deficits in his example) cannot go on forever, there is no need for action or a program to make it stop, much less to make it stop immediately; it will stop of its own accord.[2] It is often rephrased as: “Trends that can’t continue, won’t.”
Go read the full post on corporate profits here: http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2012/03/corporate-profits-continue-to-impress.html
Perhaps the market is already anticipating a reversion to the mean:
James Montier of GMO emphatically says reversion is inevitable. However, does that mean stocks will decline?
https://www.gmo.com/America/CMSAttachmentDownload.aspx?target=JUBRxi51IIBtbYEu0yy2D233
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Does anyone think EMT–say it fast five times as loud as you can, what do you hear–is like the BLACK KNIGHT?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhRUe-gz690
No matter what the evidence or facts against the theory, it is only a flesh wound?
Posted in Economics & Politics, Investing Gurus, Valuation Techniques
Tagged GMO, Margins, Montier, Reversion to the Mean