Category Archives: Economics & Politics

Kaboom: The Next Bubble to Burst; Videos on Business Cycles

From a Dot-com Bubble to a housing bubble to a government bubble

This link will give you a preview of one chapter of Peter Schiff’s new book: http://lewrockwell.com/schiff/the-real-crash-excerpt1.html

Videos on Business Cycles

Rap Video of Keynes vs. Hayek: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc&feature=fvwrel

Why we have booms and busts by Peter Schiff http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdsUSQwIIik

A History of Booms and Busts http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83sX8Ent4vo&feature=related

A Lecture on Austrian Business Cycle Theory by Jorg Guido Hulsmann http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bxq_mhdYeBM&feature=related

Free College Educations from the Best Teachers

An educated person is one who has learned that information almost always turns out to be at best incomplete and very often false, misleading, fictitious, mendacious – just dead wrong. –Russell Baker

An education isn’t how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It’s being able to differentiate between what you know and what you don’t. –Anatole France

Data is not information, information is not knowledge, knowledge is not understanding, understanding is not wisdom. –Clifford Stoll

Develop a passion for learning. If you do, you will never cease to grow. –Anthony J. D’Angelo

Free University-Level Courses from Great Teachers

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/05/3-best-websites-to-get-free-college.html

1. Khan Academy

2. Coursera

3. Academic Earth

Mark Cuban on the coming revolution in education

http://blogmaverick.com/2012/05/13/the-coming-meltdown-in-college-education-why-the-economy-wont-get-better-any-time-soon/Soon

This is what I see when I think about higher education in this country today:

Remember the housing meltdown ? Tough to forget isn’t it. The formula for the housing boom and bust was simple. A lot of easy money being lent to buyers who couldn’t afford the money they were borrowing. That money was then spent on homes with the expectation that the price of the home would go up and it could easily be flipped or refinanced at a profit.  Who cares if you couldn’t afford the loan. As long as prices kept on going up, everyone was happy. And prices kept on going up. And as long as pricing kept on going up real estate agents kept on selling homes and finding money for buyers.

Until the easy money stopped.  When easy money stopped, buyers couldn’t sell. They couldn’t refinance.  First sales slowed, then prices started falling and then the housing bubble burst. Housing prices crashed. We know the rest of the story. We are still mired in the consequences.

Can someone please explain to me how what is happening in higher education is any different ?

Its far too easy to borrow money for college.  Did you know that there is more outstanding debt for student loans than there is for Auto Loans or Credit Card loans ? The point of the numbers is that getting a student loan is easy. Too easy.

As an employer I want the best prepared and qualified employees. I could care less if the source of their education was accredited by a bunch of old men and women who think they know what is best for the world. I want people who can do the job. I want the best and brightest. Not a piece of paper.

The competition from new forms of education is starting to appear. Particularly in the tech world. Online and physical classrooms are popping up everywhere. They respond to needs in the market. THey work with local businesses to tailor the education to corporate needs. In essence assuring those who excel that they will get a job. All for far far less money than traditional schools.

Update:

Let me add some clarification here based on some of the comments. I include the Online For Profit Mills that live off of the government delivering student loans as part of traditional education. Phoenix, Strayer, etc, they are not the new generation of Branded Education I am referring to. They are a big part of creating the bubble. i should have gone into more depth here. I will save it for another post.

As far as the purpose of college, I am a huge believer that you go to college to learn how to learn. However, if that goal is subverted because traditional universities, public and private, charge so much to make that happen, I believe that system will collapse and there will be better alternatives created.

Online video classrooms with lively discussions don’t need a traditional campus to teach kids how to learn. Discussion groups built around Khan Academy like classes don’t require a traditional campus to teach kids how to learn. I’ve seen better discussions and interactions on twitter than in some of the traditional classrooms I have visited. The opportunities for online interactive video classrooms is going to grow quickly and will be far more cost-effective than traditional universities. Hooray for http://academy.mises.org/ as one example.

Leave the for profit online schools that create more employment for debt collectors than their students out of the equation and we still have an enormous bubble in Higher Education that is having a horrible impact not just on the economic life of their students, but on the economy as a whole as well

The Higher Education Industry is very analogous to the Newspaper industry. By the time they realize they need to change their business model it will be too late. Higher Education’s legacy infrastructure, employee costs /structures and debt costs will keep them from being able to re calibrate to a new generation of competitors.

Saving Money

For those that want to fork over $100,000s to go to a typical university over four years, you should start saving now. This blog will help: http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/05/five-money-saving-websites.html

The Economy

http://blog.yardeni.com/

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2012/05/slow-progress-but-not-recession-and.html

The underlying problems of Greece–a Welfare State and Rigid Wages

http://cafehayek.com/2012/05/greece-malpass-and-hayek.html

http://www.mises.org/daily/6052/The-Systemic-Siesta

The Crisis of Interventionism and Government Spending

There are two articles that pertain to our current economic crisis from two outstanding writers, Henry Hazlitt and Ludwig von Mises.

I combined both of these excellent articles for easier reading in a PDF here: Govt Spending and Deficits

What Government Spending and Deficits Will do by Henry Hazlitt

http://www.thefreemanonline.org/features/what-spending-and-deficits-do/

Henry Hazlitt, noted economist, author, editor, reviewer and columnist, is well-known to readers of the New York Times, Newsweek, The Freeman, Barron’s, Human Events and many others. Best known of his books are Economics in One Lesson, The Failure of the “New Economics,” The Foundations of Morality, and What You should Know About Inflation.

The direct cause of inflation is the issuance of an excessive amount of paper money. The most frequent cause of the issuance of too much paper money is a government budget deficit.

The majority of economists have long recognized this, but the majority of politicians have studiously ignored it. One result, in this age of inflation, is that economists have tended to put too much emphasis on the evils of deficits as such and too little emphasis on the evils of excessive government spending, whether the budget is balanced or not.

So it is desirable to begin with the question, What is the effect of government spending on the economy–even if it is wholly covered by tax revenues?

The economic effect of government spending depends on what the spending is for, compared with what the private spending it displaces would be for. To the extent that the government uses its tax-raised money to provide more urgent services for the community than the taxpayers themselves otherwise would or could have provided, the government spending is beneficial to the community. To the extent that the government provides policemen and judges to prevent or mitigate force, theft, and fraud, it protects and encourages production and welfare. The same applies, up to a certain point, to what the government pays out to provide armies and armament against foreign aggression. It applies also to the provision by city governments of sidewalks, streets, and sewers, and to the provision by States of roads, parkways, and bridges.

But government expenditure even on necessary types of service may easily become excessive. Sometimes it may be difficult to measure exactly where the point of excess begins. It is to be hoped, for example, that armies and armament may never need to be used, but it does not follow that providing them is mere waste. They are a form of insurance premium; and in this world of nuclear warfare and incendiary slogans it is not easy to say how big a premium is enough. The exigencies of politicians seeking re-election, of course, may very quickly lead to unneeded roads and other public works.

von Mises on The Crisis of Government Interventionism

http://www.mises.org/daily/6030/The-Crisis-of-Interventionism

Mises in Human Action (1949) explains how repeated failures of government interventions just bring forth more cries for intervention by government propagandists.  Massive bailouts for banks and auto companies will always be justified no matter what the outcomes.

Mises, “The interventionist policies as practiced for many decades by all governments of the capitalistic West have brought about all those effects which the economists predicted. There are wars and civil wars, ruthless oppression of the masses by clusters of self-appointed dictators, economic depressions, mass unemployment, capital consumption, famines.

However, it is not these catastrophic events which have led to the crisis of interventionism. The interventionist doctrinaires and their followers explain all these undesired consequences as the unavoidable features of capitalism. As they see it, it is precisely these disasters that clearly demonstrate the necessity of intensifying interventionism. The failures of the interventionist policies do not in the least impair the popularity of the implied doctrine. They are so interpreted as to strengthen, not to lessen, the prestige of these teachings. As a vicious economic theory cannot be simply refuted by historical experience, the interventionist propagandists have been able to go on in spite of all the havoc they have spread.”  

Sound familiar? Just read Paul Krugman’s articles: http://www.mises.org/daily/6055/Charting-Fun-with-Krugman

 

Warren Buffett’s Father Tried to Teach Him about ABCT–The Panic of 1819

Facebook’s shares finally went public Friday and the first trade was entered at $42.05 a share.

ABCT stands for Austrian Business Cycle Theory.

Howard Buffett’s Letter to Murray Rothbard, Austrian Economist

See the letter here:http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2012/05/warren-buffetts-father-tried-to-teach.html

Warren Buffett’s Father Tried to Teach Warren About Austrian Business Cycle Theory

Political philosophy

Howard Buffett is remembered for his Libertarian stance, having maintained a friendship with Murray Rothbard for a number of years.[6] He “would invariably draw ‘zero’ ratings from the Americans for Democratic Action and other leftist groups.”[7]

Buffett was a vocal critic of the Truman Doctrine and the Marshall Plan.[3] Of the Truman Doctrine, he said: “Our Christian ideals cannot be exported to other lands by dollars and guns.”[8] Buffett was also “one of the major voices in Congress opposed to the Korean adventure,”[7] and “was convinced that the United States was largely responsible for the eruption of conflict in Korea; for the rest of his life he tried unsuccessfully to get the Senate Armed Services Committee to declassify the testimony of CIA head Admiral Roscoe H. Hillenkoetter, which Buffett told [Rothbard] established American responsibility for the Korean outbreak.”[9]

Speaking on the floor of Congress, he said of military interventionism that,

Even if it were desirable, America is not strong enough to police the world by military force. If that attempt is made, the blessings of liberty will be replaced by coercion and tyranny at home. Our Christian ideals cannot be exported to other lands by dollars and guns. Persuasion and example are the methods taught by the Carpenter of Nazareth, and if we believe in Christianity we should try to advance our ideals by his methods. We cannot practice might and force abroad and retain freedom at home. We cannot talk world cooperation and practice power politics.[9][10]

In the summer of 1962, he wrote “an impassioned plea… for the abolition of the draft” in the National Review.[5] Buffett wrote:

When the American government conscripts a boy to go 10,000 miles to the jungles of Asia without a declaration of war by Congress (as required by the Constitution) what freedom is safe at home? Surely, profits of U.S. Steel or your private property are not more sacred than a young man’s right to life.[5]

In addition to non-interventionism overseas, Howard Buffett strongly supported the gold standard because he believed it would limit the ability of government to inflate the money supply and spend beyond its means.[11] His son Warren Buffett is not an advocate of the gold standard.[12][13]

Letter

Lew Rockwell has posted a fascinating letter (below) from Howard Buffett, Warren’s father, to Murray Rothbard. The letter comes from the Rothbard Archives at the Mises Institute. Note the second to last paragraph where Howard Buffet writes:

Somewhere I had read that you wrote a book on the “Panic of 1819”. If this is correct, I would like to know where I can buy a copy of it. I have a son who is a particularly avid reader of books about panics and similar phenomenon. I would like to present him with the book referred to.

Here is a link to the mentioned book, The Panic of 1819,  http://mises.org/rothbard/panic1819.pdf  A facinating read.

The Panic of 1819

In 1819 a financial panic swept across the country. The growth in trade that followed the War of 1812 came to an abrupt halt. Unemployment mounted, banks failed, mortgages were foreclosed, and agricultural prices fell by half. Investment in western lands collapsed.

The panic was frightening in its scope and impact. In New York State, property values fell from $315 million in 1818 to $256 million in 1820. In Richmond, property values fell by half. In Pennsylvania, land values plunged from $150 an acre in 1815 to $35 in 1819. In Philadelphia, 1,808 individuals were committed to debtors’ prison. In Boston, the figure was 3,500.

For the first time in American history, the problem of urban poverty commanded public attention. In New York in 1819, the Society for the Prevention of Pauperism counted 8,000 paupers out of a population of 120,000. The next year, the figure climbed to 13,000. Fifty thousand people were unemployed or irregularly employed in New York, Philadelphia, and Baltimore, and one foreign observer estimated that half a million people were jobless nationwide.

Read more: http://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/database/article_display_printable.cfm?HHID=574

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (“ABCT”)

A seven minute video described http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5K4Os5eXPw4

ABCT briefly explained here:http://mises.org/daily/672

And refuted here: http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2008/01/whats_wrong_wit_6.html

Remember to always seek out ideas, thoughts and conclusions DIFFERENT from your own or the original premise that you are investigating.

Note the comment about Warren Buffett’s avid study of panics. Hint.

Enjoy your weekend

Blind Stock Valuation Contest; Listening; Of Interest

What would you pay for this stock?

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/177048/blind-stock-valuation-2-what-would-you-pay-for-this-stock

The Art of Asking Questions

http://artofmanliness.com/2012/05/15/how-to-ask-questions/

Free market healthcare

http://www.lewrockwell.com/lewrockwell-show/2012/05/08/276-free-market-medical-care/

JP Morgan and Bank Controls

http://www.mises.org/daily/6056/JPMorgan-Chase-and-Central-Banking

Robert Schiller’s Lectures on Finance and Investing

“Someone mentioned the philosopher’s stone. To the surprise of all present, Law said he had discovered it. “I can tell you my secret,” said the financier. “It is to make gold out of paper.” –John Law, Promoter of the South Sea Bubble. (Source:John Law, by H. Montgomery Hyde)

Robert Schiller’s Lectures

There are a series of approximately 26 lectures from Robert Schiller’s Economics 252 Class at Yale’s School of Management.

Take in as much as you want of academic finance from these lectures. I posted several below, but you can find the others in numbered sequence on www.youtube.com.

Human Foibles, Fraud, Manipulation, and Regulation http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEB2k9jJzzc

Professional Money Managers and Their Influence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QM-ZzuIMRg&feature=relmfu

Options Markets:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQChTusyPJA&feature=channel&list=UL

Universal Principle of risk management pooling and hedging of risk http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMkD8HKJQCM&feature=relmfu

Portfolio Diversification and Supporting Financial Institutions (CAPM Model) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efPKwxZuLKY&feature=BFa&list=ULsQChTusyPJA

Banking: Successes and Failures:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5u1xJVXurk&feature=BFa&list=ULefPKwxZuLKY

Guest Lecture by Andrew Redleaf:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMbhgSBIUfk&feature=BFa&list=ULq5u1xJVXurk


 

 

The Leverage Cycle; P/E Multiples

A 55-minute Video from a Yale Professor on the Leverage Cycle

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2012/05/geanakoplos-on-leverage-cycle.html

Solving the Crisis

http://mises.org/daily/3615

The principal problem with the current economic crisis is that the authorities are trying to solve the debt crisis by adding more debt — which is akin to trying to cure a viral infection by injecting more viruses. In case some have forgotten, the United States is undergoing a serious credit crisis, that is, a debt crisis.

All sectors of the American economy are suffering from a chronic addiction to credit, which manifests itself as the disease of excess debt. Household, business, and public debt have reached all-time highs. Consequently, it would not seem logical for the federal government to fight the debt crisis by adding trillions of dollars to the national debt and by lowering interest rates to promote even more credit.

A debt crisis can only be solved by paying down and reducing debt; it cannot be solved by compounding ever-more debt on top of an extremely over-leveraged economy.

Why bad Multiples happen to good companies

This article has an interesting section on the difficulty of using multiples to compare companies. Also, investors are skeptical of high ROIC companies that have a lot of goodwill. Interesting…

Why bad multiples happen to good companies

And Where are We Now? The Market as a Discounting Mechanism

“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”

“People are habitually guided by the rearview mirror and, for the most part, by the vistas immediately behind them.” – Warren Buffett

Legg Mason’s Letter on Current Equity Premiums and Investor’s Views on future Growth Investors current May 2012 expectations for stocks

The Market as a discounting Mechanism

In September 2011, I posted on the bad news cascading in the housing market: http://wp.me/p1PgpH-2g and I posted the link below to show the charts of various home builders’ stocks.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=xhb&time=13&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=9%2F21%2F2011&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=mdc%2Ctol&comp=mdc%2Ctol&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=

320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=

false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=12&x=42&y=24

Behold, the stocks are up about 50% to 100% now that the news is becoming positive. Note the Presentation from Doug Kass:Kass-ValueInvestingCongress-5712 –go to the last three pages to view the need for housing stock.

Home Sales Improving

http://app1.kuhf.org/articles/1337110892-Houston-Home-Sales-Up-10-From-April-2011.html

Economic Blogs

Excellent post on our current economic conditions here: http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/ and http://mjperry.blogspot.com/

Video on Volatility, Buffett Partnership Letters, Blog and Podcast Links

Buffett’s Partnership Letters

A reader alerted me that this blog has no link to Buffett’s original partnership letters. For shame, here they are:

Links to each original letter: http://www.rbcpa.com/WEB_letters/WEB_Letters_pre_berkshireTURNEDOFF.html

Newly typed Consolidated Letters for easier reading (suggested for ease of study)Complete_Buffett_partnership_letters-1957-70_in Sections

Readings and Videos in Economics

http://mises.org/Literature/

http://www.libertyclassroom.com/

Video on Boone Pickens discussing Natural Gas: http://martinkronicle.com/2012/05/02/boone-pickens-pickens-plan-natural/

Developing skills and understanding your own foibles–Trader and Stock Blogs http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/trader_development.htm  Search for topics of interest.  Often trading blogs focus on the psychological aspects of trading since traders make many more discrete decisions than long-term investors, thus trading blogs can be of use to understanding how we make decisions under pressure and uncertainty.

Recent CNBC Munger Interview http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000088395

Podcast on Steve Case’s book, The Indomitable Investor. Why people on main street do not understand how Wall Street works. His main point, “Bad investors think of ways to make money and good investors think of ways not to lose money.” http://martinkronicle.com/2012/04/02/steve-sears-indomitable-investor/

www.greenbackd.com is back posting with great articles on Greenblatt’s Magic Formula and more.

Fascinating 5 minute Video on Stock Market Volatility:

Artemis Capital Management LLC is pleased to present “Volatility at World’s End: Two Decades of Movement in Markets” a unique visualization of implied and realized stock market volatility from 1990 to 2011. The video was originally shown as part of Christopher Cole’s speech at the 2012 Global Derivatives and Risk Management Conference in Barcelona Spain on April 17th.

The movement of stock prices has been an obsession for generations of speculators and traders. On a higher level mathematicians believe that modern markets are an extension of the same fractal beauty found in nature. Visualized these stock markets may take the shape of a turbulent ocean with waves made of human hopes, dreams, greed, and fear. Merging the world of high-finance and high-art Artemis Capital Management LLC is proud to present a creative visualization of stock market volatility over the last two decades.

Volatility at World’s End: Two Decades of Movement in Markets is a depiction of real stock market volatility using trading data from 1990 to 2011. The visuals are designed from S&P 500 index option data replicating the implied volatility wave (or variance swap curve) extending to an expiration of one year. The front of the volatility wave contains the same data used to calculate the CBOE VIX index. The movement of this wave demonstrates changing trader expectations of the future stock market volatility. As the wave moves through time the expected (or implied) volatility surface transforms into a realized volatility surface derived from historical S&P 500 index movement. The transition represents what professional traders call “volatility arbitrage”. The color variation in the volatility waves show the volatility-of-volatility or internal movement of the wave. The track underneath the volatility wave represents underlying S&P 500 index prices.

Volatility at World’s End: Two Decades of Movement in Markets VIDEO (5 minutes) http://www.artemiscm.com/research/volitility-at-worlds-end-two-decades-of-movement-in-markets/

Learning from Other Investors; Buffett Recommends Gold

Learning from other Investors

I grouped several presentations from the Omaha May 6 and 7th Value Investors Conference for easier readingOmaha Value Conference Presentations May 2012.

I suggest that when you read the notes and see the name of a company–then try to download that company’s financials and value it.  Compare your analysis and valuation with the presentations below. Learn why your analysis differs from the presenter. Note Robotti’s presentation on Enerflex, Ltd. and N3’s presentation on SPN. Try your hand at valuing those companies BEFORE you read their analysis.

http://www.marketfolly.com/2012/05/notes-from-value-investing-congress.html

Also Graham and Doddesville Letter from CIMA: http://www.grahamanddoddsville.net/ or Spring 2012

James Montier’s Behavioral Investing Podcast

His talk starts at the 18:30 mark. Note his comments on fin. models and the Fed. http://cfapodcast.smartpros.com/web/live_events/Annual/Montier/index.html

Buffett on Gold

Howard Buffett on the Gold Standard