Category Archives: Investor Psychology

Strategy Quiz and Case Study

Change is inevitable….except from vending machines.

A fool and his money are soon partying. –Steven Wright

Message

Dear Readers:

I know the three of you out there will be wondering about replies to your questions. This week requires traveling so please bear with me until I can reply properly.  Meanwhile, continue your work towards completing the Wal-Mart case study and Competition Demystified reading pages 1-110.

This quiz is meant to reinforce concepts you should be thinking about. Whenever you first look at an industry and/or company what should be one of the first questions that you ask______________________?

Research Question

Now, you have been asked to research a new company that has a product where the demand is estimated to increase 10 fold and you must advise your $2 billion hedge fund on Park Avenue, in New York whether to invest.  After two months of 18 hour days, you find out that the research on growth estimates was wrong!  The demand for the service will increase 1000x fold!  You are so excited you can barely wait to speak to the portfolio manager.  How great an investment will this be? What further MAJOR questions should you ask if demand will grow so rapidly. Take five minutes to frame your questions and what you will say to the big boss whom you will be meeting soon.

OK, scroll down and click on the cases below to learn what happened. Surprised?  Why or why not? Let me know your thoughts.

 

 

http://www.scribd.com/doc/77775204/Global-Crossing-A –sorry this had to be placed in the Value Vault under Global Crossing A (36 pages) due to security restrictions. If you do not have a key then email me at aldridge56@aol.com with VALUE VAULT in the subject line.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/77775347/Global-Crossing-CS-by-Univ-of-Edinburgh

For a different perspective and more context: http://www.scribd.com/doc/77780615/Bubbles-and-Gullibility-2008

Investor Personality Tests; Research; Birth of Plenty; MBA Course on Hedge Funds

Investor Personality Tests

If you take these tests quickly and truthfully perhaps you will gain insights into your strengths/weaknesses as an investor. Have fun. http://www.marktier.com/Main/ipp.php

http://www.marketpsych.com/personality_test.php#T3

http://www.myprivatebanking.com/UserFiles/file/MyPrivatebanking%20Investment%20Personality%20Test.pdf

Unfortunately, if your test results were like mine, you will have little choice but to receive therapy. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpL3ncoK99U

A Recommended Web-Site

Jason Zweig: http://www.jasonzweig.com/resources.html

Successful investing is about controlling the controllable. You can’t control what the market does, but you can control what you do in response. In the long run, your returns depend less on whether you pick good investments than on whether you are a good investor.

The first step to reaching your financial goals is to make sure you set goals that are reachable. Your expectations must be realistic. The stock market is not going to provide a high return just because you need it to.

The second step is to recognize what you are up against. Despite what all the daily market reports make it sound like, investing is not a game, a sport, a battle, or a war; it is not an endurance contest in a hostile wilderness. Investing is simply the struggle for self-control – the unrelenting effort to keep yourself from becoming your own worst enemy.

The market is not perfectly efficient, but it is mostly efficient most of the time. Attempting to beat the market may often be entertaining, but it is seldom rewarding. There’s nothing wrong with gambling on poor odds, as long as you admit honestly that what you’re doing is gambling and as long as you put only a tiny proportion of your wealth at risk……

Risk is a function of probabilities and consequences – not just how likely you are to be right but how badly you will suffer if you turn out to be wrong. Investors tend to be overconfident about the accuracy of their own analysis-and to underestimate how keenly they will kick themselves if that analysis is mistaken. Understanding your own shortcomings as an investor is far more important to your long-term success than analyzing the pros and cons of individual investments.

In the short run, hares have more fun; but in the long run, it’s always the tortoises who win the race.

The Strategy of Rich vs. Poor Countries

Video Lecture–How the world became rich: The Birth of Plenty by William Bernstein (58 minutes). This is an enjoyable romp through economic, political and financial history that explains how countries create wealth. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTUZXwQwUJM from http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ Another great resource.

TREASURE CHEST for Research Sources

An amazing collection of academic research on securities and historical financial data here (need prices on stock from 1825? How about on the Shanghai Stock Exchange?): http://viking.som.yale.edu/ Follow the links.

For example: MBA course on hedge funds: Strategy and tactics here: http://viking.som.yale.edu/will/hedge/Hedge%20Funds%202005.htm

Strategy Lesson: The benefits of focus and specialization-A Gunslinger. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ks7-A-7Zvak&feature=related  & http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeFpM2OEWPs&feature=related

The duality of man: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMEViYvojtY

 

Ten Ways to Lose Money in Wall Street (1930)

Ten Ways to Lose Money in Wall Street by the Market Cynic (1930)[1]

After many hours of toil and deep thought I have compiled a dependable guide for stock traders: Ten Ways to Lose Money in Wall Street. I shall not attempt to explain or qualify these precepts, realizing that my readers will doubtless follow them regardless of any advice, from any source, to the contrary.

  1.  Put your trust in board-room gossip.
  2. Believe everything you hear, especially tips.
  3. If you don’t know—guess.
  4. Follow the public.
  5. Be impatient.
  6. Greedily hang on for the top eighth.
  7. Trade on thin margins.
  8. Hold to your own opinion, right or wrong.
  9. Never stay out of the market.
  10. Accept small profits and large losses.

**Your Editor will add:

  • Never read the proxy before and after investing.
  • Never look carefully at the financial and financial footnotes before investing.
  • Never look at the terms and conditions of debt if the company has debt outstanding.

[1] Tape Reading and Market Tactics: Three Steps to Successful Stock Trading by Humphrey B. Neill (1931)

The Best Blog for Behavioral Investing and Improving Your Thinking

The best blog for improving your thinking: www.simoleonsense.com.  You will learn about your own psychology and how you think—essential knowledge for becoming a better investor.  The material on this blog has excellent links.

New York Times Article on the Khan Academy

As previously mentioned, the Khan Academy is a great learning resources for you and for kids. Brush up on statistics, for example.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/05/technology/khan-academy-blends-its-youtube-approach-with-classrooms.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=khan%20academy&st=cse

Referred to here:http://csinvesting.org/placing-ev-and-ebitda-into-perspective-case-studies/

A Protest at the Federal Reserve

http://www.newschannel5.com/story/16181894/protestors-disgruntled-with-federal-reserve-bank. Expect many more of these protests as our currency debasement continues.

Attack on the Austrian View of the Great Depression

I like to read theories, thoughts, or facts contrary to what I think is correct. You test your thinking and, God forbid, you could be wrong. The Great Depression will help you understand the biggest business cycle and depression of the past two centuries. Read: mises.org/rothbard/agd.pdf (Copy and paste into your browser.)

An article on the Austrian view of the Great Depression and the criticism of that view: http://mises.org/daily/5826/Defending-the-Austrian-Explanation-of-the-Great-Depression-from-an-Internet-Attack

Planning Curriculum

I will start this week planning the curriculum to study strategic logic while developing the building blocks for valuation, then tying the two together.

Market Expectations and Mean Reversion

An interesting post here:

The market is currently extremely pessimistic even accounting for the expectations that corporate profits at 10% of GDP and (unsustainably) too high will decline.  If the US wants to create jobs then lower tax rates and allow foreign cash to return without penalty–unleash investment.

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2011/11/corporate-profits-are-still-very-strong.html

Who said life was easy!

Bridge & Buffett, Poker, and Investing

As students of investing we want to improve our skills though studying great investors, understanding and applying the proper principles and learning from case studies to make our education less costly, more profitable.

Only you can do the hard work of introspection of what your strengths and weaknesses. One fun way to improve is to play bridge or poker.  Buffett plays bridge as described here:

http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc061127.htm

Why Warren Buffett plays bridge

Aside from an affection for cheeseburgers and Cherry Coke, one of the personal facts commonly known about Warren Buffett is his love of bridge, which he periodically plays online with Bill Gates.

Why bridge? Though Graham wasn’t talking about Buffett at the time, he
offers a clue:

“I recall to those of you who are bridge players the emphasis that bridge experts place on playing a hand right rather than on playing it successfully. Because, as you know, if you play it right you are going to make money and if you play it wrong you lose money – in the long run.

There is a beautiful little story about the man who was the weaker bridge player of the husband-and-wife team. It seems he bid a grand slam, and at the end he said very triumphantly to his wife ‘I saw you making faces at me all the time, but you notice I not only bid this grand slam but I made it. What can you say about that?’ And his wife replied very dourly, ‘If you had played it right you would have lost it.’”

It takes an enormous amount of restraint to focus on playing every investment hand “right,” according to an established discipline, allowing the law of averages to work in your favor, rather than trying to win every hand. I would guess that this is exactly what appeals to Warren Buffett’s temperament. Over the long-term, good investing requires it.

Those quotes are excerpted from Hussman Funds. I recommend you bookmark this website: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/

Play Poker

My plug is to suggest a few hands of poker.

There are few things that are so unpardonably neglected in our country as poker. It is enough to make me ashamed of one´s species. Mark Twain.

If you look around the table and you can´t tell who the sucker is, it´s you. Paul Scofield, playing the role of Mark Van Doren in Quiz Show.

Poker, the game exemplifies the worst aspects of capitalism that have made our country so great. Walter Matthau.

A guy walks into a bar and notices three men and a dog playing poker. The dog is playing beautifully. ¨That´s a very smart dog,¨ the man says. ¨Not really¨ says one of the players. ¨Every time he gets a good hand he wags his tail.¨

Depend on the rabbit´s foot if you will but remember, it didn´t work for the rabbit. Anonymous.

Poker will teach you about odds, money management, human psychology and your own temperament.  An important lesson for investors is to maximize your winning investments. Joel Greenblatt, George Soros, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger all were experts at heavily weighting their best investments because they could distinguish good opportunities.  They knew the importance of being paid well for finding the rare opportunity.  A few weeks ago in early October we had (and may still have) cheap valuations on some quality companies (AMAT, CSCO, MSFT, MDT, NVS, SYK–in my opinion and easy now to say in retrospect) because we had low expectations for growth, high anxiety, and hyper easy monetary conditions. Opportunities like that don´t appear often. Make the most of your chance. Now pundits are saying we are not going into a recession; where were they last month?

Poker STrategy

Poker strategy will drive home that lesson in spades (sorry). Poker is beautifully
simple, wildly complicated, and in its essence, pure Machiavelli and Sun Tzu,
if one plays better than the other, if he out-thinks and out-strategies, then
he will win the most money. Poker isn´t about the number of pots you take down, or how fantastic you look winning them. Claiming a pot when you have the best cards isn´t enough to make you a winning player. Remember, there is no grand pay scale for holding the best hand. No one gives you a pile of money for drawing a royal straight flush. Some sucker has to pay you off. You have to
maximize profits through guile and savvy, eke out every last dollar that your
competition is willing to lose to you–and, when you don´t have the winning
cards, flee as fast as possible. (Poker Nation by Andy Bellin).

Good luck and rub that rabbit´s foot.

Lectures on Behavioral Finance, Buffett and Munger

Since this blog is a learning resource, I will happily point you to other websites/blogs where you can learn.

Sanjay Bakshi is an investor and professor in India who applied the lessons of Graham, Buffett, and Munger to his teachings and investing. I recommend: http://www.sanjaybakshi.net/Sanjay_Bakshi/BFBV.html

You can download 9 lectures and peruse his site. Also, a student organized a few of his past posts–perhaps an easier way to find your interests.

http://kiraninvestsandlearns.wordpress.com/prof-sanjay-bakshis-posts/

Sanjay’s site will help deepen and broaden your thinking. For example:

Nothing is more dangerous than an idea when it is the only one you have–Emile Auguste Chartier

Why should I buy this stock?

Because it is cheap!

Under what circumstances would this be a mistake? Name three reasons why you could be wrong?

  1. Fraud
  2. Value Trap (declining industry)
  3. Bubble Market

I followed a golden rule that namely whenever a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once for I had found by experience that such facts or thoughts were more apt to escape from the memory than favorable ones. –Charles Darwin

I will post other recommended blogs, but when they fit a context.

Solution to Thinking Out of the Box Question

This Solution answers the post, Thinking Out of the Box post found here:

http://csinvesting.org/2011/10/15/think-outside-the-box-case-study-challenge-yourself/

Amarillo Slim Hustles the Hustlers.

Excerpts from Amarillo Slim in a World Full of Fat People by Amarillo Slim Preston

Bobby Riggs, the 1939 Wimbledon Tennis Champion tried to hustle Amarillo Slim in Ping Pong. Riggs was looking to bust Slim’s skinny ass.

Slim tells the story, “I told Riggs I would play him in Ping Pong straight up with one stipulation: that I got to choose the paddles.

“We both use the same paddle?” Bobby asked.

“Yessir.”

“So when you show up with two of the same paddles,
can I get my choice of which one of them?”

“Yessir, so long as I can bring the paddles.”

Bobby thought I was pulling a schoolboy’s scam—that it was a weight thing or that one of the paddles was hollow or something. But once I told him that he could choose whichever of the two paddles he wanted to use, he couldn’t post his money fast enough.

We bet $10,000 and agreed to play at two o’clock the next day. Before I left, just to avoid any misunderstanding, I confirmed the bet: We were to play a game of Ping Pong to twenty-one, each using the paddles of my choosing.

I showed up the next day at the Bel Air Country Club ready to wage battle. When Bobby asked to see the paddles, I reached into my satchel and handed him two skillets, the exact same weight and size, and told him he could use either one. Now, Bobby was about as coordinated an athlete that ever lived, but he was swinging that skillet like a fry cook on speed. It wasn’t until I had him buried that he started to get the hand of that skillet, but it wasn’t soon enough. I won the game 21-8, and it could have been much worse.

Once again I proved that you can make a living beating a champion just by using your head instead of your ass. The easiest person in the world to hustle is a hustler, and Bobby had taken the bait like a country hog after town slop. You see, I had been practicing with that skillet since I saw him in Houston, and after I collected the money, I shook Bobby’s hand and we both had a good laugh.

Naturally, word spread like wildfire about old Slim fleecing Bobby Riggs, and seven or eight months after it happened, I was in Knoxville, Tennessee, at an American Legion club, to play some poker. There were quite a few wise guys there, including a man named Lefty, who said to me, “Slim that was a pretty good thing you did, playing Ping-Pong with Riggs.” Then Lefty said to me, “I’ve got a buddy that can beat you at Ping-Pong.”

“You haven’t got a buddy who can beat me if I choose the paddles,” I said.

Now, this guy knew how I beat Bobby. The whole world knew how I beat Bobby. And I knew he knew it, so I couldn’t just set up a match to play with skillets, now, could I?

I knew I had to find a way to relieve old Lefty of his money.
I left for Amarillo the next day, wondering how in the hell I was going to find a way to beat Lefty’s pal at Ping-Pong. A few days later, I was drinking Coke from a glass bottle in between games of a friendly pick-up game of Ping-Pong.  For fun, I reached down with the bottle and hit the Ping-Pong ball and it went plumb over the net.

I tried to do that again but I couldn’t. You see, there is an area of only about a sixteenth of an inch on a bottle that will make the ball go over the net. So I practiced and practiced until I could hit the ball over the net every time, and right then I knew that Coke bottle was going to make me a boatload of money.

My only problem was that I couldn’t just show up in Tennessee looking for Lefty—that would have awoken the dead—so I had to find me a reason to go back to Tennessee. I waited a few months for the next big poker game up there, and when I showed up, Lefty didn’t waste any time approaching me. “I guess you’ve been practicing your Ping-Pong back in Amarillo,” he said.

You said it, Lefty. I’ve been playing Ping-Pong all day, every day, for thirty hours a day.”

“That right? My friend will be here in two days.”’

Well, I’m gonna do a little bit of fishing as soon as I bust these poker players.  If he wants to play me some, let me choose the paddles and he is got him a game.”

“What if he is a good player?”

“I don’t give a damn if he is a good player or an aviator. If I get to choose the paddles, we will play.”

“Oh, I’ll guarantee you he’ll play.”

So I went fishing for a couple of days, and when I came back, boy, they didn’t disappoint me with their ringer. Wouldn’t you know it, but they had gotten themselves the world-champion table-tennis player from Taiwan, and he was there waiting for me, licking his chops like a dog at a luau.

Let’s get it one,” Lefty said.

“No,” I said, savoring the moment. “Let’s post our money and play thirty days from now. I need to practice a little, now that I see you got yourself a real-life
Ping-Pong champion.”

While I can play a fair game of Ping-Pong with a skillet, I am not interested in speculating, nor am I interested in making a small score. You see, friend, when I make a wager, the bet has already been won. And if I’m gonna win, I sure as hell want to break somebody doing it.

Even though Lefty and the rest of them wise guys had suitcases full of money, I knew that if I stalled, word would spread that old Slim was going to receive his
comeuppance—and Lefty would have the rest of his rich buddies there to get a
piece of me, too. So we agreed to hold the match in thirty days—and then we’d
play for real money. Not only did I want to give Lefty an opportunity to tell all his associates, but I also wanted to give that champion even more time to practice with his skillet.

I made sure we agreed that we were to play a game of Ping-Pong to twenty-one, each using the paddles of my choosing.

About a month later, just a day before the match, I got a call from one of my associates saying that the champ was practicing with the biggest frying pan this side of Texas. That wasn’t news to me—I knew that was their intention all along-but I suppose they underestimated this here country cowboy.

The next day I arrived in Tennessee I bet with everybody who wanted to bet against me at even money, and when I couldn’t get any more action, I bet everything else I had laying 6 to 5, which meant that if I lost, I’d pay them suckers $6 for every $5 they bet me.  Now it was time to play, and everyone was standing around waiting for me to pull out those skillets. They figured I was just stalling when I went over to a vending machine, put in a dime, and bought a bottle of Coca-Cola. Then I put in another dime and bought another one. I opened both bottles and walked over to a wastebasket and dumped the Coke right out.

Lefty and the rest of the crowd were getting impatient, but I didn’t say a word. I simply walked over to the Ping-Pong table with the Coke bottle and I said to that
champion, “It’s your choice of paddle, son. Which one will it be?”

“Paddles?” he asked.

“Yeah, these here Coke bottle are our paddles. Have your pick.” Well, that boy looked like he couldn’t swallow boiled okra!

Once he grabbed one of the bottle, I said, “I’ll even give you the choice—do you want  to serve or return serve first?”

This champion glanced over at Lefty, who didn’t look so good himself. “Well, goddamn, “Lefty said, “take the serve.”

“Okay,” I said, “Let’s go.”

On his first round of serves, he never even hit the ball over the net. Not one shot. So it was love-5 when he threw me the ball. When I served it over—I’ll give that boy credit, he did hit it every time, but it would go either straight up in the air
or right into the net. He never did return one of my serves.

I’d rather not say how much I had on the match, because it caused a severe audit when word got around. But suffice it to say that no one—not even a world champion—ever challenged me to a game of Ping-Pong again.

I like to bet on anything—as long as the odds are in my favor.
….I also learned that there are people who love action and others who love money. The first group is called suckers, and the second is called professional
gamblers, and it was a cinch which one I wanted to be.

Rather than try to take advantage of the ignorance of a sucker for a few dollars, I take aim at the ego of a millionaire and try to win me a few thousand. If there is one fatal flaw, the Achilles’ hell of every
gamble, it is hubris.  No gambler ever wants to lose face, and I have used that psychological edge to my advantage. All I have to do is play to a wealthy man’s ego, and not only can I get him to gamble, but I can get him to gamble with me for life.

Think “Outside the Box” Case Study–Challenge Yourself

This case study problem is not about investing but has everything to do with investing.

This is based on a true story, and the answer will be revealed after readers here have attempted to solve the problem.

Jimmy the Greek has bet five to one that you will not beat the winner of this match: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJUunbOqJ90&feature=related in a two out of three match.  When word gets out that you have taken the challenge, action gets heated and $1 million is placed. You lose, you pay $1 million; you win, you receive $5 million.

On what one (1) condition would you accept to take on a champion table tennis player considering you have only played recreationally a few times. You have one month to prepare.  No matter what condition you impose, both you and your opponent face the same condition.  For example, you can not say that your opponent must play with his feet tied together while your feet are free. Both of you would play with feet bound together.

How would you have a prayer of winning this bet? Obviously, the gamblers have you as a pathetic longshot.

Give your answer in a sentence or two–no more than thirty words.

Good luck because $5 million would be sweet!

Can the Little Guy Beat Wall Street?

A friend recently wrote me the following question:

Have you read the book: “The Big Short” by Michael Lewis? He is of course the author of Liar’s Poker and The Blind Side amongst others. At the end of the book a question framed in my mind that I haven’t answered yet (although I’m getting close) and I’d like to ask you. I’ll try to put it in a way that make some sense.

What is the best way for the small guy, the individual investor, to achieve great success versus the big Wall Street money machine?

Based on the individual: Is it pure and consistent value investing?

Is it disciplined technical trading?

Is it a combination of the two above?

Is it like the small individual investors I read about in this book that bought some options on the right companies at the right time and in one trade, with a defined risk, became wealthy!

They were in fact value hunters and found the LEVERAGE and DEFINED RISK of options to be a powerful tool to help them overcome what is a pretty big barrier to success and that is: consistently grinding out profits again against the Wall Street money machine. This is especially prescient of course during times of heavy market stress.

What do our individual personalities prefer? In other words what is best for me and what is best for you?

My Reply: Michael Burry is in the book, The Big Short, mentioned by my
friend. He was a self-taught investor who obviously is fiercely
independent, and he will take an extremely contrary to conventional wisdom
position. You can go to www.greenbackd.com and search for other writings by him. Also, go here to see Michael Burry’s Lecture at Vanderbilt University: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fx2ClTpnAAs

Michael Burry, stand outside the system: http://www.valueinvestingtv.tv/2011/02/michael-burry-wall-street-misfit-march-14-2010/

Burry is a great role model to emulate. He sits quietly and reads with a fresh perspective. However, none of us can be Michael Burry, we can only be the best we can be. If I told you what woman to marry, you would be insulted; investing is highly individual though certain basic principles can be followed: Know thyself, keep track of your thought process, write down your investments and thesis, reflect on what you do well and don’t do so well, know your edge and respect the other side of the trade.

We as individuals have huge advantages over Wall Street since there the goal is to generate transactions not necessarily make money from investments. Note the typical research effort in the video link below:

Wall Street Research: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zakyg3thfY  A scene from Boiler Room: RECO!

Here is an article written 22 years ago about individual investors doing better than the market. http://www.scribd.com/doc/68695119/A-Leg-Up-on-the-Market

So, yes it is possible, but YOU have to be successful in YOUR own way not by Buffett’s way or my way, but by your method that suits you. Buying bargains isn’t the only way to invest, but it suits me. The goal of this blog is to help people educate themselves through case studies and readings to develop their own approach where they have the greatest edge.

Two books that tell the stories of independent investors who have had success are: The Warren Buffetts Next Door by Mattew Schifrin and Free Capital: How 12 Private Investors Made Millions in the Stock Market by Guy Thomas. I recommend the second book.

Guy Thomas calls these independent investors free capitalists. He writes that there is no single blueprint for success. Some investors day-trade, invest based on macro concerns, some have no high school education while others have PhDs. There are no absolute entry requirements and many paths to success, so people with a variety of backgrounds have a chance of finding a way which suits them.

There were some traits that many of the investors share:

  • A precocious interest in money-making is not essential, but a strong future time perspective may be.
  • Understanding how markets work is more important to an investor than understanding technology. These investors intimately knew the strengths and weaknesses of their approach. For example, a growth investor knows that if he pays too much for growth, then capital is at risk.
  • They enjoy the process not the proceeds.
  • They have a low appetite for leverage.
  • They are not team players; they work alone.
  • They are foxes, not hedgehogs. Foxes are eclectic, viewing the world through a variety of perspectives, with no allegiance to any single approach. This contrasts with professional fund managers, who often identify with a single investment strategy, which gives the business advantage of a succinct marketing message.
  • Most of the investors hold concentrated portfolios, sometime fewer than ten shares.
  • Mainly smaller companies are chosen because they are less well researched, yet easier to understand, the directors are more accessible to the private shareholder and more likely to have meaningful shareholdings themselves; they are more likely to become takeover targets, etc.
  • They take no advice on what shares to buy. They have a psychological predilection for self-reliance and figuring things out for themselves.
  • Most realize that investing is a craft not a science.
    The craft of investing is composed of heuristics: a toolkit of approximate, experience-based rules for making sense of the world.

Options or LEAPS can be an intelligent way to invest but with caveats. Go to a recent lecture here: http://csinvesting.org/2011/10/13/lecture-8-leaps/

Regarding technical analysis, my question is what type of edge can I have if everyone sees the same chart that I do?  I do look at high volume
days after a long decline or rise since that could indicate that the marginal
investor has sold or bought, but I have no expertise in chart reading.

Let me know how your journey progresses.

Regards,