Abstract
This address considers the epidemiology of narratives relevant to economic fluctuations. The human brain has always been highly tuned towards narratives, whether factual or not, to justify ongoing actions, even such basic actions as spending and investing. Stories motivate and connect activities to deeply felt values and needs. Narratives “go viral” and spread far, even worldwide, with economic impact. The 1920-21 Depression, the Great Depression of the 1930s, the so-called “Great Recession” of 2007-9 and the contentious political-economic situation of today, are considered in view of the popular narratives of their respective times. Though these narratives are deeply human phenomena that are difficult to study in a scientific manner, quantitative analysis may help us gain a better understanding of these epidemics in the future.
- Expert opinion – Howard Marks
- Easy games – Michael Mauboussin
- Echoes from Africa – Bill Gross
- Trends in real estate – Roschelle et al.
- Pabrai interview – Pysh and Brodersen
- Dalio interview – Henry Blodget
- Apple TV anniversary – Ben Thompson
- Two types of knowledge – Ben Carlson
- The art of seeding talent – James Williams
- An expert called Lindy – Nassim Taleb
- iPhone product study – Max Olson
https://youtu.be/3yOeeZIplV8 A trader DESTROYS a false guru. A lesson in chart reading/technical analysis and ignorant hope. Funny in parts!
A Speculator Laments–a brutal, honest introspection.
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