Tag Archives: Ackman

Internet Boom and Bust; Herbalife and Bill Ackman


Here is the Perhsing Square website on Herbalife. Sign up and learn:

Pershing has their HLF deck up on the website: http://factsaboutherbalife.com/

Verdict: This will get ugly but my money would be on Ackman since there is no competitive advantage, so I would place the value no more than tangible book value at best with no more than a 90 second look at the financials.

The purpose of this post is also to study a Ponzi scheme. The response of the company to Ackman’s research leads me to say this company’s days are numbered.


Could Austrian Business Cycle Theory Dotcom Boom and Bust have helped you as an investor? Buffett’s presentation on the Dotcom Bubble in early 1999 (See page 64) A Study of Market History through Graham Babson Buffett and Others. Note how the market went into a speculative frenzy, rising more than 50% AFTER Buffett’s speech. Human action can’t be predicted like a physics experiment.

An excellent book that predicted the bust was the The Internet Bubble: Inside the overvalue World of High Tech Stocks–and What you Need to Know To Avoid The Coming Shakeout by Anthony Perkins and Michael Perkins (1999 and 2001 editions).

Burning up (cash) http://www.fool.com/news/foth/2002/foth020830.htm

A student’s overview: David Carr – THE TECHNOLOGY STOCK BUBBLE

Ackan presents on Herbalife: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/20/us-ackman-herbalife-idUSBRE8BI1MZ20121220. He says that he will be setting up a website with all his research on Herbalife. If anyone FINDS IT, please send me the link to post. This could become a good case study on multi-level marketing.

Dec. 21 2012 Update: Thanks to a reader: www.businessinsider.com/bill-ackmans-herbalife-presentation-2012-12

See presentation here:Who-wants-to-be-a-Millionaire

See this article:http://seekingalpha.com/article/918831-an-investor-s-guide-to-identifying-pyramid-schemes

Motivate thyself: Anthony Robbins http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cpc-t-Uwv1I&feature=share&list=PL70DEC2B0568B5469.  Yes, he could be a huckster, but he is a great public speaker. Focus on HOW he presents.


Weekend Viewing and Reading


Bubble Film (Documentary Trailer):


The characters in the documentary: Jim Grant, Jim Rogers, and many more… http://thebubblefilm.com/downloads/presskit.pdf

More here: http://www.tomwoods.com/

Who killed Kennedy?

I am not a conspiracy theorist (because the govt. is not competent to pull it off, but this is interesting.


Investing Students

Good articles here for students: http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/

Model of valuing stocks the Buffett way: http://www.aaii.com/computerized-investing/article/valuing-stocks-the-warren-buffett-way

How Morningstar measures moats http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=91441&

One hundred things I have learned while investing (good read): http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/06/29/the-100-things-ive-learned-in-investing.aspx


An investment search process: http://www.jonesvillalta.com/process.php#anchor4

Valuation Models:Copy of Villalta_WebTool_APV and Copy of Villalta_WebTool_FCFE  (see if these make sense to you or ignore)



Investing and Lessons Learned

Investing articles: http://www.gannonandhoangoninvesting.com/


Analysts presenting to HF managers:

Watch MBAs present their value investing ideas to Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman at Columbia GBS: several videos links–just scroll down http://www7.gsb.columbia.edu/valueinvesting/events/pershing

More recordings/videos: Investment Lectures: (2012)http://www7.gsb.columbia.edu/valueinvesting/coursesfaculty/recordings

And even more…… http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/Resources/videos.htm

Shale oil

After decades of rising prices, hostile foreign suppliers and warnings that Americans will have to bicycle to work, the world faces the possibility of vast amounts of cheap, plentiful fuel. And the source for much of this new supply? The U.S.

“If this is true, this could be another dominant American century,” said Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, money managers in Wheaton, Ill.

U.S. natural-gas production is growing 4% to 5% a year, driven by sharply higher shale gas output. Shale gas production is forecast at 7.609 trillion cubic feet this year, up 11.6% from 2011 and 12 times the 2004 level.


Are you a chimp? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_9tZ3aPCFo&feature=relmfu