the-base-rate-view-by-mauboussin I wonder if readers will find this useful. We last discussed base rates here: http://csinvesting.org/2016/09/29/hedge-fundfamily-office-consulting-job/
the-base-rate-view-by-mauboussin I wonder if readers will find this useful. We last discussed base rates here: http://csinvesting.org/2016/09/29/hedge-fundfamily-office-consulting-job/
Posted in Free Courses, Risk Management, Valuation Techniques
Tagged Base Rates, Mauboussin
I updated this post http://wp.me/p1PgpH-WC with two articles from Montier and Mauboussin on the Errors and Dangers of using the DCF approach.
Thanks to a reader in Norway!
I occasionally update prior posts with additional material so be aware that this blog is fluid.
Why not invest your assets in the companies you really like? As Mae West said, “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful”.
Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing. –Warren Buffett
Buffett’s investing abilities were discussed here:http://wp.me/p1PgpH-ww
Mauboussin, a market strategist (cheer leader for Bill Miller?) writes painfully about finding ex ante investment management skill. http://contenta.mkt1710.com/lp/26966/115068/
MauboussinOnStrategySeekingPMSkill_MIPX014394.pdf
Two studies are mentioned in his article on index investing
Takeaways:
I am not a big fan of the academic jargon that fills this article, but some readers may gain the insight that I had reinforced–mostly, institutional investors do NOT earn an adequate return AFTER fees for investors because they are closet indiexers with high fees. Buyer beware.
And, if you are an individual investor, concentrate in your best ideas.
Posted in Investing Careers, Investing Gurus, Risk Management
Tagged Indexing, Investmebnt Skill, Mauboussin, Tracking Error
Be deliberate; be thorough; be aware–Zen Master
Strategy is big – Bruce Greenwald.
Michael Porter
Greenwald credited Michael Porter for his work on strategy and his focus on competitors. Review here a Harvard Business School article: http://www.ipocongress.ru/download/guide/article/what_is_strategy.pdf
Five Forces Industry Analysis in Value Vault and here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/77131692/Five-Forces-Industry-Analysis
Mauboussin Articles on Strategy
Measuring the Moat on Michael Mauboussin’s website.
http://www.capatcolumbia.com/Articles/measuringthemoat.pdf
Network Economics: http://www.scribd.com/doc/77133968/CA-Network-Economics-Mauboussin
Anyone running a business knows that competition matters and that strategy is important.
Don’t confuse strategy with planning to attract customers or increase margins. Goals are not strategy.
Strategies are those plans that focus on the actions and responses of competitors. Strategic thinking is about creating, protecting and exploiting competitive advantages.
Some consultants call it singularity. What they mean is that for a firm to earn profits above a minimum normal return, a company must be able to do something that its competitors cannot. With a universe of companies seeking profitable opportunities for investment, the returns in an unprotected industry will be driven down to levels where there is no “economic profit,” that is, no returns above the costs of the invested capital. If demand conditions enable any single firm to earn unusually high returns, other companies will notice the same opportunity and flood in.
Both history and theory support the truth of this proposition. As more firms enter, demand is fragmented among them. Costs per unit rise as fixed costs are spread over fewer units sold, prices fall, and the high profits that attracted the new entrants disappear. If the company is on a level playing field then competition will erode the returns of all players to a uniform minimum (Reversion to the Mean or “RTM”)
It is now 25 years ago that Harvard professor, Michael E. Porter wrote “Competitive Strategy“. Essentially Porter says you need to consider Five Competitive Forces to analyse the attractiveness of an industry for a company.
Prof. Greenwald suggests, in most cases, studying only one factor will do: Potential Entrants. They claim the Barriers to Entry is by far the most important factor in business strategy.
“Either the existing firms within the market are protected by barriers to entry or they are not,” the authors write.”
Firms operating without competitive advantages should concentrate all their efforts on being efficient;
Most importantly, according to the authors there are really only three sustainable competitive advantages;
The goal of this book is to present a step by step process for strategic analysis.”
Management time and focus are the most important resources of a firm.
WHAT IS STRATEGY?
Strategic decisions are those whose results depend on the actions and reactions of other economic entities. Tactical decisions are ones that can be made in isolation and hinge largely on effective implementation. Understanding this distinction is key to developing effective strategy.
STRATEGIC VS. TACTICAL ISSUES
Strategic choices, in contrast to tactical ones, are outward looking. They involve two issues that every company must face.
You should have a firm foundation to complete your Wal-Mart case study. If I am going too fast, tell me.
Posted in Competitive Analysis
Tagged Competition Demystified, Mauboussin, Porter's Five Forces, Strategy
I enjoy reading the irreverent James Altucher: http://www.jamesaltucher.com/2011/11/how-to-have-more-common-sense/
Sometimes you can find interesting articles on investing here-subscribe for free: http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/subscribe
Research Report on the Real Effects of High Government Debt: http://www.bis.org/publ/othp16.pdf
The end of the welfare state is now in process. High government debt hurts future growth. The report doesn’t discuss the cause of the problems only the impending effects. The parasite (govt.) has sucked the host (private enterprise) dry. So….ongoing volatility will be our friend as governments try to avoid the inevitable.
https://www.lmcm.com/default.asp?P=868060&S=868156 His articles can be of interest though somewhat too intellectual/academic for my tastes.
Prices rising but still there is a call for pursuing a failed policy. Conventional “Economists” and pundits haven’t learned in 200 years:
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/11/bartlett-calls-for-more-money-printing.html
The average rent for a Manhattan apartment in October was $3,341, that’s 7% higher than October, 2010, reports the NY Daily News. Rents are just $53 off their all-time high of $3,394 reached pre-crisis in May 2007. The vacancy rate in October was 1.18%, below October 2010’s rate of 1.24%.
Articles of interest:http://mises.org/daily/5796/The-Clear-Language-of-the-Austrian-School and http://mises.org/daily/1533/Housing-Too-Good-to-Be-True