Michael Burry Case Studies

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Michael Burry Case Studies (Donated by a reader)

Videos of Burry

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOP4Pt9jEXs&list=PLD6E619E8CCFA2059

All investors can learn from Mr. Burry. I admire his success as a self-taught investor. He is just a guy sitting in a room reading and thinking for himself. Take his advice, “Try to be unique in your own way; don’t try to be like another.”

Burry buying land and gold.  He seeks unique special situations.

HAPPY 4th of July!

18 responses to “Michael Burry Case Studies

  1. Awesome, thanks!

  2. This is great John.

    How were you able to pull some of these from WayBackMachine? I had found 85% of these, but it looks like you got 100%. Awesome!

    Have you ever gone through his Silicon Investor archives? Very interesting to watch his development as an investor over the course of 4.5 years.

    Also, did you used to be a member there? Someone with your name butted heads with Mr. Pink (Loeb) back in the day on a few stocks.

    • I did butt heads with Mr. Pink (Dan Loeb) on Actrade International. It turns out that Mr. Pink was right about Actrade. Fortunately, Amos Aharoni cut me off from communications after I asked him to break out his financial reporting. I then sold my stock and told my clients to sell–some did some didn’t.

      I don’t know how Loeb got the dirt on Aharoni’s activities in Israel, but he had better info than I. Lesson: You should not fool yourself no matter how close you are to a company that you know where all the skeletons are buried.

      Hats off to Loeb.

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  4. Oh, awesome — small world eh!?! Hey, we all make mistakes, that’s what the game is about… I know I sure have made more than I can count. Heck, there’s more than 1 fraud listed on VIC… all are good lessons for “warning signs.”

  5. Pingback: Michael Burry early 2000s stock recommendations | fund of well-conceived investments

  6. It’s interesting to go through these and notice that he seems to be sticking to things he can understood well enough to make an investment. He doesn’t analyze banks here or even insurers for the most part. (Clayton Homes had an insurance division is all)

  7. This is awesome. Made my day. Thank you!

  8. I’d been wondering about the specifics of his technical approach for awhile now. Also, I thought his use of technicals to handicap his confidence in his fundamental research was really interesting, mostly because of how much it goes against the traditional value mentality of having confidence in ones analysis and accumulating more on the dips. For me, Burry really illustrates that there is no absolute right approach to investing.

    I’m now wondering John, have you written any pieces on Soros? I feel safe in assuming you’ve read The Alchemy of Finance? I thought it was fantastic.

  9. Yes, I have read Soros’ book. You can do a search on his speeches and his other books. I don’t have anything.

    I don’t see much in Soros’ theory of reflexivity that isn’t in Austrian Business Cycle Theory and their Structure of Production. Easy credit due to suppressed interest rates leads to a boom in asset prices (currently now stocks and bonds) and the rising asset prices leads to larger loans/more credit issued until the price and production structure is unsustainable without MORE AND MORE credit growth. If the rate of credit growth slows, then bust. The process now goes into reverse.

    Take a look at the GDX for example. Note masseive volume, capitualtion selling in June. Tech. analysis simply reflects PAST human action which you can then make inferences on future action. Huge volume down and UP means a potential change in the market.

    Use the tools that work for YOU. NO ONE METHOD IS RIGHT. Choose what works FOR you.

    I have a mechanical program that shorts any Cramer stock recommendation. Annualized returns 23% over 8 years.

  10. I think Soros was more trying to use reflexivity as a means to debunk assertions by Economists that the “free market” naturally leads to 1. equilibrium conditions and 2. an optimal allocation of resources. But I see that similarity.

    Re your Cramer program, thats pretty fantastic. I’ve never watched his show, though I wouldn’t have expected him to be that bad (or good for you 🙂 ).

    Pardon my ignorance but one One more question if I may. In the case study, Dr. Burry remarks about his turn-over and its tax implications. Is he stating that at a 20% annual turn over – which I take to mean selling 20% of ones assets per year – that the benefits of short vs long-term capital gains taxes are negated? Any idea how he comes up with that?

  11. If there wasn’t a central banking, fractional reserve banking cartel, then booms and busts would be greatly ameliorated. Individual errors would tend to cancel each other.

    Booms and busts wouldn’t ordinarily occur–why have mass misallocation of resources unless price signals were distorted?

    Yes, the computer will wait a day after scanning cramer’s show transcript to sell short any Cramer rec. I check the results quarterly. So far so good 🙂

    I don’t know the answer to your question. To normalize earnings you need to look over a long timer period ten to fifteen years plus. To take advantage of mispricing, you typically need to hold three to five years to wait for full revaluation. Stock prices track EPS five years out.

    Google/Amazon books on John Templeton.

  12. Thanks, not sure if i’m missing something but the question was actually about turnover, taxes and Dr. Burry.

  13. I don’t really understand your question nor Burry’s thoughts.

    I would much prefer compounding capital over many years vs. taking short term gains. I don’t think one can buy at a discount and see the price/value close within two to three years unless one is involved in special situations.

    What are you trying to learn/implement?

  14. I just didn’t understand where he got that 20% number from, and also found it very interesting that his portfolio had such a high turnover rate.

  15. Pingback: Vem är Dr. Michael Burry? | Värdebyrån

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