Category Archives: Uncategorized

Ten Ways to Lose Money in Wall Street (1930)

Ten Ways to Lose Money in Wall Street by the Market Cynic (1930)[1]

After many hours of toil and deep thought I have compiled a dependable guide for stock traders: Ten Ways to Lose Money in Wall Street. I shall not attempt to explain or qualify these precepts, realizing that my readers will doubtless follow them regardless of any advice, from any source, to the contrary.

  1.  Put your trust in board-room gossip.
  2. Believe everything you hear, especially tips.
  3. If you don’t know—guess.
  4. Follow the public.
  5. Be impatient.
  6. Greedily hang on for the top eighth.
  7. Trade on thin margins.
  8. Hold to your own opinion, right or wrong.
  9. Never stay out of the market.
  10. Accept small profits and large losses.

**Your Editor will add:

  • Never read the proxy before and after investing.
  • Never look carefully at the financial and financial footnotes before investing.
  • Never look at the terms and conditions of debt if the company has debt outstanding.

[1] Tape Reading and Market Tactics: Three Steps to Successful Stock Trading by Humphrey B. Neill (1931)

The Best Blog for Behavioral Investing and Improving Your Thinking

The best blog for improving your thinking: www.simoleonsense.com.  You will learn about your own psychology and how you think—essential knowledge for becoming a better investor.  The material on this blog has excellent links.

New York Times Article on the Khan Academy

As previously mentioned, the Khan Academy is a great learning resources for you and for kids. Brush up on statistics, for example.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/05/technology/khan-academy-blends-its-youtube-approach-with-classrooms.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=khan%20academy&st=cse

Referred to here:http://csinvesting.org/placing-ev-and-ebitda-into-perspective-case-studies/

A Protest at the Federal Reserve

http://www.newschannel5.com/story/16181894/protestors-disgruntled-with-federal-reserve-bank. Expect many more of these protests as our currency debasement continues.

Attack on the Austrian View of the Great Depression

I like to read theories, thoughts, or facts contrary to what I think is correct. You test your thinking and, God forbid, you could be wrong. The Great Depression will help you understand the biggest business cycle and depression of the past two centuries. Read: mises.org/rothbard/agd.pdf (Copy and paste into your browser.)

An article on the Austrian view of the Great Depression and the criticism of that view: http://mises.org/daily/5826/Defending-the-Austrian-Explanation-of-the-Great-Depression-from-an-Internet-Attack

Planning Curriculum

I will start this week planning the curriculum to study strategic logic while developing the building blocks for valuation, then tying the two together.

Test Question: Best Investment over the Past 10 years–Better than Gold, Berkshire, Bonds?

Hint: What are some of the conditions necessary for a great investment?

Hint #2: You are aware of this investment (not obscure).  Most of you will be see this investment if you live in any large town.

Hint:#3: Think with Strategic Logic.

The winner gets a date with Lindsay Lohan.

Answer to be posted tomorrow.

The Fed and Europe

Update on Value Vault

The gnomes are working overtime to upload the 17 videos and other materials. About 2/3rds completed.

Fed Joins Other Central Banks in Monetary Easing  December 01, 2011

“The Federal Reserve and other major central banks moved on Wednesday to help foreign banks more easily borrow and lend money, seeking to forestall a breakdown of global financial markets and giving Europe more time to wrestle with its debts. The latest round of interventions by central banks, including the expansion of an existing Fed program that lets foreign banks borrow dollars at a low interest rate, reflects growing concerns that Europe’s financial problems are hampering growth.” (New York Times)

In light of the Fed’s record, this should fill us all with confidence.

FEE Timely Classic  “‘F’ as in Fed” by Sheldon Richman (www.fee.org) is a recommended blog to learn about economics.

We have a report card on the entire Fed era that strongly supports the view that we’d be better off without it. At the very least, as the authors suggest, the burden of proof is squarely on those who would retain the central bank.

The report card comes in the form of a working paper from the Cato Institute: “Has the Fed Been a Failure?” by George A. Selgin, William D. Lastrapes, and Lawrence H. White.

The authors state in their abstract:

As the one-hundredth anniversary of the 1913 Federal Reserve Act approaches, we assess whether the nation’s experiment with the Federal Reserve has been a success or a failure. Drawing on a wide range of recent empirical research, we find the following: (1) The Fed’s full history (1914 to present) has been characterized by more rather than fewer symptoms of monetary and macroeconomic instability than the decades leading to the Fed’s establishment. (2) While the Fed’s performance has undoubtedly improved since World War II, even its postwar performance has not clearly surpassed that of its undoubtedly flawed predecessor, the National Banking system, before World War I. (3) Some proposed alternative arrangements might plausibly do better than the Fed as presently constituted. We conclude that the need for a systematic exploration of alternatives to the established monetary system is as pressing today as it was a century ago.

The dollar has lost 95 percent of its value since the Fed came into existence.

More on how debasement destroys economies:

http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/government%E2%80%99s-diminishing-benefits-from-inflation/

If Germany and France push the ECB to ease and buy (without sterilization) EZ government securities, markets in Europe will be very strong. If announcements along these lines do not occur, the Euro is history.

For those interested in European Stock Markets: http://www.scribd.com/doc/74371203/European-Stock-Market-Valuation

Improve Your Search Skills; Become a Google Master

Improve your search skills by drilling down: http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2011/11/tips-and-tricks-to-become-google-master.html

 

 

Strategic Logic Question

QUIZ

Let’s test our business IQ.

A restaurant owner who owns a building in New York City where he serves some of the best Spanish food (Tapas, Paella) seeks your advice. He nets about $30,000 a month. This is, apparently, an excellent income for a small individual owner.  He wants to expand to another location. Should he and how would you advise him?

Please, no more than a sentence or two.  How would you need to look at his restaurant business?

Correct answers are required to receive any more value videos (just kidding; power goes to my head.)

Value Investing Newsletters

Value Investing Newsletters

An excerpt from the Fall 2011 issue:

This issue features a trio of legendary value investors, who honored us with their time and sage advice. One thing became crystal clear: there is no single “right” way to practice value investing. Each successful value investor adapts the practice to his or her own style, although Graham & Dodd and their famous disciples remain an inspiration to so many of us.

We start off this issue with Lee Cooperman ’67, founder, Chairman and CEO of Omega Advisors, Inc. Mr. Cooperman reflects on the path of his incredibly successful career, describes how his firm constructs its portfolio, and outlines the theses behind a few of his top investment ideas.

We also had the privilege of speaking with Gabelli Asset Management (GAMCO Investors) founder, Chairman and CEO Mario Gabelli, well-known value investor and alum of Columbia Business School‘s class of 1967. Mr. Gabelli provides his approach to security analysis and discusses his interest in BEAM, National Fuel Gas and The Madison Square Garden Company.

Our third interview is with veteran value investor Marty Whitman, Third Avenue Management’s Chairman and Portfolio Manager, and an Adjunct Professor of Distress Value Investing at Columbia Business School. Mr. Whitman shares his thoughts on some compelling areas of investment opportunity, discusses his approach to company valuation and describes some of his firm‘s most successful investments.

http://heilbrunncenter.org/sites/all/modules/civicrm/extern/url.php?u=500&qid=149367

For past issues and a good blog: http://www.grahamanddoddsville.net/

Video Lecture

The Birth of the Federal Reserve by Murray Rothbard–a devastating indictment of the Fed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Ta7q1amDAN4

Value Vault Videos Available

A link to the value vault (A folder containing several videos of great investor lectures like Michael Price, etc.) was sent to readers who previously requested video links.

If you did not receive this link or would like to have access to the folder just email me at aldridge56@aol.com   with the title VALUE VAULT.

You will not have to pay the $80,000 a year for an MBA program; instead view these lectures in the comfort of your home.

Please send comments or suggestions.

Why We Get Fat

A bit off topic, but health and diet is like investing; there are many misconceptions.  Hell is not knowing the truth when you think you know.

Think about how and why so many Americans are fat (been to a US airport lately?).

This man can critically analyze information. http://garytaubes.com/

Gary Taubes Lecture:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTUspjZG-wc

What he says works!

Valuation Case Study-American Dental Partners, Inc. (ADPI)

Here is a chance to test your valuation skills.   Remember there are two ways that are theoretically sound:

  1. Discounting ALL future cash flows back to their present value using an appropriate discount rate for risk (“DCF”). A DCF may be a theoretically correct method to value a company but extremely difficult in practice.  A slight change in assumptions and your method becomes similar to using the Hubbell Telescope, you are looking at a different galaxy. Small changes in discount rates and/or cash flows change your valuation drastically.
  2. A second method is what would the business trade for in a CASH transaction between two equally informed buyer and seller. Here you have a real transaction to anchor your valuation.

Do NOT look at the price of ADPI. Go to the documents and based on the financials try to figure out what you would pay for the entire business. Support your assumptions.

I will post the answer in a few days.

For an overview of ADPI go to the Value-Line here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/71933981/ADPI-Sept-2011

View the ADPI 2010 annual report here: http://www.annualreports.com/Company/2610

If you are lost, then you can view past research reports on the company here at www.valueinvestorsclub.com. You will have to become a member but it is free. Once you login, type in ADPI in the search box for companies and two research reports will pop up. The Value Investors’ Club (“VIC”) is highly recommended as a learning tool.

Good luck! Test your skills.

ADPI_Research_Notes_Recap_-_John_Chew