Tag Archives: volatility

The Stoics and Investing; Volatility and the Prisoner’s Dilemma


The Stoics

Stoics understood that if negative emotions such as anger, envy, greed, fear, and grief plague your life, then soundness and peace of mind will elude you. Serentiy in the midst of adversity–which is hardly the same thing as the modern, Western and secular notion of “happiness”–is a necessary condition of a well-lived life.

nov15_newsletter-1 How the Stoic Philosophers influenced Ben Graham

feb16_newsletter-2 Part 2



Volatility at World’s End or the Alchemy of Risk

Volatility at World’s End

Deflation, Hyperinflation and the Alchemy of Risk

Artemis Capital Q12012_Volatility at World’s End

The above 18 page report will help you understand how huge debts can either cause deflation or hyperinflation. A thought-provoking read that I highly recommend.


Earlier I posted on hyperinflation here:http://wp.me/p1PgpH-1h

When NO ONE accepts a fiat currency then the inflation is infinite. No amount of paper currency–even by the ton–will be used as a medium of exchange. ….Back to barter we would go until a new medium of exchange is found or used.

Current Market Situation



Video on Volatility, Buffett Partnership Letters, Blog and Podcast Links

Buffett’s Partnership Letters

A reader alerted me that this blog has no link to Buffett’s original partnership letters. For shame, here they are:

Links to each original letter: http://www.rbcpa.com/WEB_letters/WEB_Letters_pre_berkshireTURNEDOFF.html

Newly typed Consolidated Letters for easier reading (suggested for ease of study)Complete_Buffett_partnership_letters-1957-70_in Sections

Readings and Videos in Economics



Video on Boone Pickens discussing Natural Gas: http://martinkronicle.com/2012/05/02/boone-pickens-pickens-plan-natural/

Developing skills and understanding your own foibles–Trader and Stock Blogs http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/trader_development.htm  Search for topics of interest.  Often trading blogs focus on the psychological aspects of trading since traders make many more discrete decisions than long-term investors, thus trading blogs can be of use to understanding how we make decisions under pressure and uncertainty.

Recent CNBC Munger Interview http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000088395

Podcast on Steve Case’s book, The Indomitable Investor. Why people on main street do not understand how Wall Street works. His main point, “Bad investors think of ways to make money and good investors think of ways not to lose money.” http://martinkronicle.com/2012/04/02/steve-sears-indomitable-investor/

www.greenbackd.com is back posting with great articles on Greenblatt’s Magic Formula and more.

Fascinating 5 minute Video on Stock Market Volatility:

Artemis Capital Management LLC is pleased to present “Volatility at World’s End: Two Decades of Movement in Markets” a unique visualization of implied and realized stock market volatility from 1990 to 2011. The video was originally shown as part of Christopher Cole’s speech at the 2012 Global Derivatives and Risk Management Conference in Barcelona Spain on April 17th.

The movement of stock prices has been an obsession for generations of speculators and traders. On a higher level mathematicians believe that modern markets are an extension of the same fractal beauty found in nature. Visualized these stock markets may take the shape of a turbulent ocean with waves made of human hopes, dreams, greed, and fear. Merging the world of high-finance and high-art Artemis Capital Management LLC is proud to present a creative visualization of stock market volatility over the last two decades.

Volatility at World’s End: Two Decades of Movement in Markets is a depiction of real stock market volatility using trading data from 1990 to 2011. The visuals are designed from S&P 500 index option data replicating the implied volatility wave (or variance swap curve) extending to an expiration of one year. The front of the volatility wave contains the same data used to calculate the CBOE VIX index. The movement of this wave demonstrates changing trader expectations of the future stock market volatility. As the wave moves through time the expected (or implied) volatility surface transforms into a realized volatility surface derived from historical S&P 500 index movement. The transition represents what professional traders call “volatility arbitrage”. The color variation in the volatility waves show the volatility-of-volatility or internal movement of the wave. The track underneath the volatility wave represents underlying S&P 500 index prices.

Volatility at World’s End: Two Decades of Movement in Markets VIDEO (5 minutes) http://www.artemiscm.com/research/volitility-at-worlds-end-two-decades-of-movement-in-markets/