Category Archives: Risk Management

The Wheel of Fortune: Mean Reversion (Part 1)

graves

Last post on Chapter 4 in Quantitative Valuehttp://csinvesting.org/?p=10730 . Let’s get back to our course on Deep Value.

Let’s go back to DEEP VALUE, Chapter 5: A Clockwork Market: Mean reversion and the Wheel of Fortune.

As a value investor you are doing either:

  1. Buying a franchise, where barriers to entry allow for profitable growth, before mean reversion sets in or
  2. Buying assets where the normalized earnings’ power of those assets is below norm (Asset value = Earnings Power Value) and earnings’ power will mean revert to normal.

Therefore the concept of Regression to the Mean is powerful.  By putting the words, “Many shall be restored that now are fallend and many shall fall that now are in honor” on the facing page of Security Analysis, Graham gave the most prominent position in his seminal text to the idea that Fortuna’s wheel turns too for securities, lowering those that have risen and lifting those that have fallen.  The line, from Horace’s Ars Poetica, echoes the phrase spoken by the wise men of legend who boiled down the history of mortal affairs into the four words, “This too will pass.”  This is regression toward the mean. (p. 79).

The more extreme the initial price movement, the greater will be the subsequent adjustment in the opposite direction. There tends to be a price trend before reversal. The reasons are manifold, but the most obvious is that the trials aren’t independent—our own trading decisions are affected by the buying or selling preceding our trade.

Keynes discussed this phenomenon here:

https://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/economics/keynes/general-theory/ch12.htm or John Maynard Keynes and his life as an investor, Keynes as an investor

Two economists known for research into both market behavior and individual decision-making, Werner De Bondt and Richard Thaler, theorized that it is this overreaction to meaningless price movements that creates the conditions for mean reversion. Note page 800 in the link Does Stock Market Overreact—  the loser and winner portfolios.  Losers win out.

In a second study, Further Evidence of Inv Overreaction Thaler, Thaler and De Bondt revisited the research from a new perspective.  They hypothesized that the mean reversion they obserbed in stock prices in the first study might have been caused by investors focusing too much on the short-term. this fixation on the recent past and failure to look beyond the immediate future would cause investors to miscalculate future earnings by failing to account for mean reversion.  If earnings were also mean reversing, then extreme stock price increases and decreases might, paradoxically, be predictive of mean-reversion not just in stock prices, but in earnings too.  A stock price that has fallen a great deal becomes a good candidate for subsequent earnings growth, a vice versa for a stock price that has gone up a lot.  As you can see from the two research reports that the undervalued portfolio delivered better earnings and price performance.

The above research stand the conventional wisdom on its head and show compelling evidence for mean reversion in stocks in a variety of forms.

Buffett Discusses Mean Reversion in the Stock Market

Buffett_on_1999_Stock_Market_-_Fortune_Article & 2008 Market Call and a MUST READ: A Study of Market History through Graham Babson Buffett and Others

In the 1964 to 1981 period, Buffett wrote, U.S. GNP almost quintuples, rising 373 percent. The market, by contrast, went nowhere.

The evidence is that valuation, rather than economic growth, determines investment returns at the market and country level. Research suggests that chasing growth economies is akin to chasing overvalued stocks, and generates disappointing results. See

The growth illusion

Alas, this is not the case. Work done by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton at the London Business School established this back in 2005. Over the 17 countries they studied, going back to 1900, there was actually a negative correlation between investment returns and growth in GDP per capita, the best measure of how rich people are getting.  In a second test, they took the five-year growth rates of the economies and divided them into quintiles. The quintle of countries with the highest growth rate over the previous five years, produced average returns over the following year of 6%; those in the slowest-growing quintile produced returns of 12%. In a third test, they looked at the countries and found no statistical link between one year’s GDP growth rate and the next year’s investment returns.

Why might this be? One likely explanation is that growth countries are like growth stocks; their potential is recognised and the price of their equities is bid up to stratospheric levels. The second is that a stockmarket does not precisely represent a country’s economy – it excludes unquoted companies and includes the foreign subsidiaries of domestic businesses. The third factor may be that growth is siphoned off by insiders – executives and the like – at the expense of shareholders.

Paul Marson, the chief investment officer of Lombard Odier, has extended this research to emerging markets. He found no correlation between GDP growth and stockmarket returns in developing countries over the period 1976-2005. A classic example is China; average nominal GDP growth since 1993 has been 15.6%, the compound stockmarket return over the same period has been minus 3.3%. In stodgy old Britain, nominal GDP growth has averaged just 4.9%, but investment returns have been 6.1% per annum, more than nine percentage points ahead of booming China.

What does work? Over the long run (but not the short), it is valuation; the higher the starting price-earnings ratio when you buy a market, the lower the return over the next 10 years. That is why buying shares back in 1999 and 2000 has provided to be such a bad deal.

High Growth Depresses Future Stock Returns

Why does high growth seem to depress stock market returns and low growth seem to generate high stock market returns?  The market ALREADY recognizes the high growth nation’s potential, and bids the price of its equities too high. Market participants become overly optimistic during periods of high growth, driving up the prices of stocks and lowering long term returns, and become too pessimistic during busts, selling down stocks and creating e conditions for high long-term returns.  More research on that here:

  1. Jay_Ritter_paper_14_August Economic Growth and Stock Returns
  2. value-vs-glamour-a-global-phenomenon
  3. Blinded by Growth

I will finish this chapter in the next post. If you do not have DEEP VALUE or Quantitative Value, then join the deep value group found here: http://csinvesting.org/2015/01/14/deep-value-group-at-google/ and I will send.

If you only understand one concept besides Margin of Safety in investing then let it be Reversion to the Mean.

Mark Twain Falls for Silver Fever (A Study in Bubbles)

SilverStock_Certificate_1863

Silver FeverEvidence of bubbles has accelerated since the [2007-2009 financial] crisis.
~ Robert Shiller (“Irrational Exuberance,” 2015).The celebrated author and humorist Samuel Clemens (pen name Mark Twain) documented his experiences in the Nevada mining stock bubble, and his writings are one of the earliest (and certainly the most humorous) firsthand accounts of involvement in a speculative mania.

After a brief stint as a Confederate militiaman during the beginning of the U.S. Civil War, Clemens purchased stagecoach passage west, to Nevada, where his brother had been appointed Secretary of the Territory. In Nevada, Clemens began working as a reporter in Virginia City, in one of Nevada’s most productive silver- and gold-mining regions. He enviously watched prospecting parties departing into the wilderness, and he quickly became “smitten with the silver fever.”

Clemens and two friends soon went out in search of silver veins in the mountains. As Clemens tells it, they rapidly discovered and laid claim to a rich vein of silver called the Wide West mine. The night after they established their ownership, they were restless and unable to sleep, visited by fantasies of extravagant wealth: “No one can be so thoughtless as to suppose that we slept, that night. Higbie and I went to bed at midnight, but it was only to lie broad awake and think, dream, scheme.”

Clemens reported that in the excitement and confusion of the days following their discovery, he and his two partners failed to begin mining their claim. Under Nevada state law, a claim could be usurped if not worked within 10 days. As they scrambled, they didn’t start working, and they lost their claim to the mine.  His dreams of sudden wealth were momentarily set back.

But Clemens had a keen ear for rumors and new opportunities. Some prospectors who found rich ore veins were selling stock in New York City to raise capital for mining operations. In 1863, Clemens accumulated stocks in several such silver mines, sometimes as payment for working as a journalist. In order to lock in his anticipated gains from the stocks, he made a plan to sell his silver shares either when they reached $100,000 in total value or when Nevada voters approved a state constitution (which he thought would erode their long-term value).

In 1863, funded by his substantial (paper) stock wealth, Clemens retired from journalism. He traveled west to San Francisco to live the high life. He watched his silver mine stock price quotes in the newspaper, and he felt rich: “I lived at the best hotel, exhibited my clothes in the most conspicuous places, infested the opera. . . . I had longed to be a butterfly, and I was one at last.”

Yet after Nevada became a state, Clemens continued to hold on to his stocks, contrary to his plan. Suddenly, the gambling mania on silver stocks ended, and without warning, Clemens found himself virtually broke.

“I, the cheerful idiot that had been squandering money like water, and thought myself beyond the reach of misfortune, had not now as much as fifty dollars when I gathered together my various debts and paid them.”

Clemens was forced to return to journalism to pay his expenses. He lived on meager pay over the next several years. Even after his great literary and lecture-circuit success in the late nineteenth century, he continued to have difficulty investing wisely. In later life he had very public and large debts, and he was forced to work, often much harder than he wanted, to make ends meet for his family.

Clemens had made a plan to sell his silver stock shares when Nevada became a state. His rapid and large gains stoked a sense of invincibility. Soon he deviated from his stock sales plan, stopped paying attention to the market fundamentals, and found himself virtually broke.

Clemens was by no means the first or last person to succumb to mining stock excitement. The World’s Work, an investment periodical published decades later, in the early 1900s, was beset by letters from investors asking for advice on mining stocks. The magazine’s response to these letters was straightforward:  “Emotion plays too large a part in the business of mining stocks. Enthusiasm, lust for gain, gullibility are the real bases of this trading. The sober common sense of the intelligent businessman has no part in such investment.” (from Meir Statman)

While the focus of market manias changes – mining, biotech, Chinese stocks, housing, etc… – the outline of a speculative bubbles remains remarkably similar over the centuries.  Today’s newsletter examines the latest research into speculative bubbles and looks at how we can apply that knowledge, with examples of the recent booms (bubbles?) in Chinese stocks and Biotech.  This newsletter is much longer than usual letter, in part because the topic is both complex and important.  Skip ahead to the end for the Chinese and Biotech conclusions.  Speculative bubbles_2

nasdaq bubble

Hate Math

Poor future returns

 

Source: http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150504.htm

Prof. Greenwald on Value Investing

OVERVIEW Value_Investing_Slides

Greenwald_2005_Inv_Process_Pres_Gabelli in London

Greenwald Overview of VI

A Value Investing Class in Three Minutes

sentiment_cycles
Buying High

Next Week

I have been too busy to do another lesson but be ready next week! For those attending the Berkshire Hathaway Meeting in Omaha enjoy the experience. Flash your Deep-Value Group card for up to 95% discounts.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!

Robert Rubin on Decision-Making. Risk vs. Uncertainty

uncertaintyRisk

 

 

 

 

The investment industry deals largely with uncertainty. In contrast, the casino business deals largely with risk. With both uncertainty and risk, outcomes are unknown. But with uncertainty, the underlying distribution of outcomes is undefined, while with risk we know what that distribution looks like. Corporate undulation is uncertain; roulette is risky. (page 11: More Than You Know–Mauboussin

Take the probability of loss times the amount of possible loss from the probability of gain times the amount of possible gain. That is what we’re trying to do. It’s imperfect, but that is what it’s all about.” -Warren Buffett

 

Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin Remarks to the University of Pennsylvania Commencement Philadelphia, PA
5/17/1999

As I think back over the years, I have been guided by four principles for decision-making.

  1. First, the only certainty is that there is no certainty.
  2. Second, every decision, as a consequence, is a matter of weighing probabilities.
  3. Third, despite uncertainty we must decide and we must act.
  4. And lastly, we need to judge decisions not only on the results, but on how they were made.

First, uncertainty.

When my father was in college, he too had signed up for a course in philosophy with a renowned professor. On the first day of class, the professor debated the question of whether you could prove that the table at the front of the room existed. My father is very bright and very pragmatic. He went to the front of the room, pounded on the table with his hand, decided it was there — and promptly dropped the course.

My view is quite the opposite. I believe that there are no absolutes.

If there are no absolutes then all decisions become matters of judging the probability of different outcomes, and the costs and benefits of each. Then, on that basis, you can make a good decision.

The business I was in for 26 years was all about making decisions in exactly this way.

I remember once, many years ago, when a securities trader at another firm told me he had purchased a large block of stock. He did this because he was sure — absolutely certain — a particular set of events would occur. I looked, and I agreed that there were no evident roadblocks. He, with his absolute belief, took a very, very large position. I, highly optimistic but recognizing uncertainty, took a large position. Something totally unexpected happened. The projected events did not occur. I caused my firm to lose a lot of money, but not more than it could absorb. He lost an amount way beyond reason — and his job.

A healthy respect for uncertainty, and focus on probability, drives you never to be satisfied with your conclusions. It keeps you moving forward to seek out more information, to question conventional thinking and to continually refine your judgments. And understanding that difference between certainty and likelihood can make all the difference. It might even save your job.

Third, being decisive in the face of uncertainty. In the end, all decisions are based on imperfect or incomplete information. But decisions must be made — and on a timely basis — whether in school, on the trading floor, or in the White House.

I remember one night at Treasury, a group of us were in the Deputy Secretary’s Office, deciding whether or not the U.S. should take the very significant step of moving to shore up the value of another nation’s currency. It was, to say the least, a very complicated situation. As we talked, new information became available and new considerations were raised. The discussion could have gone on indefinitely. But we didn’t have that luxury: markets wait for no one. And, so, as the clocked ticked down and the Asian markets were ready to open, we made the best decision in light of what we knew at the time. The circumstances for decision making may never be ideal. But you must decide nonetheless.

Fourth, and finally, judging decisions. Decisions tend to be judged solely on the results they produce. But I believe the right test should focus heavily on the quality of the decision making itself.

Two examples illustrate my point.

In 1995, the United States put together a financial support program to help Mexico’s economy, which was then in crisis. Mexico stabilized and U.S. taxpayers even made money on the deal. Some said that the Mexico program was a good decision because it worked.

In contrast, last year, the U.S. supported an International Monetary Fund program designed to strengthen the Russian economy. The program was not successful and we were criticized on the grounds the program did not succeed.

I believe that the Mexican decision was right, not only because it worked, but also because of how we made the decision. And I believe the Russian decision was also right. The stakes were high, and the risk was worth taking. It’s not that results don=t matter. They do. But judging solely on results is a serious deterrent to taking the risks that may be necessary to making the right decision. Simply put, the way decisions are evaluated, affects the way decisions are made. I believe the public would be better served, and their elected officials and others in Washington would be able to do a more effective job, if judgments were based on the quality of decision-making instead of focusing solely on outcomes.

Time and again during my tenure as Treasury Secretary and when I was on Wall Street, I have faced difficult decisions. But the lessons is always the same: good decision-making is the key to good outcomes. Reject absolute answers and recognize uncertainty. Weigh the probabilities. Don’t let uncertainty paralyze you. And evaluate decisions not just on the results, but on how they are made.

The other thing I’d like to leave with you is that you will be entering a world of vastly increased interdependence — one in which your lives will be enormously affected by decisions made outside of our borders. We must recognize this reality and reject the voices of withdrawal to face the challenges of interdependence. Then, we can realize the immense potential of the modern era, for our economy and our society.

You’ve just completed an important milestone in developing your ability to deal effectively with the complex choices of the world in which you will live and work. By continuing to build on this foundation throughout your life, you will be well prepared for the great opportunities and challenges of the new century.

Congratulations and good luck.

 

Investment Checklists-Adapt Them for Yourself. GOODHAVEN

sacr

Someone sent me a postcard picture of the earth.
On the back it said, “Wish you were here.” — Steven Wright

Investment Checklists 

We left-off here Last Lesson on Gross Profitability and Magic Formula and in that post, the next focus would be on investment checklists.  We have been reading Chapter 2: A Blueprint to a Better Quantitative Value Strategy in Quantitative Value (I will email the Book to new students if they are in the Deep-Value Group at GOOGLE. Go here: https://groups.google.com/forum/#!overview then type: DEEP-VALUE and ask to join.).

On pages 56 to 59 of this chapter the author discusses the case for a checklist. Atul Gawande in his book The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right argues for a broader implementation of checklists. The author believes that in many fields, the problem is not a lack of knowledge but in making sure we apply our knowledge consistently and correctly. 

The Quantitative Value Checklist

  1. Avoid Stocks that can cause a permanent loss of capital or avoid frauds and financial distress/bankruptcy.
  2. Find stocks with the cheapest quality.
  3. Find stocks with the cheapest prices.
  4. Find stocks with corroborative signals like insider buying, buyback announcements, etc.

Below are several books on checklists.

As students may know, I throw A LOT of information at you to force a choice on your part.   You have to focus on what material can be adapted to your needs. In the three books above, you will find many interesting ideas that may be helpful in learning how to build your own list.

The more experienced you are, then the shorter the checklist.  The point of a checklist is to be disciplined and not overlook the obvious while freeing up your mind for the big picture.   Yes, you check off if there is insider buying, but if insiders are absent, but the company has a strong franchise and the price is attractive, then those factors may be overwhelmingly positive.  You may ask, “Do I understand this business?” Then it may take weeks of industry reading to say yes or no.

Checklists are helpful, but only if you adapt them to your method.

Next, we will be reading Chapter 3, Eliminating Frauds in Quantitative Value. We are trying to improve our ability to build a margin of safety.

goodx

The Problem with Investor Time-frames

Note the dark line in the chart above representing the returns of the Goodhaven Fund. Two analysts/PMs split off from Fairholme and started in mid-2011. They had a big inflow in early 2014 and then some of their investors panicked as they vastly “underperformed the market.”  I don’t know if these managers are good or bad but making a decision on twelve to twenty-four months of data is absurd unless the managers completely changed their stripes (method of investing).  Therein lies opportunity for those with longer holding periods like five years or more.

holding-period

Shareholder_Message_1114 (Some investors run for the door)

2014_AR

2013_AR

HAVE A GREAT EASTER and WEEKEND!

fredgraphcreditmarketdebtgdp

RISK! A Reader’s Question

Long-Term

The view from Grant’s (Mar. 20th, 2015) is that risk can usually be found where you aren’t looking for it. You get to thinking, for example, that government bonds are perfectly and unconditionally safe. You would so conclude after 33.5 years of a bond bull market. Yet, the same asset struck many as perfectly and unconditionally unsafe at the 33.5 year point in the preceding 1946-81 bond bear market. Nothing in investing is for certain or forever, “Many shall be restored that now are fallen, and many shall fall that are now in honor,” wrote Horace (65 B.C. to 8 B.C.).

 

download

A reader asked about the 

sharpe_ratio.asp. I think any metric that uses volatility as risk is absurd. The video below will give you a better understanding of what REAL risk is–permanent loss of life! I know some may disagree–see: FAJ My Top 10 Peeves and a value investor’s view: Risk Revisited

 

A Reader’s Question

I’m a value investor from Italy, and I’ve been following your blog since a few months ago. I appreciate a lot your work and the way you share your knowledge with the others. I’ve been doing my own research in American stocks, and create a portfolio that I think is doing well.

I’m a retail small value investor with no MBA, or any especial degree in accounting.

How can a “middle class working hero” approach the world of finance? Do you think any money manager be interested in my research, or I’m only wasting my time?

My advice: First, you can post this to the deep-value@googlegroups.com because there are many smart, experienced investors who may offer another perspective.

First, why American stocks (especially now since many are high-priced?) versus Italian or Greek stocks? Can you develop an area of expertise NEAR where you are?  In other words, what makes YOU unique where you can add unique value? Where can you find the biggest edge. Do you have expertise or experience in a particular industry?   Have you spoken to or research Italian Money Managers? Send your write-up to a few of them. The worst that can happen is they give you a thumbs down but you obtain feedback/and learn.

Not having an MBA is no big deal, but you should learn accounting up to the intermediate level so you can translate the financial information into information useful for an investor.  GAAP earning don’t always equal owner’s earnings. Study online for free or attend a class or grind through a textbook but do ALL the problem-sets.

If you know your portfolio is doing well, keep good records that you can show to potential investors or employers. Do you have a clear investment process that you can follow?

Ask further questions in the comment section.

Good luck!

Shareholder Maximization-The Dumbest Idea in the World; Is Skill Dead?

CRB 2015 long term

JM_The Worlds Dumbest Idea_1214

Video: http://eic.cfainstitute.org/2014/10/23/shareholder-value-maximization-the-dumbest-idea-in-the-world/

Excellent video on Austrian economics and entrepreneurship:

http://mises.org/library/entrepreneurship-austrian-economics-and-cryptorevolution

Advice

I am a first year MBA student in XXXX. I am from a background of (being) a software engineer and an equity researcher in China. I was very interested in Value Investing and tried to apply it to personal investment in past 8 years. Currently, I am exploring career opportunities in the Investment Management area and see that you have been working and teaching in this area for a long time. I would learn more about your experience in this area and get some advice from you.

I would write-up investment ideas within your circle of competence to show fund managers your critical thinking skills and approach to investing.  Or if you have a great understanding of a particular industry or company that is public you can present your ideas to the fund managers who own the company.   Show your past investment results. Why did you make the decisions you made?  Try to sell your ideas to the appropriate money managers.   But only you can determine what your strengths particular interests.   Your reports should meld your interests with your skills.

Icahn

Our activist friend, Carl Icahn’s High River LP, Icahn Partners LP and Icahn Partners Master Fund LP collectively bought 6.6 million Chesapeake shares on March 11 at $14.15 each, bringing the investor’s total stake in the company to 11 percent, according to a filing on Monday. Prior to the purchases, Icahn controlled about 9.9 percent of Oklahoma City-based Chesapeake. That compares with an 11.11 percent stake owned by Southeastern Asset Management Inc. as of Dec. 31, the largest holding according to the latest filings.

The Forgotten Depression (Video)

Forgotten-depression-1921-crash-cured-itself

R-T-M, Gross Profitability, Magic Formula

Our last lesson was in Mean Reversion (Chapter 5 in Deep Value) discussed http://wp.me/p2OaYY-2Ju  View this video on a very MEAN Reversion.

We must understand full cycles and reversion to the mean.  Let’s move on to reading Chapter 2: A Blueprint to a better Quantitative Value Strategy in Quantitative Value.

Investors should be skeptical of history-based models. Constructed by a nerdy-sounding priesthood using esoteric terms such as beta, gamma, sigma and the like, these models tend to look impressive. Too often, though, investors forget to examine the assumptions behind the symbols. Our advice: Beware of geeks bearing formulas. -Warren Buffett, Shareholder Letter, 2000.

A WONDERFUL BUSINESS

Greenblatt defined Buffett’s definition of a good business as a high Return on Capital (ROC) – EBIT/Capital

Capital is defined as fixed asses + working capital (current assets minus current liabilities) minus excess cash.

ROC measures how efficiently management has used the capital employed in the business. The measure excludes excess cash and interest-bearing assets from this calculation to focus only on those assets actually used in the business to generate the return.

A BARGAIN PRICE

High earning yield = EBIT/TEV

TEV + Market Cap. + Total debt – minus excess cash + Preferred Stock + minority interests, and excess cash means cash + current assets – current liabilities.EBIT/TEV enables and apples-to-apples comparison of stock with different capital structures.

Improving on the Magic Formula?

ROC defined as Gross profitability to total assets.

GPA = (Revenue – Cost of Goods Sold)/Total Assets

GPA is the “cleanest” measure of true economic profitability.

See this study Gross Profitability a Better Metric and see pages 46-49 in Quant. Value. (the book was sent to deep-value group on Google)

The authors found GPA outperformed as a quality measure the magic formula.  Note on page 48, Table 2.3: Performance Stats for Common Quality Measures (1964 – 2011) that most simple quality measures do NOT provide any differentiation from the market!

FINDING PRICE, Academically–Book value/Market Price

The authors found that analyzing stocks along price and quality contours using the Magic Formula and its generic academic brother Quality and Price can produce market beating results 

The authors: “Our study demonstrates the utility of a quantitative approach to investing. Relentlessly pursuing a small edge over a long period of time, through booms and busts, good economies and bad, can lead to outstanding investment results.”

Ok, let’s come back to quality and avoiding value/death traps in the later chapters (3 and 4) in Quantitative Value.  We are just covering material in Chapter 2. 

INVESTORS BEHAVING BADLY

Investors and the Magic Formula

Adding Your Two Cents May Cost a Lot Over the Long Term by Joel Greenblatt
01-18-2012  (Full article: Adding Your Two Cents

Gotham Asset Management managing partner and Columbia professor Joel Greenblatt explains why investors who ‘self-managed’ his Magic Formula using pre-approved stocks underperformed the professionally managed systematic accounts.

So, what happened? Well, as it turns out, the self-managed accounts, where clients could choose their own stocks from the pre-approved list and then follow (or not) our guidelines for trading the stocks at fixed intervals didn’t do too badly. A compilation of all self-managed accounts for the two-year period showed a cumulative return of 59.4% after all expenses. Pretty darn good, right? Unfortunately, the S&P 500 during the same period was actually up 62.7%.

“Hmmm….that’s interesting”, you say (or I’ll say it for you, it works either way), “so how did the ‘professionally managed’ accounts do during the same period?” Well, a compilation of all the “professionally managed” accounts earned 84.1% after all expenses over the same two years, beating the “self managed” by almost 25% (and the S&P by well over 20%). For just a two-year period, that’s a huge difference! It’s especially huge since both “self-managed” and “professionally managed” chose investments from the same list of stocks and supposedly followed the same basic game plan.

Let’s put it another way: on average the people who “self-managed” their accounts took a winning system and used their judgment to unintentionally eliminate all the outperformance and then some! How’d that happen?

1. Self-managed investors avoided buying many of the biggest winners.

How? Well, the market prices certain businesses cheaply for reasons that are usually very well-known (The market is a discounting mechanism). Whether you read the newspaper or follow the news in some other way, you’ll usually know what’s “wrong” with most stocks that appear at the top of the magic formula list. That’s part of the reason they’re available cheap in the first place! Most likely, the near future for a company might not look quite as bright as the recent past or there’s a great deal of uncertainty about the company for one reason or another. Buying stocks that appear cheap relative to trailing measures of cash flow or other measures (even if they’re still “good” businesses that earn high returns on capital), usually means you’re buying companies that are out of favor.

These types of companies are systematically avoided by both individuals and institutional investors. Most people and especially professional managers want to make money now. A company that may face short-term issues isn’t where most investors look for near term profits. Many self-managed investors just eliminate companies from the list that they just know from reading the newspaper face a near term problem or some uncertainty. But many of these companies turn out to be the biggest future winners.

2. Many self-managed investors changed their game plan after the strategy under-performed for a period of time.

Many self-managed investors got discouraged after the magic formula strategy under-performed the market for a period of time and simply sold stocks without replacing them, held more cash, and/or stopped updating the strategy on a periodic basis. It’s hard to stick with a strategy that’s not working for a little while. The best performing mutual fund for the decade of the 2000’s actually earned over 18% per year over a decade where the popular market averages were essentially flat. However, because of the capital movements of investors who bailed out during periods after the fund had underperformed for a while, the average investor (weighted by dollars invested) actually turned that 18% annual gain into an 11% LOSS per year during the same 10 year period.[2]

3. Many self-managed investors changed their game plan after the market and their self-managed portfolio declined (regardless of whether the self-managed strategy was outperforming or underperforming a declining market).

This is a similar story to #2 above. Investors don’t like to lose money. Beating the market by losing less than the market isn’t that comforting. Many self-managed investors sold stocks without replacing them, held more cash, and/or stopped updating the strategy on a periodic basis after the markets and their portfolio declined for a period of time. It didn’t matter whether the strategy was outperforming or underperforming over this same period. Investors in that best performing mutual fund of the decade that I mentioned above likely withdrew money after the fund declined regardless of whether it was outperforming a declining market during that same period.

4. Many self-managed investors bought more AFTER good periods of performance.

You get the idea. Most investors sell right AFTER bad performance and buy right AFTER good performance. This is a great way to lower long-term investment returns.

Luck-versus-skill-in-mutual-fund-performance by Fama

….We will finish the chapter with a study of checklists in the next post.

Interesting reading: The Crescent Fund (note reversion to the mean)  Oil Crash Pzena and http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/

Go-where-it-is-darkest-when-company.html (Vale-Brazilian Iron Ore Producer).   Prof. Damordaran values Vale and Lukoil on Nov. 20, 2015.  I am looking at Vale because they have some of the lowest cost assets of Iron Ore in the world.  They have good odds of surviving the downturn but where the trough is–who knows. 

Valuing Cyclical Companies:

Valuing Cyclical Commodity Companies

CS on a Cyclical Business or Thinking About Cypress Stock

Letter to Cypress Shareholders about Price vs Value

download_t_j__rodgers__cdc_2002_keynote_presentation

CY_VL

39_studie_value_creation_in_chemical_industry

vale

I think the author at least knew of the risks, but underestimated the extent of the cycle due to massive distortions caused by the world’s central banks.  It did get darker..as iron prices fell another 10% and still falling. 

Month Price Iron Ore Change
Aug 2014 92.63
Sep 2014 82.27 -11.18 %
Oct 2014 80.09 -2.65 %
Nov 2014 73.13 -8.69 %
Dec 2014 68.80 -5.92 %
Jan 2015 67.39 -2.05 %
Feb 2015 62.69 -6.97

vale

Damodaran: I have not updated my valuation of Vale (as of Feb. 20th), but I have neither sold nor added to my position. It is unlikely that I will add to my position for a simple reason. I don’t like doubling down on bets, even if I feel strongly, because I feel like I am tempting fate. 

Prof. Damodaran is responding to a poster who is asking about Vale’s plummeting stock price.  If you are a long-term bull you want declining prices to bankrupt weak companies in the industry so as to rationalize supply.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!

Dollar Panic; Valuation Ratios; Buyback Mania, CEFs

USbills_3228903b

If you think nobody cares about you, try missing a couple of payments.- Wright.

Long-term view of the Dollar (DXY)

Oil service, oil producers, mining companies etc. are being hammered by a dollar “shortage.”  Opportunity may be knocking. Remember what Klarman said about forced selling.

An overview of the situation: Dollar Shortage. With money supply rising in the US there is no dollar “shortage”, but there is a fear of inter-bank lending.

Dollar Leverage BIS Report

Dollar Crisis 2009

JPM-dollar-shortage funding

A Guide to the Swap Market

Now the “experts” say confidently cnbc Dollar Euro Parity. Perhaps a bit late in a trend!   If you are to follow a trend then The Whipsaw Song

A Reader’s Question on Valuation Ratios.  This sheet may be good as a guide to go through an annual report, but none of those ratios means anything without context.   Is growth good? It depends. Only profitable growth within a franchise.  How about asset turnover?   For some companies like Costco asset turnover is critical but not for Boeing (gross margin).   Why not take those ratios and work through the financials of these trucking companies.  Which company is doing the best? Why? Follow the money!   Those ratios may help you structure the information you pull out from the financials. But first focus on how does the company provide a service to its customers and then trace the financial effects back to your returns as an investor.

  1. HTLD VL
  2. JBHT VL
  3. KNX_VL

Buy-Back Mania (a yellow light of caution)

davidstockmanscontracorner.com-February Stock Buybacks Hit RecordTotal 2 Trillion Since 2009

Emultate Henry Singleton

Case Study in capital allocation: Dr. Singleton and Teledyne A Study of an Excellent Capital Allocator (must read!)

Gold is in a hyper bubble……………….

Gold Bubble

But now not so much…………………Gold Bubble Not Quite as much

Gold is stupid-cheap compared to all the money out there…………………Gold hyper undervalued

What determines the price of gold

2010-06-21 IE Special Report GOLD

A Case Study in investing in Closed-End Funds

Prof. Greenblatt once said that sometimes people just go crazy.

A Lesson in CEF Investing TRF

trf

Investors ran to pay a 90% PREMIUM to NAV AFTER a six-year boom and now after a seven-year decline they sell at a 10.5% DISCOUNT. Go figure.

http://www.cefconnect.com/Details/Summary.aspx?Ticker=TRF

Interesting video on China–a country brimming with centrally planned mal-investment. Is China Already in a Hard Landing?

Read more at reality-check-how-fast-is-china-growing.

We will get back to Deep Value next week and I will post links to valuation class videos.  Have a great weekend and if you do try to emulate someone, then:

Time-out: A Case Study in Pigeons

Pigeons-pigeons-27537154-741-1095

Case Study in Pigeon Investing

Times are hard.  Your family has been struggling to make the mortgage payments on your farm since the 50% decline in corn prices.

corn

Your lucky day! You get a call from a friend’s neighbor that he (The Pigeon King) desperately  needs breeders for his growing pigeon business. With a $125,000 investment financed with a second mortgage against your farm you can buy 360 pairs of pigeons at $165 a pair.  Then he offers to buy back the newly bred pigeons for $40 each (pigeons breed prolifically) with a ten-year contract.  He says these pigeons are for racing.  Then he gives you a list of five farmers in your state who are breeding pigeons for him.  Take your time and do your due-diligence, he says.

You check his credit ratings–all good.  No criminal or civil complaints. He owns his farm free and clear–he is a farmer like you!  After meeting with three of the pigeon farmers who confirm with check stubs that he has been paying them on time and as promised. The returns are good–in excess of 80% to 100% in terms of food and overhead to raise the chicks. Considering your time to look over your pigeons, you figure you can net a 50% pre-tax return on your capital. Plus, your contract allows you to sell whatever you produce at the stipulated price, so growth will be profitable.

Also, you hire an investigator to interview the Pigeon King. She sends you this video interview: Making Fowl into good fare—it this a good idea and A successful pigeon farmer

Times are hard. What do you do? Before you decide, you are inspired by

You gotta have dreams and the will to believe!

Pedgeon King

You remember what you learned as a deep value investor over at csinvesting.org and you_________? Why? What INVESTING/BUSINESS principles help you in your decision?

Please write them down now.  Then read on.

Many years later, you notice in the paper:

the-pigeon-king-and-the-ponzi-scheme-that-shook-canada.html

This article, The Pigeon King (same as the link above but with additional commentary for easier reading) is one of the most amazing stories–a farce, a tragedy, a comedy AND chock full of lessons for the investor.  You may think you are too smart to be a pigeon or a bird-brain (sorry!) but ANYONE can be blind.  What checklist items stop you (besides it’s too good to be true?).

What did YOU learn?

Money for nothing and your chicks for free