Category Archives: Economics & Politics

Gold Discipline Melts Away or Case Study in Reading the News

This morning I read the news…Oh boy!  –The Beatles

(Editor: Read the following article and ask how YOU, as a reader or investor whether you have no opinion; are hyper bearish or hyper bullish gold or miners, benefit. Is there a particular BIAS? Finally, what is the main question you want answered? So what is the acquisition __________?  Prize awarded.

Gold Discipline Melts Away from Heard On The Street Column (WSJ April 17, 2014)

And they were doing do well. The intensifying battle of Osisko Mining is fast undoing gold miners’ work to restore credibility.

Wednesday Yamana Gold raised its offer to 8.15 Canadian dollars (U.S. $7.42) a share, this time roping in Agnico-Eagle Mines as a joint bidder, valuing Osisko at C$3.9 billion. Goldcorp raised its own bid to C$7.65 a share last week.

Takeover battles, with their risk of overpaying, are always unnerving for investors in the bidders. With gold miners thate is added concern: The sector has dropped about two-thirds since September 2011 as a history of overpriced deals an busted investment budgets caught up with it.

Miners have worked to address this, cutting costs and investment and, in many cases changing top management. Citigroup estinmates the average all-in cash cost per ounce, which includes things such as capital expenditure, fell by a fifth last year.

It remains more than $1,400 an ounce, though–still above today’s gold price of about $1,300. So this is no time to succumb to the old ways. Yet, even before Wed, both Yahmana and Goldcorp had made offers dilutive to their own value, ssays adam Graf at Cowen. That they are engaging in this now suggest talk of discipline is just that–or that their own project pipelines aren’t as robust as though.

Osisko’s stock now trades at C$7.94, and the break fee on the latest bid is worth 44 Canadian cents a share. To counter, Goldcorp would have to raise its bid roughly C$1, or 13%.

It should resist the temptation, but may not. One thing is clear. With the recently rediscovered discipline now apparently crumbling, it makes more sense to own junior gold miners, the potential targets, then their bigger rivals. –Liam Denning.

I will post my “answer” this weekend. Your thoughts?

Editor: Also, this article should spur you to do a valuation of Detour (DRGDF)–hint! hint! See: http://wp.me/p2OaYY-2m2

536584-13976660696117253-Dave-Kranzler

Note the extreme tightness for leasing gold. See: Gofo It will be interesting to see if gold can continue to decline in the face of bullion demand. Leasing rates are close to the most negative since mid-August 2013 when gold rallied to $1,400.

You can update your charts with the gold price vs. 1 month and 3 month GOFO rates.  Is this the canary in the coal mine for financial stress? Gofo Rates and Gold.  Low interest rates mean–all things being equal–gofo rates would be lower, But negative rates can ONLY mean two things:

  1. Investors don’t want to lend their gold because of counter party risk
  2. and/or they don’t have the gold.

Blog for special situations

http://www.cablecarcapital.com/blog/

Anniversary Day for the April Gold Massacre

04-14-2014_GOFO_cleaned (1)

The paradox in investing hinges on the tension between having both the strength of one’s convictions and the intellectual flexibility necessary to admit, relatively quickly, when one is wrong.–Unknown

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists’ tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process.  It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard.  Alan Greenspan (1966) http://www.321gold.com/fed/greenspan/1966.html

There are two ways to conquer and enslave a country. One is by the sword. The other is by debt. –John Adams, 1735-1826

When you consider the rate at which public debt is increasing, along with the fact that so many countries around the world instituted their own versions of quantitative easing (i.e. printing money) while increasing debt levels, these conditions are unprecedented. We have found NO HISTORICAL example of so many major countries simultaneously engaged in quantitative easing. Just ten years ago we would not have thought such an economic environment even possible. –Arnold Van Den Berg, Feb. 21, 2014

Gold Massacre

Today’s price decline in gold is probably a gift for the long-term buyer. A year ago on tax day the gold market had a large sell-off with rising demand from China.  big gld

Today, gold gets sold off $35 in the New York open, because demand from China is falling due to weakening money supply, credit stress and ?? What else can we make up?  China is relentlessly accumulating gold.

small GLD

However, 2014 is far different in market structure than 2013. 900 tons have already been removed from gold ETFs and demand to hold gold is greater than cash based on negative GOFO rates–see chart at the top and read here: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/5663/plunging-gofo-rates

Take a look at the negative rates here: http://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics.  An article discussing gold’s anniversary day: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_041514.html

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/todays-gold-price-take-down-operation-has-the-smell-of-desperation/

The cause of today’s sell-off is not manipulation, contrary to the howls from goldbugs, but traders getting ahead of possible collateral issues tied to swap agreements:http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2014/04/15/the-inconvenient-marriage-of-yuan-and-gold/  So, gold prices could continue to be pressured–welcome to markets. Which force will be greater?

Valuation

Has anyone has attempted a valuation of Detour Mines (DRGDF) mentioned in this post: http://wp.me/p2OaYY-2m2? I won’t post my valuation until the $500,000 prize is awarded.

My quarterly report (The Horror!) :Gold and Miners_April First Qtr Report

A reader wished to share a report on investing in materials:  Fortnightly_Thoughts_-_14_04_14_-_Materials

Simple Discussion of Austrian Business Cycle Theory

Head or tails

An excellent discussion of how and why ABCT works.  Note that the speaker, David Howden, says the middle stages of production (like building infrastructure and maintaining stores) are declining now.  Excellent!

ThinkerAUDIO http://fetch.noxsolutions.com/tomwoods/audio/woods_03_17_2014_2.mp3    Just copy and past into your browser. Thirty minute audio.

David Howden, economist, articles: http://ideas.repec.org/f/pho322.html and http://mises.org/daily/author/1259/

Global Meltdown?  http://www.caseyresearch.com/lg/meltdown-video  Thoughts?

Momentum Stocks Mauled, A Lesson in ABCT

RUTNDXDJIASPX-divergences

Momentum Mauled: http://www.acting-man.com/?p=29724#more-29724

When momentum stocks crack, this is what it feels like: http://youtu.be/go9uekKOcKM

When retail investors blindly buy Yelp, Tesla, Concur Technologies, and IBB, I see:

YELP

SPLK

CNQR

A reader asked if ABCT was helpful in timing purchases or sales.  I don’t believe so, but you see where the canaries are beginning to die in the coal mine. If artificially manipulated interest rates–through the Fed’s manipulating the value of the currency (The Fed monetizes the debt through “quantitative easing” which is just currency debasement/printing up fiat currency)–cause mal-investment, then you would expect to see the first cracks in the most over-valued areas of the market first.  Note the collapse of sub-prime in 2007 before the general equity collapse in 2008/09.

Here Ludvig Von Mises(1881 – 1973) explains, “The boom can last only as long as the credit expansion progresses AT AN EVER-ACCELERATED pace. The boom comes to an end as soon as additional quantities of fiduciary media are no longer thrown upon the loan market.”  Note that the Fed is “tapering” or buying fewer bonds with newly issued fiat currency.   For the boom to continue, the Fed would need to VASTLY INCREASE the monetary madness.

This fractional reserve banking system allows banks to engage in credit creation by issuing notes and bank balances unsupported by any new wealth. Or the Fed simply creates the money out of thin air to purchase Treasury Debt from other individuals and institutions.  Since money substitutes are created out of thin air, the whole process is a risky venture. On its face, such a practice would be fraudulent except that it has a legal basis whereby central banks give commercial banks the legal right to issue “counterfeit” money.

All the interference of free market prices by the Fed to lower interest rates just promotes business activity that would be uneconomic at normalized interest rates (read: a higher cost of capital). Can you be surprised when Tesla, Yelp or Pets.com (in 2000) are the first to plunge?

Fed buying

 A great blog: http://www.marketanthropology.com/2014/04/a-staggered-start_7.html  In the chart above, note the last time in the 1940s when the Fed was monetizing the government’s debt to pay for WWII.

Today:Recent Fed Buying

 While perhaps investors and their money are moving here:
Staggered Start

 

James Grant; Corning the Gold Market; the 1960′s Bowling Bubble

James Grant’s speech about the Federal Reservehttp://csinvesting.org/wp-admin/post.php?post=2620&action=edit#

How to corner the gold market: http://www.tavakolistructuredfinance.com/2010/03/corner-gold-market/

The 1960 Bowling Bubble: http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/03/let-the-good-times-roll-the-incredible-bowling-bubble-of-the-1960s/359787/

The Monetary Polaris or Back to the Future (Free Book)

Monetary Polaris Book Cover

220px-Gold_Bars

 

 

 

 

Free Book: Gold, the Monetary Polaris  by Nathan Lewis 

I highly recommend this book to understand our current mess and how we can go back to stable money and a prosperous world for all.  Before dismissing the idea of a gold standard with thoughts of–there is not enough gold; we tried that before and why gold, we now have Bitcoin–learn first how a gold standard works and then financial and monetary history. Your study will pay huge dividends.  Lewis debunks the myth that you need 100% gold-backing for paper money. (See Rothbard’s book, Case for a 100 Percent Gold Dollar)

For a great romp through financial history and the role that gold played: Gold as money Lewis  Another great book.

Lewis writes on page 5, “A gold standard system has a specific purpose: to achieve, as closely as is possible in an imperfect world, the Classical ideal of a currency that is stable in value, neutral, free of government manipulation, precise in its definition, and which can serve as a universal standard of value, in much the manner in which kilograms or meters serve as standards of weights and measures.”

The author shows how and why the Classical principle of stable, gold-based money once made Americans wealthy. Why not now?

Stable money along with clear property rights/rule of law and low taxation/regulatory burdens have provided the means for the greatest human prosperity.

View Nathan Lewis’ articles here: www.newworldeconomics.com

Video Lecture published on Feb 18, 2014: Http://Www.Cato.Org/Events/Gold-Monet…

In this sequel to Gold: the Once and Future Money, Nathan Lewis describes the theoretical basis of gold-standard monetary systems. Lewis argues that the pre-1913 world gold standard system was perhaps the most successful monetary system the world has ever seen, enabling high levels of economic growth. Descriptions of both Britain’s economic rise under the gold standard and the United States’ rise to economic prominence under gold are also discussed.

Government Debt Bubble; Financial History

DEBT

In the Land of the Free, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) recently released its 2013 Financial Report of the United States government.

This is the government’s best attempt at an honest accounting of its books. And even though they use a different accounting system that gives them special advantages, the picture is still remarkably bleak.

We all know that the US government has racked up a substantial debt; as of this morning, total outstanding public debt is $17,546,814,482,078.90. ($17.5 trillion)

But it’s not all about the debt. Debt is not necessarily evil… and it’s important to look at the situation qualitatively in addition to quantitatively.

Let’s drop a few zeros and consider this in terms of personal finance.

Assume you had $1.75 million in total debt. That sounds like a lot to most people.

But if you had $3 million in liquid assets to offset the debt, plus $500,000 in annual income to pay interest, living expenses, and just about any contingency that could come your way, you’d be in great shape.

It would be even better if that $1.75 million in debt financed a lucrative real estate investment which was generating a 25% cash-on-cash return for you.

But that’s not the case for the US government.

Despite the Obama administration touting a budget deficit of “only” $680 billion in 2013, the GAO’s more accurate accounting shows a total government cost of $3.8 trillion on total revenue of $2.8 trillion.

In other words– the administration wasn’t exactly honest with the American people– the deficit was more like $1 trillion, not $680 billion. But it gets worse.

The GAO added up ALL the US government’s assets in 2013. Aircraft carriers. The highway system. Land. Cash and financial assets. The total is $2.97 trillion.

The liabilities, on the other hand, total $19.88 trillion. This includes the official public debt, plus all sorts of IOUs and loan guarantees.

This means the net EQUITY of the US government is minus $16.9 trillion.

Moreover, the US government’s cash position is a mere $206 billion… roughly 1.1% of its public debt. This isn’t enough to cover net interest payments for the next year.

Unlike a savvy investor who borrows cheap money to purchase productive assets, the US government borrows money to pay interest.

Quantitatively AND qualitatively, the data point to an inevitable conclusion: despite all the propaganda, this is NOT a risk free environment.

And understanding these trends and consequences is absolutely critical to your long-term financial survival.   From: www.sovereignman.com (Simon Black)

A solution? Debtors’ Prisons

local-govt-debt1-13

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar14/legal-looting3-14.html

 

Total-US-Government-Debt-overlayed-by-Rodrigues-Bubble-Model

A great audio interview of Bob Hoye, a financial historian & money manager, discusses our current situation compared to the past: http://radio.goldseek.com/nuggets/goyette.03.19.14.mp3

Is Bitcoin a Scam?

Bitcoin-Crash

Bitcoin the PERFECT SCAM

Bitcoin is as a SCAM by design as I have voiced many times over several months in that even when a large percentage of people have their holdings stolen the price is stable enough to continue to entice new entrants into exchanging hard earned fiat currency for bitcoins via the ramblings of the clueless mainstream press, investors who will also at some point lose the value of all of their holdings.

As I have pointed out several times before bitcoin ultimately has a destiny with extinction because in order to continue verifying bitcoin transactions then bitcoin miners need exponentially greater processing power to achieve this, where today a bitcoin miner would need to invest in order of $20,000 to have any hopes of breaking even, costs that looks set to double every year where a decade from now break even mining operations would require an investment of more than $40 million which would imply far fewer mining pools that would in effect OWN the bitcoin craptocurrency and through the block verification process even be able to re-write who owns what.

Ultimately this means that the bitcoin mining will become the sole enterprise for criminal enterprises as no legitimate enterprise would be able to cover the costs of verifying bitcoin transactions (blocks) and thus earning new bitcoins, thus leaving bitcoin mining wholly to criminal gangs operating bot nets in control of millions of infected computers that would each mine fragments that would periodically be harvested by the bot nets.

So bitcoin holders don’t be surprised when you come to open your wallet.dat file that you find it is empty!

Read more: http://srsroccoreport.com/bitcoin-the-perfect-scam-price-does-not-reflect-true-dangers-of-holding-bitcoins/bitcoin-the-perfect-scam-price-does-not-reflect-true-dangers-of-holding-bitcoins/

Agree/disagree.

Interview of Volcker

http://www.thirdave.com/news/third-avenue-credit-manager-interviews-paul-volcker/

Will the last bear turn out the lights:

http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/3/17/will-the-last-bear-please-turn-out-the-lights.html

A New Monetary System

Room Service

Learn how we can move away from our dysfunctional paper-mache currency system.

On February 12, 2014, Nathan Lewis spoke at the Cato Institute in Washington DC, a well-known conservative “think tank,” about the topics in his new book, Gold: the Monetary Polaris.  The webcast video of the event is available at the Cato website here: 
http://www.cato.org/events/gold-monetary-polaris

Also, here’s the presentation from the event:

Click here for a .pdf of the presentation used at the Cato talk.

A gold standard simply produces stable money–a necessity for economic prosperity.

A gold standard does NOT depend upon the quantity of gold. It is a currency board based on gold.   Be one of the few people who can understand how such a system could work.

As always, try to find arguments against a proposition:

Recent Arguments AGAINST the Gold Standard

Why Bitcoins Will Fail As Money:Digital Mania

Hush

Hoping to be killed by a Hellfire Missle (Drone)

 

Americans cherish being killed by the President

Psychops: http://winteractionables.com/?p=9578

Let’s do away with the 6th Amendment: http://www.acting-man.com/?p=28930#more-28930

 

.