Yearly Archives: 2012

Part 2: Using Value-Line Case Study-Balchem (BCPC)

Reach of Federal Power is Questioned (Obama Care)

It’s “the old Jack Benny thing,” Justice Scalia said, invoking the joke where a robber holds up the famously stingy comedian and says, “‘Your money or your life,’ and, you know, he says, ‘I’m thinking, I’m thinking,'” Justice Scalia said. “It’s funny, because there is no choice.”

BalChem (BCPC)

Initial post on using Value-Line:http://wp.me/p1PgpH-Bc

Then I posed a case study of a Value-Line with the market prices and name removed here:
https://rcpt.yousendit.com/1436735756/193a1b94378638992ed275c546460c22

The company in the case study is Balchem: https://rcpt.yousendit.com/1439168384/30543fcee251a06356192fe6d4de2c7f

Take a few minutes to review the Value-Line to determine if your perceptions of your initial analysis changed. Ask if the company is worth studying further. There is no correct answer; it depends upon your investment philosophy.

Part 3 will be my discussion of Balchem using the Value-Line posted tonight or early tomorrow. In the spirit of full disclosure, I have owned Balchem (BCPC) back in 1996 – 1999 (before the 10x rise in price!) so take my words with an antidote. I bought on the basis of book value, made money, but I had no clue back then of what was a good or bad business. I was buying on the basis of cheap metrics. You can make money but still make a mistake. Ignorance was my blinder.

Below are a few more Value-Lines which I will discuss in the next post (part 3)

CPST:http://www.yousendit.com/download/M3BueEVha0RWRC9FdzhUQw

MLR:https://rcpt.yousendit.com/1439169064/e81960cdf6b1c4d5b009edf49dc727c2

PEP:http://www.yousendit.com/download/M3BueEVha0RwM241SE1UQw

Imagine sorting through a huge pile of mail. You need to discard companies that are of no interest. Value-Line publishes updates on each company about 4 times a year, so you will become more adept sorting companies the more times you review Value-Line. At first, the process will be time-consuming, but you will learn more about companies, valuations and market perceptions.

Mises on Money, Euro Crisis and ObamaCare in Context

Mises on the basics of money:http://mises.org/daily/5972/Mises-on-the-Basics-of-Money  A good primer and review on what is money.

Audio of the causes and effects of the Euro Crisis: http://www.lewrockwell.com/lewrockwell-show/wp-content/uploads/266_North.mp3

Audio of David Stockman on what is to come from the financial crisis:http://www.lewrockwell.com/lewrockwell-show/wp-content/uploads/265_Stockman.mp3 This guy is a former insider.

Back to the future on Obamacare or why we are losing our liberties: http://townhall.com/columnists/thomassowell/2012/03/28/back_to_the_future

Note the absurdity of unchecked government regulation–a government bureaucratic 2,000 miles away can tell you what you can grow on your own property. What will be next? How many times you can breathe?

When a 1942 Supreme Court decision that most people never heard of makes the front page of the New York Times in 2012, you know that something unusual is going on.

What makes that 1942 case — Wickard v. Filburn — important today is that it stretched the federal government’s power so far that the Obama administration is using it as an argument to claim before today’s Supreme Court that it has the legal authority to impose ObamaCare mandates on individuals.

Roscoe Filburn was an Ohio farmer who grew some wheat to feed his family and some farm animals. But the U.S. Department of Agriculture fined him for growing more wheat than he was allowed to grow under the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938, which was passed under Congress’ power to regulate interstate commerce.

Filburn pointed out that his wheat wasn’t sold, so that it didn’t enter any commerce, interstate or otherwise. Therefore the federal government had no right to tell him how much wheat he grew on his own farm, and which never left his farm.

The Tenth Amendment to the Constitution says that all powers not explicitly given to the federal government belong to the states or to the people. So you might think that Filburn was right.

But the Supreme Court said otherwise. Even though the wheat on Filburn’s farm never entered the market, just the fact that “it supplies a need of the man who grew it which would otherwise be reflected by purchases in the open market” meant that it affected interstate commerce. So did the fact that the home-grown wheat could potentially enter the market.

The implications of this kind of reasoning reached far beyond farmers and wheat. Once it was established that the federal government could regulate not only interstate commerce itself, but anything with any potential effect on interstate commerce, the Tenth Amendment’s limitations on the powers of the federal government virtually disappeared.

Over the years, “interstate commerce” became magic words to justify almost any expansion of the federal government’s power, in defiance of the Tenth Amendment. That is what the Obama administration is depending on to get today’s Supreme Court to uphold its power to tell people that they have to buy the particular health insurance specified by the federal government.

There was consternation in 1995 when the Supreme Court ruled that carrying a gun near a school was not interstate commerce. That conclusion might seem like only common sense to most people, but it was a close 5 to 4 decision, and it sparked outrage when the phrase “interstate commerce” failed to work its magic in justifying an expansion of the federal government’s power.

The 1995 case involved a federal law forbidding anyone from carrying a gun near a school. The states all had the right to pass such laws, and most did, but the issue was whether the federal government could pass such a law under its power to regulate interstate commerce.

The underlying argument was similar to that in the 1942 case of Wickard v. Filburn: School violence can affect education, which can affect productivity, which can affect interstate commerce.

Since virtually everything affects virtually everything else, however remotely, “interstate commerce” can justify virtually any expansion of government power, by this kind of sophistry.

The principle that the legal authority to regulate X implies the authority to regulate anything that can affect X is a huge and dangerous leap of logic, in a world where all sorts of things have some effect on all sorts of other things.

As an example, take a law that liberals, conservatives and everybody else would agree is valid — namely, that cars have to stop at red lights. Local governments certainly have the right to pass such laws and to punish those who disobey them.

No doubt people who are tired or drowsy are more likely to run through a red light than people who are rested and alert. But does that mean that local governments should have the power to order people when to go to bed and when to get up, because their tiredness can have an effect on the likelihood of their driving through a red light?

The power to regulate indirect effects is not a slippery slope. It is the disastrous loss of freedom that lies at the bottom of a slippery slope.

 

Buffett in his Early Years

Thanks to a reader: A link to Buffett’s Early Letters and his Portfolio
http://www.futureblind.com/ 2008/08/early-berkshire- hathaway-letters/ http://www.gurufocus.com/news/ 169950/how-warren-buffett- made-his-first-100000

How Buffett Got Started

A great story by Buffett in the latest issue of ForbesLife about how he got started (with some wonderful old pictures of him and his family from the 1950s):

Forbes, 3/26/2012    Warren Buffett’s $50 Billion Decision

This article, by Warren Buffett, as told to Randall Lane, appears in the upcoming April issue of ForbesLife magazine, as part of its “When I Was 25″ series. By Warren Buffett

Benjamin Graham had been my idol ever since I read his book The Intelligent Investor. I had wanted to go to Columbia Business School because he was a professor there, and after I got out of Columbia, returned to Omaha, and started selling securities, I didn’t forget about him. Between 1951 and 1954, I made a pest of myself, sending him frequent securities ideas. Then I got a letter back: “Next time you’re in New York, come and see me.”

So there I went, and he offered me a job at Graham-Newman Corp., which he ran with Jerry Newman. Everyone says that A.W. Jones started the hedge fund industry, but Graham-Newman’s sister partnership, Newman and Graham, was actually an earlier fund. I moved to White Plains, New York, with my wife, Susie, who was four months pregnant, and my daughter. Every morning, I got on a train to Grand Central and went to work.

It was a short-lived position: The next year, when I was 25, Mr. Graham—that’s what I called him then—gave me a heads-up that he was going to retire. Actually, he did more than that: He offered me the chance to replace him, with Jerry’s son Mickey as the new senior partner and me as the new junior partner. It was a very tiny fund—$6 million or $7 million—but it was a famous fund.

This was a traumatic decision. Here was my chance to step into the shoes of my hero—I even named my first son Howard Graham Buffett. (Howard was for my father.) But I also wanted to come back to Omaha. I probably went to work for a month thinking every morning that I would tell Mr. Graham I was going to leave. But it was hard to do.

The thing is, when I got out of college, I had $9,800, but by the end of 1955, I was up to $127,000. I thought, I’ll go back to Omaha, take some college classes, and read a lot—I was going to retire! I figured we could live on $12,000 a year, and off my $127,000 asset base, I could easily make that. I told my wife, “Compound interest guarantees I’m going to get rich.”

My wife and kids went back to Omaha just ahead of me. I got in the car, and on my way west checked out companies I was interested in investing in. It was due diligence. I stopped in Hazleton, Pennsylvania, to visit the Jeddo-Highland Coal Company. I visited the Kalamazoo Stove & Furnace Company in Michigan, which was being liquidated. I went to see what the building looked like, what they had for sale. I went to Delaware, Ohio, to check out Greif Bros. Cooperage. (Who knows anything about cooperage anymore?) Its chairman met with me. I didn’t have appointments; I would just drop in. I found that people always talked to me. All these people helped me.

In Omaha, I rented a house at 5202 Underwood for $175 a month. I told my wife, “I’d be glad to buy a house, but that’s like a carpenter selling his toolkit.” I didn’t want to use up my capital.

I had no plans to start a partnership, or even have a job. I had no worries as long as I could operate on my own. I certainly did not want to sell securities to other people again. But by pure accident, seven people, including a few of my relatives, said to me, “You used to sell stocks, and we want you to tell us what to do with our money.” I replied, “I’m not going to do that again, but I’ll form a partnership like Ben and Jerry had, and if you want to join me, you can.” My father-in-law, my college roommate, his mother, my aunt Alice, my sister, my brother-in-law, and my lawyer all signed on. I also had my hundred dollars. That was the beginning—totally accidental.

When I formed that partnership, we had dinner, the seven of them plus me—I’m 99 percent sure it was at the Omaha Club. I bought a ledger for 49 cents, and they brought their checks. Before I took their money, I gave them a half sheet of paper that I had made carbons of—something I called the ground rules. I said, “There are two or four pages of partnership legal documents. Don’t worry about that. I’ll tell you what’s in it, and you won’t get any surprises.

“But these ground rules are the philosophy. If you are in tune with me, then let’s go. If you aren’t, I understand. I’m not going to tell you what we own or anything like that. I want to get bouquets when I deserve bouquets, and I want to get soft fruit thrown at me when I deserve it. But I don’t want fruit thrown at me if I’m down 5 percent, and the market’s down 15 percent—I’m going to think I deserve a bouquet for that.” We made everything clear, and they gave me their checks.

I did no solicitation, but more checks began coming from people I didn’t know. Back in New York, Graham-Newman was being liquidated. There was a college president up in Vermont, Homer Dodge, who had been invested with Graham, and he asked, “Ben, what should I do with my money?” Ben said, “Well, there’s this kid who used to work for me.…” So Dodge drove out to Omaha, to this rented house I lived in. I was 25, looked about 17, and acted like 12. He said, “What are you doing?” I said, “Here’s what I’m doing with my family, and I’ll do it with you.”

Although I had no idea, age 25 was a turning point. I was changing my life, setting up something that would turn into a fairly good-size partnership called Berkshire Hathaway. I wasn’t scared. I was doing something I liked, and I’m still doing it.

The Media, Market Logic and History

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

Study history, study history, study history–Seth Klarman.

Contributing to….euphoria are two further factors little noted in our time or in past times. The first is the extreme brevity of the financial memory. In consequence, financial disaster is quickly forgotten. In further consequence, when the same or closely similar circumstances occur again…they are hailed by a new, often youthful, and always supremely self-confident generation as a brilliantly innovative discovery….There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance.  Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of the those who do not have insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present. — John K. Galbraith.

The Media, Market Logic and History

Read the two articles below. The Death of Equities was written in 1979 proclaiming a perpetual bear market for stocks while the other, Why Stocks are Riskier Than You Think, was recently written on March 12, 2012.  The point is not that these articles have no merit, but what are the illogical premises and conclusions in the articles? Can you think of at least three? What lessons of history can you learn?

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/mar2009/pi20090310_263462.htm 

The Death of Equities: How inflation is destroying the stock market

Editor’s Note: The huge declines in U.S. stocks in recent months have revived interest in a Business Week cover story from August 1979 entitled “The Death of Equities.” At the time the story was written, the stock market had sustained serious losses and the long-term health of the U.S. economy was a significant concern. The story has aroused some controversy over the years, as the stock market staged a strong comeback in the decades that followed its publication. But few, if any, market forecasters were willing to call such a recovery at the time, and the story provides a telling look at how inflation had ravaged the market landscape—and investor psychology—at the close of the 1970s. So step back in time with us and read BW’s take on the state of the market in August 1979, as originally published in the Aug. 13, 1979 industrial edition of Business Week.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204795304577221052377253224.html

Why Stocks Are Riskier Than You Think (March 12, 2012)

Most people can get the money they need for retirement without gambling heavily on equities, say Zvi Bodie and Rachelle Taqqu

Meet the Ex

If you can’t find at least three fallacies, then you will have to meet my Ex. Here she is: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=E55ni_xc4ww

History Lessons

Several fallacies from the two articles that you were asked to read are discussed in Howard Marks’ article: It’s Déjà vu All Over Again.

http://www.oaktreecapital.com/MemoTree/D%C3%A9j%C3%A0%20Vu%20All%20Over%20Again%2003_19_12.pdf 

If two major business publications–Business Week and The Wall Street Journal–have articles with such muddled thinking then imagine what you encounter in your daily reading.

As Mr. Marks writes, “History amply demonstrates the tendency of investors and commentators alike to be pessimistic when the negatives collect, depressing prices, and optimistic when things are going well and prices are soaring. The lessons of history are highly instructive. Applying them isn’t easy, but they mustn’t be overlooked.”

Be on guard!

Chapter 11 in Competition Demystified: Games Companies Play, Of Interest

Obvious prospects for physical growth in a business do not translate into obvious profits for investors.–Ben Graham

Games Companies Play: A Structured Approach to Competitive Strategy, Part II Entry/Preemption Games.

This chapter may help you with your case study in Fox Broadcasting (Previous post found here:http://wp.me/p1PgpH-AK).

Question 1: What are the four characteristics of entry/preemption or “quantity” competitive situations that differ from pricing issues?

Question 2: What can a potential entrant do to discourage incumbents from resisting its entrance?

Question 3: You are faced with analyzing a competitive industry, and you want to understand what the players might do. Describe what techniques you might use to accomplish this analysis.

Weekend Reading

Ben Bernanke gives his point of view: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/04/the-villain/8901/

Prize awarded to anyone who can explain the following. If central planning of an economy has been shown repeatedly to fail–witness USSR, Communist China, Cuba, North Korea, Welfare Europe–how can the Federal Reserve succeed in manipulating interest rates for a multi-trillion dollar economy?

How is Ben doing? Purchasing Power Calculator:   http://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

Corporate compensation or Failure is the New Success:http://prudent-speculation.blogspot.com/2012/03/gimme-failure-baby.html  Why is this not surprising?  Why do corporate CEOs receive such distorted compensation. Hint: follow the money!

The government builds a listening center. Comforting. http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2012/03/ff_nsadatacenter/all/1

Next week while you do your case studies, we will discuss how to read a Value-Line Tear Sheet.  Do you know that almost any major library will have Value-Line available on-line for your use from home? It doesn’t get better than that!

Have a good weekend.

Chapter 10: Fox Becomes a Network (Into the Henhouse)

In my house there’s this light switch that doesn’t do anything. Every so often I would flick it on and off just to check. Yesterday, I got a call from a woman in Madagascar. She said, “Cut it out.” — Steven Wright

Chapter 10 in Competition Demystified: Into the Hen House

HBR Case Study on Fox News Network: https://rcpt.yousendit.com/1427965236/6c910671770adc188996bd7639688499

QUESTION 1: Describe how the three networks (ABC, NBC, and CBS) played the prisoner’s dilemma game in the 1960s and 1970s in regarding advertising pricing, advertising inventory, purchasing of shows, and hiring of talent.

QUESTION 2: How did Fox influence the other networks’ responses to its efforts to get behind their barriers to enter their market?

QUESTION 3: How effective was Fox’s strategy of having synergistic media business?

The analysis will be posted next Friday. Good luck!

STep Lightly

Have a good weekend and step lightly: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spv1a5NMyvw&feature=related

In Good Faith

There is a sucker born every minute–P.T. Barnum

I am on several penny stock lists so I receive many promotions–fertile ground for finding short ideas occasionally. A by-product of this means I am a target of email like this………..

Re: In Good faith,

My name is Mrs. Maimouna Khalid, this as a personal mail directed to you and I request it to be treated as such. I lost my husband during the civil war in November 5th 2010. (Tactic one: build sympathy)

My personal doctor sent a letter of medical checkup last year March 2011 and testifies that I have a lung cancer, which can easily take off my life soon. I found it uneasy to survive myself, because a lot of investment cannot be run and manage by me again. (Tactic two: more sympathy, immediate action and set the hook).

I quickly call up a prophet as my adviser to give me positive thinking on this solution, He ministered to me to share my properties, wealth, to motherless baby/orphanage homes/people that need money for survival, both students that need money. (Tactic 3: provide another reason to help–help the orphanages).

I am writing this letter to you to help me distribute this(USD$12.5M )Twelve Million Five Hundred Thousand United States Dollars kept with a Fiduciary fund holder here in Abidjan Cote d’Ivoire to motherless babies/orphanage homes/people that need money for survivor in your country. (Tactic 4: A “reason” for me to be involved.)

15% of this money will be for you and your family; you must give 75% to (Motherless homes), orphanages, and widows in your country. (Tactic 5: appeal to my greed)

I will give more information to you as I await your response immediately. You are blessed.

 I certainly am blessed!

Sallam,

 

Mrs. Maimouna Khalid

 

Preventing Recession; Secret to Investing, Fascism, Billionaire lessons

Kill the poor?

A government secret meeting on a full-proof method to prevent recessions. Brilliant! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owI7DOeO_yg&feature=related

The Secret to Investing?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jN1ZBvH8VUk

Fascism

http://mises.org/daily/5963/The-Vampire-Economy-and-the-Market

Billionaire Secrets

http://www.jamesaltucher.com/2012/03/the-spanx-woman-is-worth-a-billion-my-key-takeaways/

China’ Run on the Treasury http://lewrockwell.com/north/north1109.html

Coke and Pepsi’s Uncivil Cola Wars-Case Study Analysis

Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons–Woody Allen

Besides understanding economies of scale, the next area you need to master is understanding the prisoner’s dilemma and how companies coexist or compete within barriers to entry.

The case readings were presented here:http://wp.me/p1PgpH-yl

Remember that if the links do not work, then the materials are in a folder in the VALUE VAULT. Simply email Aldridge56@aol.com and request a key.

CASE STUDY ANALYSIS

The case study discussion in a PDF because of financial tables. Go here: http://www.yousendit.com/download/M3BsM25ITmFsMHhESjlVag

 Pepsi and Coke’s Uncivil Wars

Chapter 9 in Competition Demystified: Uncivil Cola Wars: Coke and Pepsi Confront the Prisoner’s Dilemma

What are the sources of competitive advantages in the soda industry?

First we should look at industry structure. The cola companies buy raw materials of sugar, sweeteners and flavorings from many suppliers then they turn the commodities into a branded product which consists of syrup/concentrated combined with water and bottles. The companies are joined at the hip with their bottlers/distributors who then sell to many retail outlets.  Selling bulky and heavy beverages lends itself to regional economies of scale advantages.

The soda companies cannot operate successfully unless their bottlers and distributors are profitable and content whether company-owned or franchised.

The existence of barriers to entry indicates that the incumbents enjoy competitive advantages that potential entrants cannot match. In the soft drink world, the sources of these advantages are easy to identify. First, on the demand side, there is the kind of customer loyalty that network executives, beer brewers and car manufacturers only dream about. People who drink sodas drink them frequently (habit formation), and they relish a constancy of experience that keeps them ordering the same brand, no matter the circumstances.

Both Coke and Pepsi exhibit the presence of barriers to entry and competitive advantage—stable *ROE can be influenced by whether bottlers’ assets are off or on the balance sheet

Second, there are large economies of scale in the soda business both at the concentrate maker and bottler levels. Developing new products and advertising existing ones are fixed costs, unrelated to the number of cases sold. Equally important, the distribution of soda to the consumer benefits from regional scale economies. The more customers there are in a given region, the more economical the distribution. A bottler of Coke, selling the product to 40% to 50% of the soda drinkers in the market area, is going to have lower costs than someone peddling Dr. Pepper to 5% to 56% of the drinkers.

During the “statesmen” era of Pepsi and Coke, what actions did each of the companies take? Why did they help raise profitability?

Note the stability of market share and ROE. ROE dipped in 1980 and 1982 as Pepsi and Coke waged a price war. Yet, market shares did not change as a result of the price war—both companies were worse off. Pepsi gained market share in the late 1970s versus Coke. Coke was slow and clumsy to respond.

Price wars between two elephants in an industry with barriers to entry tend to flatten a lot of grass and make customers happy. They hardly ever result in a dead elephant. Still, there are better and worse ways of initiating a price contest. Coke chose the worst. Coke chose to lower concentrate prices on those regions where its share of the cola market was high (80%) and Pepsi’s low (20 percent). This tactic ensured that for every dollar of revenue Pepsi gave up, Coke would surrender four dollars.

Coke luckily developed New Coke which allowed it to attack Pepsi in its dominant markets in a precise way—minimizing damage to Coke’s profits–and force a truce in the price wars.

They made visible moves to signal the other side that they intended to cooperate. Coca-Cola initiated the new era with a major corporate reorganization. After buying up many of the bottlers and reorganizing the bottler network, it spun off 51% of the company owned bottlers to shareholders in a new entity, Coca-Cola Enterprises, and it loaded up on debt for this corporation. With so much debt to service, Coca-Cola Enterprises had to concentrate on the tangible requirements of cash flow rather than the chimera of gaining great hunks of market share from Pepsi. PepsiCo responded by dropping the Pepsi Challenge, toning down its aggressive advertising and thus signaling that it accepted the truce. Profit margins improved. Operating profit margins went from 10% to 20% for Coca-Cola. Pepsi gain was less dramatic but also substantial.

Both companies focused on ROE rather than market share and sales growth.

The urge to grow, to hammer competitors and drive them out of business, or at least reduce their market share by a meaningful amount, had been a continual source of poor performance for companies that do have competitive advantages and a franchise, but are not content with it.

Alice Schroeder Criticizes the Deity; Housekeeping

Alice Schroeder savages Buffett

Alice Schroeder criticizes the deity, Warren Buffett: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-19/buffett-message-is-do-as-i-say-not-as-i-do-alice-schroeder.html

I recommend Snowball, Ms. Schroeder’s book on Buffett. I also think she points out several inconsistencies in Mr. Buffett’s public pronouncements on taxes and public policy. For example, how can Mr. Buffett be aware of the pernicious ravages of inflation upon investors yet not speak out against the Fed’s bail-outs and huge increases in money aggregates? What would Mr. Buffett’s father think–a Libertarian Senator who believed in the classical gold standard? Why wouldn’t he be for tremoving the power of fiat money from the government since the dollar has lost 96% of its value since the Fed;s creation in 1913? He knows the abuses of the printing press. Though, I do not agree with all her comments in this article. Learn from Mr. Buffett’s discussions about investing and business, then disregard the rest.

Also, disagreement, criticism and discussion are what helped to establish this country.

Coke-Pepsi Case Study

The analysis of this case will be posted by late tomorrow. Last chance to think through the case questions: http://wp.me/p1PgpH-yl