Category Archives: Competitive Analysis

EUREKA! An Excellent Book on Strategic Logic

Another generous reader contributed riches to the value vault. This book is a great supplement to Competition Demystified.  I rate the book as a great way to improve your understanding of analyzing businesses.

We are all fortunate:Strategic_Logic

Cooperation without Incarceration from Competition Demystified

Let’s face it. In most of life we really are interdependent. We need each other. Staunch independence is an illusion, but heavy dependence isn’t healthy either. The only position of long-term strength is inter-dependence: win/win. –Greg Anderson

The original cases from Chapter 14 and 15 from Competition Demystified http://wp.me/p1PgpH-J3

For easier reading the PDF of this post:Chapter 14_Cooperation without Incarceration

Chapter 14: Cooperation without Incarceration: Bigger Pies, Fairly Divided

What are the three parts of the “fairness principle” needed to sustain cooperation?

Utilizing “fairness” principles to divide the spoils while sustaining cooperation

For cooperation to be sustained, all of the cooperating parties need to be satisfied with the returns they receive from continuing to cooperate. If any player becomes sufficiently dissatisfied, it will inevitably abandon its cooperative behavior. Non-cooperation from a single player may lead to a cascading collapse in cooperation by others.

Individual Rationality

The first condition of fairness is that no firm in a cooperative arrangement should receive less than it could obtain in a non-cooperative setting. Unless it makes sense for each firm to cooperate, meaning that each firm does at least as well by cooperating as by refusing to cooperate, then cooperation will not be sustainable. In this sense, the original division of the spoils will not be fair. Because of the fairness conditions, it is important to consider the outcome that firms can achieve when they do not cooperate. The “threat” being non-cooperation and a myopic pursuit of one’s individual goals. The same outcome is referred to by the acronym BATNA—the best alternative to a negotiated agreement. It is the yardstick against which the firm’s rewards under a cooperative arrangement are measured. In organizing a fair division of the spoils, the non-cooperative outcomes for all the participants have to be taken into account.

If the component and equipment makers existed in a world without cooperation, new entrants and internal competition would drive their economic profit to zero, meaning that they would earn a return on their invested capital equal to the cost of acquiring that capital. The threat point or BATNA, for these companies, the point at which they would be better off without cooperating, is at this level of reward, when they earn no more than their cost of capital.

Firms that operate without competitive advantages should not expect to earn returns above their cost of capital even when they work in a cooperative environment. The principle of individual rationality implies that the only benefits of cooperation that are subject to divvying up are those gains above the non-cooperation outcomes, that is, gains that are the benefits to cooperation itself. When among all the cooperating companies only one firm enjoys competitive advantages over its actual potential rivals, it will reap all the rewards. In many instances, however, more than one firm benefits from competitive advantages, and has some claim on the cooperative gains. In the personal computer industry supply chain, both Microsoft and Intel enjoy significant competitive advantages.

Symmetry

Under the principles of symmetry, if all the legitimate claimants to the benefits of joint cooperation, that is, all those enjoying competitive advantages and therefore not forced to cooperation by competitive pressure, look essentially the same, then they should divide the benefits of cooperation equally. If, among essentially identical cooperating firms, some of them consistently appropriate a disproportionate share of the benefits of cooperation, then the firms that have been shortchanged are going to be dissatisfied, and legitimately so. Forms with authentic grievances will not cooperate indefinitely.

If two firms in an industry both enjoy competitive advantages, cooperation requires that both participate. Then, of the benefits of cooperation can be shared between them, so that each dollar of benefit surrendered by one firm is transferred to the other one, the division of the benefits should be equal. The firms are equal in that each is essential for there to be any benefits of cooperation, and therefore, according to the symmetry condition, they ought to expect to share in them equally. If either makes a determined effort to seize more than an equal share, threat move will ultimately undermine the cooperation between them, hurting them both. As in so many other areas of business strategy, a calculated restraint on aggression is essential to long-term success.

Linear Invariance

The need for fairness applies to situations in which several firms, all with competitive advantages, occupy the same segment in the value chain and divide the market horizontally. In this case, the fairness principle dictates that if there are two firms in a segment, and one of them has twice the size or strength of the other, then its portion of the benefits from cooperation should be twice as large.

Nash used the term linear invariance for this version of the fairness requirement. It works by assigning shares of cooperatively exploited horizontal market in proportion to the cooperating firms’ relative economic position–to each his own, on other words.

What are the benefits in analyzing how an industry and its players could cooperate even when there is no chance that the companies in a particular industry can overcome their competitive behavior?

The cooperative perspective is instructive even where there is no chance that the companies in a particular industry will be able to overcome their antagonisms and work out some kind of cooperative arrangement. It can identify potential areas of cooperation, even if they are limited to only one or a few of the areas was listed earlier in the chapter, like specializing research and development to avoid duplicating one another’s efforts. Only after it has made these decisions is it time to turn to the question of what rewards it might reasonably expect to earn from these focused activities.

It is also useful in highlighting a firm’s genuine strengths by pointing out where it would fare if the industry were organized cooperatively. In this respect, it can help clarify realistic expectations and terms for prospective strategic alliances and relationships between suppliers and purchasers.

Finally, if a firm’s own prospective position within a cooperative configuration of an industry does not look promising—at the extreme, the firm has no reasons for existing if there is no cooperation because, for example, it is a high-cost supplier—this information provides an important strategic insight into a company’s future. Its survival will depend on the failure of the other companies in its industry to cooperative effectively with one another. If it wants to continue, it will have to improve its position before the stronger market participants learn to cooperate successfully.

By recognizing the ultimate consequences for itself if others cooperate, the firm’s management can get a sense of how long it has to live and how far it has to go to survive. These are essential pieces of information for formulating a useful strategy for such a disadvantaged firm. Such insights add to the overall value of a cooperative viewpoint which is an indispensable supplement to the more standard forms of competitive analysis.  In the area of competitive analysis, it is important to keep in mind the fundamental complexity of the problems at issue.  Clarity depends on a picture built up carefully from a group of simplifying perspectives. Fully cooperative view of the world, however unrealistic in pro-active, is a perspective that contributes meaningfully to that clarity of vision.

Successful cooperation is neither common nor easy. The rival firms have to find a way to work in harmony to advance their joint interest, and they have to do it legally, to avoid drawing the wrath of the agencies charged with preventing and punishing restraint of trade.

In Chapter 15 we will study several potential outcomes of a potentially cooperative arrangement in the case of Nintendo and Eythl Corporation

Updated Links for Competition Demystified and Ethyl Corp (Robotti)

I highly recommend that you go to the links below to read the PDF of this book. But the PDF lacks many of the graphs and tables so essential to the book. The point is to help you with the cases while you order the book–highly recommended–only about $11 to $15. One of the best books on analyzing businesses that I have stumbled upon. Ironically, the book never became popular like Good to Great and other Pop Management books.  Go here for the PDF of the book: Competition_Demystified__A_

Radically_Simplified_Approach_to_Business_Strategy

For a book review and link to Amazon’s reviews go here:

http://www.amazon.com/books-used-books-textbooks/b/ref=topnav_storetab_b?ie=UTF8&node=283155

http://seekingalpha.com/article/102642-the-importance-of-understanding-competitive-dynamics-to-picking-stocks

Robotti’s Investment Thesis of Ethyl Corporation

Yesterday, the case on Ethyl Corporation was provided http://wp.me/p1PgpH-J3. This is a case on managing a declining business (Lead-based Gasoline became outlawed). For more understanding and background I added an investor’s perspective on Ethyl here: Robotti Mention of Ethyl (See page 25)

The above article also has good analysis of Spin-offs. An excellent read. Thanks to a reader’s heads up!

Readers’ Questions and more

QUESTIONS

A reader from Norway: May I ask a couple of more questions please?

  •  What would you do differently if you had the opportunity to go back in time when you first audited Columbia Business School classes, how would you approach the learning material differently? How would you accelerate the learning process and absorb the material?

I stumbled upon Joel Greenblatt’s book, You Can Be a Stock Market Genius, and became hooked. My author search led me to Columbia’s GBS where he was teaching a class. I hopped on the train to 125th street in NYC and sat in on his classes. He graciously allowed in 1999 for auditors to sit in like Ben Graham allowed back in the 1940s and 50s. In fact, there were more non-students than graduate students in Graham’s classes.  I already had worked on Wall Street—useless for understanding how businesses worked or how to value them—but I had started companies so my background was applicable.

I would approach the material in the same way like learning how to fly a plane or develop any skill. You learn the theory, you practice in controlled situations (case studies) then you apply what you have learned in the market and then reflect on what you did right or wrong.  Read voraciously from many sources.

  •  What was you biggest learning/insight/eureka moment from Greenblatt and Greenwald?

There are no secrets. You need to be comfortable with uncertainty and limited knowledge. You have to work hard to find and value businesses. Not all businesses are able to be valued by you, so walk away; be selective.  Investing is doing, so apply your knowledge to the opportunities in front of you (or wait for tomorrow for better ones to tumble at your feet). Investing is a solo activity. The key moment was realizing no guru can show you the way; you will have to think for yourself and apply the principles to the world around you. I don’t visit investment conferences anymore because I don’t want to hear other people’s ideas; I prefer to spend time uncovering my own. Time is precious, thus choices have to be made. You can’t watch other investors, mimic them or just copy; you have to be unique in your own way in seeking bargains. You have to be your own analyst. Yes, you should listen to others like: https://www.lmcm.com/OwnWords.asp?f=Sam_Peters_LMCMs_Philosophy_Process.wmv&d=869180 but time is better spent reading your own pile of 10-Ks.

  • In relation to your CBS class mates, what surprised you the most? What did they do wrong, did most of them maximize their learning opportunity?

I saw several playing video games. They didn’t care who Joel Greenblatt was or what he was teaching. They were there to fill a requirement to get an MBA and a high paying job.  I believe there course load is quite heavy so they might not have had the time to go more in depth into investing ideas and concepts. Again, if you want to be focused on investing, business school is not the place. You learn how to become a manager and you leave with a network. But I do not judge them. Many should not waste their time and talent on just investing.   Many are not suitable to the lonely journey of investing.

  • How did you manage to transcribe every word from the Greenblatt lectures? (the transcribed documents from Greenblatt > Greenblatt videos).

I taped the lectures then sent the clips to India to be transcribed. I sat in on classes for five years (1999 to 2003). If you are diligent, you could have taken Greenblatt’s book, Stock Market Genius and recreate from SEC filings of all his past investments just as if you were in his classes. Joel reminds me of Columbo, the TV detective (https://www.lmcm.com/OwnWords.asp?f=Sam_Peters_LMCMs_Philosophy_Process.wmv&d=869180). Joel makes investing seem so simple, but there is a lot of experience, knowledge and skill behind his actions.

  •  A reader from Uruguay asks, “How can I use the magic formula?” How do you calculate ROIC?

Go to www.magicformulainvesting.com and go to www.greenbackd.com to learn more.

Another reader asks:

I just finished Competition Demystified by Bruce Greenwald and it was an excellent book. This book has really opened my eyes and I can honestly say I have never approached investing from that point of view.

  •  I just need to try to apply it consistently. When you evaluate and investment and determine its a franchise, do you go through the steps he lays out in Chapter 2?

I try to understand the qualitative sources of competitive advantage so I can learn the company/industry. For example, I saw amazing share stability with title insurance companies stretching back 100 years, but cyclical and sometimes low profitability—why?  Most of the value accrues to the sales agent in a title insurance transaction, but due to regulation and databases, there are only three or four national title insurers. The process helps you break apart the sources of profitability for companies. The more you can understand, the better you will be able to normalize earnings or determine sustainability of growth.

THANKS FOR THE QUESTIONS!

Readings

Notes from Buffett’s Shareholder Meeting:Berkshire_Hathaway_Annual_Meeting_Notes_2012 and Berkshire_Hathaway_Annual_Meeting_2012

How to write a research report by Buffett (GEICO):The_Security_I_Like_Best_Buffett_1951

Do not forget to read: www.marketfolly.com for interesting presentations.

www.greenbackd.com as several recent articles on the Magic Formula.

Chapters 14 and 15 in Competition Demystified: Nintendo and Ethyl Corp. Case Studies

Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.–Warren Buffett

The issue with growth companies is always (1) whether the growth can be in fact be sustained into the future; and (2) whether those improved earnings have already been discounted at the time of purchase. All the evidence suggests that investors tend to overpay for growth. Our study suggests that paying more than 11 times five-year forward earnings for any kind of stock will be a unrewarding exercise; and that to beat the market convincingly lower ratings are still desirable. In the Templeton philosophy of investment, valuation is ultimately the constraint that limits any investor’s capacity for making consistent and repeatable gains. –page 165 of Templeton’s Way with Money by Jonathan Davis and Alasdair Nairn

Chapter 14: Cooperation without Incarceration: Bigger Pies, Fairly Divided

Study Questions:

  • What are the three parts of the “fairness principle” needed to sustain cooperation?
  • What are the benefits in analyzing how an industry and its players could cooperate even when there is no chance that the companies in a particular industry can overcome their competitive behavior?

Chapter 15: Cooperation: The Dos and Don’ts

Read the Nintendo case:HBS Nintendo in Video Games Case Study

Then try the study questions:

  • Describe the “virtuous circle” that Nintendo enjoyed when it dominated the 8-bit games market.
  • What were the major reasons Nintendo’s position as market leader deteriorated?

A good book to study for these cases is Co-opetition by Adam Brandenburger and Barry Nalebuff: http://www.consulttci.com/Book_reviews/coopetition.html

If you can’t read the book, then see the slides:Nalebuff and Coopetition Slides and also:http://www.provenmodels.com/593/co-opetition/brandenburger-nalebuff

Ethyl Case Study:HBS_Ethyl Corporation in 1979_Case Study

Robert Robotti’s Investment Thesis on (page 25) :Robotti Mention of Ethyl

Study Question:

  • In the lead additive market, what were the four or five major reasons the competitors maintained high profits despite a continually shrinking market?

Austrian Economics or (Anti-Keynesian) Policy Works in Sweden

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/05/anti-keynesian-supply-side-tax-and.html Surprise!  Interference and coersion distorts price signals that impedes the efficient allocation of resources thus destroying wealth.

Secret Research Tools for Success

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZnkql_Xkhc

Kodak-Polaroid Case Study from Chapter 13 of Competition Demystified

Case Study of Kodak’s Entry Strategy into Polaroid’s Market

HBS Case Study Part 1: Polaroid and Kodak 376_266 _1984 CS

HBS Case Study Part 2: Kodak vs Polaroid CS

This case illustrates Kodak’s ill-conceived entry strategy against Polaroid–a strong incumbent with competitive advantages.

This article http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/editors/27508/ shows why Kodak descended into bankruptcy. In my opinion, Kodak might have generated more shareholder value by focusing on protecting its film market while managing the business in run-off made by returning capital to shareholders. If Kodak wanted to compete in other markets, perhaps it could have spun-off subsidiarities to allow shareholders and other investors to have more choice in allocating capital.

Analysis

Chapter 13 Kodak and Polaroid Case Study Analysis

Case Study Analysis of Kiwi Airlines Entry Strategy

Kiwi Airline Case Study

This is an important case for learning about successful and unsuccessful entry strategies.

The Kiwi Case Study was provided:Kiwi Airlines CS

The analysis is here:Chapter 12

On to Kodak Takes on Polaroid (Chapter 13 in Competition Demystified).

Housekeeping: New Case Study added to Kodak-Polaroid CS

Polaroid – Kodak 18 page Case Study Added

Yesterday in this post http://wp.me/p1PgpH-HI I forgot to add the HBS Case Study Part 1 Polaroid and Kodak 376_266 _1984 CS (18 pages) to the case. I also added it to that post.

This is an important case on a poor entry strategy against a strong incumbent.

SNPK has ANOTHER bad week, KIWI and Polaroid/Kodak Case Studies; Mastery

Another blood bath for “shareholders”

The saga continues as the scam/promotion unwinds inevitably. The fascinating aspect of this study is how the boom bust cycle of SNPK looks similar to the

NASDAQ’s boom/bust cycle of 1993 to 2002.

Note the rise from 1992, then accelerated rise in 1998 to mid-2000 that reached a crescendo and then the collapse in price in 2000/2002–leading to the slow decline as frustrated and stubborn investors throw in the towel. But in the case of SNPK, since it is a promote, there will be no rebirth–just a quote of $0 bid and $.000001 offer by next year.

NASDAQ

Case Studies

This week has been hectic as you can see from this video of my research team at work:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pblj3JHF-Jo.

My next posts on Monday or Tuesday will be on the analysis of our two cases studies in Competition Demystified (Chapters 12 and 13)

Anyone want a crack first?

Chapter 12: Fear of Not Flying: Kiwi Enters the Airline Industry

  1. Describe Kiwi’s entry strategy and explain why it was initially successful. Where did they go wrong and why?
  2. What is the evidence that there were no existing barriers to entry in the airline industry in the 1980s?

Kiwi Airlines CS

Chapter 13: No Instant Gratification: Kodak Takes on Polaroid.

  1. Detail Polaroid’s competitive advantages in the instant photography market.
  2. What were Polaroid’s responses to Kodak’s launch into the instant photography market?
  3. Was there an alternative approach for Kodak that might have been more successful?
  4. If you were running Kodak in the 1970s, what strategy would you have followed—given all the benefits of hindsight?

Kodak vs Polaroid CS

Mastery

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpDdaC1_UGg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyRZMj8mkm4&feature=related

What can you apply to the world of investing?

Have a Great Weekend!

Barnes & Noble Valuation Case Study

There are opportunities to learn all around us.  The recent announcement of Microsoft’s $300 million investment in the Nook–Barnes & Noble’s eReader provides a reference point for valuation.

Barnes & Noble (BKS) Case Study Materials

BKS and MSFT Agreement 8K April 27 2012 What valuation can you derive from MSFT’s purchase price?

BKS 10Q March 8 2012 The most recent 10-Q. Combine with the 10-K to value BKS on your own.  BKS 10K April 30 2011

The Amazon Letter discusses the Kindle: Amazon Letter to Shareholders 2011

Try to think about how you would value BKS. If you struggle, then look at the case study materials below, then return to the financial statements. Don’t become discouraged.  The research report below isn’t perfect (lacks a full competitive analysis of the different businesses), but the report does do a good job in showing you how the author reached a valuation. You may disagree with the assumptions, but you know what they are.

When you read of a public transaction for a company or part of a company, you have a reference point to test your valuation skills. Good luck!

Valuation of Barnes & Noble

Barnes & Noble Case Study