Yearly Archives: 2012

Resources for Beginning Value Investors

Below are resources on Value Investing and Behavioral Finance from  http://www.safalniveshak.com/about-safal-niveshak You can also sign up for his free newsletter.  That blog might give beginners a more programmed approach to learning the philosophy of value investing. See for yourself.  For old pros you have probably seen many of the articles below but just in case…..

Benjamin Graham
Conversation with Benjamin Graham
Should Rich But Losing Corporations Be Liquidated
Should Rich Corporations Return Stockholders Cash
Security Analysts Rating
Stock Dividends
Stock Dividends-Part 2
Money As Pure Commodity
Lectures of Benjamin Graham
An Hour With Ben Graham
Stock Market Warning
Valuation of Common Stocks
Valuation of Common Stocks–2
How to Handle Your Money
Interpretation of Financial Statements
The Future of Common Stocks

Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett’s Letters to Berkshire Shareholders
Warren Buffett’s Partnership Letters (1957-70)
Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville
Warren Buffett Letters on Walter Schloss
Warren Buffett on Derivatives
How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor
Security I Like Best
Warning About the Use of Derivatives

Charlie Munger
Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom
Psychology of Human Misjudgment

Seth Klarman
Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group Letters
Who to Blame When the Market Drops
Painful Decision to Hold Cash
Risk and Productive Worrying
Guide to Choose a Money Manager
Why Value Investors are Different
Opportunities for Patient Investors
Notes to Margin of Safety
The Value of Not Being Sure
Lecture on Value Investing at MIT
Risk and “Productive Worrying”

Walter Schloss
Lecture on Value Investing
Factors Needed to Make Money in Stock Market
Experience
Sixty-Five Years on Wall Street

Prof. Sanjay Bakshi
Confessions of a Value Investor
Understanding the Universe of the Unknown and the Unknowable
Archives of Articles & Talks
Fundoo Professor Blog

Miscellaneous
Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable (Richard Zeckhauser)
Seven Immutable Laws of Investing
Flaws of Finance
What Goes Up Must Come Down
Aswath Damodaran Resources
Value Investing and Behavioral Finance
Damodaran on DCF
Why Do Investors Trade Too Much
Behavioral Finance (Tilson)
Are Investors Reluctant To Realise Their Losses
Towards a Science of Security Analysis
The Agile Manager’s Guide to Understanding Financial Statements
What Has Worked In Investing
Measuring The Moat
Why Value Investing Works So Well
The Wisdom of Great Investors
Identifying and Investing In High Quality Small-Cap Companies
Use of Historical Financial Statements to Separate Winners from Losers
Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook
Insights From A Meeting With Mr. Greenblatt
Gannon on Investing
Investment Checklist

Safal Niveshak Book Reviews
The Little Book that Builds Wealth (Pat Dorsey)
Quality of Earnings (Thornton L. O’Glove)
One Up on Wall Street (Peter Lynch)

Quantitative Value Investing Lecture Video; Cartoon Book on Why an Economy Grows

Quantitative Value Investing

Money Ball: To get into the mood of quantitative analysis view these short videos on baseball: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xn7C6jgl0RI and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emwkhGjTWcY

Quant Value Investing: http://greenbackd.com/2012/08/31/presentation-to-uc-davis-mba-value-investing-class-on-quantitative-value-investing/

Also go to www.greenbackd.com

Why an Economy Grows

Thanks to a reader for this cartoon book on how-an-economy-grows

Third Avenue Fund 3Q Letter:TAVF_3Q_2012 Letter

 

Job or Wealth Creation. Economics in One Lesson and More

Economics in One Lesson

I highly recommend reading the book and/or view the video series on each lesson. It is common-sense economics. Many don’t see the secondary effects (a needed skill for investing!) of particular actions. Say you see a government building a bridge across a river–fantastic, you say because we need infrastructure. But what could individuals have done with their money instead? What products or services were foregone to build that bridge? I bet not 1 in 100,000 thinks of that. YOU will.

The Book: economics_in_one_lesson_hazlitt   RECOMMENDED!

Video Series of Economic in One Lesson: http://archive.mises.org/14406/economics-in-one-lesson-the-video-series/

I will pay someone to find a better introductory book on basic, common-sense economics.

Economic Primers:

Intro to Austrian Economics by Taylor

lessons_for_the_young_economist_murphy

Essentials of Economics by Faustino Ballve

A more advanced exposition:Foundations of the Market Price System

If you don’t grasp economic principles (especially micro-economics) then investing successfully will be a Herculean task.

More jobs or wealth?

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/31/business/majority-of-new-jobs-pay-low-wages-study-finds.html?_r=2&hp

August 30, 2012

By CATHERINE RAMPELL

While a majority of jobs lost during the downturn were in the middle range of wages, a majority of those added during the recovery have been low paying, according to a new report from the National Employment Law Project.

The disappearance of mid-wage, mid-skill jobs is part of a longer-term trend that some refer to as a hollowing out of the work force, though it has probably been accelerated by government layoffs.

The overarching message here is we don’t just have a jobs deficit; we have a ‘good jobs’ deficit,” said Annette Bernhardt, the report’s author and a policy co-director at the National Employment Law Project, a liberal research and advocacy group.

The report looked at 366 occupations tracked by the Labor Department and clumped them into three equal groups by wage, with each representing a third of American employment in 2008. The middle third — occupations in fields like construction, manufacturing and information, with median hourly wages of $13.84 to $21.13 — accounted for 60 percent of job losses from the beginning of 2008 to early 2010.

The job market has turned around since then, but those fields have represented only 22 percent of total job growth. Higher-wage occupations — those with a median wage of $21.14 to $54.55 — represented 19 percent of job losses when employment was falling, and 20 percent of job gains when employment began growing again.

Lower-wage occupations, with median hourly wages of $7.69 to $13.83, accounted for 21 percent of job losses during the retraction. Since employment started expanding, they have accounted for 58 percent of all job growth.

The occupations with the fastest growth were retail sales (at a median wage of $10.97 an hour) and food preparation workers ($9.04 an hour). Each category has grown by more than 300,000 workers since June 2009.

Some of these new, lower-paying jobs are being taken by people just entering the labor force, like recent high school and college graduates. Many, though, are being filled by older workers who lost more lucrative jobs in the recession and were forced to take something to scrape by.

“I think I’ve been very resilient and resistant and optimistic, up until very recently,” said Ellen Pinney, 56, who was dismissed from a $75,000-a-year job in which she managed procurement and supply for an electronics company in March 2008.

Since then, she has cobbled together a series of temporary jobs in retail and home health care and worked as a part-time receptionist for a beauty salon. She is now working as an unpaid intern for a construction company, putting together bids and business plans for green energy projects, and has moved in with her 86-year-old father in Forked River, N.J.

“I really can’t bear it anymore,” she said, noting that her applications to places like PetSmart and Target had gone unanswered. “From every standpoint — my independence, my sense of purposefulness, my self-esteem, my life planning — this is just not what I was planning.”

As Ms. Pinney’s experience shows, low-wage jobs have not been growing especially quickly in this recovery; they account for such a big share of job growth mostly because mid-wage job growth has been so slow.

Over the last few decades, the number of mid-wage, mid-skill jobs has stagnated or declined as employers chose to automate routine tasks or to move them offshore.

Job growth has been concentrated in positions that tend to fall into two categories: manual work that must be done in person, like styling hair or serving food, which usually pays relatively little; and more creative, design-oriented work like engineering or surgery, which often pays quite well.

Since 2001, employment has grown 8.7 percent in lower-wage occupations and 6.6 percent in high-wage ones. Over that period, mid wage occupation employment has fallen by 7.3 percent.

This “polarization” of skills and wages has been documented meticulously by David H. Autor, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. A recent study found that this polarization accelerated in the last three recessions, particularly the last one, as financial pressures forced companies to reorganize more quickly.

“This is not just a nice, smooth process,” said Henry E. Siu, an economics professor at the University of British Columbia, who helped write the recent study about polarization and the business cycle. “A lot of these jobs were suddenly wiped out during recession and are not coming back.”

On top of private sector revamps, state and local governments have been shedding workers in recent years. Those jobs lost in the public sector have been primarily in mid and higher-wage positions, according to Ms. Bernhardt’s analysis.

“Whenever you look at data like these, there is this tendency to get overwhelmed, that there are these inevitable, big macro forces causing this polarization and we can’t do anything about them. In fact, we can,” Ms. Bernhardt said. She called for more funds for states to stem losses in the public sector and federal infrastructure projects to employ idled construction workers. Both proposals have faced resistance from Republicans in Congress.  (Editor: More public work means more taxes; more taxes equal less production; and less production equals less wealth).

Dwight R. Lee

Creating Jobs vs. Creating Wealth

Remember the opportunity costs.

January 2000 • Volume: 50 • Issue: 1 •  20 comments

Government policies are commonly evaluated in terms of how many jobs they create. Restricting imports is seen as a way to protect and create domestic jobs. Tax preferences and loopholes are commonly justified as ways of increasing employment in the favored activity. Presidents point with pride to the number of jobs created in the economy during their administrations. Supposedly the more jobs created the more successful the administration. There probably has never been a government spending program whose advocates failed to mention that it creates jobs. Even wars are seen as coming with the silver lining of job creation.

Now there is nothing wrong with job creation. Working in jobs is an important way people create wealth. So the emphasis on job creation is an understandable one. But it is easy for people to forget that creating more wealth is what we really want to accomplish, and jobs are merely a means to that end. (How about having people paid for building sand castles during low tides—infinite work?) When that elementary fact is forgotten, people are easily duped by arguments that elevate creation of jobs to an end in itself. While these arguments may sound plausible, they are used to support policies that destroy wealth rather than create it. I shall consider a few of the depressingly many examples in this column and the next.

Creating Jobs Is Not the Problem

The purpose of all economic activity is to produce as much value as possible with the scarce resources (including human effort) available. But no matter how far we push back the limits of scarcity, those limits are never vanquished. Scarcity will forever prevent us from securing all the things we desire. There will always be jobs to do far more than can ever be done. So creating jobs is not the problem. The problem is creating jobs in which people produce the most value. This is the point of the apocryphal story of an engineer who, while visiting China, came across a large crew of men building a dam with picks and shovels. When the engineer pointed out to the supervisor that the job could be completed in a few days, rather than many months, if the men were given motorized earthmoving equipment, the supervisor said that such equipment would destroy many jobs. “Oh,” the engineer responded, “I thought you were interested in building a dam. If it’s more jobs you want, why don’t you have your men use spoons instead of shovels.”

As I tell my students at the University of Georgia, I will employ every person in our college town of Athens if they’ll only work for me cheaply enough, say a nickel a month. Lower the wage a bit more and I’ll hire everyone in the entire state of Georgia. If I hired workers at those wages, I could make a profit having them build dams with spoons. Of course, the students recognize that my offer is silly since they can make far more working for other employers, which reflects the more important reason my offer is silly: concentrating on the number of jobs ignores the value being created, or not created. More value will be produced in the higher-paying jobs my students can get than in the ones I am offering. A big advantage realized from the wages that emerge in open labor markets is that they attract people into not just any employment, but into their highest-valued employment.

Another advantage of market wages is that they force employers to consider the opportunity cost of hiring workers their value in alternative jobs and to remain constantly alert for ways to eliminate jobs by creating the same value with fewer workers. All economic progress results from being able to provide the same, or improved, goods and services with fewer workers, thus eliminating some jobs and freeing up labor to increase production in new, more productive jobs. The failure to understand this source of increasing prosperity explains the widespread sympathy with destructive public policies.

Dynamiting Our Way to More Jobs

In the 1840s a French politician seriously advocated blowing up the tracks at Bordeaux on the railroad from Paris to Spain to create more jobs in Bordeaux. Freight would have to be moved from one train to another and passengers would require hotels, all of which would mean more jobs. (This proposal was discussed and demolished by the nineteenth-century economist and essayist Frederic Bastiat in Economic Sophisms, pp. 94-95, available from FEE.)

This proposal is even more absurd than my offer to hire people for a nickel a month. At least I would employ workers to produce something of value, rather than to partially undo damage that is inflicted needlessly. Unfortunately, absurdity does not prevent economically destructive policies from being proposed and implemented. Using the jobs-creation justification, politicians commonly enact legislation that increases the effort required to produce a given amount of value.

One of the arguments for restricting imports is that it will create (or protect) domestic jobs. True, it will create some domestic jobs, just as destroying a section of a rail line will create domestic jobs. But also like a break in a rail line, import restrictions make it more costly to obtain valuable products. The only reason a country imports products is that it is the cheapest way to acquire them; it takes fewer workers to obtain the imported products through foreign trade than by producing them directly. In this way trade is like a technological advance, freeing up workers and allowing them to increase the production of goods and services available for consumption. Import restrictions create jobs in the same way dynamiting our railroads, bombing our factories, and requiring that workers use shovels instead of modern earth-moving equipment would create jobs. Always keep in mind that creating jobs is a means to the ultimate end of economic activity, which is creating wealth.

Creating Government Jobs

Because people tend to think of jobs as ends rather than means, they are easily fooled into supporting government programs on grounds that jobs will be created. We have all heard people argue in favor of military bases, highway construction, and environmental regulations on business on these grounds. To justify spending, government agencies commonly perform benefit/cost studies in which the jobs created are counted as benefits. This is like counting the hours you work to earn enough money to buy a car as one of the car’s benefits. The jobs created by a government project represent a cost of the project: the opportunity cost. The workers employed in government activities could be producing value doing something else. The relevant question is not whether a government project creates jobs, but whether the workers in those jobs will create more wealth than they would in other jobs. This is a question advocates of government programs don’t want asked. If it were, there would be far fewer low-productivity government jobs and far more high-productivity private-sector jobs.

A Reader’s Question on BDX

BDX was first mentioned here:http://wp.me/p1PgpH-1c6

Reader: “Should I buy BDX?”

Reply: The penalty for asking this question-the gauntlet: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1BoNgCR8NU

You would be insulted if I told you whom to marry. Why should investing be any different? You have to think for yourself and apply principles through your own skills, interests and the opportunities in front of you today and (perhaps better) tomorrow.

Don’t end up like this (click on 4o second mark): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPV2L2CGWdQ.

Lesson

The lesson with BDX is that sometimes the stable, slow growth franchises with management that has the proper capital allocation plan might be able to generate above market returns for those with weak stomachs.

This is not an earth shattering insight. Look below at BDX compared to the S&P 500. Note the much lower price movement down in 2009 and up in 2009-2012. the company’s results are much more stable and better than the average company.

Look at page 3 in the BDX annual report, BD_2011ar. BDX’s stock price returned 3.66% compounded annually over a five-year period from 2006 compared to the S&P 500.  Will that condition continue? No one can know with 100% certainty, but I am betting my largest risk is boredom.

Note this Morningstar Video on market expectations: http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=566021

Don’t fear nor expect too much. But if you can find an investment with a larger discount to your estimate of intrinsic value or, more likely, you require higher returns, then avoid BDX.

Asking ME whether YOU should buy is absurd. What YOU need to do is develop an investment process that will help you search, find, value and size the best portfolio for yourself. No one can do it for you. It’s a lonely but interesting road.  Embrace it.

Have a Great Weekend!

Free Course, Avoiding Scams and Book Donation: The Asian Financial Crisis (History)

Thanks to a generous, gracious reader who donated this book:

Financial-Crisis-From-Asian-to-Global-2009

For a short synopsis on the 1997 Crisis: http://wiki.mises.org/wiki/1997_Asian_Financial_Crisis

An addition for those who wish to learn from past financial crisis. However, I am a bit skeptical that you–as a student of Rothbard, Mises, Hayek and De Soto–will learn much except how an insider (a central banker) viewed the crisis.  My job is not to censor but to share information that you can accept or reject.

Free Course on the U.S. Constitution

https://constitution.hillsdale.edu/201/Constitution-ENH002-101.

Excellent based on my taking the prior course on the Constitution. You can download the readings then view about 10 lectures each week.

Of Interest

Capital Account: news video/channel on Wall Street news. Learn about high frequency trading (“Mr. Market” on speed!), Wall Street personalities, etc. http://www.youtube.com/user/CapitalAccount

For example: Tips on avoiding financial fraud from a financial fraudster, Eddie Anton. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Egfiqr8TcK8&list=UU8eFERtcxPZ-M3Cxkh7zhtQ&index=13&feature=plcp

http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL17E59801E417CC0E&feature=plcp

Someone begins their investing journey: http://learningvalueinvesting.wordpress.com/2012/08/29/clone/

Why did Lehman and Long-Term Capital Management blow up? (See article on Casino Banking) http://www.thefreemanonline.org/archive/issues/?issue=6&volume=62&Type=Issue

Step 2 as I Move toward Kidney Donation

Good News:

I pass my blood work and now onto other tests.

Good Morning John

Your appt for Tuesday will be as follows:

These first 3 appts will be at ( Transplant Clinic) Make sure when you get in that you are a potential kidney donor and that you have an appt.

@ 8:30AM Dr F transplant nephrologist

@ 9:30AM Dr K transplant surgeon

@ 10:00 M J social worker

@ 2:30 CTA, This is a procedure that will look into your kidneys. This will be at the main hospital at Smillow Cancer Center on the second Floor. I will bring you there.

Before they will do the procedue, they will put an IV on you and give you contrast. Please let me know if you are allergic to dye, shellfish or tape.

Your blood test came back normal.

Buffett’s Alpha, A Research Paper on Buffett’s Returns.

1959: The following ad appeared in the Miami News on January 19, 1959, 19 days after Castro came to power.
1961: Victorious Castro bans elections

Cuba’s prime minister, Dr Fidel Castro, has proclaimed Cuba a socialist nation and abolished elections.

Hundreds of thousands of Cubans attending a May Day parade in the capital Havana roared with approval when their leader announced: “The revolution has no time for elections. There is no more democratic government in Latin America than the revolutionary government.”   –BBC Report

Lesson: Be skeptical of those in power, especially Tyrants.

Buffett’s Alpha: Buffett’s_Alpha_-_Frazzini,_Kabiller_and_Pedersen

Thanks to a reader.

Behavioral Finance; Pop Quiz on BDX

Munger’s Mental Models: http://robdkelly.com/blog/models-frameworks/munger-mental-models/

Lesson-on-Elementary-Worldly-Wisdom-Charlie-Munger

Another Great Blog: http://www.frankvoisin.com/  Search.

All things Montier: http://www.eurosharelab.com/james-montier-resource-page. Follow links to his 2002-2011 papers.

—-

Pop Quiz

Your boss says to put together a conservative portfolio, so naturally you start flipping through the Value-Line which you do religiously each week–glancing at every page of the 250 pages of Value-Line.  You come across BDX_VL.

What two or three things do you notice? for a passing grade what ONE (1) metric should jump out at you!  What pile would you put it–investigate, ignore, potential short?

Many “hedgies” and Wall Street “Analysts” miss this but YOU won’t.

Please keep replies short, two or three sentences at most. Prize emailed to the best response.

Reply:

I wanted to see whether you picked out:

  1. The announced $1.5 billion plan to buy back shares or about 10% of the outstanding shares. Couple that observation with the steady buy back/shrinking of shares with increasing dividend payments. Management is serious about return of capital. They get it. At least they are not empire builders.
  2. The consistent and high ROC of 15% or more over the past 12 years. Note that the business was barely dented in 2008 and 2009. Sales and cash flows rose. This is a stable business in the face of a credit crisis, so demand for their services/products seems inelastic. Good. They probably have pricing power.
  3. The company has debt-say around $5 billion but in light of its steady cash flows and 0.89 debt-to-equity ratio, the company is well-financed. Not the difference in capitalization structure with another slow growth franchise: CLX_VL! Management knows that the company has excess capital and slow growth ahead of it, so capital is being returned to shareholders.
  4. This company is a slow, growth decent business with profitable growth. Probably the moat is not due to proprietary patents. My guess–subject to reading a few years of annual reports and MD&A discussions in the 10-K–is that BDX has a powerful distribution network coupled with some customer captivity.
  5. Nobody addressed why this might be mispriced (assuming that it is)? Note the dotted line that goes up sharply during 2007/2009 then has dropped for the past 3.5 years. The price has gone “nowhere.”  Certainly the stock price has “underperformed” the general market. Why?

Value PER share has been rising and management is set to shrink the share count further at these “reasonable” prices. I can’t say that the current price is attractive for you because of your return requirements. Have reasonable expectations, since I doubt BDX will double in price in the next two years. However, I CAN say, based on the numbers that this company is more stable operationally, generates higher returns than most businesses and near term returns will be driven by return of capital over the next few years, so my risk might be lower–than the average company. Yet, the company is priced at or below a market multiple. Now, even if the long bond Treasury was 6% instead of 2.9%, would this be interesting? Yes.

If I can find 20 to 25 of these companies at moderate discounts (15% to 25%), I might be able to preserve my capital over time.  These stable companies rarely provide steep discounts to intrinsic value, but you have the benefit of profitable growth over time. The price you pay, ironically, has to be more precise than when buying a micro-cap due to the moderate price discount.

Prizes will be emailed out. Thanks. Excellent responses. Please take my grades with a large dose of salt 🙂

Let me know if you enjoyed your prizes:

Gravity: http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=y4znJTziDg4&feature=endscreen

Bad Teacher: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=h6E0Shqba6g&NR=1

Readers’ Questions

Questions from Readers

See’s Candies

My question was in regards toward proving mathematically why it would be appropriate to apply a 3X tangible book value for See’s Candy.

Remember, however, that See’s had net tangible assets of only $8 million. So it would only have had to commit an additional $8 million to finance the capital needs imposed by inflation. The mundane business, meanwhile, had a burden over twice as large – a need for $18 million of additional capital.
After the dust had settled, the mundane business, now earning $4 million annually, might still be worth the value of its tangible assets, or $36 million. That means its owners would have gained only a dollar of nominal value for every new dollar invested. (This is the same dollar-for-dollar result they would have achieved if they had added money to a savings account.)

See’s, however, also earning $4 million, might be worth $50 million if valued (as it logically would be) on the same basis as it was at the time of our purchase. So it would have gained $25 million in nominal value while the owners were putting up only $8 million in additional capital – over $3 of nominal value gained for each $1 invested

How mathematically can you justify paying 3x tangible book value for See’s Candy, I realize they have some pricing power however growth in the candy industry is roughly flat.

Editor: Any smart readers want to have a go at this question?

Some discussion here: http://aliceschroeder.com/forum/topics/analysis-sees-candies and http://aliceschroeder.com/forum/topics/analysis-sees-candies and http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2007/11/15/how-buffett-made-a-killing-in-chocolate.aspx

I will chime in in a few days.

One clue might be this case study on how Buffett analyzed a start-up: Buffett_Case Study on Investment Filters Tabulating Company

Second Question from another reader

Got a question – apologies if you’ve covered this in a post I haven’t gotten to yet.

In examining WM, I see a 16B market cap, 9B in net debt, and 2B in trailing operating income. The TTM earnings yield is therefore 2 / (16 + 9) = 8%.

Check his work here:WM_VL

Now I say to myself, 8% isn’t bad, but I’d ideally like at least 10% – so maybe I’ll wait for a pullback to make the stock a little cheaper. BUT, if you do the math, the stock would actually have to drop a whopping 30% just to move the earnings yield needle from 8% to 10%, due to debt being 1/3 of the enterprise value.

So, do you still continue to use EBIT/EV for companies with a lot of debt, or do you convert to something like EBT/MarketCap? Even if WM’s stock goes to 0, the earnings yield maxes out at 22%!

My reply: No you don’t prostitute your standards. Stick with EV because debt gets paid before equity. You wouldn’t ignore a mortgage debt when buying a house.  WM is basically a slow growth bond.  Too rich for me, but my hurdle rate may be different than yours. But would I rather own WM vs. a US Bond–yes.

Other companies like this might be Paychex, PAYX. High Dividend and slow growth. PAYX_VL. I have owned both WM and PAYX but no longer because I view them as fair value not UNfair value. But you are looking in the right place if you want a sleep at night portfolio.

Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable (Zeckhauser & Buffett’s Reinsurance Bets)

On the day when I left home to make my way in the world, my daddy took me to one side, “Son,” my daddy says to me, “I am sorry I am not able to bankroll you to a large start, but not having the necessary lettuce to get you rolling, instead I’m going to stake you to some very valuable advice. One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you are going to wind up with an ear full of cider.” –Sky Masterson

The Unknown and Unknowable

From David Ricardo making a fortune buying British government bonds on the eve of the Battle of Waterloo to Warren Buffett selling insurance to the California earthquake authority, the wisest investors have earned extraordinary returns by investing in the unknown and the unknowable (UU). But they have done so on a reasoned, sensible basis. The acronym UU refers to situation where both the identity of possible future states of the world as well as their probabilities are unknown and unknowable.

This article may take several readings but you will find that your investing can vastly improve if you understand how to distinguish risk from uncertainty. Click on link here: Investing_in_Unknown_and_Unknowable_Zeckhauser

An EXCELLENT article for advanced investors.

Zeckhauser’s Approach

(from Sanjay Bakshi) Let’s keep this idea – of seeking exposure to positive black swans in mind, and move on to Richard Zeckhauser whose famous essay “Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable”

(http://hvrd.me/b87ESq) is a must-read for all investors.

In this essay, Zeckhauser discusses a few critical things. Let me just list them out.

First, most investors can’t tell the difference between risk and uncertainty.

Risk, as you know from Buffett, is the probability of permanent loss of capital, while uncertainty is the sheer unpredictability of situations when the ranges of outcome are very wide. Take the example of oil prices. Oil has seen US$ 140 a barrel and US$ 40 a barrel in less than a decade. The value of an oil exploration company when oil is at US$ 140 is vastly higher than when it is at US$ 40. This is what we call as wide ranges of outcome.

In such situations, it’s foolish to use “scenario analysis” and come up with estimates like base case US$ 90, probability 60%, optimistic case US$ 140, probability 10%, and pessimistic case US$ 40, probability 30% and come up with weighted average price of US$ 80 and then estimate the value of the stock. That’s the functional equivalent of a man who drowns in a river that is, on an average, only 4 feet deep even though he’s 5 feet tall. He forgot that the range of depth is between 2 and 10 feet.

Let’s come back to what Zeckhauser says on this subject.

Most investors, according to Zeckhauser, whose training fits a world where states and probabilities are assumed to be known, have little idea how to deal with unknowable and treat as if risk is the same as uncertainty.  When they encounter uncertainty, they equate it with risk, and tend to steer clear. This often produces buying opportunities for thoughtful investors who shun risk but seek uncertainty on favourable terms.

Second, Zeckhauser states that historically, some types of unknowable situations – those that Taleb calls positive black swans – have been associated with very powerful investment returns and that there are systematic ways to think about such situations. And if these ways are followed, they can lead you to a path of extraordinary profitability.

One way to think of unknowable situations is to recognise the asymmetric payoffs they offer. The opportunity to multiply your money 10 or 100 times as often as you virtually lose all of it is a very attractive opportunity. So if you have a chance to multiply your money 10 or a 100 times, and that chance is offset by the chance that you can lose all of it in that particular commitment, is a good bet, provided you practice diversification, isn’t it? That’s the power of asymmetric payoffs. So, Zeckhauser’s idea of profiting from unknowable situations is akin to Taleb’s idea of getting exposure to positive black swans.

Third, there are individuals who have complementary skills – they bring something to the table you can’t bring. They get deals you can’t get. An example that comes to mind is the deal Warren Buffett got from Goldman Sachs when he bought the investment bank’s preferred stock on very favourable terms during the financial crisis of September 2008 – a US$ 5 billion investment in Goldman’s preferred stock and common stock warrants, with a 10% dividend yield on the preferred and an attractive conversion privilege on the warrants.

Essentially what Zeckhauser says is that there are people who can get amazing deals – that they have this ability to source these transactions. They have certain skills that allow them to attract such transactions to them – maybe they’ve got capital, contacts, or something in them which a typical investor does not have.  Zeckhauser advises that when the opportunity arises to make a “sidecar investment” alongside such people, you shouldn’t miss it.

For many Indians, sidecar investing can best by understood by remembering that famous scene in the movie “Sholay” in which one sees Veeru driving the mobike and Jai enjoying the free ride in a sidecar attached to the bike. That’s essentially the idea here. The investor is riding along in a sidecar pulled by a powerful motorcycle driven by a man who has complimentary skills. The more the investor is distinctively positioned to have confidence in the driver’s integrity and his motorcycle’s capabilities, says Zeckhauser, the more attractive is the investment. So how do you bring all this together?

Let me summarise.

We talked about Buffett’s idea on risk. We talked about Taleb’s ideas on uncertainty and the need to avoid negative black swans and the need to get exposure to positive black swans. We talked about Zeckhauser’s advice on uncertain and unknowable situations and how to profit from them.  Sure, as value investors, we want exposure to positive black swans. But we are not like private equity investors or venture capitalists. We are far more stingy and risk averse than those people. We want exposure to positive black swans on extremely favourable terms.

But what do we mean by “extremely favourable terms?” Well, that’s where Graham – our fourth role model comes in. Margin of Safety.