“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.” Voltaire
Absolute return small cap investing https://www.thefelderreport.com/2017/05/30/podcast-eric-cinnamond-on-the-value-of-absolute-return-investing/
“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.” Voltaire
Absolute return small cap investing https://www.thefelderreport.com/2017/05/30/podcast-eric-cinnamond-on-the-value-of-absolute-return-investing/
HUI represents unhedged miners. In January 2016, the HUI dipped to $99.13 then rose 2.84 xs to $286 when the $BPGDM, Bullish Percentage Index, was less than 15%. Then in mid-July the bullish percentage was 100%! Prices dipped, but then made a marginal new high. Sentiment is not an EXACT timing device. Now, the index is near 7% bullish after a 37% decline and four months. Talk about swings in sentiment. Buy high and sell low. Interest rates are rising, gold is falling, the dollar rising, so who would be in the stupid 7%?
Update: Nov. 27th, 2016
As of Nov. 27th, not every data point shows a turn in the gold market, but bearishness quite high. https://monetary-metals.com/good-news-and-bad-news-report-27-november-2016/
gold-stocks-bullish-sentiment-nov-16th-2016 Assuming you have found cheap, well-capitalized miners, developers and/or explorers, there is a time to buy and a time to sell. I think this is a time to be greedy when others are fearful. Also, if this was a sell-off after a long bull market (not a six month rally) where large amounts of capital investment entered mining, then bullishness might be less warranted. ey-m-a-exchange-performance-comparison Place information into context. A good read: commodity-resource-stocks An investment only a mother could love.
Positive Signs: Juniors holding better than Senior Producers
As deep value contrarians, we aren’t able to have absolute certainty, but we can put probability on our side along with the laws of supply and demand. If you don’t feel ill when buying your resource stocks, then don’t do it. Forcing yourself through the fear (assuming you have done your homework) to ACT, is the key.
Investors fleeing the miners over the past few weeks
Update Nov. 30th 2016
If we are in a bull market, then a healthy position, but more to go if we are in a bear market. But base metals continue to show strength.
Recent headlines imply near total bearishness:
The worst is yet to come. At least that’s the opinion of the top two gold forecasters who say bullion will suffer further losses in 2017 as interest rates climb and the dollar strengthens.
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. and ABN Amro Group NV see gold sliding to $1,100 an ounce by the end of next year as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, real Treasury yields increase and the U.S. currency rises. Prices were at $1,185.77 Wednesday. The banks were ranked first and second as forecasters in the third quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
After briefly soaring to $1,337.38 as it became clear that Donald Trump was about to pull off a shock victory in the U.S. presidential election, gold slumped to a nine-month low of $1,171.18 last week on speculation that his pledges to increase spending and revitalize the economy would boost interest rates and augment the attraction of other investments such as stocks and bonds.
“From an investor point of view there is little reason to hold gold,” said Georgette Boele, a currency and commodity strategist at ABN Amro. “Rising inflation expectations are more than countered by the rise in U.S. Treasury yields and expectations about upcoming rate hikes by the Fed. As long as real yields rise and there are no major inflation fears, prices will go lower.”
Global bond yields have climbed to 1.58 percent from a record low 1.07 percent in July, according to the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index. The odds of the Federal Reserve hiking in December are 100 percent, up from 69 percent a month ago, before the election, and a gauge of the dollar against its major peers surged to the highest level since at least 2005 last week.
Gold is set for its worst month in more than three years, with investors dumping bullion at the fastest pace since 2013. Assets in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds have shrunk 5.3 percent in November, the biggest monthly drop since June of that year. Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller sold all his gold on election night. “All the reasons I owned it for the last couple of years seem to be ending,” he said in a CNBC interview shortly after the vote.
In the month through Monday, investors pulled $4.4 billion from exchange-traded funds backed by precious metals, the biggest redemption among all asset classes offered in such funds globally that are tracked by Bloomberg. Money is moving out of gold and other precious metals as U.S. equities rally to a record and traders boost bets on further rate increases.
Boele from ABN Amro sees the negative environment for gold continuing into next year, with a recovery for prices expected in 2018. The bank cut its prediction for the end of 2017 from $1,150. Before the U.S. election, Boele was already bearish, lowering her outlook in October.
Barnabas Gan, an economist at OCBC in Singapore, was predicting $1,100 by the end of next year before the U.S. election. He kept to that view in a note on Monday and cut his call for the end of this year to $1,200 from $1,300. He’s factoring in three rates hikes — one in December and two in 2017 — which will drag bullion down to his target by the end of next year.
“Political uncertainties continue to persist,” Gan said. “Note the upcoming Italian referendum as well as next year’s French election. Contrast this with the relative certainty over U.S. economic growth under President-elect Trump’s proposed fiscal plans which gives rise to reflationary and higher U.S. rates expectations into 2017.”
While Gan and Boele already saw lower prices for next year before the U.S. election, a Trump win was interpreted as bullish in a Bloomberg survey of more than 20 traders and analysts published before the vote. A victory for the Republican was seen pushing Comex gold futures to $1,395 within a week. Instead, the reverse happened.
Not everyone is bearish going into 2017. Bullion may average $1,300 next year, says Robin Bhar, head of metals research at Societe Generale SA in London, the third-best gold forecaster in the data compiled by Bloomberg.
“All in all, gold prices are at the mercy of risk appetite. Buying on dips is likely to provide support given a view that gold is a good portfolio diversifier, hedge, insurance policy,” Bhar said in an e-mail last week. At the same time, he acknowledged the downside risks because changes in fiscal policy could push real interest rates higher, offsetting haven demand.
Bloomberg hating on gold. “Looks like a short”, “Nothing uglier”, “Not even an asset”…AFTER miners drop 90%.
“The Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shares, or DUST, is up a whopping 99 percent in July.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-24/these-leveraged-etfs-show-just-how-bad-the-commodities-crash-has-been … via @EricBalchunas
Grant on gold July 22 2015 Zweig The same analyst who suggested buying miners within 1% of the all-time top in Sept. 17, 2011 now says gold is a “doorstop” in July 17, 2015. NOW, he tells me! Journalists chase price and sentiment.
Media piles on late in trend:
Perhaps today the absurdity has reached the apex of its crescendo with this utterly ridiculous “letter to gold bug” published by Marketwatch: It’s time to surrender and let the yellow metal fall to its bear market low
How analysts react after Amazon reports–follow the herd recommendations regardless of price. Analysis?
The headlines reported that AMZN’s sales were up 20% year over year for Q2 and that net income had swung from a loss of $123mm to a profit of $92 million yr/yr for Q2. While those numbers are what they are, sales growth from Q1 to Q2 was a mere 2.9% – pretty much in-line with the rate of inflation.
The media propagandists attributed AMZN’s highly “surprising” quarter to big gains in its AWS business segment, which is its cloud-computing business. However, if we drill down into the numbers made available in its 8-K, we find that the AWS segment represents just 7.7% of AMZN’s revenue stream vs. 6.6% of revenues in Q1. Sure seems like a lot of manic hype over well less than 10% of AMZN’s business model.
As it turns out, AMZN’s AWS business model, like everything else it does, is seeded in low quality sources of revenue that will ultimately prove to be unsustainable. Why? See this comment sent to me by someone who read my Amazon research report and who used to specialize in high tech accounting for Silicon Valley start-ups:
I audited many of the high fliers that crashed and burned, took companies public & was at the printers the day the bubble really burst which ultimately tabled that IPO…Amazon Web Services is growing by leaps and bounds and a significant amount of those $’s are coming from venture backed start-ups. Almost the entire Silicon Valley and other startups outside the Valley use AWS. Venture backed startups have exploded just as AWS revenues have exploded…That segment of their business will get walloped which right now seems to be a main source of their operating income.
Read more: Dot con
Notice the difference between mining stocks and Amazon–Deja-Vu of the late 1999’s/2000. Remember the music Sugar Ray
An Epic Bear Market in miners
Mining securities are not the thing for widows and orphans or country clergymen, or unworldly people of any kind to own. But for a businessman, who must take risks in order to make money; who will buy nothing without careful, thorough investigation; and who will not risk more than he is able to lose, there is no other investment in the market today as tempting as mining stock.” – Charles H. Dow (1879)
There is NO REASON to own gold! (NOW, they tell us!)
Global dollar stress might be causes gold price crashes.
The “price action” for gold is bad! The price of gold went down.
Why not be happy and say that the dollar buys you more gold because of this:
The holders of physical bullion are not selling, but futures traders are–see the red line rising which is the co-basis. If I hold gold in stock, but sell futures to lock in the price, then co-basis represents the difference between the bid price for spot and the offer price for futures. Leveraged futures traders are selling futures but bullion holders are not de-stocking (selling). The selling in gold futures has brought epic extremes in prices of miners relative to gold/silver. EPIC quantitative easing may be a factor.
Video: Sellers in action:SELL ‘EM!
Does Gold represent good “value?”
Only you can answer that question. Don’t confuse gold (money) as an investment. If you couldn’t find a margin of safety in the current stock market, you might own gold because you believe gold relative to dollars is safer, holds purchasing power better, more stable, etc.
For those technical wizards out there, note that silver did not “confirm” the price decline in gold yesterday.
Just remember (thanks www.monetray-metals.com)
What multiples and metrics to use for different industries?
A reader struggles with how to value cyclical industries. First you have to understand the particular industry. How to do that–read the reports and financials of dozens of companies in that industry, then note what is important to value such a business. Take several months. If you are looking at highly-cyclical businesses, then you should read : Skousen-Structure-production.pdf.
Note how long the cycles are in the gold mining industry. A mine may take a year or two to close or years to open. From discovery of the deposit until extraction may take a decade or more. A gold miner is valued on production, reserves, cost to extract, etc.
Now if you have access to a Bloomberg (expensive!) or go to a library and look at Value-Line, Moody’s Manuals, or industry articles of the industry. You can scrub around the Internet, but you have to grind through company reports to get a feel. Obviously, “heavy industries” require analysis of tangible book, replacement value, capital costs, industry capacity and utilization–note what happened in the airline industry when capacity was taken off-line. Go to search box and read my post on CRR, Carbo-ceramics–below TBV and replacement value, for example.
Gold Sentiment (CEF)
The above shows the extreme negativity in the gold market. You can buy the Canadian Closed-End Fund (CEF) at a 10% to 11% discount to gold (60% of assets) and silver (40%) approximately. Gold and silver have no counter-party risk. Such is the world of closed-end funds. Note the 20% premiums during bull runs!
The absurdity of gold stock valuations is illustrated by Kinross. Consistently improving operations with $5.30 book value and with no value attributed to their Russian mine. Net-debt-to-EBITDA of 1.28 with their debt covenants being 3.5xs to 1. Cash of $879 million. 1.14 billion outstanding shares. 27 cents of operating cash flow this quarter share, up 22%. A 2.6 to 2.7 million gold equivalent oz. producer. $698 cash costs and $919 All-in Sustaining Cash Cost. They can survive at $1,000. Below $1,000 operations would be reduced. Of course, Kinross represents a trifecta of hatred: poor past acquisitions (declining stock price), the gold market, and some Russian assets.
Basically, the market is heavily discounting their assets because the market is assuming sub-$1,000 gold. No value given to their Russian mine.
KINROSS RESULTS 3Q 2014
You should listen to the Kinross conference call
Mining is a crappy business
Miners at or near ALL-TIME (past 90 years) low of stock price to gold price. Part of the reason for the decoupling is the time to find new deposits and place them into production has gone from five to six years out to ten years. Mining costs hve not been kept in check until recently. Past mining managements made poor capital allocation decisions. A mine is a depleting asset! But the market has had four years to replace managements and adjust.
Current sentiment in the gold miners ZERO (0). The recommended allocation is Zero. Contrarians take note but you better have a strong stomach in the near-term.
But what you need to focus on is not so much the nominal price but the REAL price of gold. 15% or more of the costs of a mine are energy based.
That said, do your own thinking and use this as a case study of where to look for negative sentiment. The question is…..are you being paid enough for the risks?
Can gold go to $800? Sure and Kinross and other miners will be closing down many of their operations or even going bankrupt. But consider what $800 gold would mean in a world choking on debt! Perhaps stocks might not hold up in a deflationary bust! It is not just the gold price but the real gold price that matters to miners. However, nominal gold prices in US dollars matter to miners that have debt denominated in US dollars.
Just never buy one miner because of the risks to any one company. Use the EXTREME price volatility to your advantage. Don’t buy the stock all at once. If you need to diversify and have limited capital, then SGDM might be a choice–IF you think owning miners is the lowest cost way to participate in either a deflationary bust or inflationary response by the Fed. Otherwise, CEF (above) might be a cheap form of insurance to monetary mayhem.
Miners in a capitulation phase–crashing on huge volume–after four year price decline. Folks have had enough. Money managers in forced liquidation?
Just remember that you are trying to buy assets at extremely low prices since this is not a franchise. A mine is a DEPLETING asset. How much money goes into a mine versus what is sold discounted by your cost of capital.
Obviously, with a cyclical asset you will find losses and the widest spread between price and financial operating metrics because a trough occurs in a bear market of declining product prices. The reverse occurs at the top of a cycle–huge revenues and profits during the boom. So you MUST sell–this is a “burning” match not a franchise. Burn this into your brain.
Paul Singer on “illogical” market trends: http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/11/paul-singer-q3-2014-letter/
I disagree with Mr. Singer because the bubble in confidence in central planning by the Fed means extreme trends. For example, massive printing of money will cause LOWER gold prices because the market sees perpetual support of financial assets. Why own gold when equities will NEVER drop more than 10% in our lifetimes. Thus, massive monetary intervention is bearish for gold. Of course, house prices could NEVER fall nation-wide and the Internet Bubble ushered in a new normal. Timing is impossible.
THIS IS WHAT IT FEELS LIKE TO OWN MINERS THIS PAST MONTH–Please no women or children to click on this link! http://youtu.be/82RTzi5Vt7w?t=1m52s
Gold, Inflation Expectations and Economic Confidence
Wednesday November 05, 2014 11:29
Below is an excerpt from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com on 2nd November 2014. Excerpts from our newsletters and other comments on the markets can be read at our blog: http://tsi-blog.com/
As a result of what happened during just one of the past twenty decades (the 1970s), most people now believe that a large rise in “price inflation” or inflation expectations is needed to bring about a major rally in the gold price. This impression of gold is so ingrained that it has persisted even though the US$ gold price managed to rise by 560% during 2001-2011 in parallel with only small increases in “price inflation” (based on the CPI) and inflation expectations. The reality is that gold tends to perform very well during periods of declining confidence in the financial system, the economy and/or the official money, regardless of whether the decline in confidence is based on expectations of higher “inflation” or something else entirely.
Inflation expectations are certainly part of the gold story, but only to the extent that they affect the real interest rate. For example, a 2% rise in inflation expectations would only result in a more bullish backdrop for gold if it were accompanied by a rise of less than 2% in the nominal interest rate. For another example, a 1% decline in inflation expectations would not result in a more bearish backdrop for gold if it were accompanied by a decline of more than 1% in the nominal interest rate.
Other parts of the gold story include indicators of economic confidence and financial-market liquidity, such as credit spreads and the yield curve.
That large rises in the gold price are NOT primarily driven by increasing fear of “inflation” is evidenced by the fact that the large multi-year gold rallies of 2001-2006 and 2008-2011 began amidst FALLING inflation expectations. These rallies were set in motion by substantial stock market declines and plummeting confidence in central banks, commercial banks and the economy’s prospects. Even during the 1970s, the period when the gold price famously rocketed upward in parallel with increasing fear of “inflation”, the gold rally was mostly about declining real interest rates and declining confidence in both monetary and fiscal governance. After all, if the official plan to address a “price inflation” problem involves fixing prices and distributing “Whip Inflation Now” buttons, and at the same time the central bank and the government are experimenting with Keynesian demand-boosting strategies, then there’s only one way for economic confidence to go, and that’s down.
Since mid-2013 there have been a few multi-month periods when it appeared as if economic confidence was turning down, but on each occasion the downturn wasn’t sustained. This is due in no small part to the seemingly unstoppable advance in the stock market. In the minds of many people the stock market and the economy are linked, with a rising stock market supposedly being a sign of future economic strength. This line of thinking is misguided, but regardless of whether it is right or wrong the perception is having a substantial effect on the gold market.
For now, the economic confidence engendered to a large extent by the rising stock market is putting irresistible downward pressure on the gold price.
As Gold Rises; Gold Miners Fall Down By Johanna Bennett
The price of gold may be rising, but gold mining stocks are getting hammered today. And do you know why?
They are still stocks. (What does THAT mean?)
On the heels of yesterday’s late-day price surge, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), of fell more than 4.5% amid a broader market selloff that sent the Dow dropping more than 300 points and the S&P 500 declining almost 2%.
The dovish minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting have gold bugs buzzing. The precious metal touched a two-week high today, amid easing concerns that the Fed is near to raising interest rates, reviving gold as an inflation hedge.
Gold prices rallied to $1,234 a troy ounce, their highest level since Sept. 23, a day after minutes from the Fed’s September policy meeting revealed officials were worried weaker growth in Asia and Europe could curtail U.S. exports. The central bank also highlighted a stronger dollar as a barrier to U.S. inflation climbing toward the Fed’s 2% target, stoking hopes for a sustained period of low interest rates.
The most actively traded contract, for December delivery, was ended the day at $1,225.10 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $19.10, or 1.59% after earlier today climbing as high as $1,380.
But while worries regarding a weak economy can lift gold prices they can squeeze gold mining companies. GDX has plunged more than 60% over the past two years with the likes of Barrick Gold (ABX) falling more than 65% during that same time span and Newmont Mining (NEM) falling 59%.
The above is an article from an “elite” financial publication (Barrons) where the theme is that miners are being hurt/squeezed because they are stocks. I ask my readers how are miners hurt LONG-TERM (the next decade) if the REAL price of gold is rising? Sure miners may have been sold today due to leveraged investors selling to go into cash, but how does that “squeeze” the mining business if gold is risng RELATIVE to input costs like crude oil and commodities? Mining is a spread business. You make money on the spread between input costs and output revenues. Never take what you read on face value.
Miners realtive to gold in the chart above.
Four Boom and Bust Cycles and the Implications for today’s Cycle (Microdocumentary)
This microdocumentary video examines in detail 4 major booms in the last 100 years and explains how monetary policy and interest rate manipulation has led to the inevitable bust:
http://www.safehaven.com/article/35401/microdocumentary-the-truth-about-boom-and-bust-cycles A bit simplistic, but a good introduction to the dangers of excess credit growth.
Rap Video on the Boom Bust Cycle or Hayek vs. Keynes
Above is a chart of CEF, Canadien Gold (60%) and Silver (40%) bullion closed-end fund trading at a 6.5% discount today. ON SALE! I have no clue if tomorrow the price will be higher or lower.
Note the premiums as high as 10% and currently 6.5% discount.
Learn more about interpretating sentiment indicators: www.acting-man.com
Long term sentiment
A Great blog, Down the Rabbit Hole: http://biiwii.com/wordpress/2014/09/10/sentiment-shifting-gold-bugs/
Though, I like miners more, but now is a good time to pick up tangible money at a discount. Pay 94 cents and get a dollar of gold and silver today–I will take it. SOLD! Miners make money on the arbitrage between their input costs and output prices. You don’t need a rising nominal gold price; you need a rising REAL gold price.
Now is the time for me to post on Yamana (by this weekend, I pray) because it is at a price $7.33 that I have purchased in the past and it may be a reasonable choice for a BASKET of miners.
Also, you want to see analysts pile-on negatively AFTER price has fully dicounted the news. I am not being contrarian or cynical, it is just how markets work–they DISCOUNT.
Read the link below and the link within it to gain more understanding on gold and miners.
The above represents my understanding of INFLATION, not prices rising. Prices may or not rise depending upon supply/demand for goods and currency. Usually, as the supply of currency increases much faster than the production of goods and services, then prices rise or the value of the currency declines.
Thanks to www.acting-man.com and www.zerohedge.com
The first secret to success is discipline; the second is being able to buy or sell when almost everyone else is telling you to do the opposite.
Why the idea that miners can’t earn money at $1,200 gold is absurd.
Agnico Eagle reports third quarter 2013 results – Strong operational performance leads to record quarterly gold production and positive revision to 2013 guidance.
Miners are bottoming.
Tonight when I have 30 minutes, I will post links to all the folders that contain videos so folks will have fresh links and one place to find them. Check back tomorrow.