Sentiment: The Temperature is Rising……


I made a wrong mistake! –Yogi Berra

What the #$%^@! Happened?

I am still working on my advice to an investor. Also, I am having to sell stocks that have reached my targets (ORI, NVS, MMM, etc.) so cash builds up and finding opportunities takes more digging.

The Bull Case:

Bears throwing in the towel–Will the market EVER go down:  (CNBC Video/Article)

And the scary Bear Case:

The Bear Market of 2009 felt like this:

Doesn’t feel like that now does it?  My self inflicted advice is to look from the bottom-up, but do not become complacent. I am not calling a top, just realize that risks rise when fear declines. Maintain your standards.

Be careful out there!

Switch Sides:

Sentiment Survey Results as of 1/23/2013
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months; individuals are polled from the ranks of the AAII membership on a weekly basis. Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period.

Survey Results

Sentiment Survey
ResultsWeek ending 1/23/2013 Data represents what direction members feel the stock market will be in the next 6 months.
Bullish 52.3%
up 8.4
Neutral 23.4%
down 5.3
Bearish 24.3%
down 3.1
Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

Change from last week:
Bullish: +8.4
Neutral: -5.3
Bearish: -3.1

Long-Term Average:
Bullish: 39.0%
Neutral: 30.5%
Bearish: 30.5%

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