A Reader’s Question: What Determines the Price of Gold?

Gold Picture

If those who believe in the value of gold r “gold bugs”, believers in value of financial assets must be “paper bugs” – “bond bugs”, “stock bugs”..

Simon Mikhailovich @S_Mikhailovich · Nov 14

Money is a medium of exchange. That means money is the thing that people ask for in return when they supply goods and services to the market. You often see money being defined as something having three properties: medium of exchange, store of value and unit of account. But my view – and this is in agreement with Austrian school economists Menger and von Mises – is that store of value and unit of account are not the definitional properties, they are derivative properties that money has because of its function as a medium of exchange. There can be other goods in the economy that function as a store value but not as a medium of exchange, like property for example. And I would include gold in that category. It is a store of value, maybe superior to the performance of money proper in that respect.–Robert Blumen

The goal of this post is to understand how prices are set for goods that are not consumed like gold or stock certificates.   This is a follow-up to a prior post on Goldbugs http://wp.me/p2OaYY-2Av.

Many analysts covering the gold market lack a basic understanding of reservation demand.  Most gold market research is based on the premise that the supply side of the market can be characterized by the quantity supplied and demand side by the quantity demanded. The specific cause and effect relationship between these two variables and price is often unstated; and perhaps rightfully so: is it not obvious that a greater quantity demanded is the cause of a higher price, and that a greater quantity supplied is responsible for a lower price?

NO!

Market forecasts based on quantities of gold are meaningless. “Gold demand was up by 15% in 2012.” are true but only if they are understood in a misleading sense. The supply and demand sides of the market consist of supply and demand schedules, not quantities. A price forecast based on quantities is a non sequitur because there is no causal connection from the quantities to the price. This error has side-tracked the majority of analysts into an obsessive focus on quantities while ignoring the actual drivers of the price. 

Read: Misunderstanding-Gold-Demand (1) and for more examplesWhat determines the price of gold  Then to reinforce the concepts, Rothbard shows in detail how supply and demand schedules are derived from individual preference rankings in Man, Economy , and State starting with his discussion in Chapter 2, sections 4-5 and Chapter 2, Section 8: Stock and Total Demand to Hold, and then later as applied to money in Chapter 11 (Money and its Purchasing Power) Sections 2-5.  Link here: http://mises.org/library/man-economy-and-state-power-and-market

If you grasp the readings above, you will have a greater understanding than many professional gold analysts. I am willing to take bets on this. Takers?

Then you will not waste your time reading the nonsensical: Global-gold-demand-will-overwhelm-the-manipulators Nathan Mcdonald-sprott-money-news

However, even if you agree/disagree with an analyst’s conclusion, you will know whether the premises are logical if not yet determined to be correct.

Revisiting the Goldman Sachs $1050oz gold forecast/

You might even be able to understand where a forecaster went wrong in their analysis: Eric Sprott sees gold at new high before year-end/

Debt grew and central banks printed so why did the price decline in gold from 2011 to today (Nov. 25, 2014)?

Gold wasn’t always in the dumps.  It rose right along with equities, indeed outperformed equities, from the 2009 Great Recession bottom – when central banks the world over first began implementing their unconventional monetary policies – straight through to its September 2011 top.  The reason we think it did is quite simple.  Coming out of the Great Recession, central bank credibility – their ability to “pull us out” of the Recession – was being severely questioned by investors. Thus, a good portion of investor money found its way into gold. That changed in 2011. Underwritten by these same central bank easy money policies, the as yet unresolved malinvestments of the Housing Bubble turn Credit Bust turn Great Recession, which were in the process of a healthy liquidation, were short circuited, while new, yet to be revealed malinvestments (we think the largest being anything in and around financial engineering) were starting to bear fruit.  The belief took hold that the heroic policies of these central banks were finally working, finally restoring long-term vitality to the economy. Gold then sunk while equities marched ever higher.

So here we are… http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpollaro/2014/10/12/central-bank-credibility-the-equity-markets-and-gold/

Spend the time to understand how prices are set/determined and you will avoid faulty analysis and think better for yourself.

HAVE A HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

Valuing Growth

gravity

 Valuing growth is an art.  The readings below will help you think about how to assess growth in your valuation.

Greenwald_2005_Inv_Process_Pres_Gabelli in London This lecture places valuing growth in the overall context of value investing.

Greenwald-Class-Notes-5-Liz-Claiborne-Valuing-Growth-2  See pages 10 through 14 for a discussion on valuing growth.

Growth Stocks and the Petersburg Paradox

St Petersburg Paradox and Tech Stocks 2000

Ben_Graham_and_the_Growth_Investor_Bryant_College_041008

A Method of Valuing Growth Stocks

Newer Methods for Valuing Growth Stocks_1962_Security Analysis  Ben Graham tackles a tough subject.

Comments on the 15 Growth Illusion

When Growth Stalls

The Fallacy of Goldbugs or Understanding the Law of Supply and Demand

Gold Bugs

F. A. Hayek: “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about they imagine they can design.”

 

As a preview to understand how the law of demand and supply works see Trading Places in the Pits  Hint: Are there more buyers than sellers?

Thus you can explain the fallacy of Eric Sprott’s sentiment that demand is overwhelming supply:

We see almost 60 tons a week being delivered on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Well, you start annualizing 60 tons a week you’re talking 3,000 tons a year now. We saw 94 tons of gold go into India in September. We saw the Russian Central Bank buy 37 tons of gold in September. I mean I could come up with numbers that might suggest that we’ve got 400 tons a week of demand. And we only got 230 tons a week of mine supply. And I’ve only gotten to three data points. I haven’t even gone to the rest of the world.

We’ve now created a situation unfortunately in the market where between high frequency trading and algorithms and interference by the planers they can make things happen that looks like everything is OK. And it’s the “OK” part where I think we can really relate to gold not being allowed to go up. Because that’s the canary in the coal mine. If gold was above $2,000 we’d all be wondering: What the hell is going on here?  And so they haven’t allowed it to happen.

But by suppressing the price – and one of the great things about a price of $1,100/oz is that you can buy a lot of gold at $1,100 versus $1,900 — you can buy almost 50%-60% more gold than you could three years ago with the same amount of money. And you can buy 3x the silver. With the same amount of money!

http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/88731/eric-sprott-global-gold-demand-overwhelming-supply  35 minute podcast.

Of course, demand must equal supply or supply equal demand at a CLEARING PRICE.  Go to pages 137 to 138 to understand Reservation Demand (critical in understanding a high stock to flow good like gold) Man Economy and State by Rothbard

If you don’t understand price moves against you, then scream manipulation on price declines. But where was the “manipulation” from 2000 to 2011 while gold rose in price vs. the U.S. Dollar by 1,600 dollars!  You are a fool either way. You trade in a rigged market or you complain that you are buying a good that is artificially depressed. You are subsidized to buy gold at “below” market (read manipulated) prices yet you complain.

The amount that a seller will withhold on the market is termed their reservation demand. This is not, like the demand for a a good in exchange, this is a demand to hold stock.  Thus, the concept of a “demand to hold a stock of goods” will always include both demand factors, it will include the demand for the good in exchange by nonpossessors, plus the demand to hold the stock by the possessors.

I strongly suggest that if you wish to improve as an investor that you read Rothbard’s book along with the free study guide.  The implication that demand is overwhelming supply with a falling price is absurd!  Yet, Goldbugs howl incessantly that the price is being suppressed since demand is “overwhelming supply.”  Nonsense, everything equals AT A PRICE.

Did you view the video of trading places above? Where was Louis’ Reservation Demand? SELL 200 APRIL ORANGE JUICE AT 142!

Most analysts do not understand the law of supply and demand

Does the Monetary Base Drive the Gold Price?

ECB-could-buy-gold-to-revive-economy.html  Will that work?

Low UAE gold prices set off buying surge  Does that imply rising prices?

gold_MB_since2002_081014

 

Gold wasn’t always in the dumps.  It rose right along with equities, indeed outperformed equities, from the 2009 Great Recession bottom – when central banks the world over first began implementing their unconventional monetary policies – straight through to its September 2011 top.  The reason we think it did is quite simple.  Coming out of the Great Recession, central bank credibility – their ability to “pull us out” of the Recession – was being severely questioned by investors. Thus, a good portion of investor money found its way into gold. That changed in 2011. Underwritten by these same central bank easy money policies, the as yet unresolved malinvestments of the Housing Bubble turn Credit Bust turn Great Recession, which were in the process of a healthy liquidation, were short circuited, while new, yet to be revealed malinvestments (we think the largest being anything in and around financial engineering) were starting to bear fruit.  The belief took hold that the heroic policies of these central banks were finally working, finally restoring long term vitality to the economy. Gold then sunk while equities marched ever higher. So here we are…

http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpollaro/2014/10/12/central-bank-credibility-the-equity-markets-and-gold/

Gold Bars

Down and Dirty on CRR (Process of Search and Quick “Valuation”)

Debt_Lava

Prior post on Carbo Ceramics (CRR)

CRR 10Q Sept 30 2014

My process is to weed out companies to look at based on their financial characteristics. In an ideal world, you would not be able to tell what the market price of the shares are trading at when you scan the Value-Line for the company’s financial history.

It is irrelevant where the price has been–either vastly higher or lower–just what your sense of the value is based on the FINANCIAL characteristics of the business.  I am not implying that my way should be YOUR way. Find what works for you in your search/valuation process.

My “Down and Dirty” on CRR Down and Dirty on CRR on November 14

Summary

An OK business with a clean balance sheet and incentivized management (14.5% ownership) and no dilution in a highly cyclical business. Not a franchise but an asset based business which means no value for growth.

I have rock bottom tangible book value of $32—a probable ugly case scenario if oil keeps falling to ?? Who knows.

Then I have reproduction value of about $43 per share which coincides with the lowest 1.3 times book value the stock has traded over the past 15 years. $45.

Industry multiples of EV/EBITDA (8.6 xs) place the value at $60 to $65

Median to high price-to-book value is $80 to $170.   Throw out the past high price. So……………..

Hard rock is $32 TBV;  Replacement or reproduction value $43-45;  Industry multiples $60 to $65; Cash flow multiple 12 to 13 times = $55 to $65.

Median price to book value past 15 years is $82, round down to $80   

$32 on the extreme low side to $80.   

So before looking at annual report or competitors to refine my numbers, I have an idea that this business might be worth buying at or under replacement value of $45. A plan for me based on my psychology and obtaining a price under replacement value might be to allocate a percentage of capital to buy this company starting at $45 down to $30. Perhaps three scaled buy orders on descending price?  Will I have the guts to keep buying to my allocation when and if oil goes to $60 and the S&P is down 600 points in a day? Yes, place GTC orders after final work is done.

Head in sand

Worth going through the proxy and 10-K for any problems.

Time: 15 minutes.

Next…………………………………

CARBO CERAMICS INC: A short thesis back when CRR traded above $150.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND

So What is it worth? Carbo Ceramics (CRR)

paul-singer

 The consensus (bull case): The power of psychology is overwhelming, and investor sentiment indicates that asset prices are being driven higher by QE and Zirp, that the Fed can be trusted, and that we should not worry too much about the unintended consequences, because the Fed will be able to follow a path to normalization and a soft landing. In any event, America is now a safe haven and always will be a safe haven. Moreover, goes the case, we may be at the sweet spot of the economic cycle. It has taken a long time to get here, but finally we are getting sustainable growth, and we can expect more of the same, Interest rates are completely under control, in fact, long-term rates are in a secular decline, which is not nearly at its bottom. Inflation is virtually impossible, and we really ought to be worrying about deflation instead. If we focus on getting inflation higher, then growth will follow. The currency is also under control, goes this line of thinking, In fact, what could the dollar fall against? The competition is in much worse shape. Banks are in far better financial condition than in 2008 and will gradually bleed off any remaining toxic assets that they own. If anything starts to go wrong, the government will step in to fix it. Pushing investors out on the risk curve in search of yield is a good idea and a clever way to encourage them to do what they should be doing on their own (i.e., taking risks to help the ecobnomy grow).  We should not worry, because things will be okay. We can even trust the representative branches of government, because elected officials will not have to do much that is unplatable or challending–the central bankers have it all covered. Above all, trust the Fed.  –Paul Singer

Do the Lessons of History Apply?

So what’s it worth?

Carbo VL

Carbo 2013

Carbo Presentation Sept 2014

Please do a “down and dirty” valuation giving your assumptions within twenty minutes.  I will post mine tomorrow!

ATCE-2014-post2

 

PRIZE: A Date with my EX! for best valuation!

Buy Hatred and Fear: Kinross (Russian assets for practically free)

CEF_041114

Gold Sentiment (CEF)

The above shows the extreme negativity in the gold market. You can buy the Canadian Closed-End Fund (CEF) at a 10% to 11% discount to gold (60% of assets) and silver (40%) approximately.  Gold and silver have no counter-party risk. Such is the world of closed-end funds.  Note the 20% premiums during bull runs!

KINROSS

The absurdity of gold stock valuations is illustrated by Kinross. Consistently improving operations with $5.30 book value and with no value attributed to their Russian mine. Net-debt-to-EBITDA of 1.28 with their debt covenants being 3.5xs to 1. Cash of $879 million. 1.14 billion outstanding shares. 27 cents of operating cash flow this quarter share, up 22%. A 2.6 to 2.7 million gold equivalent oz. producer. $698 cash costs and $919 All-in Sustaining Cash Cost.  They can survive at $1,000. Below $1,000 operations would be reduced.  Of course, Kinross represents a trifecta of hatred: poor past acquisitions (declining stock price), the gold market, and some Russian assets.

Basically, the market is heavily discounting their assets because the market is assuming sub-$1,000 gold. No value given to their Russian mine.

KINROSS RESULTS 3Q 2014

110514 kinross reports 2014 third quarter results

kinross141106

You should listen to the  Kinross conference call

Mining is a crappy business

Miners at or near ALL-TIME (past 90 years) low of stock price to gold price. Part of the reason for the decoupling is the time to find new deposits and place them into production has gone from five to six years out to ten years. Mining costs hve not been kept in check until recently. Past mining managements made poor capital allocation decisions. A mine is a depleting asset! But the market has had four years to replace managements and adjust.

sa71

Current sentiment in the gold miners ZERO (0). The recommended allocation is Zero. Contrarians take note but you better have a strong stomach in the near-term.

bpgdm7year021114

But what you need to focus on is not so much the nominal price but the REAL price of gold.  15% or more of the costs of a mine are energy based.

gold to oil

That said, do your own thinking and use this as a case study of where to look for negative sentiment.   The question is…..are you being paid enough for the risks?

Can gold go to $800? Sure and Kinross and other miners will be closing down many of their operations or even going bankrupt. But consider what $800 gold would mean in a world choking on debt! Perhaps stocks might not hold up in a deflationary bust!  It is not just the gold price but the real gold price that matters to miners.  However, nominal gold prices in US dollars matter to miners that have debt denominated in US dollars.

Just never buy one miner because of the risks to any one company. Use the EXTREME price volatility to your advantage. Don’t buy the stock all at once. If you need to diversify and have limited capital, then SGDM might be a choice–IF you think owning miners is the lowest cost way to participate in either a deflationary bust or inflationary response by the Fed.  Otherwise, CEF (above) might be a cheap form of insurance to monetary mayhem.

Miners in a capitulation phase–crashing on huge volume–after four year price decline. Folks have had enough. Money managers in forced liquidation?

GDX

Some history

Just remember that you are trying to buy assets at extremely low prices since this is not a franchise. A mine is a DEPLETING asset.   How much money goes into a mine versus what is sold discounted by your cost of capital.

Obviously, with a cyclical asset you will find losses and the widest spread between price and financial operating metrics because a trough occurs in a bear market of declining product prices.  The reverse occurs at the top of a cycle–huge revenues and profits during the boom. So you MUST sell–this is a “burning” match not a franchise. Burn this into your brain.

What could go wrong with financial assets?

Paul Singer grits his teeth while holding gold during a monetary delusion

Paul Singer on “illogical” market trends: http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/11/paul-singer-q3-2014-letter/

I disagree with Mr. Singer because the bubble in confidence in central planning by the Fed means extreme trends.   For example, massive printing of money will cause LOWER gold prices because the market sees perpetual support of financial assets. Why own gold when equities will NEVER drop more than 10% in our lifetimes.  Thus, massive monetary intervention is bearish for gold. Of course, house prices could NEVER fall nation-wide and the Internet Bubble ushered in a new normal.  Timing is impossible. 

THIS IS WHAT IT FEELS LIKE TO OWN MINERS THIS PAST MONTH–Please no women or children to click on this link! http://youtu.be/82RTzi5Vt7w?t=1m52s

Gold, Inflation Expectations and Economic Confidence

Wednesday November 05, 2014 11:29

Below is an excerpt from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com on 2nd November 2014. Excerpts from our newsletters and other comments on the markets can be read at our blog: http://tsi-blog.com/ 

As a result of what happened during just one of the past twenty decades (the 1970s), most people now believe that a large rise in “price inflation” or inflation expectations is needed to bring about a major rally in the gold price. This impression of gold is so ingrained that it has persisted even though the US$ gold price managed to rise by 560% during 2001-2011 in parallel with only small increases in “price inflation” (based on the CPI) and inflation expectations. The reality is that gold tends to perform very well during periods of declining confidence in the financial system, the economy and/or the official money, regardless of whether the decline in confidence is based on expectations of higher “inflation” or something else entirely.

Inflation expectations are certainly part of the gold story, but only to the extent that they affect the real interest rate. For example, a 2% rise in inflation expectations would only result in a more bullish backdrop for gold if it were accompanied by a rise of less than 2% in the nominal interest rate. For another example, a 1% decline in inflation expectations would not result in a more bearish backdrop for gold if it were accompanied by a decline of more than 1% in the nominal interest rate.

Other parts of the gold story include indicators of economic confidence and financial-market liquidity, such as credit spreads and the yield curve.

That large rises in the gold price are NOT primarily driven by increasing fear of “inflation” is evidenced by the fact that the large multi-year gold rallies of 2001-2006 and 2008-2011 began amidst FALLING inflation expectations. These rallies were set in motion by substantial stock market declines and plummeting confidence in central banks, commercial banks and the economy’s prospects. Even during the 1970s, the period when the gold price famously rocketed upward in parallel with increasing fear of “inflation”, the gold rally was mostly about declining real interest rates and declining confidence in both monetary and fiscal governance. After all, if the official plan to address a “price inflation” problem involves fixing prices and distributing “Whip Inflation Now” buttons, and at the same time the central bank and the government are experimenting with Keynesian demand-boosting strategies, then there’s only one way for economic confidence to go, and that’s down.

Since mid-2013 there have been a few multi-month periods when it appeared as if economic confidence was turning down, but on each occasion the downturn wasn’t sustained. This is due in no small part to the seemingly unstoppable advance in the stock market. In the minds of many people the stock market and the economy are linked, with a rising stock market supposedly being a sign of future economic strength. This line of thinking is misguided, but regardless of whether it is right or wrong the perception is having a substantial effect on the gold market.

For now, the economic confidence engendered to a large extent by the rising stock market is putting irresistible downward pressure on the gold price.

Steve Saville
http://www.speculative-investor.com/new/index.html

Ebola Outbreak to Help US Economy

EBOLA

Ebola Comes to America: Krugman & Stiglitz Must Be Delighted

By Daniel Oliver

Oh! What a Lovely Pestilence!

Ebola has come to America.  Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz must be delighted.

The core story of Keynesian economists is that government demand, as ideally embodied in war spending, enables economic growth. To illustrate, in a column called “Oh! What A Lovely War!” Krugman asserted: “World War II is the great natural experiment in the effects of large increases in government spending, and as such has always served as an important positive example for those of us who favor an activist approach to a depressed economy.”

It is never quite explained how removing millions of young men from the work force – many of whom never return – to sink ships, destroy factories, and level cities could possibly create wealth; nor how shortages and price controls on the home front could be good for the economy.

But fellow Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz agrees with Dr. Krugman’s prescription: “What we need to do instead is embark on a massive investment program-as we did, virtually by accident, 80 years ago. . . . Can we actually bring ourselves to do this, in the absence of mobilization for global war? Maybe not.”

Or maybe so. Last month Lakeland Industries announced the U.S. government had placed an order for 160,000 of its hazmat suits. The stock jumped 30% after the first confirmed case of Ebola on American soil. No Federal Reserve stimulus programs were necessary to create this wealth effect.

lakeland

If the often-fatal disease spreads, demand for hazmat suits will surge, not to mention hospital clinics, workers to build barricades, security guards to man quarantine checkpoints, probate officers, orphanages, and a host of other government services. It’s a good bet ammunition sales would also rise, along with canned food, firewood, and funeral services, stimulating the private economy. A lovely pestilence could create just as many jobs as a global war.

Former Obama advisor Christina Romer has pointed out: “The lesson [of World War II] is that demand is crucial – and that jobs don’t go unfilled for long. If jobs were widely available today, unemployed workers would quickly find a way to acquire needed skills or move to where the jobs were located.”

And if those jobs were located in the middle of a hot zone, even better. Leftist economists have bemoaned the low price of labor for over a century, advocating various artificial means to raise it, such as boosting the minimum wage and forming unions. But reducing the supply of labor could boost wage rates naturally and permanently.

As Krugman wrote recently about China: “to put it crudely, it’s running out of surplus peasants. That should be a good thing. Wages are rising.” History supports his analysis. The plague in medieval Europe killed between 30% and 60% of the population, which resulted in a sustained increase in wage rates that taught the capitalists a lesson by retarding economic growth for centuries. Ebola similarly offers a chance to solve America’s surplus labor problem and stick it to the capitalists harder than any of Thomas Piketty’s proposals.

As an added bonus, Ebola would save the government trillions. Obamacare Architect Ezekiel Emanuel wrote last month that it is pointless to live past the age of 75. The mind slows, senses weakness, productivity crashes, creatively vanishes: I have liv’d long enough: my way of life / Is fall’n into the sear, the yellow leaf.

And it’s expensive. Most healthcare spending is at the end of life, not surprisingly, when people are the least healthy. If people die young, Obamacare and Medicare will be saved. And, like aborted fetuses in the U.K., the bodies could be used as fuel to heat hospitals, reducing their carbon footprints.

The trillions saved could be spent on more stimulus. In fact, the more people die, the more savings there would be, and the more stimulus would be available to boost the economy for whoever is left. Imagine how rich the survivors would be!

Sadly, Ebola-stricken Liberia is unfamiliar with progressive economics. News outlets report that people are abandoning the fields and factories, leading to shortages, especially of food and fuel. Activity in the services sector has fallen by over 50%. Inflation has doubled. Civil war threatens.

Perhaps what West Africa needs is not more doctors, but a few Keynesian economists. Let us hope Krugman and Stiglitz volunteer.

Daniel Oliver Jr. is the founder of Myrmikan Capital, LLC, and is President of the Committee for Monetary Research and Education.

Have a Great Weekend!

Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide

The story of Fed policy and the stock market.

“The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.”–L. Mises

“If the Fed doesn’t INCREASE QE, then this sucker is going down.” Chicago Slim

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”

Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

“In February 1720 an edict was published, which, instead of restoring the credit of the paper, as was intended, destroyed it irrecoverably, and drove the country to the very brink of revolution…”

Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

“In reading The History of Nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their whims and their peculiarities, their seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do. We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.”

Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

“Nations, like individuals, cannot become desperate gamblers with impunity. Punishment is sure to overtake them sooner or later.”

Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

“It happens that crashes and panics often are precipitated by the revelation of some misfeasance, malfeasance, or malversation (the corruption of officials) engendered during the mania. It seems clear from the historical record that swindles are a response to the greedy appetite for wealth stimulated by the boom. And as the monetary system gets stretched, institutions lose liquidity, and unsuccessful swindles are about to be revealed, the temptation to take the money and run becomes virtually irresistible.”

Charles Kindleberger

1-Indexes-Overview

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=33555

 

Deep Value Master, Walter Schloss

W Schloss

Walter Schloss had a phenomenal track record over many decades.  His accounts returned profits almost every year, so the amount he managed stayed small.  His approach is a good one for individual investors. he would buy cheaply and average down. However, now might be a difficult time to practice his approach with many sectors of the market lacking a margin of safety unless you delve into (horrificly cyclical) certain mining companies, oil-drillers, and community banks.  But if you are interested in the deep value approach, you must study Schloss.  Does your personality match his approach?

The Superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville by Warren Buffett

Schloss_May_8_2008

schloss_lecture

Profit_Guru_Walter_Schloss_interview

graham_reminiscence

14136584-walter-schloss-barrons-19851

16 Investing Rules from Walter Schloss

Walter Schloss – OID Interview

Walter Schloss Lecture: http://youtu.be/v-7e_97icWY

Learning from Schloss (excellent review) http://youtu.be/5KM9eY7BbzA

What do YOU think? 

Value Investing Series Seminar (Free) This Saturday

20141007_ebola

If you are free Saturday then check this out:

http://vip.marketfy.com/valueinvestingseries/

From my friend, Toby Carlisle, of Deep Value Investing Fame.

HAPPY WEEKEND!