Author Archives: John Chew

Marty Whitman Comments on How TAVF Differs from Graham & Dodd

TAVF’s 4th Qtr. Letter to Shareholders

The letters from Marty Whitman of TAVF are worth the effort to read for buyers of non-franchise companies.

http://www.thirdavenuefunds.com/ta/documents/reports/TAF%204Q2011%20Shareholder%20Letters.pdf

This is an interesting read on how Marty Whitman differs from the principles of Graham and Dodd (“G&D”). He says analysts at Third Avenue Value Fund (“TAVF”) think like owners, like private acquirers or like creditors, emphasizing elements of fundamental finance that differentiate TAVF from G&D.  For example, G&D emphasizes the importance of dividends for outside passive minority investors (“OPMI”). In contrast,  TAVF looks instead at the corporation optimizing its uses of cash. In general, corporate cash can be dispensed in three areas:

  1. Expand assets
  2. Reduce liabilities
  3. Distribute to equity owners
  •      Via dividends
  •      Via stock buybacks

There are comparative advantages and disadvantages for dividends and buybacks, which are never discussed by G&D because they only mention the stock buyback alternative as it relates to stock options for management.

There is no discussion by G&D of stock buybacks as a method of enhancing a common stock’s market price over the long run, giving management the flexibility to retain cash in troubled times, and also increasing the percentage ownership interest of each non-selling stockholder.

VALUATION lesson in fundamental finance:

GAAP recognizes three classifications on the right hand side of the balance sheet: liabilities; redeemable preferred stock; and net worth.

In economic fact, there are many liabilities that have an equity component. It is up to the analyst to decide what percentages of certain liabilities are close to equivalent to payables and what percentage are close to equivalent to net worth. Take the liability account, deferred income taxes payable, in a going concern. If the cash saved from deferring income taxes are invested in depreciable assets, the tax may never become payable.

However, the deferred tax payable account can never be worth as much as tax paid retained earnings (part of net worth) because the tax may someday become payable, especially if the company engages in resource conversion activity, such as being acquired in a change of control transaction. So, maybe there is as much as a 90% equity value in the deferred income tax accounts payable. On the other hand, deferred income taxes payable can never be as much of a liability as current accounts payable or interest bearing debt. Maybe, at the maximum, there is a 5% to 10% equity in the deferred tax payable account. GAAP is based on a rigid set of rules; it is no longer principles based. The appraisal of an account, such as deferred income taxes payable, is in the province of the users of financial statements, not the preparers of financial statements.

And another lesson:

Most OPMIs involved with common stock believe in substantively consolidating the company with its common stock owners. They believe they are buying General Electric (“GE”), not GE common stock. In fundamental finance, the company is a stand alone, separate and distinct from its shareholders, its management, its control group and its creditors. Essential for understanding the dynamics of many companies are not only consolidated financial statements but, also, how financial statements are consolidated. In many cases, it is important to know which liabilities of particular parents or subsidiaries are assumed or guaranteed by other companies which are part of a consolidation.

Try to read Marty’s letters and the other managers of Third Avenue Value Fund each quarter, especially if you like asset-based investments.

Qualitative Competitive Advantages

If you were given a government monopoly that a majority of the US population had to use, could you ever go broke?  You need to understand that different types of competitive advantages confer different strengths and durability.

A government monopoly that use force (fines/imprisonment) is less durable than a natural monopoly created by customer captivity through consumer choice and economies of scale (coca-cola, Microsoft’s operating system).

If ever there was a lesson in why the government is not efficient, it is here: the power of incentives.

http://townhall.com/columnists/jeffjacoby/2011/12/11/email_isnt_killing_the_post_office/page/full/

Email Isn’t Killing The Post Office

  • Dec 11, 2011

IT’S GROUNDHOG DAY at the US Postal Service: time once again for the familiar laments about how the agency’s financial losses are surging, how demand for its services is plummeting, and how officials have no choice but to close local facilities, raise the price of stamps, and reduce delivery standards.

Last week the Postal Service announced plans to cut $3 billion in costs by slowing down first-class mail service and eliminating about half of the country’s 461 mail-processing centers. That would mean an end to next-day delivery of first-class mail. Although that might not seem like much of a threat for something already thought of as “snail mail,” the Postal Service has insisted for decades that 95 percent or more of local first-class mail is successfully delivered overnight. When the new standards take effect next spring, two-day delivery will become the new overnight, even for mail that’s just traveling down the street.

If all this sounds familiar, you aren’t hallucinating.

“In 1990, the Postal Service launched a nationwide plan to intentionally slow down mail delivery,” policy analyst James Bovard wrote in his 1994 book, Lost Rights. First-class letters were already taking 20 percent longer to reach their destination than they had in 1969, but Postmaster General Anthony Frank assured Congress that the reduction in delivery standards would “improve our ability to deliver local mail on time.” In the weird logic and language of the American postal system, the key to success was to give the public less for its money.

The more things change in Postal World, the more they remain the same. In the 1960s, a stunning 83 percent of the agency’s total budget went to wages and benefits. Three decades later, after billions of dollars had been spent on automation, labor costs still accounted for 82 percent of the budget. And in 2011? “Decades of contractual promises made to unionized workers, including no-layoff clauses, are increasing the post office’s costs,” The New York Times recently reported. “Labor represents 80 percent of the agency’s expenses, compared with 53 percent at United Parcel Service and 32 percent at FedEx, its two biggest private competitors.”

That things have been getting tougher for the Postal Service, nobody disputes. With the ubiquity of e-mail, text-messages, social media, and online bill-paying, the volume of mail entrusted to the post office has been sinking for years. In a study published last year, the Government Accountability Office noted that first-class mail, the Postal Service’s most profitable business line, had declined 19 percent from its peak in 2001, and was expected to fall another 37 percent by 2020.

The Internet Age may be wreaking havoc with the post office and its mail-delivery business, but what industry in America isn’t going through the same wrenching experience? And not many institutions enjoy the benefits that federal law confers on the Postal Service: It pays no income or property taxes, it’s exempt from vehicle licensing requirements and parking fines, and it has the power of eminent domain. Most significant of all, it has a legal monopoly on the delivery of mail: The federal Private Express statutes make it a crime for any private carrier to deliver letters. The only exception is for “extremely urgent” letters, and even those may be delivered by a private company only if it’s willing to charge a much higher rate than the Postal Service would have charged.

They don’t have a legally binding monopoly, unlike the US Postal Service. Yet they’re thriving, while the post office is struggling to stave off bankruptcy.

Yet with all its privileges, the Postal Service is struggling, while UPS and FedEx flourish. Why? Because they have something invaluable that the post office lacks: Competitors.

“We have a business model that is failing,” Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe said last week. It’s true. But it was true long before e-mail came along. What is killing the post office is the lack of genuine, head-to-head competition that forces vendors to compete for customers by pushing quality up and holding prices down. Only in a government-sheltered monopoly like the Postal Service would labor costs remain as bloated as they have, year in and year out.

More than a decade into the 21st century, there is no reason why mail shouldn’t be delivered by multiple enterprises, each one competing for market share and goodwill by providing consumers with a valued service. In nearly every other area, after all, Americans embrace competition. With competition comes accountability. And only when the Postal Service is accountable — only when its customers are free to take their business elsewhere – will the endless round of excuses and losses and service reductions finally come to an end.

Case Study #4 of a Clear Investment Thesis: Cash Bargain

It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.  –Charles Munger.

This is an example of a cash bargain–no discussion of growth or competitive advantage. You are playing a statistical game of reversion to the mean–how many puffs of the cigar will you get? Time is not on your side so you should size the position if you decide to invest. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzcWwmwChVE

Case Study here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/75684107/Case-Study-4-Clear-Investment-Thesis-Winmill-cash-Bargain

 

Case Study #3 of an Excellent Investment Thesis

You should read this case to see the depth of thinking this investor puts into his company analysis.

You will also gain from rereading the case as your understanding of competitive analysis and investing improves.

Learning is often an itinerant process; you have to circle back and review and reread to gain better understanding.

Failure

Remembering that I’ll be dead soon is the most important tool I’ve ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything – all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure – these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important.  Steve Jobs

The only real failure in life is not to be true to the best one knows. Buddha
I can accept failure, everyone fails at something. But I can’t accept not trying. Michael Jordan
Learning how to handle failure is a good skill to have.  We all fail, lose money and make mistakes in investing. If you can survive and build on your successes then you ultimately will prosper.  An excellent interview of a man who made and lost $15 million.

http://wenzel.podbean.com/2011/12/10/the-robert-wenzel-show-week-7/

http://www.jamesaltucher.com/    A favorite blog.

Case Study #2 of an Excellent Investment Thesis: SGDE

The professor already handed out Case 1 (NVR) which was posted here:http://csinvesting.org/2011/12/10/case-study-1-of-an-excellent-investment-thesis-nvr/

Now for Case 2 (SGDE): http://www.scribd.com/doc/75498797/SGDE-Example-of-a-Clear-Investment-Thesis

Links to the annual report and 10-Q are at the end of the document. You may wish to read and value the company BEFORE reading the write-up to test your valuation skills.  Again Charlie479 presents a clear and compelling investment thesis.

To brush up on reading a 10-K go here: How to read a 10-K by the SEC http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/reada10k.pdf

I like to simply follow this guy’s advice:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJS_zTnUiBc&feature=related

SHOW ME THE MONEY! SHOW ME THE MONEY!

  1. Is this a good business by ROIC, ROE, ROA?
  2. What is it? Sales, profits, cash flows growing, slowing, declining, volatile?
  3. Debt? How much and what terms?
  4. How is management compensated and do they have skin in the game?
  5. Do I have a hope of understanding this business?

Corporate Finance: Dividend Policy, Strategy, and Analysis

Earlier we analyzed stock repurchases. http://csinvesting.org/2011/12/08/an-insiders-view-of-capital-allocation-corporate-financie-valuation-case-studies/

Now we beat the subject of dividends to death from all angles especially from an insider’s perspective. Munger, Buffett, Peter Lunch and others discuss dividends http://www.scribd.com/doc/75491721/Dividend-Policy-Strategy-and-Analysis-Value-Vault

Please refer to the charts of the companies mentioned in the document:

WDFC_30 year chart

MO_50 year chart

MRK 50-Yr chart

What about Using Screens? Question from Readers

Screeners

A reader asks what type of screeners do I use to find ideas.  I do not use any other than reading.

I have used 10-K Wizard (bought by Morningstar) to do word searches and alert me to form-10 filings (Spin-off report), so I am aware of special situations.  I also have Google alert me to any news of corporate liquidations, spin-offs, restructuring, emergence from bankruptcy, etc.  That is one tool for searching for special situations or corporate restructuring.

Mostly I have 150 to 200 stable franchise-like companies that I have followed for many years, I follow capital allocation type companies like Markel, Loews, Enstar that have good investors at the helm so you buy when the price is at or below net asset value so you get management for free. Like being invested in private equity without the fees.

Reading is the main way. The problem is not enough time to handle all the ideas, so the key is to quickly focus on the best opportunity–the biggest discount to future cash flows.

Capital IQ is too expensive and Yahoo is unreliable. I can have access to a Bloomberg terminal but rarely use it. Just let me read my 10-Ks.

I will do a post on search at another time. Perhaps then there will be ideas to help in finding opportunities.

 Thanks for the question.

Interesting Lessons on Economics: The Cause of Booms and Busts

The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.

–Henry Hazlitt

 

Booms and Busts

Short two-to-three-minute videos on the causes of booms and busts:

The history of booms and busts: http://www.learnliberty.org/content/history-economic-booms-and-busts

The Myths of the Great Depression: http://www.learnliberty.org/content/top-3-myths-about-great-depression-and-new-deal

Govt. response to the 2008/09 Financial Crisis: Manipulation fails. http://www.learnliberty.org/content/2008-financial-crisis-government-response

Occupy Wall Street

I sympathize with the Occupy Wall Street protestors in their grievances against crony capitalism, government corruption and corporate welfare. Unfortunately, many of these protestors do not understand economic principles. More government intervention doesn’t solve problems caused by government control and interference in the free exchanges between individuals under a rule of law.

A short video on Occupy Wall Street Protestors: http://www.learnliberty.org/videos/occupy-wall-street-capitalism-professors-response

Ludwig von Mises on the First ‘Occupy Wall Street’

In his book Bureaucracy, Ludwig von Mises discussed the German youth movement that occurred in Germany the decade before the First World War. The similarity with OWS is quite remarkable:

In the decade preceding the First World War Germany, the country most advanced on the path toward bureaucratic regimentation, witnessed the appearance of a phenomenon hitherto unheard of: the youth movement. Turbulent gangs of untidy boys and girls roamed the country, making much noise and shirking their school lessons. In bombastic words they announced the gospel of a golden age. All preceding generations, they emphasized, were simply idiotic; their incapacity has converted the earth into a hell. But the rising generation is no longer willing to endure gerontocracy, the supremacy of impotent and imbecile senility. Henceforth the brilliant youths will rule. They will destroy everything that is old and useless, they will reject all that was dear to their parents, they will substitute new real and substantial values and ideologies for the antiquated and false ones of capitalist and bourgeois civilization, and they will build a new society of giants and supermen.

The inflated verbiage of these adolescents was only a poor disguise for their lack of any ideas and of any definite program. They had nothing to say but this: We are young and therefore chosen; we are ingenious because we are young; we are the carriers of the future; we are the deadly foes of the rotten bourgeois and Philistines. And if somebody was not afraid to ask them what their plans were, they knew only one answer: Our leaders will solve all problems.

It has always been the task of the new generation to provoke changes. But the characteristic feature of the youth movement was that they had neither new ideas nor plans. They called their action the youth movement precisely because they lacked any program which they could use to give a name to their endeavors. In fact they espoused entirely the program of their parents. They did not oppose the trend toward government omnipotence and bureaucratization. Their revolutionary radicalism was nothing but the impudence of the years between boyhood and manhood; it was a phenomenon of a protracted puberty. It was void of any ideological content.

If you want a concise, clear lesson on economics you can view the 3-hour video: 10 lectures on each chapter of Economics in One Lesson by Henry Hazlitt

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xR8F6oIG8Bg&feature=related

The book in pdf: http://www.fee.org/pdf/books/Economics_in_one_lesson.pdf

To grasp why understanding economics is critical view the errors of Prof. Milton Friedman on the Federal Reserve. Professor Friedman praised Alan Greenspan’s reign at the Federal Reserve while completely ignoring the distortions in the economy in 2005.

Milton Friedman on Charlie Rose: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2963837673813979186#

How a bad economic theory leads to a false interpretation of economic performance. An Austrian discusses Milton Friedman’s monetary theory: http://www.youtube.com/user/misesmedia#p/u/5/DMR-r0nrk60

The Importance of Critical Thinking

If you understand the lessons from Economics in One Lesson, you will see many false premises and the errors in logic here:

Thomas Friedman, the columnist for the New York Times is daft. How can innovation in one part of his essay cause human suffering while in another paragraph innovation will improve lives?

http://cafehayek.com/2011/12/business-school-argot-is-no-substitute-for-critical-thinking.html

Treasure Trove Discovered! and Build a Multi-Billion Dollar Business Case Study

The link below will take you to many other links to investing resources like case studies, business histories, foreign stock information, value investing ideas.  There is more here to keep you learning for the next few months. I can’t vouch for the quality of all the information, but you can root around for yourself. Tell me your favorite links: http://www.scorpioncapital.com/manual/links.php. A potential treasure trove!

This brings me to the philosophy of this blog. In the Value Vault you will find the book, Applied Investing and a Powerpoint of Porter’s Five Forces. I do not feel those works are particularly useful. I wrote a critical review on Amazon of Applied Investing here:

http://www.amazon.com/review/R25P1MHUTA7C3J/ref=cm_cr_pr_cmt?ie=UTF8&ASIN=0071628185&nodeID=&tag=&linkCode=#wasThisHelpful

I find many of the readers’comments on Amazon’s book review section ludicrous. Do the the author’s students write the reviews?

But I do not want to censor material because of what I think; instead make up your own mind.  Greenwald in his book Competition Demystified says that Porter’s analysis is four forces too many. I would rather have you read Porter’s book, Competitive Strategy (1980) or view the Powerpoint of the Five Forces than exclude them. If you find material totally misleading or harmful to learning how to become a better investor, let me know.

TEST QUESTION

To prepare yourself to read the world’s best business analysis ever done (to be posted Friday December 16th) please read Munger’s, The Art of Stock Picking.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/75389403/Charlie-Munger-Art-of-Stock-Picking

Next, sit quietly and write to your investors how you will build a multi-billion dollar business from scratch.  Take no more than an hour. You can go into the Value Vault* and read Bruce Greenwald’s Competition Demystified and the Powerpoint of Porter’s Five Forces to assist your understanding of competitive advantages since if you are to succeed you will need several or many working for you.

Good luck.

To gain access to the Value Vault (a collection of videos and materials on business and investment analysis) just email me at aldridge56@aol.com with VALUE VAULT in the subject heading. I will email you a key provided you use the materials for your own use.