Category Archives: Special Situations

LexMark (LXK) Developing Case Study

LexMark: Value or Value Trap?

I read the news today, oh boy!

LEXINGTON, Ky., July 12, 2012, Today LexMark announced that second quarter 2012 financial results will be lower than expected.  (Editor: Read analysts need to cover their asses!)

Based on a preliminary analysis of second quarter financial results, the company currently expects second quarter revenue to decline about 12 percent year over year. (Holy #$^&!). This compares to the guidance that the company previously provided in April for the second quarter of an expected revenue decline between 7 to 9 percent year over year. (Editor: Analysts are saying, “What the $%^&! …why didn’t the company tell me?) GAAP earnings per share are now expected to be in the range of $0.53 to $0.55, or $0.87 to $0.89, excluding approximately $0.34 for restructuring-related and acquisition-related adjustments. This compares to the GAAP earnings per share guidance that the company previously provided for the second quarter of $0.65 to $0.75, or $0.95 to $1.05, excluding approximately $0.30 per share for restructuring-related and acquisition-related adjustments.This revised second quarter outlook reflects a weaker than expected demand environment, particularly in Europe (Editor: Who Knew?! What a surprise), and a larger than expected impact from unfavorable changes in currency exchange rates. The weaker demand environment prevented the company from overcoming this currency shift.Looking ahead, the company expects these same factors to impact the second half of 2012 and will provide an update on its full year 2012 outlook on the company’s upcoming earnings conference call scheduled for Tuesday, July 24, 2012.

No conference call will be held in conjunction with this revised financial outlook and the company will have no further comment on this until its upcoming second quarter earnings release.

Analyst Downgrades………..will be announced. (Editor: The horse has left the barn).

5 PM update:

(LXK -16.3%) closes at multi-year lows thanks to an ugly Q2 warning. Goldman (Sell) is taking a hammer to its 2013 and 2014 estimates, declaring the headwinds to Lexmark’s high-margin printing supplies business to be worse than feared. Though no full-year guidance revision was provided, Brean Murray thinks 2012 EPS could be around $4, compared with prior guidance of $4.70-$4.90 – that still gives Lexmark a forward P/E of just 5. HPQ -1.9%. XRX -1.8%.

Upcoming Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call Information

The company will be hosting a conference call with securities analysts on Tuesday, July 24, 2012 at 8:30 a.m. (EDT). A live broadcast and a complete replay of this call can be accessed from Lexmark’s investor relations website at http://investor.lexmark.com .

This Post is to establish a basis for a case study in the future

This post is NOT a recommendation to do what I do (buy LXK today at $20.71) because you may be doing this:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=go9uekKOcKM.

and here is why I might have a reason to buy: LXK_VL_July 6 12.

In a year or so I can refer back to this dated post. I want to be on record to improve the learning experience and build the case study. Next will the upcoming earnings report in late July. The history, valuation, financial strength, declining business can be discussed later, but for now, this is an attempt to take advantage of Mr. Market. Not everything works out, but we make our way.

Remember to be careful when fools rush in………….Better, perhaps, to follow them to the heart of the American Dream:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_9tZ3aPCFo&feature=relmfu

Have a Great Weekend!

Leaps-Perhaps Time to Pull Out Another Tool from Your Arsenal.

Time to Consider LEAPS

Low interest rates and low volatility mean LEAPs MAY be a cheap, non-recourse loan for owning a growing business or a way to lower your over-all exposure without giving up returns.

Rising interest rates and volatility (all else being equal) will raise the price of your leap. If you believe a company will grow its intrinsic value 10% to 15% in the next 18 months to two years then leaps may be an attractive tool. Option traders’ models do not do as well as the cone of uncertainty increases (the time period until expiration is beyond a year).

A refresher on options:Options_Guide but the Bible on options is Options As a Strategic Investment by Lawrence G. McMillan. See Chapter 25, Leaps.

Lecture by a Great Value Investor on using Leaps:  Lecture-8-on-LEAPS         A MUST READ.

Application of Leaps

This blog discusses using Leaps for Cisco during 2011. http://www.valuewalk.com/2011/07/cisco-leaps-opportunity-lifetime/

I am not recommending that you agree, but follow the logic.

If you are new to investing then stay away, but for some, NOW may be a time to use this tool with the right company at the right price.

Good luck and be careful not to over-use options. Options, when you are successful, can become as addictive as crack–who doesn’t like making 10 times your money?

Learn About Short Selling–Learning Resources

We can all become better investors if we become better sellers and, especially, if we avoid bad businesses, we can reduce our mistakes. Studying short selling will improve your analytical abilities and help you be a more flexible investor.

Forensic accounting can a fun—like solving a puzzle and it provides a moral framework in which to look at public disclosures.

Video of a Short Seller’s Lecture to Accounting Professors

Kathryn Staley at the 2007 CARE Conference (video)
A lecture from the author of “The Art of Short Selling” given in 2007 at Notre Dame.

You want to learn how to sell even if you don’t want to be a short seller.

Staley’s book on short selling: http://www.amazon.com/When-Stocks-Crash-Nicely-Selling/dp/0887304974/ref=lh_ni_t

Short Selling Research Reports from Offwallstreet http://www.offwallstreet.com/research.html   There are examples of good forensic accounting research here where you can also download the financials of the company mentioned so you can understand the analyst’s research. Try downloading a company’s financial report to find the problems BEFORE you read the corresponding research report. Create your own case studies! Hard work, but you will learn to improve your skills.

Blog on Chinese Stock Frauds:http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/

http://brontecapital.blogspot.ca/   (China’s Kleptrocracy)

www.fool.com on shorting stocks: http://www.fool.com/FoolFAQ/FoolFAQ0033.htm

White Collar Fraud: http://whitecollarfraud.blogspot.com/2009/12/overstockcom-and-patrick-byrne-have.html

Recommended reading

Reuters – Special Report: From Hannibal Lecter to Bernie Madoff by Matthew Goldstein

Dag Blog – “Crazy Eddie” Fraudster Sam Antar To Return To Crime – Thanks to Darrell Issa & Anti-Regulation Republicans by William K. Wolfrum

Gary Weiss – Novastar and Overstock in the News

Crowe Horwath – Putting the Freud in Fraud: Focus on the Human Element, Catching a Crook Isn’t Only a Numbers Game By Jonathan T. Marks, CPA/CFF, CFE, CITP

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-feds-are-drinking-the-same-kool-aid-as-crazy-eddies-former-auditors-2011-5#ixzz1xg7WWMt0

Books

Howard Schilit’s Financial Shenanigans: http://www.amazon.com/Financial-Shenanigans-Accounting-Gimmicks-Reports/dp/0071386262/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1339591819&sr=1-1

Thorton O’Glove’s Quality of Earnings (Joel Greenblatt uses this in his Special Situations class) http://www.amazon.com/Quality-Earnings-Thornton-L-Oglove/dp/0684863758/ref=pd_sim_b_4

Forensic Accounting Book: http://www.amazon.com/The-Financial-Numbers-Game-Accounting/dp/0471770736/ref=pd_sim_b_9

Earnings Magic: http://www.amazon.com/Earnings-Magic-Unbalance-Sheet-Financial/dp/0471768553/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1339592203&sr=8-1

A plug for Earnings Magic: I try to read various books on the subject of manipulating or managing earnings to enhance my analytical abilities. Because the GAAP rules give executives certain freedoms, it is valuable to know the true story behind these numbers. I like how this book educates readers on where to look to find clues for earnings management. For me, the chapter on pensions and other postemployment benefits was beneficial. During the current economic crisis, many companies struggle with their defined benefit plans, and this chapter educates readers better how to read through financial notes to gain better understanding of the pension status. – Mariusz Skonieczny, author of Why Are We So Clueless about the Stock Market? Learn how to invest your money, how to pick stocks, and how to make money in the stock market

 Research on Short Sellers

Overall, our evidence suggests that the information short sellers exploit mainly concerns the market’s misperception of these firms’ fundamentals. Research_Shorts Signal Misperception

Chicken Liquidation CAGLE’S INC -CL A(CAGAQ) /Good Reading

This company has just received a bid post-petition (bankruptcy) and the equity shareholders look to receive $3.70 to over $4.00.  The risk is in how many weeks until you receive money for your shares in cash. This is only appropriate for small investors since liquidity is limited. You might be able to make some coin on a small investment but please do your own work.  Remember the chickens could fly away.

Practice reading court documents

Click through the links in this paper: Chicken Bankruptcy. Note how the price moved up before the announcement because of investors considering the odds of a higher bid being offered.

To learn you should read the court document (second link) in the paper and read the balance sheet, then see if you agree with the analysis.   Note the importance of incentives (who owns the majority of the equity). Always be sure that you are in alignment with the owners or people with a stake in the outcome of the auction.   The auction price has already been announced so the risk is in time to completion.

For making you read about chickens I will be awarding this prize:

Value Insight and you should read:TAVF_2Q_2012 Letter

Bernanke Under Duress

Sources have confirmed that President Obama’s Secret Service Specialists are torturing Bernanke until he agrees to crank up QE_More. Gruesome scene:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSe38dzJYkY

If Hitler ran for office in England

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzRbC7lQ-EQ&feature=related

SPECIAL SITUATION Odd Lot Tender Offer

Tender Less than 99 shares of JAKK for $20.00 in cash. Take 20 minutes to review.

A reader kindly gave me a heads up on this odd lot tender offer from Jakks (JAKK), a retailer that wants to reduce the number of odd lot shareholders so as to lessen filing costs with the SEC.

UPDATE: REMEMBER to submit for tender by instructing your broker by June 25th, but better to alert yourself on June 24th to see where the price is trading (if above $20 then sell or hold your shares rather than submit your shares)

If you purchase 99 shares and tender them on or before the expiration date, then you will receive $20.00 per share. That works out to about a $150 profit on 99 shares. I view this simply (after reading the odd lot tender offer which takes 20 minutes) as more than a 90% probability of completion with a 10% chance of a $5 or $6 worse case share loss. 90% on $1.50 or $1.60 based on ($18.40 share price today) minus a 10% chance of -$6.00 = $0.75 EXPECTED pay-off per share on expending 99 shares times $18.40 to be paid within 3 months or a 4% EXPECTED return then annualized at 16% or (12 months/3 months waiting period) x EXPECTED return 4%).  16% beats my threshold 15% hurdle rate. Obviously, if the deal goes through then my return is a 32% annualized. I will take that risk. But I am not recommending that YOU take it. Do your own thinking.

This deal is only appropriate for small investors who value their time at about $200 per hour.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1009829/000114420412031879/v314465_ex-a1a.htm

JAKKS Pacific, Inc.

Offer to Purchase for Cash

up to 4,000,000 Shares of its Common Stock

(including Series A Junior Participating Preferred Stock Rights)

at a Purchase Price of $20.00 Per Share

THE OFFER, PRORATION PERIOD AND WITHDRAWAL RIGHTS WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT, NEW YORK CITY TIME, ON JUNE 27, 2012, UNLESS THE OFFER IS EXTENDED OR WITHDRAWN (SUCH DATE, AS IT MAY BE EXTENDED, THE “EXPIRATION DATE”).

JAKKS Pacific, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“JAKKS,” “we” or “us”), is offering to purchase for cash up to 4,000,000 shares of its common stock, par value $0.001 per share (the “Shares”), together with the associated rights (the “Rights”) to purchase Series A Junior Participating Preferred Stock of JAKKS, par value $0.001 per share (“Series A Preferred Stock”), issued pursuant to the Rights Agreement, dated as of March 5, 2012, between JAKKS and Computershare Trust Company, N.A., as Rights Agent (the “Rights Agreement”), at a price of $20.00 per Share, net to the seller, in cash, without interest, but subject to applicable withholding taxes (the “Purchase Price”), upon the terms and subject to the conditions described in this Offer to Purchase and in the Letter of Transmittal (which together, as they may be amended or supplemented from time to time, constitute the “Offer”).

Only Shares properly tendered in the Offer, and not properly withdrawn, will be purchased, upon the terms and subject to the conditions of the Offer. However, because of the “odd lot” priority, proration and conditional tender provisions described in this Offer to Purchase, all of the Shares tendered may not be purchased if more than the number of Shares we seek are properly tendered and not properly withdrawn. Shares tendered but not purchased pursuant to the Offer, including Shares not purchased because of proration, will be returned promptly following the Expiration Date. See, “Section 3 — Procedures for Tendering Shares” and “Section 4 — Withdrawal Rights”.

The Offer is not conditioned upon any minimum number of Shares being tendered. The Offer is, however, subject to certain terms and conditions. See, “Section 7 — Conditions to the Offer”.

The Shares are listed and traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market (“NASDAQ”) under the symbol “JAKK.” On May 24, 2012, the last full trading day prior to the announcement of the Offer, the reported closing price of the Shares on NASDAQ was $17.95 per Share. You are urged to obtain current market quotations for the Shares before deciding whether to tender your Shares pursuant to the Offer. See, “Section 8 — Price Range of Shares; Dividends; Rights Agreement”.

What happens if more than 4,000,000 Shares are tendered in the Offer?

We will purchase properly tendered Shares in the following order of priority:
First, we will purchase from all holders of “odd lots” of less than 100 Shares who properly tender all of their Shares and do not properly withdraw them prior to the Expiration Date;

So, how should one proceed?

1) Buy 99 shares (or fewer based on your cash availability) of JAKK. The share price was about $18 at the time of writing this post.

2) Tender all the purchased shares. Call your broker to find out how to do this and any charges associated with it. My broker InteractiveBrokers does not charge me anything for it.

3) Wait for the end of the tender (June 27, 2012) and then cash should be deposited into your account a week after that.

What also makes this interesting is Oaktree Capital Group LLC (NYSE:OAK) had offered to buy out the entire company at $20 per share (that was declined by the management). Another point,

JAKKS Market Cap is $450 million (25million shares * 18). Net Cash on balance sheet $162 million or $6.5 per share or about 33% of the market cap.

See more at: http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/05/jakk-tender-chance-for-investors-to-make-nice-profit/

7. Conditions to the Offer.

Notwithstanding any other provision of the Offer, we will not be required to accept for payment, purchase or pay for any Shares tendered, and may terminate or amend the Offer or may postpone the acceptance for payment of, or the purchase of and the payment for, Shares tendered, subject to the Exchange Act, if at any time on or after the commencement of the Offer and before the Expiration Date any of the following events has occurred:

there shall have been instituted,   or there shall be pending, or we shall have received notice of, any action,   suit, proceeding, arbitration or application by any government or   governmental, regulatory or administrative agency, authority or tribunal or   by any other person, domestic, foreign or supranational, before any court,   authority, agency, other tribunal or arbitrator that directly or indirectly   (1) challenges or seeks to challenge, restrain, prohibit, delay or otherwise   affect the making of the Offer, the acquisition by us of some or all of the   Shares pursuant to the Offer or otherwise relates in any manner to the Offer   or seeks to obtain material damages in respect of the Offer or (2) seeks to   make the purchase of, or payment for, some or all of the Shares pursuant to   the Offer illegal or may result in a delay in our ability to accept for   payment or pay for some or all of the Shares;
our acceptance for payment,   purchase or payment for any Shares tendered in the Offer shall violate or   conflict with, or otherwise be contrary to, any applicable law, statute,   rule, regulation, decree or order;
any action shall have been taken   or any statute, rule, regulation, judgment, decree, injunction or order   (preliminary, permanent or otherwise) shall have been proposed, sought,   enacted, entered, promulgated, enforced or deemed to be applicable to the Offer   or us or any of our subsidiaries by any court, government or governmental   agency or other regulatory or administrative authority or body, domestic or   foreign, which (1) indicates that any approval or other action of any such   court, agency or authority may be required in connection with the Offer or   the purchase of Shares thereunder or (2) is reasonably likely to make the   purchase of, or payment for, some or all of the Shares pursuant to the Offer   illegal or to prohibit, restrict or delay consummation of the Offer;
a general suspension of trading   in, or limitation on prices for, securities on any United States national   securities exchange or in the over-the-counter market, declaration of a   banking moratorium or any suspension of payments in respect of banks in the   United States, whether or not mandatory, or any limitation, whether or not   mandatory, by any governmental, regulatory or administrative agency or   authority on, or any event that is likely, in our reasonable judgment, to   materially adversely affect, the extension of credit by banks or other   lending institutions in the United States;
any change in general political,   market, economic, financial or industry conditions in the United States or   internationally that, in our reasonable judgment, has, or could reasonably be   expected to have, a material adverse effect on the business, properties,   assets, liabilities, capitalization, stockholders’ equity, condition   (financial or otherwise), licenses, operations, results of operations or   prospects of JAKKS and its subsidiaries, taken as a whole, on the value of or   trading in the Shares, on our ability to consummate the Offer or on the   benefits of the Offer to us;
the commencement or escalation of   war, armed hostilities or other international or national calamity,   including, but not limited to, an act of terrorism, directly or indirectly   involving the United States;

13


a material acceleration or   worsening of events described in the preceding four conditions existing at   the time of the commencement of the Offer;
a tender or exchange offer for any   or all of our outstanding Shares other than the Offer, or any merger,   amalgamation, acquisition, business combination, scheme of arrangement or   other similar transaction with or involving us or any of our subsidiaries,   shall have been proposed, announced or made by any person or entity or shall   have been publicly disclosed or we shall have entered into a definitive   agreement or an agreement in principle with any person with respect to a   merger, amalgamation, acquisition, business combination, scheme of   arrangement or other similar transaction;
any approval, permit,   authorization, favorable review or consent or waiver of or filing with any   domestic or foreign governmental entity or other authority or any third party   consent or notice, required to be obtained or made in connection with the   Offer shall not have been obtained or made on terms and conditions   satisfactory to us in our reasonable judgment;
the consummation of the Offer and   the purchase of the Shares pursuant to the Offer is likely, in our reasonable   judgment, to cause the Shares to be (1) held of record by fewer than 300   persons, (2) delisted from NASDAQ or (3) eligible for deregistration under   the Exchange Act.

Back with Buffett Case Studies: Dempster Mills and Sanborn Map

“We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act, but a habit.”–Aristotle

My Black Ops Ninja team was able to crack Buffett’s safe in Omaha and bring back these case studies for your enlightenment and study. Mr. Buffett was found passed out on his desk from a Cherry Coke drinking binge.  This video was running on his TV: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0PrTkE5jG4&feature=related  Mr. Buffett is preparing for this weekend’s Buffett Lovefest.

Buffett’s Case Studies:

Dempster Mills

& Sanborn Map

Dempster_Mills_Manufacturing_Case_Study_BPLs What lessons are there here for us to build upon?
 Sanborn_Map_Case_Study_BPLs

Case Study: Stub Stocks or Sum of the Parts Analysis of Loews (L)

If you go to work tomorrow wearing a green shirt and say, “I’m going to win a million dollars today because everyone knows when you wear a green shirt on Tuesdays, you win a million dollars,” your colleagues will grab a giant butterfly net. You’re predicting an outcome that 1.) has no historical precedent and 2.) lacks any rooting in reality. You see that clearly.

Yet every time I (Ken Fisher) talk about history’s role as a powerful tool in capital markets forecasting, inevitably some say, “Past performance is no indication of the future!” Well, that is not why you should look at history. Use history as a laboratory–to understand the range of reasonable expectations. For example, when event X happens, the outcomes are usually B,C or D, but can be anywhere from A to F.  So I know that anything could happen, but odds are greater something like A through F happens, with odds still higher on B, C, and D. And the odds of something outside that range happening is very, very low, so it would take exceptional extra knowledge to bet on something like that happening.  (Source Markets Never Forget, But People Do, Fisher)

Case Study in Valuing a Stub–Loews, Corp (L)

These opportunities can offer (mostly) non correlated returns to the general market. Calculating the price of a stub is relatively straight-forward with publicly traded subsidiaries. These are typically non-franchise companies. Our goal in this case is to find the value of the stub (residual value) versus the market price of the conglomerate and its various subsidiaries. Is there opportunity here? What else would you need to consider?  In a day or two I will post the analysis. To help you, I have posted several readings below this case.

Link to Loews Annual Report and 10-K (2011): http://ir.loews.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=102789&p=irol-index

Readings on Sum of the Parts Analysis and Stub Stocks

Sum of the Parts Conglomerates

Pratte on Liquidation and Creation of Stub Stocks

Stubs Maurece Schiller 1966  Prof. Greenblatt referenced and suggested this book as an example of how long special situation opportunities have existed. Interesting historical examples. Chapter on Stubs.

Leveraged Recaps and Exchange Offers_NYU

Case Study Update on SNPK: How the Scam Works and Who is Behind the Promotion

In the last post on SNPK (SunPeak Ventures) http://wp.me/p1PgpH-z5 we discussed toxic convertibles (“Death Spiral Converts”). Since then, the price has doubled as the email blasts and press releases pour forth, “MASSIVE upmove, ROCKET price rise, TO THE MOON, Next Price targe, $5!” I am missing out on  SPECTACULAR gains!!!  When I went to do my typical company visit, all I found was a P.O. Box on Long Island.

For a more detailed analysis of how the scam works: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=73392869#

In a nutshell, various promoters receive “free” stock and then sell on the price rise as the fools rush in.

SNPK was set up from day one to put shares that cost next-to-nothing into the hands of undisclosed insiders using Panamanian based business entities with hired officers as a front so that these insiders could dump their shares during a paid promotion and make out with millions of dollars in profits.
These Panamanian based business entities have extremely strong links to Eric Van Nguyen’s promotional companies leaving this poster very confident that Eric Van Nguyen and others close to him may really control the shares being held in the name of the anonymous Panamanian based entities.

Awesomepennystocks only wants you to buy SNPK shares so  those Panamanian based entities can sell their shares.  The company started spewing press releases at the same time as the paid promotion started. The company is involved in helping with the insider enrichment scheme.  SNPK sold those shares for pennies to those Panamanian based entities then forward split those shares 45:1 to increase the profits made from the selling of those shares.

The plan is to haul in profits while illegally manipulating the stock through promotional spam and wash trading, eventually leaving a bunch of gullible impressionable bag holders in their wake.  The recently confirmed involvement of the regulators asking questions is probably going to hurt APS’s plans to enact their insider enrichment scheme.  Awesomepennystocks is trying to put a positive spin on things and keep investors from selling their stock before the Panamanian based entities can finish unloading theirs. See below:

Habana Investments got 350,000 shares for $1,750 ($.005/share) which after the forward split became 15,750,000 shares ($.00011/share)

CHP Investments got 350,000 shares for $1,750 ($.005/share) which after the forward split became 15,750,000 shares ($.00011/share)

Verna Thompson got 350,000 shares for $1,750 ($.005/share) which after the forward split became 15,750,000 shares ($.00011/share)
When the original SNPK shell was first set up 8 entities were given 350,000 shares of SNPK for $1,750.

What will happen?

How can this happen? Who will stop this? The price promotion/scam stops when there are no more fools left to sell to then the price will collapse “mysteriously.”

Will the SEC or Attorney General step in to “save” investors from themselves? No, the government is too busy preparing to fence-in its citizens from escaping. Go here:http://www.truthistreason.net/senate-bill-1813-owe-taxes-your-passport-and-travel-is-denied  What is next?  If you owe a parking ticket, then without due process, your passport–after you are stripped searched–will be revoked. If only we had a constitution that was respected. The Sheeple won’t act.

I will continue to report on the on-going saga of SNPK. Who needs entertainment while this unfolds. Like a horror film; you don’t know the precise ending–just that the scene will end badly.

Case Study #4 of a Clear Investment Thesis: Cash Bargain

It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.  –Charles Munger.

This is an example of a cash bargain–no discussion of growth or competitive advantage. You are playing a statistical game of reversion to the mean–how many puffs of the cigar will you get? Time is not on your side so you should size the position if you decide to invest. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzcWwmwChVE

Case Study here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/75684107/Case-Study-4-Clear-Investment-Thesis-Winmill-cash-Bargain

 

The Explanatory Power of Insider Buying

Don’t forget to FOLLOW the MONEY.  What are insiders doing?  The video of Mark Hulbert on insider buying is interesting for two reasons:

Insider buying has more explanatory power on long-term (greater than one year) stock returns according to Professor Nejat Seyhun.   Also, note that when insiders do NOT sell when prices fall that is a bullish sign. Insiders seem bullish.

Video on Insider Buying

http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/gauging-insider-actions-as-trading-trigger-2011-12-06/A8DB6956-E0A4-462E-AFD4-CB3B74106EEC?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts#!A8DB6956-E0A4-462E-AFD4-CB3B74106EEC

Bullish Insiders Point to One-Year Stock Gains Dec. 6, 2011
Market insiders (such as executives) and their activities may have greatest sway as an indicator at the one-year horizon, not the three-month or six-month time span, according to Mark Hulbert. Laura Mandaro reports.

Resources for Studying Insider Buying

A resource for tracking insiders and learning more:

http://www.insider-monitor.com/resource.html

http://insidertrading.org/

http://www.insidertrade.net/

Academic Research on insider buying. You can do a search yourself.

http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/79151/1/j.1755-053X.2010.01074.x.pdf

http://69.175.2.130/~finman/Orlando/Papers/AggregateInsiderTrading.pdf

Keep learning/studying and having fun.