Hannibal Lecter on How to Read Ben Graham

What is its nature?

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Read Marcus_Aurelius, First principles,    S I M P L I C I T Y.

For each particular, what is it in itself? What is its nature?  Why does he kill? Because he covets!

In your Readings for Lesson 3: Graham’s Liquidations and Net/Nets think about principles not accounting conventions.  When is a current asset not current? Can a fixed asset be more current than a current asset on the balance sheet?

Finally, when you are looking at a balance sheet, always think of this

UPDATE:

Google only lets me send emails to 500 people in one day. There are 497 enrollees in the deep value course.   So I can only email by group. I will be sending out invites to all enrollees in DEEP VALUE

So consider joining or else you won’t receive emails. Email communication will typically be updated on the most recent blog post at www.csinvesting.org

We already have volunteers for Schloss, Tweedy Browne, Greenblatt, and Buffett. Thanks for the quick response.  No more volunteers for now. But I DO need a volunteer to date My Ex-Wife.

All Course Materials Sent via Hightail Link to Your Email

Once again, if you did not receive this link in your email, let me know at aldridge56@aol.com because it means that you are not enrolled and not on the distribution list.

UPDATE 12:40 PM:  It looks like my aol emails are not getting through. I will be using JAC007CSI@gmail.com instead to send you communications.   Use the link below instead of the email link I sent you IF you are asked for a password. Sorry. We are getting there. ALL course materials for now can be downloaded below.

from aldridge56@aol.com via Hightail.
DEEP VALUE COURSE.zip Download
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IMPORTANT: Email Distribution List for DEEP VALUE COURSE

I just sent SECURITY ANALYSIS (PDF) to EVERYONE (503 enrollees) on my distribution list for the DEEP VALUE COURSE under TWO emails:

aldridge56@aol.com and jac007csi@gmail.com

We have to have an efficient distribution list so you can get assignments/readings.    Perhaps, I should have used google drop box or some other method.   But I don’t see why emails can’t work.

SO, if you are ENROLLED in the course AND you did not receive TWO emails with Sec. Analysis attached, then email me AGAIN at aldridge56@aol.com with STILL NO SECURITY ANALYSIS.

Check your spam folders to let the emails through.

Once I know that the FULL distribution list is working I will RE-EMAIL all the materials that you should have to this point in the course.

Let’s get it right because receiving 250 emails from students who did NOT receive THE Intelligent Investor and Sec. Analysis is very time consuming.

THANKS, John Chew

 

Reading Assignments; The Institutional Imperative

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All Enrollees in the DEEP VALUE COURSE should have been emailed Security Analysis and The Intelligent Investor.

Please read Chapters 42 – 45 (on the Balance Sheet). Especially focus on Chapter 43, Significance of Current Asset Value in Security Analysis, (pages: 548-613)

Read Chapter 15 in the Intelligent Investor (pages 376-402)

Chapter 22, Graham’s Net-Nets: Outdated or Outstanding in Montier’s Value Investing,  (Pages 229-235)

Chapter 2, Contrarians at the Gate in Deep Value, (pages 19 -34)

Chapters 1 & 2 in Quantitative Value (pages 3 – 59)

A total of about 168 pages.   This is to give you an early start for next week.  If you are short on time, then just read Ch. 2 in DEEP VALUE. 

If you didn’t receive any of those books, then 1) check your spam folder, 2. email me at aldridge56@aol.com with the title BOOKS and what you are missing.  3. if you receive an email with material that you have already received, then ignore/delete.

The Institutional Imperative
Sometimes institutions get caught up in the moment as well.  A company I used to work for held the Fairholme fund in two separate strategies in 2010.  At the end of 2010 I was able to convince the group to completely sell out of the fund in the smaller strategy, but it remained in the larger strategy.  In 2011, the Fairholme fund lost about 32% when the S&P 500 was up 2%.

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At the end of 2011 I (the author of this article, link below) was able to convince the group to add the Fairholme fund back to the smaller strategy, but was unable to convince them to even maintain its weighting in the larger one.  Instead the group decided to cut the allocation in the larger strategy in half, despite my objections.  The argument was that the volatility and amount of underperformance (What about Regression to the Mean?) was too great.  The amount of underperformance was one of the reasons to add it back to the smaller strategy and in my experience returns trump volatility as volatility can actually be your friend.  In 2012, Fairholme was up about 35% which almost beat the S&P 500 by 20%.  In the end it was the clients that were hurt as the investment group followed the herd, on the larger strategy at least, keeping a manager after great performance and selling them after poor performance.  Read more….

The institutional-imperative

Institutional Investors and Analysts tend to herd-like behavior by acting late after trends are established.

Goldman cuts oil outlook, so NOW you tell us! (Perhaps, a tad late on the ADVICE!)

Working at Goldman Sachs

 

How NOT to be a DEEP VALUE INVESTOR

Repetitio est mater studiorum,” says the Latin proverb – repetition is the mother of all learning.

Lessons for this post:

  1. Know what you are doing.
  2. Avoid paying massive premiums over net asset values.

Below is CUBA, a closed-end fund investing in companies that invest in Cuba or will benefit by an increase in business with Cuba. Note the spike upward on the announcement that Obama would allow a prisoner exchange and take Cuba off the US’s terror list opening up the possibility of the end of the US embargo.

large CUBA

Now go: CUBA NAV Summary  (Click on the button, since exception on the right side of the page, to see the history of price vs. Net Asset Value (“NAV”). Note the results last time “investors”/speculators or the confused paid in excess of 50% to the underlying stocks. We can argue about the intrinsic values of the underlying stocks but not the prices–because price is what it is. Mr. Market has spoken.

Here we are todaysmall cuba

Go back and click on CUBA NAV Summary and view the one year summary. Note that the price reached a 70% premium to the NAV AFTER the news event of “improving” US/Cuba relations.   Upon hearing the news:

My first post on CUBA (CEF) SELL!  Can I predict? No, just common-sense.

Where is the efficient market? Perhaps the unavailability of shares to borrow hindered arbitrageurs who could buy the underlying stocks and short the closed-end fund (“CEF”), CUBA.  But to pay such a premium is almost a guaranteed loss unless sold to a greater fool who will pay an even more absurd premium. That is speculating not investing. What is business-like about paying a 70% premium after a news event?

A closed-end fund sells a fixed number of shares to investors. For example, let’s pretend we start a closed-end fund to buy stocks, called the BS Fund. We sell 10 shares at $10 each for $100 in capital, then we buy 1 share of Company X at $50 and 2 shares of Company Y for $25 (ignoring commissions and fees). The net asset value (NAV) is ($50 times 1 share) + ($25 times 2 shares) = $100.   The net asset value per share is also $10.  So the price per share of the CEF ($10) trades at no premium (0) to the NAV per share $100/10 shares.  Now an investor wants to sell 3 of his BS (CEF shares) to an investor who bids for them at $9.00 per share.  Unless, the underlying share prices of Company X and Y change, then the discount is now 10%.  We, as the management, must institute a decision to buy back shares of the BS fund to close the discount or investors increase their demand for the shares.

Carl Icahn got his start as a closed end fund arbitrageur, who would force the managements of the closed-ends funds that traded at large discounts to NAV, to buy-back their shares.

Setting aside the emotional impact of the news announcement, the prisoner exchange and Obama’s reducing of sanctions doesn’t change much.  By the way, if sanctions and embargos don’t work (I agree) as Obama claims then why the sanctions on Russia? If the Russians didn’t surrender during Stalingrad, what are the odds now? Color me cynical.

The US is ALREADY one of the top ten trading partners with Cuba. Of course, the embargo is a farce, kept in place for political purposes. Congress still has to vote to remove the embargo, but even without the embargo Cuba lacks the production of goods and services to trade. Why? Cubans lack the capital to produce because they lack the security of property rights and the rule of law to acquire capital. No Habeas Corpus, no freedom of speech, and no rights. No tyranny generates LONG-TERM economic growth.

What returns will foreign investors require to invest in Cuba?  Say you whip out your spread-sheet and suggest 25% annual returns to build a new hotel in Cuba based on your projection of American tourists hitting the shores of Cuba like locusts.  Two years after the hotel is built, Raul Castro and his military cronies tears up your contract. Investment lost.  Without the rule of law and sanctity of contract, the rest means little. The first lesson is to know what you are doing.

Life in Cuba:

  1. Tengo Hambre A Cuban Says I AM HUNGRY!
  2. Life for Cuban Youth (Cuba with highest suicide rates in the Western Hemisphere.

The investor who buys CUBA would have to understand what the current changes mean for the companies in the fund. Anyone who spends time understanding the current economic conditions there would grasp how little the current announcement means for investment there.  Ask the Canadian investor rotting in a Cuban jail today Canadian investor rots in Cuban jail.

Speculators were willing to pay at 70% premium AFTER the price of the underlying companies had moved higher by 10% to 15% on the news.  A premium on top of a premium–a lesson of what NOT to do.   Questions?

If anyone in this class does that, then this awaits: No Excuse

Lecture 1; Lesson 2: A DEEP Value Investor/Activist in Action

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Lecture 1 The main points from Lesson 1

Jot down his numbers. Do you agree?  Read through the transcript Other Peoples Money_2 then see the video again.  What you saw was value investing in action.  Many of my videos are meant to entertain but this one has much to teach. Note his SEARCH and VALUATION PROCESS.

Now view the activist. Note the divergent incentives.

A Prayer   (Video link) What do YOU think?

A Prayer for the Dead. Amen, Amen, and Amen.

For Masters of the Universe (Investment Bankers)

Try this case study. Case Study – Munsingwear.  If you struggle, here is a hint: What would you tell someone who kept banging their head on the wall and complained of a headache?  In five days I will post the answer. This is an actual case so don’t cheat by Googling it.  This case is about thinking like Larry the Liquidator :).

Next week, I will post more on Lecture 1 and you should plan to read Chapter two in DEEP VALUE and the Chapters 1 & 2 in Quantitative Value. We will study those chapters AFTER next week. I am just giving you notice.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!

Dangerfield in a Finance Class/Search Strategy

 

Why do the typical MBA classes teach Beta, Capital Asset Pricing Theory, Value at Risk? Do those terms and theories have anything to do with REAL investing?  What would Graham say about the typical MBA finance class?  We will delve into those terms in another reading (Discussed in Montier’s book, Value Investing–which was emailed to YOU.)

If you wish to take MBA-level finance courses for free go here: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

The next link contains an offensive video about picking-up women (please, those of sensitive dispositions ignore/delete). However, there is a lesson here for deep value investors–a hint of where to look for value.  In places where other investors are experiencing anguish. Video: Deep Value Search Strategy

Tomorrow/Saturday I will post the lecture notes for Lesson 1. Then we will view a Deep Value Activist in action.

You may enjoy reading an interview of Deep Value’s author

Deep Value Author, Tobias Carlisle-interview-with-harvest-and-its-community

Deep-Value-at-authorsgoogle/ An excellent video of Deep Value Investing.

www.greenbackd.com is worth scrolling though and viewing past videos.

Prayer for a Deep Value Investor; Special Project (Montier Reading)

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If— A poem Phil Fisher kept by his bedside to emphasize independence of spirit and rationality/grace under pressure.

BY RUDYARD KIPLING

If you can keep your head when all about you

    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
    And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
    If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
    And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
    Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
    And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
    And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
    And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
    To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
    Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
    Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
    If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
    With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
    And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!
You should have received Value Investing by Montier (attachment in the email)  If YOU did NOT, then check your spam filter or email me at Aldridge56@aol.com.
Volunteer(s) (especially a CFA or MBA) to read and discuss via a post with links PART 1: WHY EVERYTHING YOU LEARNED IN BUSINESS SCHOOL IS WRONG   (pages 1 – 72).  I will discuss the details to cover later.
PS: The questions posted for reading Lesson one (1) are to help YOU in understanding/questioning the reading. You do NOT have to send to me unless you want to or you can post to the blogs’ comments’ section with your comments/additional thoughts.  If you disagree or have another perspective on what you have read then do not hesitate to share.  Deep Value Investors tend to be contrarian/iconoclastic.
KEEP LEARNING!

Quantitative Value Lecture in NYC, Announcements for DEEP VALUE

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I am temporarily using this email (jac007csi@gmail so check your spam filters) until I have my bulk email issues sorted out with AOL.com.  If YOU enrolled in the course and did not receive the email mentioned below, then email me at Aldridge56@aol.com and request the course materials for lesson 1.

I sent this book out before so delete if you have it. For those newly enrolled, please place in your research library. Not required reading.   Enrollment is NOW closed!

Attached is a book, M of Safety by Seth Klarman.  Over this course, I will be sending out other books/cases/notes and then asking for volunteers to do more in-depth research on the book, then we will share with the other students.  For example, I ask for one volunteer to critique that book.  Why is it a classic (on Amazon for $2,000) and what lessons for the investor? Is it similar to The Intelligent Investor?  You may wish to wait before volunteering because I will be sending out other projects by early next week and then you may choose a subject/topic of greater interest.

After reviewing Lesson 1 by Friday, we will watch a deep value investor/activist in action. Then for the advanced students, they can advise a company through a case study.  Then we will move onto liquidation values and Net/Nets.  We will circle back later (with the help of a volunteer) to further analyze Behavioral Portfolio Management (a reading from lesson 1).   Does investing in stock with NEGATIVE net worth makes sense?

There are 450 students enrolled. If only 10% volunteer for the twenty or so “special projects” then up to two people will be adequate.

Please consider DROPPING OUT if you are not a fanatic, Phanatic 

NOTICE: I can’t go, but can you or someone you know wish to attend?

Wesley Gray, co author of Quantitative Value Lecture on Wed. Jan. 7th at NYSSA in New York City

Date
Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Time
6:00 p.m.-7:30 p.m. | Presentation

7:30 p.m.-8:00 p.m. | Networking

Location
NYSSA Conference Center
1540 Broadway, Suite 1010, (entrance on 45th Street)
New York, NY 10036

Fees
Member $20     Nonmember $40     Student Member $15
($10 surcharge for walk-ins)

Registration Deadline

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Credits
CFA CEs= 1.5

Speaker
Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D.

Chairs
Janet Mangano
Chris Goulakos
Michael Livian, CFA

Additional Information
If you are unable to register for this event online, please call (212) 541-4530 for assistance.

Register via Mail/Fax 
Policies and Procedures

Emergency and DEEP VALUE Investing (Lesson 1)

planeEmergency Inbound   Please JUST LISTEN (not watch) to the audio. Ignore the skill of the pilot.  What do you notice AS UNUSUAL?   How does this relate (if at all) to Deep Value Investing?

Emergency Inbound Simulation with Audio The two-minute video—please WATCH along with listening carefully to the Captain.

Full Simulation If you don’t grasp the situation (you are in a 50-ton aircraft that flies like a tank with wings once power is lost-the aircraft holds 155 passengers and several tons of fuel, you are over a DENSELY populated area.), watch that seven-minute video.  Thoughts about the Captain?  What was he thinking and doing? Any lessons here for us as investors?

Was he thinking about this? FEARLESS

Was his reaction similar to this? Here’s JOHNNY!

I used to be a pilot of small aircraft so I am biased. Is there any connection between how the pilot acted and investing? The situation and investing?   Was the pilot lucky?   Was the pilot a hero?  Would the pilot consider himself to be a hero?   Why don’t we give parades to mothers who don’t kill their children?

Take a break and go back to the first link.  Before listening again, think about what you would do as the pilot. How many decisions do you have to make and how much time do you have to decide?   What would you be fearful of? Why?   How should we handle fear?  Why are we the enemy?

Don’t hesitate to disagree, contradict or point out other questions.  Do you think that personality has a lot to do with how the person responds–the nature vs. nurture argument?   Buffett said that once you have over a 125 IQ then success is a function of temperament and character. Do you agree? What about this guy: Do You Love the Virgin Mary?.  Can you work around temperament? By the way, have you ever noticed any similar traits among Seth Klarman, Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, Walter Schloss?

One goal of this post is to reinforce the power of emotions in terms of your readings from lesson 1.