Blind Stock Valuation Contest; Listening; Of Interest

What would you pay for this stock?

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/177048/blind-stock-valuation-2-what-would-you-pay-for-this-stock

The Art of Asking Questions

http://artofmanliness.com/2012/05/15/how-to-ask-questions/

Free market healthcare

http://www.lewrockwell.com/lewrockwell-show/2012/05/08/276-free-market-medical-care/

JP Morgan and Bank Controls

http://www.mises.org/daily/6056/JPMorgan-Chase-and-Central-Banking

SNPK: A Company Visit Goes Horribly Wrong

The “night singer of shares” sold stock on the streets during the South Sea Bubble. Amsterdam, 1720.

I had told readers in previous posts about the pump and dump stock, SNPK (“Sunpeaks Ventures, Inc.) that eighteen months would pass before the stock hit the sub $0.01 level.

But when I saw this:

I was WRONG. SNPK may disappear altogether in a matter of weeks, so to complete this case study, I would visit company headquarters and find out the truth.

My visit to Sunpeak’s HQ: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AzzUjgPHOY.

What I saw gave me a shocked face: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srw3RdiIlrQ. Police cars and yellow crime-scene tape prevented further investigation. This brings the case to a close. Even a 96% drop from the high price of $2.00 a month ago is meaningless. This is an eventual, inevitable $0.00.

Video of a Victim of a Pump and Dump Scheme

2-minute video http://www.fraudcast.ca/docs/Pump_And_Dump_Fraud.php

Refresher Course on Stock Fraud

For those who wish to learn more about this seamy part of the securities market then you can read here:

Microcap stock fraud is a form of securities fraud involving stocks of “microcap” companies, generally defined in the United States as those with a market capitalization of under $250 million. Its prevalence has been estimated to run into the billions of dollars a year. Many microcap stocks are penny stocks, which trade at below $1 a share.

Microcap stock fraud generally takes place among stocks traded on the OTC Bulletin Board and the Pink Sheets Electronic Quotation Service, stocks which usually do not meet the requirements to be listed on the stock exchanges. Some fraud occurs among stocks traded on the NASDAQ Small Cap Market, now called the NASDAQ Capital Market.[4]

Microcap fraud encompasses several types of investor fraud:

  • Pump and dump schemes, involving use of false or misleading statements to hype stocks, which are “dumped” on the public at inflated prices. Such schemes involve telemarketing and Internet fraud.[5]
  • Chop stocks, which are stocks purchased for pennies and sold for dollars, providing both brokers and stock promoters massive profits. Brokers are often paid “under the table” undisclosed payoffs to sell such stocks.[6][7]
  • Dump and dilute schemes, where companies repeatedly issue shares for no reason other than taking investors’ money away. Companies using this kind of scheme tend to periodically reverse-split the stock.
  • Other unscrupulous brokerage practices, including “bait and switch,” unauthorized trading, and “no net sales” policies in which customers are prohibited or discouraged from selling stocks.[8]

Pump and dump scenarios

Pump and dump schemes tend to take place either on the Internet including e-mail spam campaigns or through telemarketing from “boiler room” brokerage houses (for example, see Boiler Room). Often the stock promoter will claim to have “inside” information about impending news. Newsletters that purport to offer unbiased recommendations then tout the company as a “hot” stock. Messages in chat rooms and email spam urge readers to buy the stock quickly.[1]

Unwitting investors then purchase the stock, creating high demand and raising the price. This seemingly “real” rise in prices can entice more people to believe the hype and to buy shares as well. When the people behind the scheme sell their shares and stop promoting the stock, the price plummets, and other investors are left holding stock that is worth significantly less than what they paid for it.

Fraudsters frequently use this ploy with small, thinly traded companies—known as “penny stocks,” generally traded over-the-counter (in the United States, this would mean markets such as the OTC Bulletin Board or the Pink Sheets), rather than markets such as the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ—because it is easier to manipulate a stock when there is little or no independent information available about the company.[2] The same principle applies in the United Kingdom, where target companies are typically small companies on the AIM or OFEX.

A more modern spin on this attack is known as hack, pump and dump.[3] In this form a person purchases penny stocks in advance and then uses compromised brokerage accounts to purchase large quantities of that stock. The net result is a price increase, which is often pushed further by day traders seeing a quick advance in a stock. The holder of the stock then sells his stock at a premium.[4]

During the dot-com era, when stock market fever was at its height and many people spent significant amounts of time on stock Internet message boards, a 15-year-old named Jonathan Lebed showed how easy it was to use the Internet to run a successful pump-and-dump. Lebed bought penny stocks and then promoted them on message boards, pointing at the price increase. When other investors bought the stock, Lebed sold his for a profit, leaving the other investors holding the bag. He came to the attention of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which filed a civil suit against him alleging security manipulation. As is commonly the case in SEC actions, Lebed settled the charges by paying a fraction of his total gains. He neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing, but promised not to manipulate securities in the future.[5]

Enron

As late as April 2001, before the company’s collapse, Enron executives participated in an elaborate scheme of pump-and-dump[6] in addition to other illegal practices that fooled even the most experienced analysts on Wall Street. Studies of the anonymous messages posted on the Yahoo board dedicated to Enron revealed predictive messages that the company was basically a house of cards, and that investors should bail out while the stock was good.[7] Enron had falsely reported profits which inflated the stock price, and then covered the real numbers by using questionable accounting practices. 29 Enron executives sold overvalued stock for more than a billion dollars before the company went bankrupt.[8]

Park Financial Group

In April 2007, the SEC brought charges against Park Financial Group as a result of an investigation into a pump and dump scheme during 2002-2003 of the Pink Sheet listed stock of Spear & Jackson Inc.[9]

Pump and dump spam

Pump and dump stock scams are prevalent in spam, accounting for about 15% of spam e-mail messages. A survey of 75,000 unsolicited emails sent between January 2004 and July 2005 concluded that spammers could make a return of 6% by using this method, while recipients who act on the spam message typically lose 5% of their investment within two days.[10] A study by Böhme and Holz[11] shows a similar effect. Stocks targeted by spam are almost always “penny stocks“, selling for less than $5 per share, not traded on major exchanges, are thinly traded, and are difficult or impossible to sell short. Spammers acquire stock before sending the messages, and sell the day the message is sent.[12]

Chop stocks

A chop stock is an equity, usually trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market, OTC Bulletin Board or Pink Sheets listing services, that is purchased at pennies per share and sold by unscrupulous stock brokers to unsuspecting retail customers at several dollars per share.[9][10]

This practice differs from a pump and dump in that the brokerages make money, in addition to hyping the stock, by marketing a security they purchase at a deep discount. In this practice, the brokerage firm generally acquires the block of stock by purchasing a large block of the securities (usually from a large shareholder who is not affiliated with the underlying company) at a negotiated price that is well below the current market price (generally 40% to 50% below the then-current quoted offer/ask price) or it acquires the stock as payment for a consulting agreement.[11]

The subject stocks usually have little or no liquidity prior to the block purchase. After the block is purchased, the firm’s participating brokers will sell the stock to their brokerage customers at the then-current quoted offer/ask price, to the often victimized investors who are generally unaware of this practice. This large difference, or “spread” between the then-current quoted offer/ask price and the deeply discounted price the block of stock was purchased is almost always shared with the stockbroker at the firm who solicited the trade. For this reason, there is a large benefit and an inherent conflict of interest for the firm and the broker to sell these “proprietary products”.

Because the firm is technically “at risk” on the block of stock (if the price of the stock drops below the price at which the block was purchased, the firm will be at a loss on the stock) and stock is usually sold at or even slightly below the then-current prevailing market price offer/ask, the practice is still legal in the United States. In fact, it is not required that this profit spread be disclosed to the client, since it is not technically a “commission”. When a brokerage house sells such stock from its own inventory, a client will receive a trade confirmation stating the transaction was done as “Riskless Principal” or “Markup”, which in fact, just like commissions, is also revenue to the firm, and such a practice is often subject to abuse. Only the amount of fees charged over and above the offer/ask are commissions, and must be disclosed. But even though it is still legal, it is frowned upon by the Securities Exchange Commission, and they are using other laws and methods of attack to indirectly thwart the practice.

Organized crime involvement

Microcap fraud has been a major source of income for organized crime.[12] Mob figures from each of the Five Families of the New York mafia, as well as the New Jersey mob, have become involved in stock scams.

Mafia involvement in 1990s stock swindles was first explored by investigative reporter Gary Weiss in a December 1996 Business Week article.[13] Weiss later explored the Mafia’s Wall Street scams in a book.[14]

Organized crime elements were believed to have been short-selling chop stocks in the late 1990s.[15]

Robert Schiller’s Lectures on Finance and Investing

“Someone mentioned the philosopher’s stone. To the surprise of all present, Law said he had discovered it. “I can tell you my secret,” said the financier. “It is to make gold out of paper.” –John Law, Promoter of the South Sea Bubble. (Source:John Law, by H. Montgomery Hyde)

Robert Schiller’s Lectures

There are a series of approximately 26 lectures from Robert Schiller’s Economics 252 Class at Yale’s School of Management.

Take in as much as you want of academic finance from these lectures. I posted several below, but you can find the others in numbered sequence on www.youtube.com.

Human Foibles, Fraud, Manipulation, and Regulation http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEB2k9jJzzc

Professional Money Managers and Their Influence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QM-ZzuIMRg&feature=relmfu

Options Markets:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQChTusyPJA&feature=channel&list=UL

Universal Principle of risk management pooling and hedging of risk http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMkD8HKJQCM&feature=relmfu

Portfolio Diversification and Supporting Financial Institutions (CAPM Model) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efPKwxZuLKY&feature=BFa&list=ULsQChTusyPJA

Banking: Successes and Failures:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5u1xJVXurk&feature=BFa&list=ULefPKwxZuLKY

Guest Lecture by Andrew Redleaf:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMbhgSBIUfk&feature=BFa&list=ULq5u1xJVXurk


 

 

The Leverage Cycle; P/E Multiples

A 55-minute Video from a Yale Professor on the Leverage Cycle

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2012/05/geanakoplos-on-leverage-cycle.html

Solving the Crisis

http://mises.org/daily/3615

The principal problem with the current economic crisis is that the authorities are trying to solve the debt crisis by adding more debt — which is akin to trying to cure a viral infection by injecting more viruses. In case some have forgotten, the United States is undergoing a serious credit crisis, that is, a debt crisis.

All sectors of the American economy are suffering from a chronic addiction to credit, which manifests itself as the disease of excess debt. Household, business, and public debt have reached all-time highs. Consequently, it would not seem logical for the federal government to fight the debt crisis by adding trillions of dollars to the national debt and by lowering interest rates to promote even more credit.

A debt crisis can only be solved by paying down and reducing debt; it cannot be solved by compounding ever-more debt on top of an extremely over-leveraged economy.

Why bad Multiples happen to good companies

This article has an interesting section on the difficulty of using multiples to compare companies. Also, investors are skeptical of high ROIC companies that have a lot of goodwill. Interesting…

Why bad multiples happen to good companies

Lessons on Reading a 13-F

For those who look at 13-F filings, here is advice from a money manager (Tilson Funds www.tilsonfunds.com) who files 13-Fs since he manages over $100 million.

Lessons on reading a 13-F

Like every other “institutional investment manager” with over $100 million in securities, we filed our Q1 13F with the SEC recently (you can see ours at: http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327388/000139834412001831/fp0004886_13fhr.txt). It’s very easy to misread a 13F and reach erroneous conclusions – let me highlight a few, using ours as an example:

A) Right up top, under the “Form 13F SUMMARY PAGE”, it says, “Form 13F Information Table Value Total: $ 345,109 (thousands).” I wish we had $345 million under management, but we don’t, so why does it say this? The answer is that when call option positions are reported on a 13F, the dollar amount listed is NOT the market value of the option but rather the full value of the underlying stock. For example, to pick a random stock we don’t own, let’s say we owned call options on 10,000 shares of Procter & Gamble stock that expire in a month, with a strike price of $67.50. With the stock at $64.36, each option costs a mere 12 cents, so the value of this position would be $1,200 – yet on a 13F filing, it would appear as a $6.436 million position! Thus, the seven call option positions listed in our 13F are nowhere close to being worth the $104.1 million they are listed at. Specifically, our Berkshire call option position, listed at $76.3 million, more than 4x larger than any other position, is worth only a tiny fraction of that amount, as the great majority of our position is in common stock.

B) Short positions are not disclosed in 13F filings so it’s impossible to tell what a manager’s actual exposure is. For example, a manager could appear to be very heavily exposed on the long side to the market, a particular sector, or a specific stock, but in fact have the exact opposite exposure in reality. I recall one time that our 13F showed that we owned a few shares in InterOil, which caused some to question whether we’d reversed our long-standing bearishness on this company. In fact, it was (and still is) one of our largest shorts, so why did we have a small long position? The reason is that it can sometimes be hard to get the borrow on the stock, so when we do get the borrow, we sometimes borrow and short more shares than we want, offset by a small long position that allows us to easily trade around a core position. So, for example, if we wanted a 80,000 share short position of a stock, we might borrow and short 100,000 shares and then buy 20,000 shares. Only the 20,000 shares, however, appear in the 13F.

C) This is unique to us, but our 13F lists securities that Glenn and I didn’t buy because the holdings of the Tilson Dividend Fund, which our friend Zeke Ashton of Centaur Capital in Dallas manages, appear on our 13F.

And Where are We Now? The Market as a Discounting Mechanism

“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”

“People are habitually guided by the rearview mirror and, for the most part, by the vistas immediately behind them.” – Warren Buffett

Legg Mason’s Letter on Current Equity Premiums and Investor’s Views on future Growth Investors current May 2012 expectations for stocks

The Market as a discounting Mechanism

In September 2011, I posted on the bad news cascading in the housing market: http://wp.me/p1PgpH-2g and I posted the link below to show the charts of various home builders’ stocks.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=xhb&time=13&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=9%2F21%2F2011&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=mdc%2Ctol&comp=mdc%2Ctol&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=

320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=

false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=12&x=42&y=24

Behold, the stocks are up about 50% to 100% now that the news is becoming positive. Note the Presentation from Doug Kass:Kass-ValueInvestingCongress-5712 –go to the last three pages to view the need for housing stock.

Home Sales Improving

http://app1.kuhf.org/articles/1337110892-Houston-Home-Sales-Up-10-From-April-2011.html

Economic Blogs

Excellent post on our current economic conditions here: http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/ and http://mjperry.blogspot.com/

Prof. Greenwald Video at Creighton Business School

Students ask questions of Value Investors

Prof. Greenwald discusses the inanities of using DCF; the lure of lottery ticket investing and the success of Columbia’s value investing students.

http://business.creighton.edu/news/creighton-vip-draws-financial-experts Scroll down and the video link (1 hours) is at the bottom of the page.

Buffett’s 13-F

http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000119312512234582/d352241d13fhr.txt

Joel Greenblatt’s Article on his Magic Formula

Go here and read several articles on Joel’s Magic Formula Investing: www.greenbackd.com

Joel’s Adding Your Two Cents May Cost You A Lot Over The Long-Term

 

Buffett Answers Questions

A reader forwarded me the link to an excellent web-site with an index of all the questions ever asked of Buffett in public.

Thanks Nick for organizing this resource

http://buffettfaq.com

Also, do not forget the many fine posts on psychology, investing and learning http://www.simoleonsense.com/ and www.greenbackd.com

A Reader Lands Hedge Fund Job

A Reader Sought Advice

http://wp.me/p1PgpH-lm

Thanks to all the advice offered by other readers, this person landed a job at a multi-billion dollar fund.  I received this letter:

I am more than happy to share my experience – it obviously may not be very useful as each person has a different background/personality but I hope the general rules that I have learned the hard way will prove useful to some.

With that said, here is a summary of my key recruiting pointers:

1.     Email + Call + Meet professionals in the industry – one of my coworkers speaks barely passable English, works under the often-shunned H1B1 visa, and as the appearance of sluggish slacker.  First impression would tell you that he would be the last person in the labor force to land an analyst role at a top investment management firm.  At least that’s what I assumed.  Then one day I was discussing the gloomy job market in finance with him and he mentioned in passing that he had emailed about 100 professionals before finding someone in his Alumni network willing to talk to him.  He has a master’s in financial engineering from UCLA and guess what his teammates are doing? Looking for jobs.  He commented, “of course you can’t find a job if you just submit your resume, come on, who’s going to look at 500 resumes?”  I took a similar approach after having failed miserably with mass-emailing resumes and catchy cover letters.  It’s an approach that worked for me and my coworker and we aren’t the brightest or the most experienced so perhaps it will work even better for others who are brighter/more qualified.

2.     Research the firm + the role – while it’s obvious that you should research the firm that you are interviewing for, it’s less apparent that you must research the role.  Often times the role description will be a bunch of mumble jumble so I have found it helpful to learn about the position from someone in the department before the interview if possible.  This is hard to do in most cases so the next best alternative is to write down what interviewers tell you and rapidly build up your knowledge during the interview.  I have found that especially when interviewing with more senior people, they are much more interested in your knowledge about the role than your skills and intelligence.

3.     Leverage recruiters – I tailored my linked-in profile to the investment management/hedge fund industry.  My hunch is that recruiters heavily leverage LinkedIn to find candidates and big companies often use recruiters to screen candidates.  Therefore, recruiters can be your best friends in getting a job if you are open to them, respect them, and seek their advice.  My recruiter gave me a list of common questions that the firm was known to ask and it sure is a lot easier going into a test knowing most of the questions.  Also, it’s helpful to have someone who already has a relationship with the firm and knows all the do’s and don’ts to follow-up on your behalf.

4.     Be aware and mindful of interview taboos – I went into one important interview (for me at least) with a cup of coffee and found out later that it was a big taboo because it makes you look like a tool.  If you are like me, this kind of stuff is not obvious so make sure to google interview don’ts before you go in.

5.     Be open-minded – I went into interviews originally with the mindset that I just want to do investment research, I don’t want to build pretty power points or do grunt work.  This prevented me from passing up many good opportunities.  Then one day I realized that I was too damn closed-minded and decided to not jump to conclusions and try to get every interview I can.  If it worked, then great, and if not, then I got free practice.

6.    Be realistic – in the end, I’ve learned that unless you have certain experiences/credentials/connections, some jobs are simply not for you.  For example, hedge fund managers will not talk to you if you don’t have sell-side experience.  It boggles my mind why 100+ hours, adderall-charged work weeks spent making Powerpoints prettier and building simple spreadsheets translates to business acumen or investing prowess but reality says otherwise and reality must be respected.  As an aside, I feel that many of the seemingly meaningless hurdles designed into the corporate ladder is because the managers had to go through the same hurdles so unless you’re a genius, why should you be granted a shortcut?  The answer seems to be either play their game or do it on your own, which I think is vastly more preferable if you have the gumption.

I hope this is helpful.  Keep in mind that what I have described above is what I found to be useful in landing a corporate job and I suppose does not apply to someone who wants to start his/her own fund.  If I had to boil what I have learned down to one sentence, it would be: respect reality and act accordingly. 

Please feel free to share the above/parts of the above with your readers in any way that you see fit.  I only wish to remain anonymous.

p.s. I found this blog on Charlie Munger, check it out! http://mungerisms.blogspot.com/

The Flaws of Finance

James Montier’s Behavioral Investing Podcast

His talk starts at the 18:30 mark. Note his comments on fin. models and the Fed. http://cfapodcast.smartpros.com/web/live_events/Annual/Montier/index.html

His recent article at www.gmo.com discussing this lecture The Flaws of Finance