Category Archives: Economics & Politics

Bill Miller on Central Banks and the Financial Crisis

Video of Bill Miller discussing central banking April 2012

http://www.interdependence.org/resources/re-examining-central-bank-orthodoxy-for-un-orthodox-times-keynote-speech/   26 minutes

Even after seeing his Legg Mason portfolios devastated, Mr. Miller doesn’t consider the question, “Why do we need central banks?” After failure upon failure of central bank policies of ceaseless boom and bust, devaluation, ballooning debt, punititve interest rates–both too low and too high–what will cause the public to understand the futility of central financial planning?

Imagine if Miller had read Ludwig von Mises (www.mises.org) instead of quoting the Austrian Philosopher, Ludwig Wittgenstein, he would have an inkling of what caused the boom and bust that eviscerated his portfolios:cbm 2003 Version of Trade Cycle

 

 

 

 

I would rather invest with him: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZnkql_Xkhc

Why is 49 the lucky number in France?

http://prudent-speculation.blogspot.com/2012/05/in-france-49-is-lucky-number.html?

 

George Carlin on America; Buffett Notes; Aristotle on Ethics; Valuation and more

George Carlin, the Truth Teller

George Carlin: You have no Rights:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWiBt-pqp0E&feature=related

George Carlin on Choice in America: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKQs-jDI7j8&feature=related. Fascism won’t come to America in brown shirts and black boots but in yellow shirts with smiley faces on them.

Aristotle on Ethics

Judge men by their actions (one minute video):  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5quLP3rHxwQ&feature=related

Buffett Notes on 2012 Berkshire Shareholder Meeting

Notes on Recent Berkshire Hathaway Meeting (30 pages): http://covestreetcapital.com/Blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Notes-from-the-2012-Berkshire-Hathaway-Annual-Meeting.pdf

Herding Lizards on Wall Street:

The implication is that “Markets are irrational because of quirks in human nature,” Burnham explains in his 2005 book Mean Markets and Lizard Brains.

In this very interesting book Burnham explains that our lizard brains are pattern seeking and backward looking, which again was handy when we lived in caves, but not so great for managing our 401ks.

The fact is, without the constant inflation of fiat money, people would (or have to) spend very little time thinking about their money or savings. Squirreling a little money out of every paycheck would suffice for retirement preparation.

But the modern world of central-bank hyperplanning, hyperbailing, and hyperprinting makes that impossible.

http://mises.org/daily/6033/Herding-Lizards

Wall Street Traps for the Unwary: http://www.thereformedbroker.com/

Due Process Abandoned

The Obama administration now claims the authority to kill American citizens without a trial, without notice, and without any chance for targets to legally object. The “targeted killing” program of George W. Bush’s administration has been radically expanded to include Americans far from any war zone.

http://www.fff.org/freedom/fd1110c.asp

More on Buffett and his plans for forced redistribution: http://www.jamesaltucher.com/

Valuation

Jae Jun has borrowed some of my notes on Greenwald in his posts which I encourage anyone to do. His blog is an example of someone who is seriously committed to self-learning and teaching/sharing what he discovers. Bravo!  That said, no one is a guru so check  his posts with your own common sense and independent thinking. For example, replacement value is extremely difficult to do accurately.

http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/valuation-methods/valuation-matters-7-ways-value-stocks/

http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/valuation-methods/how-to-asset-reproduction-value-analysis/

Much more

www.simoleonsense.com

 

John Templeton’s Investment Letters; Investing and Valuation Blogs

John Templeton’s Client Letters, Videos and more

http://whatwouldjohntempletonsay.com/category/money

Valuation Blog:

A blog on Free Cash Flow analysis of Master Limited Partnerships

http://www.wiseanalysis.com/category/by-company/ngls/

About this Website

The website explains how distributable cash flow (DCF) is defined and why it is important to analyze it and derive a sustainable measure of DCF. Results reported by master limited partnerships (MLPs) are analyzed. comparisons of reported DCF to sustainable DCF are generated, and various coverage ratios and reports analyzing performance are generated. Simplified sources and uses of funds statements are presented to focus readers’ attention on key cash flow items. The website also features general articles about MLPs and about other topics of interest to yield-focused investors.
More detail on employment:http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/
http://mjperry.blogspot.c

Bronte Capital’s disappointment with Berkshire’s Shareholder meeting: www.brontecapital.com

Regrets of the dying:

http://www.inspirationandchai.com/Regrets-of-the-Dying.html

Interesting Blogs on History and Economics

Classes on History and economics

http://www.libertyclassroom.com/  Courses on History/Economics
http://www.libertyclassroom.com/category/blog/  Sample Course Videos
http://www.burtfolsom.com/  A blog on history
http://mises.org/Literature/  A free library on Austrian Economics

Paul vs. Paul Debate

http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/04/ron-paul-vs-paul-krugman-exciting-debate-on-video-with-transcript/

www.valuewalk.com is a recommended blog. Several readers kindly sent me links to the Ron Paul vs. Paul Krugman debate.  I am biased toward Ron Paul, but for the life of me I could not understand what Krugman was saying. Perhaps using reason will not convince a religious fanatic.

I stopped reading half way through the discussion, because I knew Ron Paul’s positions but couldn’t understand the logic behind Krugman’s contrary position.  Do you? A few examples:

Krugman’s response to Ron Paul:

You can’t leave the government out of monetary policy. If you think we’re going to let it set itself, it doesn’t happen. If you think you can avoid the government from setting monetary policy, you’re living in the world that was 150 years ago. We have an economy in which money is not just green pieces of paper with faces of dead presidents on them. Money is a part of the financial system that includes a variety of assets – we’re not quite sure where the line between money and non-money is. It’s a continuum.”

What is he saying. Getting the government out of monetary policy would be like regressing? A fall into a primitive state?  Krugman makes an “Elephants can fly” assertion.

Has a monetary system worked without government control? Yes, in the brief period of a classical gold standard pre-WWI.  However, fractional reserve banking (ponzi finance) operated so, of course, booms and busts would not be eliminated. Another assertion without facts. Fiduciary media existed during the gold standard era.

“History tells us that in fact a completely unmanaged economy is subject to extreme volatility, subject to extreme downturns. I know this legend that some people like that the Great Depression was somehow caused by the government or the Federal Reserve, but that’s not true. The reality is it was a market economy run amok, which happens repeatedly…I’m a believer in capitalism. I want the market economy to be left as free as it can be, but there are limits. You do need the government to step in to stabilize. Depressions are a bad thing for capitalism and it’s the role of the government to make sure they don’t happen, or if they do happen, they don’t last too long.”

So let me try to understand……an unmanaged economy is subject to extreme volatility. But with the Fed operating since 1913, we have had the Great Depression, Inflation of the 1970s, Ultra high interest rates of the 1980s, credit crisis of 2007-2009, a managed economy (the FED cartelizing the fractional reserve banking system and suppressing interest rates) is LESS volatile? What amount of failed economic policies due to intervention would you need to say–this is a failure?

The Federal Reserve helped inflate the boom: http://library.mises.org/books/Murray%20N%20Rothbard/Americas%20Great%20Depression.pdf

Since the inception of the Federal Reserve System in 1913, the supply of money and bank credit in America has been totally in the control of the federal government, a control that has been further strengthened by the U.S. repudiating the domestic gold standard in 1933, as well as the gold standard behind the dollar in foreign transactions in 1968 and finally in 1971. With the gold standard abandoned, there is no necessity for the Federal Reserve or its controlled banks to redeem dollars in gold, and so the Fed may expand the supply of paper and bank dollars to its heart’s content. The more it does so, the more prices tend to accelerate upward, dislocating the economy and bringing impoverishment to those people whose incomes fall behind in the inflationary race.

The Austrian theory further shows that inflation is not the only unfortunate consequence of governmental expansion of the supply of money and credit. For this expansion distorts the structure of investment and production, causing excessive investment in unsound projects in the capital goods industries. This distortion is reflected in the well-known fact that, in every boom period, capital goods prices rise further than the prices of consumer goods.

See what Graham and Buffett had to say about booms and busts:A Study of Market History through Graham Babson Buffett and Others

Krugman seems neither to understand Austrian Business Cycle Theory nor economics (“ABCT”): http://mises.org/daily/4993 and http://mises.org/daily/3579

Krugman is constantly shifting arguments:http://mises.org/daily/5086

Krugman’s response:

“I want to say something about Milton Friedman here because if you actually read what he wrote in his writing for economists, as opposed to some of his loose popular writings, he actually said that the Federal Reserve was responsible for the Great Depression because it didn’t go enough. Friedman’s complaint was that the Federal Reserve did not print enough money. I know this. When Ben Bernanke was talking about the helicopter, he was taking that from Milton Friedman. That was really his idea. The state of the economic debate in America right now Milton Friedman would count on the far left of monetary policy.”

Milton Friedman was advocating for the government to intervene and prevent the market clearing. But why was a non-interventionist policy during the vicious 1920/21 depression so successful:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czcUmnsprQI. Both theory, common sense and empirical evidence expose Krugman’s and Friedman’s nonsense.

Here is a seven minute video that explains booms and busts: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk

Interesting Reading: Models; Valuation Metrics and more….

“To what extent can we believe the conclusions of a model that assumes away the fundamental features of reality as we understand it?”

Models:http://www.mises.org/daily/6018/Assuming-Away-Reality.

A good review of the principles of Austrian Economics and why it matters to rely on reality not models.

Excerpt: There are important advantages in being familiar with the Austrian theory. This theory helps one keep in mind fundamental principles such as the subjectivity of value and the incompleteness of information that form the basis for human action. This approach makes it easier to spot errors in one’s economic thinking. One of the common errors is treating economic models as normative standards for reality rather than loose metaphors and illustrations of the logical conclusions resulting from prior theoretical analysis. This error creates a temptation to “fix” the reality to fit the model. Often times the fix only makes things worse, because it was not the reality that needed fixing. It was, in fact, the economist’s model that did not capture the key features of reality.

Valuation Metrics:

Several excellent articles on what valuation metrics are useful. Good news for value investors–high EBITDA to Enterprise Value generates better returns than other metrics. Go here:www.greenbackd.com

Research papers on valuation metrics:TEV to EBITDA Research and enterprise-multiple-vs-tobins-q

A hedge fund discusses various investments (Berkshire, Iridium): http://www.tilsonfunds.com/T2pres-4-12.pdf. Note the bullish thesis for Iridium. I discussed MCX and Iridium here http://wp.me/p1PgpH-zt. When every satellite company has gone bankrupt or has been on government support, the burden of proof is on Mr. Tilson.

Valueprax

A reader provides a link to a good blog on learning how to invest: http://valueprax.wordpress.com/2012/04/12/notes-geoff-gannon-digest-1-a-compilation-of-ideas-on-investing-geoffgannon-ncav-netnet-valueinvesting/

Various links on investing:http://abnormalreturns.com/tuesday-links-radically-different-activities/

Should the U.S. be a Union? http://www.mises.org/daily/6029/Rethinking-the-American-Union

The establishment’s view (PBS) of what caused the financial crisis of 2008:http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/money-power-wall-street/. Surprise! No mention of abnormally low interest rates or political intervention to force banks to make uneconomic loans in order to increase home ownership.

Inflation brewing: http://www.thedailybell.com/3846/The-Velocity-of-Money-Is-Coming-Along-With-Big-Price-Inflation

Does the U.S. Follow the Constitution? http://www.thefreemanonline.org/columns/tgif/lawless-government/

EXCERPT: Everyone pays lip service to the rule of law. Indeed I’ve never heard of anyone rejecting it as undesirable. (It has been called impossible under prevailing circumstances but that is a different point.) So why is the principle so flagrantly violated with almost no public outrage?

Take President Obama’s intervention in the Libyan civil war. Even if we grant that he could legally enter that conflict by his own unilateral decision – a big if, which we’ll explore below – the War Powers Resolution of 1973 requires him after 60 days to cease operations or ask Congress for authorization to continue. One week ago today the clock ran out on the Libyan intervention, yet Obama has neither ceased operations nor asked for authorization.

James Grant’s Speech to the Fed and More

James Grant argued for a return to the classical gold standard at the New York Federal Reserve. Note Grant’s command of financial and economic history. He references several books which you might find of interest. The beauty and purpose of the gold standard is that it takes monetary policy out of the control of moneyed elites and allows the market to work.  Critics will say that the nation had recurring booms and busts while on the classical gold standard, but they may be confusing the chaos of fractional reserve banking (being able to pyramid loans on top of deposits with fiduciary media) with the classical gold standard (the citizenry is able to convert currency into a fixed amount of gold).

Grant’s Speech to the New York Federal Reserve

My annotated copy is here:James Grant Speech on Gold and the FED April 2012

Robert Wenzel Speech

Another excellent critique of the Federal Reserve is Robert Wenzel’s speech on April 25th, 2012 http://www.mises.org/daily/6028/New-York-Fed-Leave-the-Building.

An excerpt: I simply do not understand most of the thinking that goes on here at the Fed, and I do not understand how this thinking can go on when in my view it smacks up against reality.

Please allow me to begin with methodology. I hold the view developed by such great economic thinkers as Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek, and Murray Rothbard that there are no constants in the science of economics similar to those in the physical sciences.

In the science of physics, we know that water freezes at 32 degrees. We can predict with immense accuracy exactly how far a rocket ship will travel filled with 500 gallons of fuel. There is preciseness because there are constants, which do not change and upon which equations can be constructed.

There are no such constants in the field of economics, because the science of economics deals with human action, which can change at any time. If potato prices remain the same for 10 weeks, it does not mean they will be the same the following day. I defy anyone in this room to provide me with a constant in the field of economics that has the same unchanging constancy that exists in the fields of physics or chemistry.

And yet, in paper after paper here at the Federal Reserve, I see equations built as though constants do exist. It is as if one were to assume a constant relationship existed between interest rates here and in Russia and throughout the world, and create equations based on this belief and then attempt to trade based on these equations. That was tried and the result was the blow up of the fund Long Term Capital Management — a blow up that resulted in high-level meetings in this very building.

It is as if traders assumed a given default rate was constant for subprime mortgage paper and traded on that belief. Only to see it blow up in their faces, as it did, again, with intense meetings being held in this very building.

Yet, the equations, assuming constants, continue to be published in papers throughout the Fed system. I scratch my head.

Origin of the Federal Reserve

The Origins of the Federal Reserve by Murray N. Rothbard (128 pages) http://library.mises.org/books/Murray%20N%20Rothbard/The%20Origins%20of%20the%20Federal%20Reserve.pdf

 

If you read and understand the above articles and book, you will have a good inkling of why the rich become richer and the poor become poorer.

If Value Investing Works, Why do Value Investors Underperform?

Value investing works, so why do value investors underperform? The evidence for activist value investors.

Visit the great blog www.greenbackd.com

http://greenbackd.com/2012/04/26/value-investing-works-so-why-do-value-investors-underperform-the-evidence-for-activist-value-investors/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Greenbackd+%28Greenbackd%29

The Research Paper is here:Do Value Investors Underperform

The author doesn’t know why value investors either under or outperform in my opinion.

The Paper’s Conclusion

Value investing comes in many stripes. First, there are the screeners, who we view as the direct descendants of the Ben Graham school of investing. They look for stocks that trade at low multiples of earnings, book value or revenues, and argue that these stocks can earn excess returns over long periods. It is not clear whether these excess returns are truly abnormal returns, rewards for having a long time horizon or just the appropriate rewards for risk that we have not adequately measured. Second, there are contrarian value investors, who take positions in companies that have done badly in terms of stock prices and/or have acquired reputations as poorly managed or run companies.

They are playing the expectations game, arguing that it is far easier for firms such as these to beat market expectations than firms that are viewed as successful firms. Finally, there are activist investors who take positions in undervalued and/or badly managed companies and by virtue of their holdings are able to force changes in corporate policy or management that unlock this value. What, if anything, ties all of these different strands of value investing together? In all of its forms, the common theme of value investing is that firms that are out of favor with the market, either because of their own performance or because the sector that they are in is in trouble, can be good investments.

What inspired Ron Paul: Mises Lecture on Socialism

http://bastiat.mises.org/2012/04/audio-of-the-mises-lecture-that-inspired-ron-paul/  Amazing audio lecture on why and how Socialism has to fail economically (no ability to use prices and thus allocate resources efficiently)

RANGO on Risk; Money, Gold, the Fed (James Grant Interview) and Learning Resources

Rango Teaches a Lesson on Risk Management

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKQt5fccVDs&feature=relmfu (1 minute). Watch!

James Grant and James Turk Discuss Gold and The Fed

http://www.goldmoney.com/video/grant-interview.html (30 mins. Video)

James Grant, founder and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer and James Turk (GoldMoney Foundation) discuss the Fed’s history and how ‘mission creep’ has taken it wildly beyond its initial remit, to the point where it is now conducting such experiements as quantitative easing (QE) and a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP).

They talk about who benefits from zero interest rates and how savers are penalised by this easy money policy. They explain how the US has effectively been off the gold standard since 1913, Bretton Woods being only a shadow of the classical gold standard. In the last 40 years low interest rates have encouraged leverage and speculation, which have reached incredible levels.

They discuss the fiscal profligacy of the US government, but note that a solution to America’s debt problem could still be found if the political will existed. US strengths and positive momentum could still be harnessed to save the dollar if people’s eyes could be opened. However, they conclude that every paper currency in history has eventually gone to zero.

James and Jim Grant also talk about ZIRP and the absence of the bond vigilantes after a 30 year bond bull market, and how traders no longer care about fundamentals – like balance sheets – but instead focus on very short-time horizons and the spreads between funding costs and yields. In their view, this situation as unsustainable.

Jim still see gold as a very under-owned, misunderstood and marginal asset that is still shunned by institutional investors, with a few notable exceptions which indicate that the tide could be turning. He see’s the US returning to the gold standard in the future, although timing is always uncertain.

At the end they talk about the history of specie payment resumption in the post-Civil War US, and how there could be parallels between this historical episode and a future return to the gold standard in our day and age. Private alternatives and competing currencies are a possibility; if politicians are too slow to provide solutions the market could do it for them.

Learning Resources

Committee for Monetary Research and Education:http://www.cmre.org/ An interesting website for resources on monetary history, gold, the Fed and economic history.

The books below are designed for home schooling high school students on how economics and markets work. The two books combined have a lesson/lecture combined with examples like newspaper articles illustrating the principles mentioned. Highly recommended for new students to economics and markets.

A Free Market Syllabus: http://library.mises.org/books/Bettina%20Bien%20Greaves/Free%20Market%20Economics%20A%20Syllabus.pdf

A Free Market Reader: http://library.mises.org/books/Bettina%20Bien%20Greaves/Free%20Market%20Economics%20A%20Basic%20Reader.pdf

Interesting Articles

http://www.boilingfrogspost.com/  Losing our liberties

http://mises.org/daily/5999/Capitalist-Vistas-Walt-Whitman-and-Spontaneous-Order

http://mises.org/daily/6011/Did-Bernanke-Prevent-Another-Depression

Robert Higgs on The Government’s Fear and Ratchet Effect

Last night at the NYC Junto, Robert Higgs who is an author, economist and historian spoke about our current situation. In summary, we are on the Titanic. If America’s spending, taxing, regulatory, and entitlement trends do not radically change then expect extremely low to negative real economic growth, more political tension and higher inflation. Nothing has been done to reduce or eliminate risks in the financial system. In fact, banks are more concentrated and the Fed has shown it will intervene in any way possible. Economic and financial uncertainty reigns.

The trend is toward more government control (Obamacare, FEMA, Ignoring/Eliminating the US Constitution, etc.). The government creates the crisis through negative real interest rates which cause massive malinvestment, the economy crashes, then the government blames Wall Street, greedy speculators and the lack of regulation. Then more controls are put in place, the economy slows, more stimulus, a manipulated boom occurs, then an inevitable bust-repeat as necessary.

Expect 1970s markets and inflation. The nominal price of stocks may go up, but the real price won’t. Expect MUCH MORE volatility.

He goes into more detail here:

Lectures:http://mises.org/authors/369/Robert-Higgs

How the government uses to fear to increase its powerhttp://mises.org/daily/1819

http://mises.org/daily/5640/Public-Choice-and-Political-Leadership