Analyst Handbook Chapter 1: What is Investing?

RESTROOM

Gold is not necessary. I have no interest in gold. We’ll build a solid state, without an ounce of gold behind it. Anyone who sells above the set prices, let him be marched off to a concentration. That’s the bastion of money.~Adolf Hitler

There are about three hundred economists in the world who are against gold, and they think that gold is a barbarous relic – and they might be right. Unfortunately, there are three billion inhabitants of the world who believe in gold.~Janos Fekete

Chapter 1: Analyst Book for CSInvesting_Chapter 1_What is Investing

Inserts:

  1. Chapter 20_Margin of Safety Concept
  2. Mr Market by Ben Graham
  3. Mises on Money_Vol_3 by Gary North

Postscript (Adding)  Montier

http://www.scribd.com/doc/86467853/Value-Investing

Read–Financials: Opportunity or Value Trap   on 13 August 2008. Mr. Montier does a good analysis at trying to find a margin of safety in banking stocks on the eve of the 2008/2009 credit crisis. 

Thank you for your prior comments on the introductory chapter. My main takeaways were: 1. many liked the commentary in the case study and 2. Perhaps break up the large intro into smaller sections.

Listen carefully to this interview with Paul Singer

Paul Singer

 

 

 

 

A Reader Seeks Guidance

I appreciate your feedback and willingness to guide me in the right direction. I wanted to go over my current situation and get your feedback.

By trade, I’m a computer engineer. But it seems my passion now lies in investing and creating a more balanced and comfortable life for myself where I can control my outcome, not some company where my best interests aren’t exactly aligned.

I consider myself a buy and hold investor. I don’t try to beat the market in the short term. Most of my holdings are aligned with the motley’s fool’s picks (stock advisor, rule breaker) and I have had very good success with them (high fliers such as chipotle, netflix, but also steady picks such as berkshire b shares, costco, etc). But I also want to learn to do better and be able to pick from the right ones and ultimately be able to do my own research. I enjoy the gardner brother’s research and can align with their philosophies but I also try to learn about Buffet’s and Pabrai’s philosophies.

I’m currently diversified into a basket of 50 picks in my IRA and about 20 picks in my regular account. I would like to learn to concentrate more into the better picks and have a portfolio of only 20 picks each. Throughout the past 10 years, I have seen returns upwards of 15% compounded annually in each account so I’m very happy with the results as they also include the 2008-09 recession and of course the subsequent runup. I would be very happy maintaining above 15% returns but aspire to hit 20% some day with better knowledge and understanding the business, financials, and the competitive advantage you mentioned. I’m in search for my first 10 bagger, I’m close with Chipotle around 8 bagger. I aspire to hold companies for decades.

I don’t know much about valuing companies or reading the balance sheets / cash flows / income statements so I use the motley fool’s picks to vet the financial side and then try to align my understanding of the industry to pick the stocks I’m comfortable with and can relate to. For instance, I shop at costco, use linked in, buy apple products due to their convenience and reliability compared to previously owner android and windows products, etc.

What advice would you have for a person like me? I’ve read through all of the buffet’s letter to shareholders, and have just recently started going through Pabrai’s.


My Response
Why don’t you take an accounting course online or at a school near you or get a programmed text with problem sets and the solutions. Then take Graham’s book on reading financial statements found in book folder (Use Search Box on this blog). Then go through Chipotle and find out what owner earnings are, how much they invest to grow and try to value the company based on different growth assumptions. Be conservative.

Look for companies with fairly consistent and moderately high return on capital or a return on assets over 12%. Look for strong companies and set up a watch list.

Google: Merrill Lynch’s How to Read a Financial Report.

Study how companies develop competitive advantages–read Strategic Logic (Search Blog)

Keep your expectations reasonable. Wait for my Analyst Handbook which will take you from beginning to end.  Many investors will be lucky to SURVIVE the next five years.   Red lights are flashing–Klarman returning cash, Tesla, Netflix roaring, IPOs on fire, and the belief that markets will never decline due to perpetual non-taper.

Good luck

Gift from Heaven: A Classic Guide to Special Situations Investing.

https://www.hightail.com/download/OGkOGNlYSs5RmJ2WnRVag

SPEC Sits

HAVE A HAPPY WEEKEND!

 

If you want more to study go here: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/

Puzzle

Stand

An Investment Puzzle

A_Killer_Puzzle

http://fundooprofessor.wordpress.com/2013/09/25/a-killer-puzzle/

Relaxo_Lecture

http://fundooprofessor.wordpress.com/category/security-business-analysis/

Could there be a U.S. Dollar Crisis? http://mises.org/books/dollarcrisis.pdf

 Inspiration

Housekeeping

 Yesterday’s $40 drop in gold. A gift.

Gold Slammed

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GLD

Today, gold jumps back up $30. I have often wondered by gold bulls complain about “manipulators” slamming the gold price. Ah men!  If someone wishes to make an uneconomic decision or force weak speculators to sell then they subsidize more rational buyers. Ultimately, for higher or lower prices, the fundamentals will prevail.

If gold is sound money with supply only changing about 1.5% a year then what causes such volatility?  The amount of speculative hot dollars jumping from one pocket to the other.

Housekeeping

As I grind my way through writing the CSInvesting Handbook, I will not be posting much unless someone wants to share material.   I hope to have another chapter in a few days. Thanks.

Rough, Rough Draft of Intro to CSInvesting Analyst’s Handbook

Death

INTRODUCTION 

Below is a rough draft of one of many chapters of the CSInvesting Analyst’s Handbook.  The goal will be to inform and organize all the material on this blog to help others teach themselves.  Criticism–be tough–is welcomed.  The intro is the easy part, building up the other chapters will be a tougher job.

Analyst Book for CSInvesting_Introduction

LEATHER APRON:

The latest version of Leather Apron Letter is available for download:

The Leather Apron Letter 9/27/2013

To subscribe, go to http://leatherapronletter.com/ and enter your email address in the subscribe box.

If you wish to unsubscribe, go to http://leatherapronletter.com/ and enter your email address in the unsubscribe box.

 

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!

Case Studies; Ray Dalio Interview

Go Straight

Live like you will die tomorrow and learn like you will live forever–The Two-Penny Philosopher

Folder Icon VI_2013 View Folder

Ray_Dalio_Interview_–_Academy_of_Achievement

Wall Street Won; James Grant on Gold/Tapering/The Fed; Housekeeping

Oh, no my Red Flags are flying when I see a national magazine opine on the market. I feel like this: http://youtu.be/2bCwyzT0Z6E

BULL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

“The Money They Can’t Print”

Gold and Silver

Jim Grant shared an email with (Fleckenstein) that he sent to an investment committee he is on. The committee was considering selling its gold position, and what follows are Jim’s reasons as to why that would be a bad idea:

“I just read the HSBC piece. It asserts, among other things, that gold’s bull run is over, that the future is ‘foreseeable’ and that ‘our average price forecasts for this year’ will rise.

“It seems that the analyst is just as confused as the rest of us. The future is not ‘foreseeable,’ neither by the central bankers nor anybody else. We may handicap the odds on future events, but that is a very different thing from foreseeing those events unfold.

“Naturally, in the gold market, price action is mesmerizing. The metal earns nothing and pays no dividend. Impossible to value by CFA-approved techniques, gold becomes its price chart. These days, the chart looks bad.

The One Time You Can Divide By Zero“But there is, ultimately, a kind of fundamental value. The gold price is finally the reciprocal of the world’s faith in the thoughts and methods of Ben S. Bernanke and of his successor at the Federal Reserve. The greater the confidence, the lower the price, and vice versa. If we, as a committee, trust the Federal Reserve to remove the trillions of dollars it has materialized out of nowhere, exactly when the time is ripe, we should be out of the metal and out of the mining shares. If, however, we continue to entertain well-founded doubts, I suggest that we stick. On further weakness, I suggest that we add.

“Gold’s latest sinking spell perversely coincides with the dwindling of America’s geopolitical status in the world. Gold is selling off as uncertainty grows about the identity and thinking of the next Fed chairman, about the efficacy of QE and about the world’s tolerance to endure even the slightest tightening in the Fed’s unprecedentedly easy monetary policy.

All In, Whether We Like It or Not“For the first time in history, the world is on a universal fiat-money standard. And for the first time in history, central banks are pressing interest rates to zero and doubling down on zero percent through quantitative easing.

“If I were about 30 years younger, I would assure you that these policies will certainly, absolutely and indubitably fail. Forty years ago, I could have given you the date. But I have learned enough to understand that, in markets, nothing is out of the question. Gold — especially now, when it is out of favor — is a hedge against what we can’t know but which, based on centuries of monetary history, we are well advised to suspect. Pure and simple, gold is the money they can’t print. It’s good to have a little.”

Value Investors on ABX (Amer. Barrick, Senior Gold Producer)

CSInvesting: The lesson here is to do YOUR OWN thinking. I am as bullish on some (certain, not all) mid-tier and junior gold companies as anybody, but note the last sentence: Plus, a big chunk of our recent purchases occurred at price levels where the stock was trading a dozen years ago when gold was $300+/ounce.  Such a deal?  What matters is not the absolute price of gold but the spread between the gold price and input costs like labor, oil, rubber, etc. Think through the implications.   I don’t see how they think ABX has a great balance sheet as compared to other competitors………..

Pitkowsky: Wally, over the last few months, we have significantly increased our holding in Barrick Gold (ABX), which had been a small position up until that point.

Gold over the last few months has experienced tremendous volatility in the price of the metal.  And the mining stocks have experienced even more volatility in their share prices.  Barrick has suffered over the last couple of years from a host of different mistakes: too much leverage; lack of focus on returns; political mistakes related to new developments they’ve been working on.

But there’s been a management change there.  And the new CEO clearly has a different focus and a different set of marching-orders from the board, which is to reduce the leverage, to continue to be the low-cost operator, to resolve the political issues they have, and to focus more on returns — not just getting bigger.  And we’ve taken note.

We added significantly to our holdings in Barrick Gold this spring as the price of gold and the gold miner stocks collapsed.  Barrick is a low cost producer and is worth much more if gold prices are stable or higher but there is risk if gold plummets.  The new CEO has a different focus than the prior CEO.  He is focused on returns not size and less leverage is better.  They have low-cost and world-class properties, and ABX is a business capable of generating attractive levels of free cash flow. We also like that ABX is a cheap and leveraged hedge against worldwide currency debasement policies being pursued by central banks.  We don’t spend a lot of time worrying about macroeconomics, but we have been concerned by the scale of central bank interventions.  Plus, a big chunk of our recent purchases occurred at price levels where the stock was trading a dozen years ago when gold was $300+/ounce. Read the whole interview:
Interview with Larry Pitkowsky and Keith Trauner of Goodhaven
(MSFT, HPQ, ABX)

Housekeeping:

A busy week, but I hope to have my introduction to CSInvesting Handbook posting by week’s end……………fingers crossed.

 

How to Read and Get SMARTER

Go Straight

Ask to be on his email list for incredibly insightful articles. dahhuilaudavid@gmail.com
The Buffett Formula — How To Get Smarter from http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/ 

“The best thing a human being can do is to help another human being know more.”
— Charlie Munger

“Go to bed smarter than when you woke up.”
— Charlie Munger

Most people go though life not really getting any smarter. Why? They simply won’t do the work required.

It’s easy to come home, sit on the couch, watch TV and zone out until bed time rolls around. But that’s not really going to help you get smarter.

Sure you can go into the office the next day and discuss the details of last night’s episode of Mad Men or Game of Thrones. Sure you know what happened on Survivor. But that’s not knowledge accumulation, it’s a mind-numbing sedative.

You can acquire knowledge if you want it.

In fact there is a simple formula, which if followed is almost certain to make you smarter over time. Simple but not easy.

It involves a lot of hard work.

We’ll call it the Buffett formula, named after Warren Buffett and his longtime business partner at Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger. These two are an extraordinary combination of minds. They are also learning machines.

Read more every day here: http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/

 

Commenting on what it means to have knowledge, in How To Read A Book, (PLEASE follow that link!) Mortimer Adler writes: “The person who says he knows what he thinks but cannot express it usually does not know what he thinks.”

Can you explain what you know to someone else? Try it. Pick an idea you think you have a grasp of and write it out on a sheet of paper as if you were explaining it to someone else. (see The Feynman Technique and here, if you want to improve retention.)

Nature or Nurture?

Another way to get smarter, outside of reading, is to start surround yourself with people who are not afraid to challenge your ideas.

Like what you’re reading? Join thousands of others and get a free weekly update via email.

“Develop into a lifelong self-learner through voracious reading; cultivate curiosity and strive to become a little wiser every day.” — Charlie Munger

Read more posts on Farnam Street on:
 • 

LTStockPrices

Progress, changes in the index and more money in circulation.

Have a good weekend.  I highly recommend, HOW TO READ A BOOK by Adler.

You will become a better analyst/investor. Plus, I need everyone here to become a whole lot smarter the next time I pose a “brain crusher.”

Brain Crusher Answer: Amarillo Slim Plays Ping Pong with a Coke Bottle

Amarillo Slim

This Solution answers the post, Thinking Out of the Box post found here:

http://csinvesting.org/2011/10/15/think-outside-the-box-case-study-challenge-yourself/

AMARILLO SLIM HUSTLES THE HUSTLERS.

Excerpts from Amarillo Slim in a World Full of Fat People by Amarillo Slim Preston

Bobby Riggs, the 1939 Wimbledon Tennis Champion tried to hustle Amarillo Slim in Ping Pong. Riggs was looking to bust Slim’s skinny ass.

Slim tells the story, “I told Riggs I would play him in Ping Pong straight up with one stipulation: that I got to choose the paddles.

“We both use the same paddle?” Bobby asked.

“Yessir.”

“So when you show up with two of the same paddles,
can I get my choice of which one of them?”

“Yessir, so long as I can bring the paddles.”

Bobby thought I was pulling a schoolboy’s scam—that it was a weight thing or that one of the paddles was hollow or something. But once I told him that he could choose whichever of the two paddles he wanted to use, he couldn’t post his money fast enough.

We bet $10,000 and agreed to play at two o’clock the next day. Before I left, just to avoid any misunderstanding, I confirmed the bet: We were to play a game of Ping Pong to twenty-one, each using the paddles of my choosing.

I showed up the next day at the Bel Air Country Club ready to wage battle. When Bobby asked to see the paddles, I reached into my satchel and handed him two skillets, the exact same weight and size, and told him he could use either one. Now, Bobby was about as coordinated an athlete that ever lived, but he was swinging that skillet like a fry cook on speed. It wasn’t until I had him buried that he started to get the hand of that skillet, but it wasn’t soon enough. I won the game 21-8, and it could have been much worse.

Once again I proved that you can make a living beating a champion just by using your head instead of your ass. The easiest person in the world to hustle is a hustler, and Bobby had taken the bait like a country hog after town slop. You see, I had been practicing with that skillet since I saw him in Houston, and after I collected the money, I shook Bobby’s hand and we both had a good laugh.

Naturally, word spread like wildfire about old Slim fleecing Bobby Riggs, and seven or eight months after it happened, I was in Knoxville, Tennessee, at an American Legion club, to play some poker. There were quite a few wise guys there, including a man named Lefty, who said to me, “Slim that was a pretty good thing you did, playing Ping-Pong with Riggs.” Then Lefty said to me, “I’ve got a buddy that can beat you at Ping-Pong.”

“You haven’t got a buddy who can beat me if I choose the paddles,” I said.

Now, this guy knew how I beat Bobby. The whole world knew how I beat Bobby. And I knew he knew it, so I couldn’t just set up a match to play with skillets, now, could I?

I knew I had to find a way to relieve old Lefty of his money.
I left for Amarillo the next day, wondering how in the hell I was going to find a way to beat Lefty’s pal at Ping-Pong. A few days later, I was drinking Coke from a glass bottle in between games of a friendly pick-up game of Ping-Pong.  For fun, I reached down with the bottle and hit the Ping-Pong ball and it went plumb over the net.

coke

I tried to do that again but I couldn’t. You see, there is an area of only about a sixteenth of an inch on a bottle that will make the ball go over the net. So I practiced and practiced until I could hit the ball over the net every time, and right then I knew that Coke bottle was going to make me a boatload of money.

My only problem was that I couldn’t just show up in Tennessee looking for Lefty—that would have awoken the dead—so I had to find me a reason to go back to Tennessee. I waited a few months for the next big poker game up there, and when I showed up, Lefty didn’t waste any time approaching me. “I guess you’ve been practicing your Ping-Pong back in Amarillo,” he said.

You said it, Lefty. I’ve been playing Ping-Pong all day, every day, for thirty hours a day.”

“That right? My friend will be here in two days.”’

Well, I’m gonna do a little bit of fishing as soon as I bust these poker players.  If he wants to play me some, let me choose the paddles and he is got him a game.”

“What if he is a good player?”

“I don’t give a damn if he is a good player or an aviator. If I get to choose the paddles, we will play.”

“Oh, I’ll guarantee you he’ll play.”

So I went fishing for a couple of days, and when I came back, boy, they didn’t disappoint me with their ringer. Wouldn’t you know it, but they had gotten themselves the world-champion table-tennis player from Taiwan, and he was there waiting for me, licking his chops like a dog at a luau.

Let’s get it on!” Lefty said.

“No,” I said, savoring the moment. “Let’s post our money and play thirty days from now. I need to practice a little, now that I see you got yourself a real-life
Ping-Pong champion.”

While I can play a fair game of Ping-Pong with a skillet, I am not interested in speculating, nor am I interested in making a small score. You see, friend, when I make a wager, the bet has already been won. And if I’m gonna win, I sure as hell want to break somebody doing it.

Even though Lefty and the rest of them wise guys had suitcases full of money, I knew that if I stalled, word would spread that old Slim was going to receive his
comeuppance—and Lefty would have the rest of his rich buddies there to get a
piece of me, too. So we agreed to hold the match in thirty days—and then we’d
play for real money. Not only did I want to give Lefty an opportunity to tell all his associates, but I also wanted to give that champion even more time to practice with his skillet.

I made sure we agreed that we were to play a game of Ping-Pong to twenty-one, each using the paddles of my choosing.

About a month later, just a day before the match, I got a call from one of my associates saying that the champ was practicing with the biggest frying pan this side of Texas. That wasn’t news to me—I knew that was their intention all along-but I suppose they underestimated this here country cowboy.

The next day I arrived in Tennessee I bet with everybody who wanted to bet against me at even money, and when I couldn’t get any more action, I bet everything else I had laying 6 to 5, which meant that if I lost, I’d pay them suckers $6 for every $5 they bet me.  Now it was time to play, and everyone was standing around waiting for me to pull out those skillets. They figured I was just stalling when I went over to a vending machine, put in a dime, and bought a bottle of Coca-Cola. Then I put in another dime and bought another one. I opened both bottles and walked over to a wastebasket and dumped the Coke right out.

Lefty and the rest of the crowd were getting impatient, but I didn’t say a word. I simply walked over to the Ping-Pong table with the Coke bottle and I said to that
champion, “It’s your choice of paddle, son. Which one will it be?”

“Paddles?” he asked.

“Yeah, these here Coke bottle are our paddles. Have your pick.” Well, that boy looked like he couldn’t swallow boiled okra!

Once he grabbed one of the bottle, I said, “I’ll even give you the choice—do you want  to serve or return serve first?”

This champion glanced over at Lefty, who didn’t look so good himself. “Well, goddamn, “Lefty said, “take the serve.”

“Okay,” I said, “Let’s go.”

On his first round of serves, he never even hit the ball over the net. Not one shot. So it was love-5 when he threw me the ball. When I served it over—I’ll give that boy credit, he did hit it every time, but it would go either straight up in the air
or right into the net. He never did return one of my serves.

I’d rather not say how much I had on the match, because it caused a severe audit when word got around. But suffice it to say that no one—not even a world champion—ever challenged me to a game of Ping-Pong again.

I like to bet on anything—as long as the odds are in my favor.
….I also learned that there are people who love action and others who love money. The first group is called suckers, and the second is called professional
gamblers, and it was a cinch which one I wanted to be.

Rather than try to take advantage of the ignorance of a sucker for a few dollars, I take aim at the ego of a millionaire and try to win me a few thousand. If there is one fatal flaw, the Achilles’ hell of every
gamble, it is hubris.  No gambler ever wants to lose face, and I have used that psychological edge to my advantage. All I have to do is play to a wealthy man’s ego, and not only can I get him to gamble, but I can get him to gamble with me for life

One person figured it out. Excellent. To pay him the $500,000, I will need each of you who tried but fell short to send me $500,000–looks like I got about $5 million coming my way!

Have a Great Weekend!