Performance Panic; WHO are YOU?

Year-End Performance Panic



An unbiased appreciation of uncertainty is a conerstone of rationality–but it is not what people and organizations want. Extreme uncertainty is paralyzing under dangerous circumstances, and the admission that one is merely guessing is especially unacceptable when the stakes are high. Acting on pretended knowledge is often the preferred solution.”   –Daniel Kahneman

But no guarantee of a sell-off, just an indication of extreme momentum. Be fearful when others are greedy.







Not predicting a crash, but note how little risk is priced into many stocks!   Meanwhile, I am SELLING! to buy more gold and bonds.


If you don’t know who you are, this is an expensive place to find out. –Adam Smith in The Money Game

6 responses to “Performance Panic; WHO are YOU?

  1. Pingback: What we are reading on 12/15/2016 - UNDERVALUED STOCKS

  2. Right now the fundamentals do not appear to be bullish for gold, but then you need that to get everyone on one side of the boat (bearish).

    • I think the fundamentals are extremely bullish for gold. The FED has only done two 25-basis point rate hikes. which is still lower than any point before the 2008-09 recession. At this rate, they’ll be doing one 25-basis point hike per year. Considering that this is close to being the 3rd longest economic expansion in U.S. history, and so a recession is certainly due in the near future, what are they going to do when the recession finally comes? Take all that with the fact that the overwhelmingly majority of people now believe that gold doesn’t have good fundamentals in fact makes it have good fundamentals.

      • I agree that the sentiment is bearish because there are almost all the reasons to not own gold are prevalent: Rising dollar, rising stocks, rising interest rates, rising bank stocks, boom in high yield (for now). So has the last seller sold gold? I don’t know, but bearishness is high.

        My reason for interest in gold is the huge, growing pile of unpayable (out of economic growth) debt. Gold is money without liability and rarer and rarer relative to paper assets.

  3. Jesse Felder Retweeted
    Babak ‏@TN 16h16 hours ago
    today’s Daily #Sentiment Index for US Dollar 96% while #gold minuscule 4%, #silver 6%, Yen 7%, Swiss Franc 9%, inflection point? #contrarian

    When I see this, I dance naked through the streets because one always searches for the MARGINAL buyer or seller. Search for “certainty” in a random world.

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