Tag Archives: Neiderhoffer

Readers in NYC: Robert Higgs, Historian and Austrian Economist, Speaking on Current Pol/Econ. Crisis

Tonight at 7:30 PM (sorry for such late notice), Mr. Higgs, Ph.d (history and economics), who is an expert on the Great Depression, will speak tonight in New York City at the JUNTO. His books like Crisis & Leviathan or Resurgence of the Warfare State, the Crisis Since 9/11 have an insightful grasp of both history and economics. For a 19 minute radio interview of Mr. Higgs discussing why the current recovery has been so sluggish and the historical context go here:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcFBoXgDsU0  Remember Charlie Munger’s Advice: Study History.  This man can teach it!

See you there if you can make it.

PLACE: At the Junto (started by Victor Niederhoffer) this evening (Thursday, April 5, 20102)

General Society Library, 20 West 44 St., between 5th and 6th Aves., NYC near the Grand Central Terminal

TIME: Admission Free — No reservation necessary * We’ll socialize from 7:00pm. * The meeting begins at ABOUT 7:30pm with a discussion of current issues and events. * The featured speaker is introduced at ABOUT 8:00pm. * The meeting will continue to ABOUT 10:00pm.

SPEAKER: Robert Higgs will speak on: “Likely Politico-economic Legacies of the Current Crisis”  He is a sr. fellow political economy, author “Leviathan” and many other books. He’s the editor of the Independent Institute’s quarterly magazine Independent Review. Here’s his bio, with links to his writing, multimedia, blog posts, presentations and working papers: tiny.cc/Higgs. In his Junto talk he’ll consider some of the most significant changes wrought by the economic crisis since 2008 and the government’s responses to it.  For the near term, some legacies are fairly certain; for the longer term, the legacies are less certain, but we may speculate about the possibilities and their effects on government and the economy.  His newest book will be released on May 1st. You can read about “Delusions of Power: New Explorations of the State, War, and Economy” at: tiny.cc/HiggsBook. Many of his presentations are available at YouTube: tiny.cc/HiggsVideo.  His three-hour appearance on C-SPAN’s “In Depth” program on Book TV is here, in three one-hour sections: tiny.cc/HiggsDepth.


Junto is a group that shares information
and discusses current issues...
plus presents speakers to talk with us:

Robert Higgs
"Likely Politico-economic Legacies of the Current Crisis"

Thursday, April 5th 7:30 PM Admission FREE 

DIRECTIONS: Subway: 4, 5, 6, S to Grand Central -- 42nd St.
 B, D, F, 7 to 42nd Street -- Sixth Ave. at Bryant Park
A, C, E, N, Q, R, S, 1, 2, 3 to Times Square -- 42nd St.

Bus: M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M42, M98, M101, M102, M104, Q32

Train: MTA Metro-North Railroad to Grand Central 

Car: Some private parking facilities in the area. Parking on
side streets is metered, limited to specific days and times.

Please note:
* Junto is not the usual sort of meeting with a long speech
followed by Q & A. Junto's invited speakers give a short
presentation and are challenged to defend their assertions.
* Discussions are intense, but polite. Participation by all attendees is highly encouraged. * Junto meets on the first Thursday of every month, at the
General Society Library, 20 West 44 St., NYC, between
5th and 6th Aves., near Grand Central Terminal

Visit Junto's site for information on current and past speakers,
read previous newsletters, to sign up for the Junto e-newsletter:
NYCjunto.com     Visit Junto on Facebook:

Sees Pricing and EOS; Book Rec; Too big NOT to fail; Crony Capitalism; Obama Speech in Context

Money talks. Chocolate sings!

QUESTION from a READER on Pricing and Economies of Scale

I was reading the PDF and I had a question about the early 
discussion related to pricing below competitor's costs
with a brand that demands a premium in the market. 
There was a suggestion that the premium
brand is not able to arbitrarily price higher 
above the shared costs of the industry and 
earn outsize profits because this would invite 
competition, whereas when they lower prices closer to 
competitor costs, they're still able to be profitable due 
to marketplace premium while denying competitors
(potential and actual) the profitability they'd need 
to be incentivized to enter and compete.
How has Warren Buffett been able to raise
prices continuously on See's candy?  His
competitors aren't continually raising prices on
their candy, are they? Why don't these price
increases become self-defeating and
invite competitors?  

You can see all comments on this post here: 

My Reply: Good question. In the example you mentioned, the same logic would apply to Sees Candy. I have extensive notes on Sees but trapped on a dead laptop.  The notes below have an analysis on Sees pricing. Read the PDF on Sees, and we can discuss further.


BOOK Recommendation

I rarely suggest investment books, but here is a thoroughly revised edition of a book that Joel Greenblatt recommends in his MBA classes: Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Psychological Edge by David Dreman.

I have read about a third of the book, and certainly any Contrarians out there should read the book.  For example, on page 179 there is a table of Analysts’ and Economists’ earnings growth estimates for the S&P 500, 1988-2006 (18 years)

                                Analysts                     Economists                        Actual

Average                         21%                                      18%                                    12%

Percentage Error    81%                                   53%                                     —       

Even a cynical observer of Wall Street like me can’t believe my eyes. How can analysts estimate on average 21% earnings growth? The odds of any company growing in excess of 15% per year for 10 years is almost infinitesimal.  Take common sense so we add an optimistic GDP growth rate of 4 percent a year plus nominal inflation rate of 6% and we have 10% earnings growth, How can analysts even think of 20% EPS growth?


Too big NOT to fail: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAxKAzpGmVA&feature=player_embedded

That leads us to David Stockman’s interview with Bill Moyers on CRONY CAPITALISM or Welcome to the USA today. http://billmoyers.com/segment/david-stockman-on-crony-capitalism/

The Blow-up Artist. Victor Neiderhoffer interview on being wrong. http://www.scribd.com/doc/79358509/Niederhoffer-Discusses-Being-Wrong