Yearly Archives: 2012

What is Strategy?

Be deliberate; be thorough; be aware–Zen Master

Strategy is big – Bruce Greenwald.

Michael Porter

Greenwald credited Michael Porter for his work on strategy and his focus on competitors. Review here a Harvard Business School article: http://www.ipocongress.ru/download/guide/article/what_is_strategy.pdf

Five Forces Industry Analysis in Value Vault and here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/77131692/Five-Forces-Industry-Analysis

Mauboussin Articles on Strategy

Measuring the Moat on Michael Mauboussin’s website.
http://www.capatcolumbia.com/Articles/measuringthemoat.pdf

Network Economics: http://www.scribd.com/doc/77133968/CA-Network-Economics-Mauboussin

Review of Competition Demystified first 30 pages:

Anyone running a business knows that competition matters and that strategy is important.

Don’t confuse strategy with planning to attract customers or increase margins. Goals are not strategy.

Strategies are those plans that focus on the actions and responses of competitors. Strategic thinking is about creating, protecting and exploiting competitive advantages.

Some consultants call it singularity. What they mean is that for a firm to earn profits above a minimum normal return, a company must be able to do something that its competitors cannot.  With a universe of companies seeking profitable opportunities for investment, the returns in an unprotected industry will be driven down to levels where there is no “economic profit,” that is, no returns above the costs of the invested capital. If demand conditions enable any single firm to earn unusually high returns, other companies will notice the same opportunity and flood in.

Both history and theory support the truth of this proposition. As more firms enter, demand is fragmented among them. Costs per unit rise as fixed costs are spread over fewer units sold, prices fall, and the high profits that attracted the new entrants disappear. If the company is on a level playing field then competition will erode the returns of all players to a uniform minimum (Reversion to the Mean or “RTM”)

It is now 25 years ago that Harvard professor, Michael E. Porter wrote “Competitive Strategy“. Essentially Porter says you need to consider Five Competitive Forces to analyse the attractiveness of an industry for a company.

Prof. Greenwald suggests, in most cases, studying only one factor will do: Potential Entrants. They claim the Barriers to Entry is by far the most important factor in business strategy.

“Either the existing firms within the market are protected by barriers to entry or they are not,” the authors write.”

Firms operating without competitive advantages should concentrate all their efforts on being efficient;

  • Companies that do have competitive advantages need to design strategy with their competitors in mind;
  • Most competition is over pricing or capacity, and there are established techniques for analyzing these situations and devising the right strategies to handle them;
  • Cooperation between competitors is possible and beneficial and can be accomplished without breaking the law;
  • In an increasingly global economy, competitive advantages still stem primarily from local conditions. Even large international firms need to understand and protect the local sources of their success.

Most importantly, according to the authors there are really only three sustainable competitive advantages;

  1. Supply. A company has this edge when it controls an important resource: in Hollywood, for example, it may mean having Julia Roberts or Tom Cruise star in a movie. Or a company may have a proprietary technology, like a prescription drug, that is protected by patent.
  2. Demand. A company can control a market because customers are loyal to it, either out of habit – to a brand name, for example – or because the cost of switching to a different product is too high. Companies often put off changing software vendors, for example, for that reason.
  3. Economies of scale. If your operating costs remain fixed while output increases, you can gain a significant edge because you can offer your product at lower cost without sacrificing margins.

The goal of this book is to present a step by step process for strategic analysis.”

Management time and focus are the most important resources of a firm.

WHAT IS STRATEGY?

Strategic decisions are those whose results depend on the actions and reactions of other economic entities. Tactical decisions are ones that can be made in isolation and hinge largely on effective implementation. Understanding this distinction is key to developing effective strategy.

STRATEGIC VS. TACTICAL ISSUES

Strategic choices, in contrast to tactical ones, are outward looking. They involve two issues that every company must face.

  1. The first issue is selecting the arena of competition
  2. The second strategic issue involves the management of those external agents.

You should have a firm foundation to complete your Wal-Mart case study. If I am going too fast, tell me.

 

CASE STUDY on Wal-Mart Stores’ Discount Operations; Richard Feynman Video on An Original Thinker

Feynman Video on No Ordinary Genius

Richard Feynman was one of my heroes. Start your 2012 on an inspiring note by watching the video (link) below.

Throughout history, the Ayn Rand pointed out, the greatest heroes of mankind have been original thinkers who rejected the core beliefs of their societies, formed new ideas, and struggled for years against social norms to have the new theories accepted. Socrates, Copernicus, Galileo, Darwin, and Pasteur are all examples of this phenomenon.

An individual—a thinking individual—is not a helpless pawn of his society, its educational system, and its core beliefs. He is able to look at the realities of the world, at nature, at facts, and think independently. This is how many individuals come to reject the beliefs of their families, their clergy, their teachers, their professors, their governments, and their societies in general. This is how independent freethinkers have arisen, battled against the entrenched conservative beliefs of their societies, and ultimately established the truth of their new theories. –Andrew Bernstein

Richard Feynman is no ordinary genius. He was one of the world’s greatest physicists who loved Go-Go Girls (yeah!) and bongo drums–an inspiring 90 minute video on a creative, free-thinker. Lessons for the investor?

http://youtu.be/Fzg1CU8t9nw

Wal-Mart (“WMT”) Case Study

Wal-Mart Case Study on its Stores’ Discount Operations (9-387-018).  Please read the first 112 pages of Competition Demystified in the Value Vault[1]. You will find the above case there. Please describe why you think Wal-Mart has been so successful? Please support your assumptions with data and figures from the case.  Will WMT continue to be successful? How would you determine if WMT will maintain its success.  What about competition? Hint: Sam Walton was a superb entrepreneur and CEO but leave him out of your analysis.  For those who wish to learn more about Wal-Mart and Sam Walton then go here: http://www.amazon.com/Sam-Walton-Made-America/dp/0553562835/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1325609378&sr=8-1

You have until Monday of next week to complete this case.  To get yourself in the mood to complete a case study: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4j25Pj4JyQ and part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJ7aVrtTbg0

Yes, it is lonely and hard work, but you can save $80,000 per year (yes, you don’t receive the MBA credential).

This case will take you a few hours but the effort will be rewarded because you must know the sources of competitive advantage for one of the greatest companies of all-time.

We will begin to review your 112 pages of reading this week plus include other case studies to reinforce concepts.

A blog on investing and competitive analysis from a student of mine and fine investor: http://thefallibleinvestor.com/

Quiz on Economic Thinking

We may have to read Capitalism by Reisman (in VALUE VAULT plus the Study Guide on Capitalism) to deepen our understanding of costs, prices, economies of scale and diminishing marginal utility.

Can someone reply to these questions?

  1. What is inflation?
  2. Do rising wages cause inflation?
  3. Should businesses pay an excess profits tax on the raising of prices of their products if excessive?

Take no more than three minutes.

May 2012 exceed your expectations.

[1] To enter the VALUE VAULT please email me at aldridge56@aol.com with VALUE VAULT in the subject heading.

Questions from Readers-Emerging Franchises & Fusion Investing

Questions from a Reader:

Subject: Competition Demystified+Fusion Investing

QUESTION

I am currently reading Bruce Greenwald’s Competition Demystified, and I am not finished. However, I remember asking you before about emerging franchise, and you replied that Prof. Greenwald covered this topic in the book. I would appreciate if you can direct me to this chapter and where he exactly tackles the strategic issue of emerging franchise and company strategic actions.

Answer: Let me be sure we have the same definition for emerging franchise. This would be a franchise in its early to middle stage of (typically rapid)growth like Wal-Mart (WMT) in the early 1970s and 1980s as it grew through local economies of scale on the edges of its local territorial advantage. WMT could earn high returns while also redeploying its capital at the same high  returns (high marginal returns to capital) thus funding its growth and compounding capital at high rates for a 20-year period. No wonder WMT created more millionaires than any other company in history.  Now, of course, WMT can not grow by redeploying its capital at the same rates since it has saturated the US market, and the company does not have unique cost advantages in foreign markets. The first two cases on Wal-Mart and Coors will cover local economies of scale. See pages 77 to 112 of the book, Competition Demystified.

Then you have entrant strategies for a company trying to enter against established incumbents like Kiwi enters the airline industry–see pages 238 to 254. The entrant has to go into niches that are not of interest to the larger incumbents, then build from there. Note the Japanese Car companies entrant strategies into the US auto market–from small, fuel-efficient cars to Lexus! The Japanese took market share from the Americans.

Now if you are thinking of smaller, dominant companies in their niches, you might enjoy reading, Hidden Champions of the 21st Century: Success Strategies of Unknwn World Market Leaders by Hermann Simon (2009)

QUESTION 

  1. What is your take on Fusion investing approach (blending Fundamental (value approach) +Technical + Quant+ behavioral + intermarket ). I noticed some successful money managers who are in the minority adopted this approach successfully over long periods of time. Names like : John Palicka, who this week published his book on fusion investing, John Bolton and Michael Burry).. http://www.amazon.com/Fusion-Analysis-Fundamental-Technical-Risk-Adjusted/dp/0071629386#_

Mr. Palicka is  a CFA and CMT. The value of a CFA designation: http://www.businessweek.com/bschools/content/apr2011/bs20110426_844533.htm

Answer: I don’t know if John Bolton and Michael Burry use technical analysis, but any tool which helps you understand who is on the other side of the trade from you is helpful. If I saw Seth Klarman, Einhorn, and Buffett on the Buy-side against my short position, I would seriously recheck my work or at least find out their reasons for owning the company. You have to respect the other side or else you discover the fool is you.

I am not an expert on technical analysis but I do know that when I traded soybeans and T-Bonds on the trading floor in Chicago (1980s) finding out who the supra-marginal buyer or seller was and then doing the opposite was almost a guarantee of making money at least in the short-term (one hour to three days). The price would rally up for two or three days into long-term resistance and the chart breakout players would come into the market following the price, and I would sell responsively into their demand because the market orders were from small, weaker speculators whom were buying from commercial hedgers. I wanted to be with the strong against the weak.

If you see prices flat-lining for several years, it means that there is little new supply or demand, and people become used to this price level. If there is a breakout to the upside (especially if the marginal cost of production is above average costs), then I would buy on the higher price. There are economic reasons behind the price rise. However, what possible edge can you have (Barriers to Entry?) reading charts since everyone sees the same thing as you do? nGo where you have the biggest edge.

But I do not know in what exact proportions to “fuse” all the different methods.  All I am trying to do is figure out what something is worth and then pay a whole lot less for it. For most companies and for much of the time, I can’t figure it out. But there are certain times when the world goes crazy and prices become extreme then even I can find opportunity.

I can guarantee that too much complexity will hurt your results.  Also, I am extremely skeptical that Mr. Palicka with a CFA, CMT writing a book will provide anything new.  Having a CFA, CMT may not hurt you, but I do believe those designations are neither necessary nor sufficient to help you as an investor. I know that comment may find much disagreement, but I am happy to post such rebuttals in the comments section. At the risk of alienating some readers, I will call it; like I see it–like the umpire says.

I have heard Joel G. explain that despite going to Wharton MBA school, he learned value investing through Graham and Buffett and then his application of those principles.  There is no secret to investing–just relentless application over years with the right framework and independent thinking.

If you want a philosophical background to think for yourself then read, Atlas Shrugged or The Fountainhead by Ayn Rand.

QUESTION

I would also appreciate if you can share your reading list with us.

Do you mean a recommended list or what I am reading now? My current reading list is below. Since I live five blocks from a good research library, I can check out many interesting books on diverse subjects.  Also, I often just skim books.

  1. The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich by William Shirer–with the passage of the expanded “Patriot” Act, the U.S. President can arbitrary detain, torture and execute American citizens without Habeas Corpus and Due Process provided that they are “Terrorists.” How convenient. I don’t like my neighbor because his dog uses my motorcycle like a fire-hydrant.  He makes the perfect terrorist suspect don’t you think? …….So I want to study the lessons of Fascism and totalitarianism.
  2. The Great A&P and The Struggle for Small Business America by Marc Levinson. This books shows that corporate goliaths are not immune to the insistent forces of competition and change. Perhaps I can find a case study here.
  3. The Ikea Edge by Anders Dahlvig. Some people read Wall Street Research, but I find business histories on companies and CEO’s  a great education for studying competitive advantage and how companies evolve–the inevitable ebb and flow of success and failure.
  4. Uprising by George Magnus. Will emerging markets shape or shake the world economy? I have traveled and worked in Brazil, Cuba and other countries. I am not so enthused as the public hype about emerging markets.  Take China–how does a dictatorial regime that is directing the banking sector (similar to the Fed in the US) not go through a massive boom/bust? Brazil’s business regulations require 200,000 pages of fine print. Absurd! No wonder large segments of the economy operate on the black market. Using the best lawyers, we opened a business in Brazil after ten months–ten months of paperwork, delays and denial.

Thanks for the questions.