I will be posting videos directly to the blog so as to avoid using the Value Vault. Keep the faith. More to follow……….
| Lecture 1 Greenblatt Columbia Lecture (2005_02_14).rm Lecture 2: http://www.yousendit.com/download/TEhYa3ZORkVEbUp2Zk1UQw Go to the search box and type in Videos or Greenblatt Videos and you will have fresh links. Alos use VALUE VAULT. Sorry the links decay but now I have permanent links. |
Fantastic, John. I’ve seen lecture 1, and I’ll be sure to watch lecture 2.
An important takeaway is that, as one might suspect, the process isn’t as straightforward as portrayed in his Genius book. I think one thing I’d be thinking about a lot is “am I sure I got this thing figured out right?”
One thing that is dawning on me is the benefits of case studies. You don’t have to invest, but you can learn a lot by following some interesting situations – both good AND bad – and try to hone your intuition and experience. It is a reason why I contend that investing is more about “pattern recognition” than “psychology”. When you know what to do, then psychology isn’t an aspect.
One little story I’ve been following is JJB Sports. It had been “beleagured” for a few years now. The share price had dropped precipitously. It had a notifiable interest by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (which from my other reading has invested in a lot of other terrible junk), and by a widely respected fund manager. Off the top of my head, it’s had about 3 rights issue over the last 4 years, and investors have been pouring good money after bad. Anecdotally, I’ve observed that rights issues to bail out faltering companies is usually a losing bet for investors, and probably a sign that you should take your losses and move on.
What’s also interesting is that last month the company issued an RNS stating “Given the level of current debt within the Company, there can be no assurance that any proposal or offer that may be made would attribute value to the ordinary shares of the Company.” Yet investors failed to take their cue from this dire warning, which was effectively code for “you’re hosed”.
The company has now suspended its listing, and equity holders are almost certain to get nothing. It certainly highlights the dangers of turnaround plays, and something for which I think requires an extraordinary amount of skill to make money in.
Reducing the error rate, that’s the important thing.
WELL, now that the subject of special situations has been talked about, I’ve been very interested in what’s happening at RIMM.
I’ve had some ideas on what Greenblatt might be doing here: http://is.gd/C1Sr70 Check it out. It is just some sketch ideas, and it could just be nonsense of course, so be gentle with me.
With all due respect I must ask, why, in the 21st century, are we exchanging RealMedia player links rather than putting this stuff in the cloud via YouTube and such?
If you will help, I will give you access to all the videos and you can go to it–take whatever credit or link to your site. Turning on the computer is the max of my technical ability.
John, I might have a look into this. I’ll let you know if I make progress.
hi john, just tried to hit both links but got this :
We are sorry but the file has either expired or the sender has exhausted the download limit
I seem to be able to download lecture 2 at least.
I’m experimenting with video conversion – so far with success. I note that Veoh allows for extended uploads, so I might try them.
I will keep you all posted of details as they become available.