An early sign of a turn: Gold vs. the Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB). Since gold is commodity money it is much more sensitive to changes in financial conditions than consumable commodities.
Offsides?
I like to take note of extremes. However, the amount of central bank monetary distortion is so huge (note negative interest rate on government debt, huge deficits, QE, etc.) that extremes can go to new levels but when investors are on one side of the boat–be careful.
Also, visit www.hussmanfunds.com
PS: Once I clear my backlog, I will return to our lessons in Deep Value and Quantitative Value. Plus post the links to the videos of valua investing classes.