Tag Archives: Gold

Currency Wars

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And when the money failed in the land of Egypt, and in the land of Canaan, all the Egyptians came unto Joseph, and said, Give us bread: for why should we die in they presence? For the money faileth.” –Genesis 47:15 King James Version

We’re in the midst of an international currency war.” Guido Mantega, Finance Minister of Brazil, Sept. 27, 2010

I don’t like the expression….currency war.” Dominque Strauss-Kahn, Managing Director, IMF, November 18, 2010

Before you sell your stocks, buy gold, and huddle in the basement with your canned food and ammo cans, none of what you read below is inevitable. I post this to make you aware of what is going on and to encourage you to learn about money and credit. Turn off your TV and read.  We may be entering the end of one monetary regime and the beginning of another, though the process may take several years.

The Theory of Money and Credit_Mises plus the STUDY GUIDE to_Money and Credit,   Course Outline by Robert Murphy  and   Mises on Money_Vol_3 by Gary North  and  2012 1Q Mises on Money and Banking Lecture 1 (If enough readers are interested I can put up a folder with audio lectures and notes of each chapter of Mises’ monumental work, The Theory of Money and Credit).  Yes, the book will take careful, multiple readings to fully grasp, but you will have a greater understanding of money and credit than 99.99999% of anyone on Wall Street or Washington, then you can place the world around you in context.

Note that the period from 1971, when President Nixon severed the last anchor to gold, to today is an unusual period in monetary history. Compare these 43 years to the thousands of years where money had some linkage to an object(s) of intrinsic value like gold, copper, or silver. Listen to Nixon’s excuses for his actions–blame the “international speculators” instead of his government’s wildly inflationary policies.

The Book, Currency Wars, The Making of the Next Global Crisis is one that I recommend. See more: http://www.currencywarsbook.com/

The cause of currency wars: http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/james-rickards-paper-gold-or-chaos/71504

A simulated currency war

Not to give away the conclusion, but if we linked the dollar to gold then this might happen: Gold Fair Value

An explanation here:  The Gold Money Index and gold

Our Current Situation (March 2013) James Rickards:

rickards-02242013 and more scenarios: http://youtu.be/4gx4osDMfGw

What does this have to do with today? Warning bells are ringing: Cypriot_Bailout_Sends_Shivers_Throughout_the_Euro_Zone. On the one hand, people should be aware of how banks are inherently bankrupt under today’s current fractional reserve banking system and loss of their savings would teach a lesson. However, to simply change the rules of the game with a sudden theft by bureaucrats devastates savers who may have had nothing to do with the crisis and are the ones whose savings are crucial for the economy. If you think U.S. is different from Cyprus, it’s not. $400B per year goes from depositors to banks via the Fed zero rate policy. See how the Fed devastates poor savers and those on fixed incomes (an important read): Senate-Testimony-Hearing-Rickards-03-28-12

Wake up! SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Asia stocks reacted badly on Monday March 18th to details of a bailout of Cyprus over the weekend — with U.S. stock-index futures and the euro also sharply lower — as investors fretted about the potential implications of a decision to levy private bank deposits.

The Euro Has Brought Central Planning and Destruction

The Euro has succeeded in serving as a vehicle for centralization in Europe and for the French government’s goal of establishing a European Empire under its control—curbing the influence of the German state. Monetary policy was the political means toward political union. Proponents of a socialist Europe saw the Euro as their trump against the defense of a classical liberal Europe that had been expanding in power and influence ever since the Berlin Wall came down. The single currency was seen as a step toward political integration and centralization. The logic of interventions propelled the Euro system toward a political unification under a central state in Brussels. As national states are abolished, the market place of Europe becomes a new Soviet Union.

Read: The Tragedy of the Euro

A Way Out?

Murray Rothbard, the great American Austrian monetary historian and economist suggested: 100_percent Gold Back Dollar Rothbard

The problem of moving to a gold-backed dollar: http://mises.org/daily/5492

Ben Graham knew no country engaged in a currency war ever benefited. His solution, a dollar backed by a basket of commodities:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-28/benjamin-graham-s-clever-idea-for-averting-currency-wars.html

You have about six months of reading if you spend 40 minutes each day tackling the various subjects.  Good luck!

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PS: The ext post I will answer readers’ questions and post a valuation study for beginners.

Thinking Mental Models; What Do Investors Want in a Gold Stock?

Check out: http://thinkmentalmodels.com/

then click on various categories to view other mental models.  You don’t necessarily need to pay $2.99 per PDF, but you can learn more about the particular lesson/mental model.  Become an expert.

How has Nike maintained a moat over the years selling fashion/sporting goods? NKE_VL and NKE_35 Year?

What Do Investors Want in a Gold Stock?

Mark Twain once wrote “A gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar on top.”

http://www.viewfromtheblueridge.com/2009/10/07/a-gold-mine-is-a-hole-in-the-ground-with-a-liar-on-top/

Note that none other than Klarmen of Baupost has an interest in Allied Neveda Gold (ANV).

ANV

 

Worth a read if you ever want to “speculate” in gold mining shares.

What do Investors Want in a Gold Mining Stock

Gold is in a bubble:

pbergn says:

Gold is in a bubble: It is traded vastly as a commodity–subject to the supply/demand rule… At about $1,500 the World demand for gold has flattened. This was a signal that the gold price is moving into the bubble territory… The prices are also driven higher by paper gold, such as ETF’s… The true appreciation percentage can be discerned from gold mining company stock valuations, which are indicative of the actual demand increases and monetary inflation expressed in the US dollars… Those Libertarians or so-called Free-Marketeers who delude themselves with the idea that gold is money are woefully wrong– gold is not money, since one has to exchange it into one of the hard currencies to be able to exchange it for goods and services (try paying a drycleaner or your local grocer with a hunk of gold and see what happens)… The idea that gold will be the only currency left after all fiat ones finally explode in hyperinflation supernova is neither original nor true. The Say’s law on neutrality of money suggests that a currency is as good as many products and services there are in the market that it can be exchanged with. The money is neutral–that is it has no intrinsic value… However in case of gold and other precious metals, they do have intrinsic value as a commodity used in jewelry, electronics and medical industries… Of course, the lion’s share of demand for gold originates as demand for jewelry, especially from the traditional cultures valuing the noble metal as very special, such as in India… However, the demand for gold as a commodity or as a jewelry is inelastic upwards. That means that the demand curve is bell shaped and is bounded from above… At a certain price point, the demand for new gold will proportionally decrease, being compensated by recycling and dilution of content of the items made from it… IMHO, the fair price for an oz of gold today expressed in US dollars is around $1,400 – $1,500 as suggested by flattening demand for the new mined metal as a commodity at that price point.

 

Two Value Investors with an “Austrian” Perspective; Florida Land Booms/Busts

GDXJ

Junior gold mining stocks (GDXJ) vs. the physical gold price (PHYS)

The new global monetary standard, unlimited quantitative easing–Fred Hickey

A thirty minute interview worth hearing. Pay attention to what these value investors say about Austrian (“common-sense”) economics.

http://classicvalueinvestors.com/i/2013/02/mental-insanity-interview-with-bill-fleckenstein/

The Great Florida Land Boom

I love the old pictures and advertisements to take me back to prior booms/busts, but gazing at historical facts won’t help you–other than make you aware that the world can change drastically and suddenly–because you need a proper theory of the trade cycle to understand causality and sequence of events. This might help:Reformulation of ABCT_Salerno

Go back in time and see how the 1920s boom relates to more recent real estate speculation in Florida.

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A short video of Florida Real Estate MALINVESTMENT:

 

 

 

Learning from Other Investors; Buffett Recommends Gold

Learning from other Investors

I grouped several presentations from the Omaha May 6 and 7th Value Investors Conference for easier readingOmaha Value Conference Presentations May 2012.

I suggest that when you read the notes and see the name of a company–then try to download that company’s financials and value it.  Compare your analysis and valuation with the presentations below. Learn why your analysis differs from the presenter. Note Robotti’s presentation on Enerflex, Ltd. and N3’s presentation on SPN. Try your hand at valuing those companies BEFORE you read their analysis.

http://www.marketfolly.com/2012/05/notes-from-value-investing-congress.html

Also Graham and Doddesville Letter from CIMA: http://www.grahamanddoddsville.net/ or Spring 2012

James Montier’s Behavioral Investing Podcast

His talk starts at the 18:30 mark. Note his comments on fin. models and the Fed. http://cfapodcast.smartpros.com/web/live_events/Annual/Montier/index.html

Buffett on Gold

Howard Buffett on the Gold Standard

Buffett on Gold and Economic Lessons from Margaret Thatcher 1990 on the ECB

For Buffett, Coca-Cola is a prime example of the procreative investment, gold the archetypical other. For us, we submit that the chairman has failed to take proper account of today’s unique monetary backdrop. Interest rates are uncommonly low, worldwide monetary policy unprecedentedly easy. No institution under the sun is so procreative as the quantitatively easing central bank. Faster than even the best business can spin cash flow, the Federal Reserve can materialize scrip. What to do about this novel fact is one of the foremost investment questions of our time. (www.grantspub.com March 9, 2012 Vol 30, No. 5)

Buffett discusses gold as an investment asset

From http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf…The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful). Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative. True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end.

What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As “bandwagon” investors join any party, they create their own truth –for a while.

Over the past 15 years, both Internet stocks and houses have demonstrated the extraordinary excesses that can be created by combining an initially sensible thesis with well-publicized rising prices. In these bubbles, an army of originally skeptical investors succumbed to the “proof” delivered by the market, and the pool of buyers – for a time – expanded sufficiently to keep the bandwagon rolling. But bubbles blown large enough inevitably pop. And then the old proverb is confirmed once again: “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.”

OK, I don’t disagree with Buffett on investing in a franchise company that can pass along prices because of its competitive advantage as long as the price you pay is not above value.  Go here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/78158885/Ko-35-Year-Chart to view the 50-year chart of Coca-Cola.  Sales, cash flows, earnings, and dividends rose steadily from 1997, year the price declined for 12 years to 2009. Why?

Back to Buffett, he says when you own one ounce of gold you will only have an ounce of gold instead of cash flow (until sold or exchanged) or earnings. True, but gold is not (in my opinion) an investment but more of a medium of exchange (See The Origins of Money and Its Value http://mises.org/daily/1333). An ounce of gold bought a quality man’s suit 100 years ago and the same is approximately true today. Gold is the reciprocal of fiat currency debasement. Unless the world’s central banks are at a top in currency debasement then picking a top in gold will be foolhardy.

Read, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, to gain perspective on what central banks do when confronted with heavily indebted governments. Print!

Buffett’s other arguments are true regarding bubbles; people go too far. What ends will end. So let’s invert and ask, have we seen the end of rapid currency debasement? Are people’s belief in fiat currency strengthening or weakening. What has changed?

Peter Schiff attacks Buffett in Buffett’s Bursting Bubble: http://lewrockwell.com/schiff/schiff154.html

Thatcher in 1990 Predicting the Crisis in Europe

Margaret Thatcher in 1990 predicts the outcome of the ECB’s policies (No! No! No!): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tetk_ayO1x4&feature=related

Longer clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2f8nYMCO2I

Note how prescient she was. She didn’t really predict, but she did combine human nature, economic law and causality to see what was to come.  Who knew that giving a non-elective body with central control of one currency would lead to Europe’s disaster? A Classic.

The Fed Today

Wayne Angel discusses the Federal Reserve and the European  Central Bank.  Mr. Angel says, “The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board  has the responsibility to be restrained from creating (printing) too much  currency in order to provide price stability and full employment. I ask the reader, “Has a government EVER shown restraint in printing fiat currency? If prices send signals to producers and consumers in how to allocate resources, wouldn’t interfering in the price discovery process to “stabilize” prices only distort capital allocation decisions?

Mr. Angel goes onto to explain the government intervention and folly in the U.S. housing market,”Congress thought that every American had the right to own a house.”  Given that disaster, what has really changed to prevent another calamity? Tick-tock.

http://www.centman.com/VideoAngellConversation12-21-11-Menu.html

Housing Starts

The above chart shows how prices do their work in allocating resources. The decline in housing starts will help being about an improving market for homes for either buying or renting.  Markets do work–even hampered markets.

I try my best not to be reflexively contrary unlike the man in this clip who can only contradict people: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf47iNBt_qg&feature=related

Ben Graham’s Curse on Gold or the Counter-Argument to Buffett’s Attack on Gold

Our Goal as An Investor Is to Maintain THE Purchasing Power of our investments

Ben Graham’s Curse on Gold

By David Galland, Casey Research

It seems that the mainstream investment community only takes a break from ignoring gold to berate it: one of gold’s most outspoken critics, uber-investor Warren Buffett, did so recently in his latest shareholder letter. The indictments were familiar; gold is an inanimate object “incapable of producing anything,” so any investor holding it instead of stocks is acting out of irrational fear.

How can it be that Buffett, perhaps the most successful (and definitely the most well-known) investor of our time, believes that gold has no place in an intelligently allocated investment portfolio?

Perhaps it has something to do with his mentor, Benjamin Graham.

Graham, author of Security Analysis (1934) and The Intelligent Investor (1949), is correctly respected as one of history’s most knowledgeable investors. Over a career spanning 1915 to 1956, he refined his investment theories, in time becoming known as the father of value investing. Much of modern portfolio theory is based upon Graham’s work.

According to Graham, while no one can tell the future, there are periods when the valuations of stocks and bonds would deviate from fair value by becoming excessively over-or-undervalued. To enhance returns and reduce risk, investors should alter their portfolio allocations accordingly. A quick look at a long-term chart supports Graham’s theory clearly shows periods when one asset class offered a better value than the other:

But what of the periods when both stocks and bonds stagnated or fell together? For much of the 1970s and again from 2001 through today, any portfolio allocated solely between stocks and bonds would have at best treaded water and at worst drowned in a sea of stagflation. To earn any real return, an investor would have needed to seek alternatives.

It’s clear from this next chart that gold was exactly that alternative, a powerful counter-trend investment for periods when both stocks and bonds were overvalued. Yet gold is conspicuously absent from Graham’s allocation model.

But this missing asset class is entirely understandable: for most of Graham’s adult life and the most important years of his career, ownership of more than a small amount of gold was outlawed. Banned for private ownership by FDR in 1933, it wasn’t re-legalized until late 1974. Graham passed away in 1976; he thus never lived through a period in which gold was unmistakably a better investment than either stocks or bonds.

All of which makes us wonder: if Graham had lived to witness the two great bull markets in precious metals during the last 40 years, would he have updated his allocation models to include gold?

We can never know.

We can know, however, that given Graham’s outsized influence on investment theory, there is little question that his lack of experience with gold, and therefore its absence from his observations, has had a profound effect on how most investment professionals view the yellow metal. This, in our opinion, goes a long way toward explaining the persistently low esteem in which gold is held by the mainstream investment community. And, as a consequence, its widespread failure to even be considered as an asset class.

A couple of takeaways: first, perhaps now you can stop wondering why your broker, the talking heads in the financial media, and Warren Buffett continue to misunderstand gold as a portfolio holding. More importantly, however, is that in order to have sustained, long-term investment success, one must accept that an intelligent portfolio allocation needs to include not two but three broad categories of investment – stocks, bonds and gold, with the amounts allocated to each guided by relative valuation.

Given the powerful influence of Ben Graham and his disciples, his curse on gold will not go quietly into the night. But it should.

My take: Gold is not an investment; it is simply non-fiat money or gold is the reciprocal of the market’s view of current and future debasement of fiat currencies.

Your thoughts?