Reading for this weekend

Snails

Bubble Watch

GMO_QtlyLetter_1Q14_FullVersion

ABOOK-Mar-2014-Valuations-Stocks-to-GDP

Momentum Stocks Crushed

Momentum Crush

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=30382#more-30382

Buffett Notes

BN-CQ488_0503be_M_20140503154303

http://covestreetcapital.com/Blog/?p=1173    Icahn slams Buffett on his cowardice.

Warren-Buffett-Katharine-Graham-Letter on Pensions 1975

Warren-Buffett-Florida-Speech

Buffett1984Retail Stores and Clean Surplus

Berkshire_Hathaway_annual_meeting_notes_5-3-2014

20140424_CNBC_Transcript__Legendary_Investor_Warren_Buffett_Speaks_with_Becky_Quick

BRK_annual_letter-2014

Have_Researchers_Uncovered_Buffetts_Secret

20140224_Preview_of_Buffett’s_annual_letter__Learn_from_my_real_estate_investments

And in case of Buffett overdoseCrony Capitalist

Resource StocksRules of Thumb for Junior Mining Speculators and A Light at the End of the Tunnel

3 responses to “Reading for this weekend

  1. I have great respect for the researchers at AQR. Don’t get me wrong, they are smart and have been able to construct quantitative, market beating strategies. But their paper on Buffet’s alpha is absolute BS. Great article by Advisor Perspectives.

    It is basically curve-fitting. If you keep adding ‘factors’ to a time-series regression, eventually there will be a regression that can explain buffet’s performance by making the t-stat of the intercept (i.e. alpha) insignificant.

    This relationship cannot possibly hold into the future. Buffett doesn’t create mathematical models to calculate intrinsic value. It is extremely qualitative based on his high IQ, excellent business sense, experience and enormous business knowledge. That cannot possibly be replicated into a simple mathematical equation.

  2. Excellent. I post those articles to read–often before I HAVE read them. Discussion and criticism are welcome. I prefer the opposite point of view especially towards anything I suggest or believe in. You need to test your thesis.

    You hit the nail on the head between curve-fitting, backward-looking model-building and simple common, business sense. If only we could get through with models and not thinking. BS is BS.

    Go Terminator!

  3. Hi Terminator,
    I would say the factors you give to account for Buffett`s success are also shared by some very experienced value investors. What separates Buffett from the pack is the ability to think in decision tree probabilities all the time
    (as Greenblatt says : it`s how you think). Just mu opinion, of course. Feel free to disagree

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