The Best Blog for Behavioral Investing and Improving Your Thinking

The best blog for improving your thinking: www.simoleonsense.com.  You will learn about your own psychology and how you think—essential knowledge for becoming a better investor.  The material on this blog has excellent links.

New York Times Article on the Khan Academy

As previously mentioned, the Khan Academy is a great learning resources for you and for kids. Brush up on statistics, for example.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/05/technology/khan-academy-blends-its-youtube-approach-with-classrooms.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=khan%20academy&st=cse

Referred to here:http://csinvesting.org/placing-ev-and-ebitda-into-perspective-case-studies/

A Protest at the Federal Reserve

http://www.newschannel5.com/story/16181894/protestors-disgruntled-with-federal-reserve-bank. Expect many more of these protests as our currency debasement continues.

Attack on the Austrian View of the Great Depression

I like to read theories, thoughts, or facts contrary to what I think is correct. You test your thinking and, God forbid, you could be wrong. The Great Depression will help you understand the biggest business cycle and depression of the past two centuries. Read: mises.org/rothbard/agd.pdf (Copy and paste into your browser.)

An article on the Austrian view of the Great Depression and the criticism of that view: http://mises.org/daily/5826/Defending-the-Austrian-Explanation-of-the-Great-Depression-from-an-Internet-Attack

Planning Curriculum

I will start this week planning the curriculum to study strategic logic while developing the building blocks for valuation, then tying the two together.

QUIZ. Good Learning Resources: Net Nets, Liquidations and Special Situations

Net/Nets, Liquidations and Special Situations

I have a large library on special situation investing and eventually all will be posted or in the value vault. However………

The near-term focus of this blog will be strategic logic and valuation, but I want  investors who are starting their journey to have access to resources for asset-based (non-franchise) investing.

You can learn how to invest just as if you were analyzing a company. Start with the balance sheet and work down from simple to complex.  Cash is a more solid asset than a tax asset, for example.

But as you read the following resources always be thinking as a business person. Ask what is the economic reality of this asset or liability.

QUIZ

Can YOU name a fixed asset on a balance sheet that really is economically the same as a current asset, almost as liquid as cash?  Conversely, can you name a situation where a current asset is less liquid than a typical fixed asset?   Hint: Marty Whitman of Third Avenue Value Fund has preached this lesson often. (see links below).

Please take no more than 20 seconds to answer the first question. Prize: A tip from Jim Cramer on CNBC. C’mon, you can’t expect to win much on such a simple quiz!

This document has several excerpts from Graham, Klarman and Whitman on liquidation values.  A good primer on liquidation analysis.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/74692616/Special-Situation-Net-Nets-and-Asset-Based-Investing-by-Ben-Graham-and-Others

If you are going to pursue asset-based investing then you need to study Marty Whitman. Read his first book (not a breezy read, though)

http://www.amazon.com/Aggressive-Conservative-Investor-Investment-Classics/dp/0471768057/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1323016112&sr=1-1#reader_0471768057

And his shareholder letters: http://www.thirdavenuefunds.com/ta/shareholder-letters-mf.asp

If you are a shareholder or a student you can call his office and ask for his book of shareholder letters: 1990 to 2005.  Highly recommended.

Marty Whitman on value and corporate governance

You can learn from blogs that focus on this type of investing.

My favorites: www.greenbackd.com (excellent. If you read all his posts and analyze past investment ideas you will have a solid grounding in net/nets.)

For podcasts on investing and net/nets from a self-taught investor: www.gannononinvesting.com

Also: http://www.manualofideas.com/blog/

http://www.rationalwalk.com/?p=2472

http://can-turtles-fly.blogspot.com/

Another good overall resource:

http://www.burgundyasset.com/index.asp?Main=FAMinst&Section=Library&SubSection=View&View=normal

A reader kindly offered to share his resources here: http://motiwalacapital.com/blog/

And he suggested viewing these videos and materials: http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/resources/videos.htm

You are on your way………….

Thomas Russo Video Lecture Link

A reader kindly sent this–a Thomas Russo lecture on video. Mr. Russo focuses on stable franchise businesses like tobacco, food and beverage companies.   When I think of him, I hear his quote: “If you want to beat the market, own the S&P without the airlines.”

He is simply trying to buy better-than-average businesses, but I don’t know how focused Mr. Russo is on the price paid.

A video of 94 minutes:

http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu/cis/classrooms/flashplayer/cbsplay.html?video=class_sessions/09s/Greenwald_B8359_U142_2%2026_5%2045_BK_Cam1_33949.flv

Comments welcome.

Test Question: Best Investment over the Past 10 years–Better than Gold, Berkshire, Bonds?

Hint: What are some of the conditions necessary for a great investment?

Hint #2: You are aware of this investment (not obscure).  Most of you will be see this investment if you live in any large town.

Hint:#3: Think with Strategic Logic.

The winner gets a date with Lindsay Lohan.

Answer to be posted tomorrow.

Lose Weight; Eat More Fat. Interesting Blogs…….

Seth Klarman, “An investor must balance arrogance and humility. When you pay 1/8th more than the market for a stock, you are arrogant in believing you know more than the market. At the same time you must have humility to admit you can always be wrong.”

Eat More Fat

If anyone can find scientific evidence against this, I am eager to learn. http://www.marksdailyapple.com/how-to-eat-more-fat/

Blogs of Interest

Interesting valuation discussion of a micro-cap from a deep value investor here: http://greenbackd.com/2011/11/30/guest-post-imation-corp-nyseimn-worth-more-sold-than-alone/

What you do not learn in college: http://www.jamesaltucher.com/2011/11/10-things-i-didnt-learn-in-college/

A good short-seller and stock analyst http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/

Good learning resources: http://compoundingmachines.wordpress.com/ http://www.grahamanddoddsville.net/?page_id=52

http://pragcap.com/

http://www.gannononinvesting.com/

http://turnkeyanalyst.com/blog/

Let me know of others that you like…………

The Fed and Europe

Update on Value Vault

The gnomes are working overtime to upload the 17 videos and other materials. About 2/3rds completed.

Fed Joins Other Central Banks in Monetary Easing  December 01, 2011

“The Federal Reserve and other major central banks moved on Wednesday to help foreign banks more easily borrow and lend money, seeking to forestall a breakdown of global financial markets and giving Europe more time to wrestle with its debts. The latest round of interventions by central banks, including the expansion of an existing Fed program that lets foreign banks borrow dollars at a low interest rate, reflects growing concerns that Europe’s financial problems are hampering growth.” (New York Times)

In light of the Fed’s record, this should fill us all with confidence.

FEE Timely Classic  “‘F’ as in Fed” by Sheldon Richman (www.fee.org) is a recommended blog to learn about economics.

We have a report card on the entire Fed era that strongly supports the view that we’d be better off without it. At the very least, as the authors suggest, the burden of proof is squarely on those who would retain the central bank.

The report card comes in the form of a working paper from the Cato Institute: “Has the Fed Been a Failure?” by George A. Selgin, William D. Lastrapes, and Lawrence H. White.

The authors state in their abstract:

As the one-hundredth anniversary of the 1913 Federal Reserve Act approaches, we assess whether the nation’s experiment with the Federal Reserve has been a success or a failure. Drawing on a wide range of recent empirical research, we find the following: (1) The Fed’s full history (1914 to present) has been characterized by more rather than fewer symptoms of monetary and macroeconomic instability than the decades leading to the Fed’s establishment. (2) While the Fed’s performance has undoubtedly improved since World War II, even its postwar performance has not clearly surpassed that of its undoubtedly flawed predecessor, the National Banking system, before World War I. (3) Some proposed alternative arrangements might plausibly do better than the Fed as presently constituted. We conclude that the need for a systematic exploration of alternatives to the established monetary system is as pressing today as it was a century ago.

The dollar has lost 95 percent of its value since the Fed came into existence.

More on how debasement destroys economies:

http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/government%E2%80%99s-diminishing-benefits-from-inflation/

If Germany and France push the ECB to ease and buy (without sterilization) EZ government securities, markets in Europe will be very strong. If announcements along these lines do not occur, the Euro is history.

For those interested in European Stock Markets: http://www.scribd.com/doc/74371203/European-Stock-Market-Valuation

Update on Value Vault Videos and Materials

Dear Readers & Contributors:

I accidently gave permission to one of you to modify the folder and guess what?All videos and materials got deleted!   This was by accident no doubt.

I have gone and made sure that everyone who has accessed the folder only has permission to VIEW the contents.

But I now have to upload 750MB files – 16 or more of them so it may take several hours (15) before everything is back up. Additional books and pdfs. will be added as well.  Please bear with me.

Also if you or new readers want continuous access to the Value Vault as new material is added then download the free www.yousendit.com app here: http://www.yousendit.com/applications

Then you will be alerted at your desktop whenever there is a change.   This will be like sharing a library where everyone can read whatever book/video is in the vault at any time.

Sorry for this inconvenience but within a day the Value Vault will be replenished.

 

Interesting links….

Michael Burry, the self-taught investor, who shorted sub-prime in the Big Short by Michael Lewis is interviewed here: http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/37453934

Don’t forget a favorite blog: Carl Icahn doing his bidding:http://greenbackd.com/2011/11/28/icahn-bids-for-commercial-metals-company-nysecmc/

A country in collapse (Cuba) where dissidents protest the dual currency system: http://pedazosdelaislaen.wordpress.com/2011/11/29/dissidents-arrested-for-demanding-one-currency/

Placing Europe in perspective: http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2011/11/putting-piigs-debt-into-context.html

Meanwhile guess what the Federal Reserve is busy doing?

M1

M2

MZM

Would investors be surprised by a “melt-up” in nominal values in the stock market?  I am not predicting this, just thinking where the greatest surprise could be.  Beware of US Treasuries.

What the market is paying currently

This is part two for those who valued the mysterious company in the previous post found here: http://csinvesting.org/2011/11/29/what-would-you-pay/

NVS_VL

and NVS_25

Not knowing the company or the price of the stock can keep you clear-headed and away from stories. There is no one right valuation since it depends upon your discount rate. But Buffett said your goal as an investor should be to acquire as many compounding machines at good prices as you can.  I will venture to say that if you can buy 15 to 25 companies with 10% free cash flow yields, steady historical performance with decent (greater than 12%) returns on assets, relatively clean balance sheets, growing 4% to 8%, you will do well over several years.

Nothing is guaranteed, but the odds are against strong, steady and stable companies collapsing while you own them. Some may disappoint but chance favors you.

Now if you look at the company you will hear the stories: pharmaceutical companies are struggling, Europe will collapse, the price has gone sideways for years………….etc., etc.

Find another 19 more of these and you have one heck of a portfolio–IMHO.

Let’s revisit this in two years.

What would you pay?

Buffett said that he likes to thumb though Moody’s Manuals and Value-Lines without looking at the price of the company.

You are sitting today in the library worried about central banks running their printing presses while flipping through your Value-Line when you see this

A company with $5.50 in after-tax free cash-flow.  Sales and cash flows have grown about 9% over the past 10 years and are estimated to continue growing 6% over the next few years. Debt is 15% of total capital.  Ret. On total capital has averaged 14.5% over the past ten years; return on equity has been 15% on average. R&D is 16.5% of sales (above average for its industry). Dividend yield is 4.4% and 42% of net profits. This company is considered one of the strongest in its industry and one of the top companies in the world–well-diversified internationally by geography and product type.

What would you pay per share ball park for this business?   Take no more than 33 seconds.