Category Archives: Uncategorized

Back to the Future; NCAV Strategy

The Financial Report

By Janet Tavakoli

The Great Gold Conspiracy of 1869

William Worthington Fowler’s Twenty Years of Inside Life in Wall Street or Reflections of the Personal Experience of a Speculator is a joy to read.  (I second that opinion).

Twenty Years of Inside Life in Wall StreetFowler’s ripping yarn covers the New York traded markets from 1860-1880, a period that spanned the Civil War, the post war bubble, worthless paper money, the Black Friday Gold Panic of 1869, the Great Panic of 1873, and the consequent first and worst seven year Great Depression. Fowler witnessed how U.S. government paper money replaced specie leading to bubbles, panics, and crashes. It is time to revisit Fowler’s classic. Our current crisis is much more similar to the crash of 1873 and the first Great Depression than the 1929 crash and Depression. History repeats itself, especially in finance.

Conspiracies “R” U.S.

Fowler met the most influential financiers of the day including Jay Gould, James “Diamond Jim” Fisk, Jr., Cornelius Vanderbilt, Jacob Little, Daniel Drew, Leonard Jerome, Addison Jerome, David Groesbeck, and Henry Keep. Their fortunes rose and fell on margin, carry, and derivatives including puts, calls, and futures. They risked everything speculating in equities and a wide range of commodities including gold, silver, cotton, and more. Fowler’s tale entertains as he exposes the great corners, trading rings, conspiracies, bear twists, manipulations, and frauds.

Main stream media sometimes suggests that conspiracies are only for anonymous people who lurk on the internet, or people who send you poorly written emails from yahoo accounts. But conspiracies are as American as apple pie. One of my favorite conspiracies is The Great Gold Conspiracy of 1869. Fowler provides details of the New York financiers who cooked that one up.

“Here, sitting at their ease, surrounded by luxury, in a magnificent apartment, with shrewd lawyers at their elbow, two confederates plotted The Great Gold Conspiracy of 1869, and coolly organized the ruin of thousands.”

“From April, 1865, to September, 1869, a period of more than four years, the movements of gold had been brought about by artificial means, in conjunction with commercial causes, or rather pretexts. The price of Government Bonds abroad, wars or rumors of wars in Europe, disturbances of trade, the shipments of the precious metal in payment of our imports, sales of gold by our government; these and a thousand other strings were harped upon by the gold gamblers to produce those singular upward and downward oscillations in the price, which enriched the members of the Gold Board, while they disturbed the peace of commerce and beggared a host of infatuated outside dealers.”

“Wall Street, like history, repeats itself. Every summer, since 1865, there had been a rise in gold. In March, 1869, gold fell to 131. The astute intellect of Jay Gould now foresaw another opportunity to push up the price of gold, and having purchased $7,000,000 of it, by playing on the strings of the Cuban insurrection, the Alabama difficulties, the prospect of a war between France and Prussia, etc., terrified the bears and rushed up the price to 145. Emboldened by the success of this move, he formed a new and daring scheme.”

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An intelligent strategy for some of us http://seekingalpha.com/article/3999423-great-ncav-experiment-portfolio-inception

Seek Out the Opposing View; Passive Investing

gold-and-oil-markets

Ganging up on Gold

Because I hold gold related investments, I always seek out the opposing views to test my thesis.  On the recent 5% fall in gold, a chorus of bears came out.

Natixis offers three main arguments for this call, only one of which makes sense, at least “technically”, if you will:

“For 2017 and 2018, we think that the biggest factor influencing the price of gold is the expected path of U.S. interest rate hikes,” the analysts said. “Also, we do not expect further rate cuts by the [European Central Bank] or [Bank of Japan] as this is likely to damage their banking system especially in the case of Europe.”

Natixis economists are expecting to see the Federal Reserve raise interest rates by 25 basis points three times next year: June, September and December.

Not only will higher bond yields raise gold’s opportunity costs but they will also boost the U.S. dollar, providing another headwind for the precious metals, the analysts explained.”

So when you read the above, always ask for theoretical and empirical evidence of the authors claims.  Is there any long-term correlation between US interest rates and the dollar price of gold?  And why?   More here: Ganging up on gold

Some negative comments on gold is spot-on like

gold_usbusd_121016

http://tsi-blog.com/2016/10/the-gold-manipulation-silliness-continues/

More perspective……………..

negative-yields

tax-receipts

cash-balances

cash-incinerators

Passive Investing

……The most successful professional investors like Warren Buffett, Paul Tudor Jones, John Templeton, George Soros and Jim Rogers, know this well. Their methodologies are even built upon the idea that an intelligent investor can get ahead by taking advantage of those times the crowd becomes irrational, the antithesis of the EMH and MPT.

https://www.thefelderreport.com/2015/02/11/the-wisdom-of-insecurity-in-the-stock-market/

figure32q15

active-vs-passive

SEARCH TOOL

 

Search Tool to use words in OTC filings

http://conferencecalltranscripts.org/portfolio/#searches

A Reader’s Question on Modelling (Munger and Buffett’s View)

politics

A READER’S QUESTION

Just wanted to shoot you a quick email applauding you for putting together the “Ultimate Investor Checklist.”  investment_principles_and_checklists_ordway This may be the most valuable word document I have on my computer.

munger

Quick question, I’m a huge fan of Charlie Munger (currently am reading Poor Charlies Almanack)- In the checklist when he describes being a business owner Charlie says:

      • Ignores modeling forecasts for the next quarter, next year, or next ten years.
      • Ignores forecasting completely.

http://www.mymentalmodels.info/charlie-munger-reading-list/ (Search through this link on Munger’s Mental Models.

If Charlie Ignores modeling and forecasting, how does he go about estimating Intrinsic Value? I know Charlie has said in the past that he has never seen Warren Buffett use DCF, so how do they go about estimating Intrinsic Value?

John Chew: A good question.  First, a model is not reality but a metaphysical description of reality.   You probably should build a simple spread-sheet of sales, capex, taxes, etc. to understand the economic model of the business you are looking at–we are not all geniuses like Buffett or Munger.

But rather than have me say what I think Buffett would say, read the source. Note his analysis of Coke and Sees Candies:

Buffett_Lecture_Fla_Univ_Sch_of_Business_1998  Hope that helps!

Arbitrage by Buffett_Research  (just for Buffaholics)

JOB OPPORTUNITY at Value Fund/RISK

https://fundooprofessor.wordpress.com/  Book Mark this site (Risk)

Skydive

http://www.simoleonsense.com/job-opportunity-at-global-value-investing-shop/

Good luck!

MUST READ:

The Search Process

Manual of ideas

There has been a good discussion on the search process from several members of the Deep-VAlue Group at Google Groups.   Join so you can learn and share with them. http://csinvesting.org/2015/01/14/deep-value-group-at-google/ then follow the link in that post.

Here is part of the discussion

Detective-with-magnifying-glass

There’s more than one way to skin a cat, so I’m curious how others decide on where to focus their initial research efforts. 

Do you start with an industry you’re familiar with or have an interest in? Do you go off of recent news? Do you look at 52 week lows and go from there? Do you look at insider trades first and go from there?

This is a great question.  I’m an amateur (who hopes to someday go pro!).  I usually get my initial ideas from other investors.  I spend a lot of time reading investment theses.  If I like the company and its competitive position, I add it to my watch-list, then perform my own regular research updates.  Blogs, investment pitches for conferences, podcasts, magazine articles – all are great resources to discover new companies which have attractive economic characteristics.

An example is Input Capital, a canola streaming company based in Canada.  I initially heard about the company from reading a blog article, approximately 18 months ago.  The article piqued my interest, and from there I begun to conduct my own research.  Over the course of the 18 months, I gained an understanding for the business and drivers of value.  Then, in Nov. 2015, the price dropped over 40% in one day when it was revealed that 3 contracts were defaulted upon.  I updated my research over the weekend, talked to management, then made it my largest position.

The danger of sourcing ideas on other’s work is that you may not do your own.  But I think it can be a greater starting point for sourcing ideas, especially smaller, boring companies with little news or analyst coverage.  Just make sure you resist the temptation to get lazy.  I’ve gotten burned on that when I began investing in companies and not just ETFs.  It was JC Penny.  My investment was based on reading far too much into Ackman’s thesis and doing far too little of my own research.  I made the mistake of confusing the number of slides with the quality of research.  Not once did I, or Ackman for that matter, ask if JC Penny’s customers LIKED used coupons and buying items on sales.  Neither of us did the necessary “scuttlebutt” of actually *GASP* talking to JCP customers.  Lesson learnt: retail investing is a lot like political campaigning, it’s all about the ground game.

Hey all,

This is a great thread. I do a lot of what Ian talked about, but recently have started feeling that just reading investment pitches all day long isn’t the best idea. Not saying it shouldn’t be a serious tool in your arsenal, just I feel I need more balance. The old fashion way of just researching companies and industries where one can remain unbiased by outside opinion helps me recalibrate. Being able to maintain independence of thought is critical in investing. This might be obvious to some, but I figured I’d put it out there to see what the group thought.

We also need to a thread on investment process, a subject that is really fascinating to me. It’s an very individualized process that still can be honed by ideas from other investors.


CSInvesting.org:

Mr. Munger/Mr. Buffett would suggest that you start with the A’s and white-knuckle yourself through the 2,500 companies in Value-Line and Small-cap Value-Line.  Any major library in the USA should have it online. Better yet, page through the hard copy at the library. The_In-Depth_Guide_to_Reading_a_Value_Line_Research_Report  Now, many overseas readers may not have access to such a database, but some stock exchanges provide lists of companies.

Search is tied in intimately with your investment process which should contain:

  • Search
  • Valuation
  • Risk Management
  • You

Starting out with Value-Line is a great idea for a new investor. Eventually, you will have about 150 companies that are worth watching.

You can eliminate (with practice) many within seconds, but you will

  1. find unusual opportunities that may not be picked up by screens.
  2. build a wish list.  I would love to buy BCPC (Balchem) 35% lower. Ditto with CFX
  3. you build up a knowledge base in your head of various industries and the general financial metrics to compare.
  4. You can come up with your own investment ideas vs. being a late herder into ideas.

A full discussion is here: THE SEARCH PROCESS

Go where it is cheapest:http://mebfaber.com/2016/02/25/ranking-global-stock-markets-on-valuation/

DEVELOP YOUR OWN STYLE LIKE CHARLIE WATTS

For you non-drummers out there–did you pick up the Charlie Watts pattern?

https://youtu.be/1kUN1bYdplk?t=2m51s or view the legend: https://youtu.be/WT5uAIPFft8

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!

“Answers” to Hedge Fund Analyst Quiz on Gold

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We pick up from we were last: http://csinvesting.org/2016/02/11/analyst-quiz-part-ii/

Analytical point #1: CPI is a meaningless measure to determine the future dollar price of gold.  CPI is an arbitrary government statistic. You are comparing gold in US Dollars (apples) with an index of oranges, grapes, raisins, etc.)

You must have mentioned this to stay employed at Ackman’s hedge fund.

CPI vastly understates monetary debasement Think Differently About Purchasing Power

The Futility of Price-Inflation Measurements

The practical problems with price indexes such as the CPI are the issues of which prices are to be measured and what “weights” will be assigned to what goods. Another problem is deciding what to do about changes in quality. For example, what do you do when Apple introduces a new and improved iPhone at the same price as the previous version?

To deal with this, government statisticians systematically increase the weights for goods that are going down in price and reduce the weights of things are going up in price. If the quality of a good goes up, the statisticians “hedonically” reduce the price of the good.

Those sorts of adjustments do not seem fair to most normal people. If you are eating more ramen noodles and fewer lamb chops you can take little comfort in the fact that that the CPI is staying inside the Fed’s target range. Moreover, under the system of hedonic adjustments, every time entrepreneurs and engineers come up with better products for consumers at lower prices, the Fed takes credit for keeping inflation under control.

https://mises.org/library/many-failures-cpi

Why hasn’t the CPI picked up since 2008? https://mises.org/library/problems-cpi

The first thing to keep in mind is that the CPI is not an economic variable. It is a statistic that at best gives an inaccurate picture of an economic phenomenon: inflation. To calculate the monthly CPI, the US Department of Labor takes a weighted average of prices of various things that consumers purchase, and then its statisticians try to figure out the various proportions of different items in a “mythical” household budget. For example, the statisticians may hold that housing costs are 30 percent of household expenditures, food costs 20 percent, gasoline another 15 percent, and so on.

https://mises.org/library/whats-wrong-cpi

Analytical point #2: Gold maintains its purchasing power over

L O N G periods of time. Gold is the “golden constant” (Jastram).  Look at research over the past 600 years: : RoyJastram-TheGoldenConstant

Jastram arrived at four conclusions:

  • Gold is a poor hedge against major inflation. (Jastram finished his book in 1977, only 6 years after the link between gold and the dollar was broken. For the period prior to 1971, gold was fixed in price to the US dollar or British Sterling.
  • Gold appreciates in operational wealth in major deflations. Of course if gold is money (it is!) then it should appreciate relative to the goods it can be exchanged for.
  • Gold is an abysmal/ineffective hedge against yearly commodity price increases.
  • Nevertheless gold maintains its purchasing power over long periods of time. This is not because gold eventually moves towards commodity prices but because commodity prices return to gold.

In contrast in the late twentieth and early twenty-first century it was the market price of old which adjusted so that the purchasing power of gold relative to general prices returned to a constant.

Other main points to glean are:

  • Gold is money – J.P. Morgan
  • Gold maintains its purchasing power over decades but not necessarily year-to- year.
  • Gold at the “Attila effect.” Jastram points out that throughout history men and women have turned to gold in times of distress, whether political, economic or personal.  Gold is sought for two basic needs: the imperative to survive and to be secure; and the desire to possess and enjoy beauty.
  • Gold, unlike all paper-based assets, is no one’s liability. It therefore has a near-unique “safe-haven” quality since its value cannot be eroded by any declining of the creditworthiness of its issuer unlike fiat currencies.

In choosing the title The Golden Constant, Jastram did not imply that there was an absolute mathematical rule to which the purchasing power of gold adhered, but rather that gold exhibited the qualities of constancy in a wider sense. The fact that gold is almost immune to corrosion, rust or decay is one element of this. The metal has an enduring attraction for humankind. Also, the purchasing power of gold, while in fluctuation, returns over the centuries and in different countries to a broadly stable level is testament to all these elements of its constancy.  How many grams of gold to purchase cattle in Rome vs. today in Cedar City, Utah?  Not much difference despite the thousands of years of time and the different local.

You then advise Ackman that if investors lose faith in Central Banks’ ability to manipulate both credit and investors, then gold might be a safer place to hold wealth than dollars.  You then instruct Mr. Ackman to carefully view this video.

http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Kitco-News/1176/2016-02-18/These-Three-Things-Will-Lead-to-Titanic-Battle-For-Gold-Prices-Best-Selling-Author

In all seriousness, you should have learned two concepts:

Be careful in comparing data sets.  CPI is useless.

If you choose to research an asset or money, then study ALL its history. Don’t look at just the most recent past.

READINGS

http://greenbackd.com/2016/02/18/harvard-business-review-reviews-deep-value/   Follow the links!

The key to booms and busts https://mises.org/library/malinvestments-and-interest-rates

Economic-Depressions-Their-Cause-and-Cure_4

whoisafraidofrecession-incrementumchartbook4

HAVE A GOOD WEEKEND!

Video of The Fed at Work

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Federal Reserve members at work

SEARCH STRATEGY: HIGH ROE Companies in Canada

spirit

DKAM-ROE-Reporter-January-2016   High ROE Companies in Canada

Screening_Weed out the losers

Search-Critieria-Suggestions

RISK MANAGEMENT

Videos of Investors

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Videos of Great Investors

 

HAVE A GOOD WEEKEND!