My process is to weed out companies to look at based on their financial characteristics. In an ideal world, you would not be able to tell what the market price of the shares are trading at when you scan the Value-Line for the company’s financial history.
It is irrelevant where the price has been–either vastly higher or lower–just what your sense of the value is based on the FINANCIAL characteristics of the business. I am not implying that my way should be YOUR way. Find what works for you in your search/valuation process.
My “Down and Dirty” on CRR Down and Dirty on CRR on November 14
An OK business with a clean balance sheet and incentivized management (14.5% ownership) and no dilution in a highly cyclical business. Not a franchise but an asset based business which means no value for growth.
I have rock bottom tangible book value of $32—a probable ugly case scenario if oil keeps falling to ?? Who knows.
Then I have reproduction value of about $43 per share which coincides with the lowest 1.3 times book value the stock has traded over the past 15 years. $45.
Industry multiples of EV/EBITDA (8.6 xs) place the value at $60 to $65
Median to high price-to-book value is $80 to $170. Throw out the past high price. So……………..
Hard rock is $32 TBV; Replacement or reproduction value $43-45; Industry multiples $60 to $65; Cash flow multiple 12 to 13 times = $55 to $65.
Median price to book value past 15 years is $82, round down to $80
$32 on the extreme low side to $80.
So before looking at annual report or competitors to refine my numbers, I have an idea that this business might be worth buying at or under replacement value of $45. A plan for me based on my psychology and obtaining a price under replacement value might be to allocate a percentage of capital to buy this company starting at $45 down to $30. Perhaps three scaled buy orders on descending price? Will I have the guts to keep buying to my allocation when and if oil goes to $60 and the S&P is down 600 points in a day? Yes, place GTC orders after final work is done.
Worth going through the proxy and 10-K for any problems.
Time: 15 minutes.
CARBO CERAMICS INC: A short thesis back when CRR traded above $150.
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND