Category Archives: Special Situations

Buy Hatred and Fear: Kinross (Russian assets for practically free)

CEF_041114

Gold Sentiment (CEF)

The above shows the extreme negativity in the gold market. You can buy the Canadian Closed-End Fund (CEF) at a 10% to 11% discount to gold (60% of assets) and silver (40%) approximately.  Gold and silver have no counter-party risk. Such is the world of closed-end funds.  Note the 20% premiums during bull runs!

KINROSS

The absurdity of gold stock valuations is illustrated by Kinross. Consistently improving operations with $5.30 book value and with no value attributed to their Russian mine. Net-debt-to-EBITDA of 1.28 with their debt covenants being 3.5xs to 1. Cash of $879 million. 1.14 billion outstanding shares. 27 cents of operating cash flow this quarter share, up 22%. A 2.6 to 2.7 million gold equivalent oz. producer. $698 cash costs and $919 All-in Sustaining Cash Cost.  They can survive at $1,000. Below $1,000 operations would be reduced.  Of course, Kinross represents a trifecta of hatred: poor past acquisitions (declining stock price), the gold market, and some Russian assets.

Basically, the market is heavily discounting their assets because the market is assuming sub-$1,000 gold. No value given to their Russian mine.

KINROSS RESULTS 3Q 2014

110514 kinross reports 2014 third quarter results

kinross141106

You should listen to the  Kinross conference call

Mining is a crappy business

Miners at or near ALL-TIME (past 90 years) low of stock price to gold price. Part of the reason for the decoupling is the time to find new deposits and place them into production has gone from five to six years out to ten years. Mining costs hve not been kept in check until recently. Past mining managements made poor capital allocation decisions. A mine is a depleting asset! But the market has had four years to replace managements and adjust.

sa71

Current sentiment in the gold miners ZERO (0). The recommended allocation is Zero. Contrarians take note but you better have a strong stomach in the near-term.

bpgdm7year021114

But what you need to focus on is not so much the nominal price but the REAL price of gold.  15% or more of the costs of a mine are energy based.

gold to oil

That said, do your own thinking and use this as a case study of where to look for negative sentiment.   The question is…..are you being paid enough for the risks?

Can gold go to $800? Sure and Kinross and other miners will be closing down many of their operations or even going bankrupt. But consider what $800 gold would mean in a world choking on debt! Perhaps stocks might not hold up in a deflationary bust!  It is not just the gold price but the real gold price that matters to miners.  However, nominal gold prices in US dollars matter to miners that have debt denominated in US dollars.

Just never buy one miner because of the risks to any one company. Use the EXTREME price volatility to your advantage. Don’t buy the stock all at once. If you need to diversify and have limited capital, then SGDM might be a choice–IF you think owning miners is the lowest cost way to participate in either a deflationary bust or inflationary response by the Fed.  Otherwise, CEF (above) might be a cheap form of insurance to monetary mayhem.

Miners in a capitulation phase–crashing on huge volume–after four year price decline. Folks have had enough. Money managers in forced liquidation?

GDX

Some history

Just remember that you are trying to buy assets at extremely low prices since this is not a franchise. A mine is a DEPLETING asset.   How much money goes into a mine versus what is sold discounted by your cost of capital.

Obviously, with a cyclical asset you will find losses and the widest spread between price and financial operating metrics because a trough occurs in a bear market of declining product prices.  The reverse occurs at the top of a cycle–huge revenues and profits during the boom. So you MUST sell–this is a “burning” match not a franchise. Burn this into your brain.

What could go wrong with financial assets?

Paul Singer grits his teeth while holding gold during a monetary delusion

Paul Singer on “illogical” market trends: http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/11/paul-singer-q3-2014-letter/

I disagree with Mr. Singer because the bubble in confidence in central planning by the Fed means extreme trends.   For example, massive printing of money will cause LOWER gold prices because the market sees perpetual support of financial assets. Why own gold when equities will NEVER drop more than 10% in our lifetimes.  Thus, massive monetary intervention is bearish for gold. Of course, house prices could NEVER fall nation-wide and the Internet Bubble ushered in a new normal.  Timing is impossible. 

THIS IS WHAT IT FEELS LIKE TO OWN MINERS THIS PAST MONTH–Please no women or children to click on this link! http://youtu.be/82RTzi5Vt7w?t=1m52s

Gold, Inflation Expectations and Economic Confidence

Wednesday November 05, 2014 11:29

Below is an excerpt from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com on 2nd November 2014. Excerpts from our newsletters and other comments on the markets can be read at our blog: http://tsi-blog.com/ 

As a result of what happened during just one of the past twenty decades (the 1970s), most people now believe that a large rise in “price inflation” or inflation expectations is needed to bring about a major rally in the gold price. This impression of gold is so ingrained that it has persisted even though the US$ gold price managed to rise by 560% during 2001-2011 in parallel with only small increases in “price inflation” (based on the CPI) and inflation expectations. The reality is that gold tends to perform very well during periods of declining confidence in the financial system, the economy and/or the official money, regardless of whether the decline in confidence is based on expectations of higher “inflation” or something else entirely.

Inflation expectations are certainly part of the gold story, but only to the extent that they affect the real interest rate. For example, a 2% rise in inflation expectations would only result in a more bullish backdrop for gold if it were accompanied by a rise of less than 2% in the nominal interest rate. For another example, a 1% decline in inflation expectations would not result in a more bearish backdrop for gold if it were accompanied by a decline of more than 1% in the nominal interest rate.

Other parts of the gold story include indicators of economic confidence and financial-market liquidity, such as credit spreads and the yield curve.

That large rises in the gold price are NOT primarily driven by increasing fear of “inflation” is evidenced by the fact that the large multi-year gold rallies of 2001-2006 and 2008-2011 began amidst FALLING inflation expectations. These rallies were set in motion by substantial stock market declines and plummeting confidence in central banks, commercial banks and the economy’s prospects. Even during the 1970s, the period when the gold price famously rocketed upward in parallel with increasing fear of “inflation”, the gold rally was mostly about declining real interest rates and declining confidence in both monetary and fiscal governance. After all, if the official plan to address a “price inflation” problem involves fixing prices and distributing “Whip Inflation Now” buttons, and at the same time the central bank and the government are experimenting with Keynesian demand-boosting strategies, then there’s only one way for economic confidence to go, and that’s down.

Since mid-2013 there have been a few multi-month periods when it appeared as if economic confidence was turning down, but on each occasion the downturn wasn’t sustained. This is due in no small part to the seemingly unstoppable advance in the stock market. In the minds of many people the stock market and the economy are linked, with a rising stock market supposedly being a sign of future economic strength. This line of thinking is misguided, but regardless of whether it is right or wrong the perception is having a substantial effect on the gold market.

For now, the economic confidence engendered to a large extent by the rising stock market is putting irresistible downward pressure on the gold price.

Steve Saville
http://www.speculative-investor.com/new/index.html

Buy What is on Sale! CEF Discounts

PITSelling today in the pits-gold and silver

CEF BIG

Above is a chart of CEF, Canadien Gold (60%) and Silver (40%) bullion closed-end fund trading at a 6.5% discount today. ON SALE!  I have no clue if tomorrow the price will be higher or lower.

http://www.cefconnect.com/Details/Summary.aspx?Ticker=CEF

Note the premiums as high as 10% and currently 6.5% discount.

4-Gold-sentiment-data

Learn more about interpretating sentiment indicators: www.acting-man.com

Long term sentiment

gold Sent 1

Silver Sent 1

HYGI Sent

A Great blog, Down the Rabbit Hole: http://biiwii.com/wordpress/2014/09/10/sentiment-shifting-gold-bugs/

Though, I like miners more, but now is a good time to pick up tangible money at a discount. Pay 94 cents and get a dollar of gold and silver today–I will take it.  SOLD!  Miners make money on the arbitrage between their input costs and output prices. You don’t need a rising nominal gold price; you need a rising REAL gold price.

gold.cci_-600x264 (2)

Gold commodities

Now is the time for me to post on Yamana (by this weekend, I pray) because it is at a price $7.33 that I have purchased in the past and it may be a reasonable choice for a BASKET of miners.

Also, you want to see analysts pile-on negatively AFTER price has fully dicounted the news. I am not being contrarian or cynical, it is just how markets work–they DISCOUNT.

Yamana Gold suffers rash of stock price target cuts • 12:58 PM

Carl Surran, SA News Editor
  • Yamana Gold (AUY -1.2%) is lower after Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse and Raymond James cut their price targets on the stock to $10.70, $10.50, and $10, respectively.
  • In the case of Morgan Stanley, the lower target still implies upside of more than 40%; AUY has said the Pilar mine in Brazil has shown improvements with output increasing M/M, but the ramp up is tracking modestly below expectations, thus the firm’s tempered outlook.
  • An update on Canadian Malartic and meeting quarterly expectations are potential catalysts expected over the next 6-8 weeks.

Read comments

Read the link below and the link within it to gain more understanding on gold and miners.

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=32809 

Munger Discusses Blue Chip Stamps

Blue Chip

A case study of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger’s investment in and management of Blue Chip Stamps. Includes:

If you find any errors or have any other contributions, make a pull request or contact me through the Twitter handle @maxolson.

GO HERE: https://www.gitbook.io/book/maxolson/blue-chip-stamps

PS: On the road, but I haven’t forgotten about Yamana. I wouldn’t buy above $8.00.

If gold is down because the market thinks the Fed will raise rates and end QE, then those assumptions are based on fantasy. HOW can the FED EVER stop QE without the house of cards collapsing?  What does history say:  http://www.zealllc.com/2014/goldrrf.htm

 

Here is the Argentina Peso in free-fall:

Peso Monthly

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!

 

Searching For Special Situations; The Petro-Dollar

nq140620

 The market, like the Lord helps those who help themselves. Unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do. –Warren Buffett

A business that must deal with fast-moving technology is not going to lend itself to reliable evaluation if its long-term economics. Did we foresee thirty years ago what would transpire in the television-manufacturing or computer industries? Of course not. Why, then, should Charlie (Munger) and I now think we can predict the future of other rapidly-evolving businesses? We will stick instead with the easy cases. Why search for a needle buried in a haystack when one is sitting in plain sight.

SPECIAL SITUATION WORKSHOP PRESENTATION

Zack-Buckley-The-Road-Less-Traveled-Presentation Motivated students can download the financials of the companies mentioned and check the authors assumptions/work.

Creating Value Through Corporate Restructuring Course-1

 

The Current Situation with Our Petrodollar

http://usawatchdog.com/iraq-about-us-dollar-hyperinflation-trouble-in-2015-gordon-long/

 

TREASURE CHEST!

Hashtag

INFLATION

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=31075  Note the ZIRP-induced distortion in the production structure.

production-capital-and-consumer-goods-ann

Fed and Stocks

BB

bPKW

PKW is a buy-back ETF which only chooses companies that will buy back at least 5% of their shares per year.

Treasure Chest 

Lecture Links  Thanks to a generous contribution! Let me know what you learn.

TREASURE CHEST! A Value Analyst Pro; BITCOIN

POTHOLE

 

TREASURE CHEST

Introduction

Ecclesiastes tells us: “The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.” Myrmikan Research applies this principle to the subject of credit bubbles.

The ancient Greeks discovered that debt could magnify wealth. The debtor feels richer from the use of the borrowed property, while the lender feels richer from the compounding interest yielded by his claim. Both indulge in consumption more freely. As long as the accumulating claims remain contingent, the bubble grows. But, eventually, someone asks to be paid, and the expandingclaims on wealth must be reconciled to tangible wealth, much of which has been consumed.

The first recorded credit bubble popped in 594 B.C. Athens. Threatened with a civil war of creditor versus debtor, the Athenian ruler Solon pulled down the mortgage stones to free the debtors and devalued the drachma by 27% to relieve the bankers. Every credit collapse since – from the Panic of A.D. 33 to John Law’s Mississippi Bubble to the Great Depression and many others besides – has followed Solon’s template of debt default and currency devaluation.

“The natural remedies, if the credit-sickness be far advanced, will always include a redistribution of wealth: the further it is postponed, the more violent it will be. Every collapse of a credit expansion is a bankruptcy, and the magnitude of the bankruptcy will be proportionate to the magnitude of the debt debauch. In bankruptcies, creditors must suffer.” – Freeman Tilden, 1936

And against what is currency and debt devalued? Carl Menger, founder of the Austrian School of economics, was the first to explain that money is liquidity and that gold is the most liquid asset. Thus, gold has served as the reference point of value since the origins of money and is that against which currency must be devalued to relieve debts. Paper promises depreciate.

“The faith is lost. All with one impulse people rush to seize the gold itself as the only reality left—not only people as individuals; banks, also, and the great banking systems and governments do it, in competition with people. This is the financial crisis.”
– Garet Garrett, 1932

Myrmikan Research chronicles the collapse of the current, global credit bubble – the largest and broadest in history – analyzing current events from the perspective of Austrian economics and placing them in historical context.  Many links to books: http://www.myrmikan.com/research/

A Value Investor/Analyst, http://www.hacketts.com/  Click on Samples link on the left and read examples of company research. If you want to be a professional analyst, his research sets a high standard.  Note the format: Thesis stated right up front. He eats his own cooking too.

BITCOIN

Gavin Andresen, Chief Scientist of the Bitcoin Foundation, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about where Bitcoin has been and where it might be headed in the future. Topics discussed include competing cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin, the role of the Bitcoin Foundation, the challenges Bitcoin faces going forward, and the mystery of Satoshi Nakamoto.

 

 

Value Investing in India; Revisit JCP or How to Fail in Business

sm IndiaBIG INDIA

Bill Miller used to run Legg Mason’s Value Trust but then people learned he wasn’t a value investor and not to trust him –Port Stansberry

Value Investing in India

India’s market seems cheaper than the good ole USA’s S&P 500. The average stock in the US is trading at 25-times earnings. Americans have to look beyond the decks of the Titanic and view foreign shores.  I traveled for a half year in India but I am ignorant about investing there, but we can always learn.

Stansberry Radio

This week, Steve Sjuggerud and his good friend Rahul Saraogi, a managing director at Atyant Capital, join Stansberry Radio to share the unique situation in India right now.

AUDIO (A tad obnoxious, but bear with them) http://www.stansberryradio.com/Porter-Stansberry/Latest-Episodes/Episode/541/0/Ep-151-Rahul-Saraogi-Investing-in-India

Picture Rahul

Rahul is a hedge-fund manager based in Chennai, India. He has been investing in India as his career for 14 years. And he told us on the radio show that India is “looking better than I’ve seen it in my career.”

Rahul wasn’t so concerned about the specific way you invest… as long as you simply get some money in. “India itself is going to do really well,” he said. “You need to have a piece of India in your portfolio.”

Guest: RAHUL SARAOGI

Rahul is a managing director at Atyant Capital and manages the Atyant Capital India Fund. In the last 13 years he’s managed money exclusively in the Indian markets. His mission is to consistently identify the best 10-15 investment ideas from among the thousands of publicly-traded Indian corporations. Rahul’s value-based investment philosophy stands apart due to his belief in the paramount importance of corporate governance, specifically how management operates with its minority shareholders in mind.

Prior to Atyant, Rahul spent four years leading Meridian Investments, generating a 430% absolute return for the firm’s high net worth clients.

Rahul graduated from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania with a degree in Economics. Outside of Atyant, he practices Vipassana, a 2,500 year-old meditation technique that helps people see things as they really are. Rahul lives and works in Chennai, India.

CSInvesting: Color me skeptical, but I will take a look.

If I had to invest with a manager in India (vs. an ETF. See above) I might seek out: Prof. Sanjay Bakshi to the left of Prof. Greenwald of Columbia University.

Sanjay

http://www.sanjay_bakshi.net/articles-talks/

Prof. Sanjay Bakshi of http://www.value_quest_capital.com/

Revisiting Failure (JCP)

Improving as an investor is hard. You can make money while doing the wrong thing and vice-versa. I always write down the reasons for my investment thesis and then record the result when the position is exited. I will place a tickler in my calendar say eighteen months later to again review my past investment to see if there is more I can learn dispassionately. My last post on JCP, http://wp.me/p2OaYY-1JG. I bought near $20 on the assumption of buying below real estate value with little value for the retail operations, then sold near $15 after Johnson was fired. I was wrong.

JCP

Here is an update on the story behind the company’s struggles, How to Fail in Business While Really, Really Trying. Read: http://omnichannelretailing.com/how-to-fail-in-business-while-really-really-trying/   A good read!  Investing teaches humility. My take-away turnarounds in a difficult business often don’t turn. The reputation of the business overcomes the management. 

Looking At Bottoms; Gold Stocks

200205666-001

No, not these…..

Bottom

 

 

 

I mean these……….. (Thanks to http://www.classicvalueinvestors.com/

Gold Stocks

The table below is meant to highlight the HUGE price ranges of the micro-cap junior precious metals sector. I tend to avoid or make allowance for some of these companies going to $0.00 or diluting shareholders with equity offerings.

GroupofMinersPerformanceFebruary182014-300x90

 If you go back and read the author’s post over the past two years, you will get a feel for the suffering of investors who ride a BIG BEAR market in small junior mining stocks. Be aware of the downside as well! See:  http://classicvalueinvestors.com/i/2014/03/goldgroup-mining-this-is-what-i-call-a-great-day/

How one investor changed his life by developing his OWN method of investing.

Below is an advertisement to get you to hear the audio story. The ad places the HOOK, “an unusual money-making secret.”  Baloney, he doesn’t use any “secret”. He simply found a method to value, buy cheaply, and manage a portfolio of precious metals’ stocks.  And over the years he has done extremely well while stomaching swings of 50% or more. He can hold on, because of his work and confidence. THAT is his secret. I know this guy and you should listen to the interview. Yes, a bit hokey at first –who cares that he got revenge on his ex-wife–but a true story. There are LESSONS here.

Dear Reader,

If you’re a middle-aged guy, divorce is one of the worst things that can happen to you. It can ruin you, both financially and emotionally.

But I recently heard the story of a Ft. Lauderdale man named John  (Actually, John Doody of www.goldstockanalyst.com) who discovered an unusual moneymaking secret after going through a bitter divorce.

John says this secret has made him a multimillionaire over the past decade… even though his ex-wife took almost all of his assets. And he asked us if he could share his story with you.

In fact, he says he even went through the expense of having his transactions verified by an independent auditing firm… just so he could prove his incredible story to the world.

Click here to listen to John’s story.

Jan. 2014 Interview of John Doody (down 50% in 2013!) http://youtu.be/95gjTXIGsgU

Regards,

Will Bonner, Publisher, Diary of a Rogue Economist 

Who Wants to Analyze a Gold Stock?

If there is interest, we can work through a company in a few posts next week.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!

Activist Short-Selling

Easily offended

NBER short selling study finds Asensio to be the Pioneer of recently defined field.   See www.asensio.com  There are plenty of research reports and case studies on short-selling hyped frauds. A worthwhile education.

March 5th, 2014.  In January 2014 the National Bureau of Economic Research [“NBER”] published a behavioral finance article titled the first titled “How Constraining Are Limits to Arbitrage? Evidence from a Recent Financial Innovation.”  The study indentifies Manuel P. Asensio of Asensio & Company as the “pioneer” of short selling “arbitrage” and found that Asensio & Company’s short targets experienced the largest price correction among this recent class of short sellers during the study’s timeframe.   The study defines this recent class of arbitrage short seller as “information producers as arbitrageurs rather than as short-sellers, to distinguish them from uninformed short-sellers in the market.” 

The study describes a “recent financial innovation that allows limits to arbitrage to be sidestepped, and overvaluation thereby to be corrected” even in settings characterized by extreme costs of information discovery and severe short-sale constraints or limits.  Limits “interfere with arbitrage processes so that security prices can deviate from true values for extended periods of time” and include costs of discovering a mispriced security, the costs of the resources needed to exploit a mispricing and short-sale constraints and the risk that mispricing could get worse, forcing early liquidation of a position at a loss.  Limits mentioned in the study also include “sophisticated public relations campaigns against shorts” and targets that “put pressure on their shareholders to recall stock out on loan, to put a squeeze on short sellers.” Yet the study found that short selling arbitrage can succeed in correcting mispricing and generate cumulative abnormal profits “even in this uninviting setting.”

The study “arbitrageurs” expend considerable resources to identify overvalued companies and profitably correct overpricing.  It notes that short selling arbitrageurs reveal their information publicly as a way to sidestep the so-called limits and found evidence that “revealing the information voluntarily and thereby accelerating price discovery reduces the risk of the arbitrage strategy and sidesteps the arbs’ limited-resource constraint.”

The study found that “[f]or this strategy to work, critical that the information the arbs reveal to the market is credible – or else the longs will ignore it. We observe that the arbs in our sample argue their case by way of highly detailed reports which they post publicly and for free.  Compared to reports published by sell-side equity analysts at investment banks, which have a tendency to be bothoptimistic and biased.”

The study contributes to the “growing literature on the role of short sellers in producing and transmitting information in capital markets. There is little prior evidence on what short sellers know and how they acquire information. Our unique data allow us to observe the information discovery process at the level of individual information producers and to study how the information the arbs discover is then incorporated in security prices.”

The study found the short seller arbitrageur evidence ‘illustrates why financial markets need short sellers to function well. While some short sellers may indeed be speculators who do little more than destabilize share prices, as is often alleged, the short sellers in our sample are information producers who help correct mispricing and thereby help make markets more efficient. This is all the more remarkable given that many targets in our sample were held by highly sophisticated investors who apparently did not spot the overvaluation until it was too late.”

The study is available at http://www.nber.org/papers/w19834 

Book Club for The Intelligent Investor; Can a Company Have Too Much Debt? Free Courses

POWER OFF

Book Club for Value Investors (Discussion) http://www.moderngraham.com/

Graham & Doddsville – Issue 20 – Winter 2014

Can a Firm Have Too Much Debt

1988a_bpea_bernanke_campbell_friedman_summers

Is There Too Much Corporate Debt_Bernankie 1988

The above papers were written during the LBO craze of the late 1980s which, in turn, was driven by the all-time low in asset values of the early 1980s.

Liquidation and Debt Capacity   Worth a read!

Free Course with Yale’s Schiller on Financial Markets and Risk:

https://class.coursera.org/financialmarkets-001

Argument Clinic