Category Archives: Investing Gurus

Education for Millionaires; Book Recommendation for Beginners

An off-beat view on Education

A Video (talk at Dartmouth College) on education of millionaires: http://youtu.be/A26zIO5-Ndk Several good insights for college students, MBAs, and those seeking their calling.

Jobs at Startups: http://workingforwonka.com/

By the way, I tried to form a club for eccentrics, but failed. There is a club in Britain:http://www.eccentricclub.co.uk/

Readings on the failure of American Education: https://mises.org/(S(mrwesouecuedw155nqokwk45))/Literature/Subject/133/Education

A Book Recommendation for Beginners

Foreword to The Value Investors, Lessons from the World’s Top Fund Managers by Ronald Chan. I recommend this book for beginners who want a broad overview of investors who have the necessary mindsets and temperaments to practice value investing (buying bargains).  Experienced pros may already have this knowledge within their grasp. As the author writes, “After becoming a value investor myself, I began to explore the different types of investment valuation methods for sizing up businesses and investment opportunities. At first, I thought that the perfect valuation formula was the holy grail of investment success, but I soon came to realize that this is NOT the case. Instead, it is the right investment mindset, or temperament, that distinguishes the fair-to-good investor from the good-to-great one. …..Value investing is not a staid and old-fashioned investment strategy, but is dynamic and ever-evolving.

Prof Greenwald’s Foreword

Students of investing look for a formula, a way of combining accounting and other information that will produce infallibly good investment results. Even Benjamin Graham, the founder and leading spirit of by far the most successful school of investment practice, spent a good deal of his time looking for such a formula. To this end, students read both technical works and the retrospective testimonies of high performing investors. In both areas, they are largely disappointed.

The technical approaches have a meager record of success. A few notable good books have been written (for example Joel Greenblatt’s You Can be a Stock Market Genius and Graham and Dodd’s Security Analysis). But reported technical investment approaches rarely, if ever, lead to consistent, high-level returns (if they did they would be adopted by everyone and would become self-defeating).

A contrasting view FOR quantitative value investing:Greenbackd-Case-for-Quantitative-Value-Eyquem-Global-Strategy

Investment memoirs generally also disappoint students. They tend to be long on philosophy and short on advice for HOW to buy particular securities. However, as the works of successful investment practitioners, the memoirs do have much to recommend them. They describe, however non-specifically, investment approaches that worked in practice. And they capture an important aspect of investment success: that it depends more on character than on mathematical or technical ability. This is the consistent message of investment memoirs as a group.

The problem is that each memoir presents a unique perspective on the character traits necessary for investment success. Different authors emphasize different characteristics: patience, coolness in a crisis, wide-ranging curiosity, diligence in pursuit of information, independent thought, broad qualitative as opposed to detailed quantitative understanding, humility, a proper appreciation of risk and uncertainty, a long time horizon, intellectual vigor and balance in analysis, a willingness to live outside the herd, and the ability to maintain a consistently critical perspective. Unfortunately, an investor with all these qualities is a rare bird indeed.

That is why Ronald Chan has done such a valuable service in writing this book. He has put together a set of thorough and rigorous portraits of a comprehensive range of notable value investors in a manageably short number of pages. His descriptions cover multiple generations from Walter Schloss and Irving Kahn to William Browne, multiple geographies from Asia to the United States to Europe and the full gamut of value investing styles. By combining descriptions of investment approaches with investor background, he illuminates the connection between individual character and effective investment practice. Taken as a whole, the book provides each practical value investor with the necessary material to sift through the historical records to find the style that is most appropriate to them.

Ronald Chan’s work is an essential starting point for any nascent value investor and an invaluable reference for experienced investors.

From the Author

Q&A on The Value Investors: Lessons from the World’s Top Fund Managers
with author Ronald W. Chan

Why did you decide to write The Value Investors: Lessons from the World’s Top Fund Managers?

As a value fund manager myself, I have never felt that an investment skill set alone is the determining factor in beating the stock market. Rather, it has more to do with one’s temperament and investment philosophy. To learn more about these qualities, I tried to look into the life and career experiences of successful value investors around the world, but was able to find only information on their investment performance or current outlook.

The idea of writing this book emerged with the realization that to truly understand the essence of value investing, I needed to learn more about the career paths and life encounters of its successful practitioners. In 2011 and 2012, I interviewed 12 renowned value investors from different parts of the world. They told me about their personal background and shared their life stories, and in the book I inform readers of why and how they became value investors in the first place and what has made them successful.

Who should read this book?

I believe anyone who is interested in investing and in sensible money management should read this book. As Professor Bruce Greenwald, Director of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing at Columbia University, put it, the book is a good “starting point for any nascent value investor and an invaluable reference for experienced investors.”

It is important to note that the book is not an in-depth analysis of investment theories or formulas. Instead, it tells the life stories of tried and true value investors, who inform us of how they started out and how they became who they are today.

What is the one thing that all of the value investors you interviewed have in common?
They are all curious about the world. They are curious about human psychology, about how businesses function, and about how the world is progressing. In effect, this means that they never stop reading and learning because they always want to know more. By that, I don’t mean that they read romance novels or gossip magazines, but rather useful materials and information that will improve their knowledge and give them an edge when it comes to investment decision making.

People often ask these investors how they generate ideas, and their answer is simply “I read a lot.” Although this answer may not seem helpful on the face of it, idea generation involves more than waking up one day and deciding to look for inspiration. It is important to have a disciplined reading and learning routine, to try to understand the world in a systematic manner, and to synthesize all of the information you have accumulated. Then, inspiration may strike.

From the Inside Flap

Investing legend Warren Buffett once said that “success in investing doesn’t correlate with I.Q. once you’re above the level of 125. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing.”

In an attempt to understand exactly what kind of temperament Buffett was talking about, author Ronald Chan interviewed twelve value-investing legends from around the world, learning how their personal background, culture, and life experiences have shaped their investment mindset and strategy. The Value Investors: Lessons from the World’s Top Fund Managers is the result.

From 106-year-old Irving Kahn, who worked closely with the “father of value investing” Benjamin Graham and remains active today; and 95-year-old Walter Schloss, described by Warren Buffett as the “super-investor from Graham-and-Doddsville;” to Cheah Cheng Hye and V-Nee Yeh, the cofounders of Hong Kong-based Value Partners; and Francisco García Paramés of Spain’s Bestinver Asset Management; author Ronald Chan chose investment luminaries to help him understand the international appeal—and success—of value investing. All of these individuals became strong advocates of the approach despite considerable age and cultural differences. Here, Chan finds out why.

From a reader:

In The Value Investors, readers will also discover how these investors, each of whom has a unique value perspective, have consistently beaten the stock market over the years. Do they share a trait that allows this to happen? Is there a winning temperament that turns the ordinary investor into an extraordinary one? This book answers these questions and much more.

Irving Kahn, age 106, has the distinction of being the oldest living active investment professional. Both he and Walter Schloss, who died this year at the age of 95, were students and later employees of Benjamin Graham, so they have impressive value investing pedigrees. Their first jobs were with Wall Street firms; eventually they founded their own highly successful businesses.

I mention the job history of these two men because I was struck by how relatively late in life (of course, not by Kahn standards) many of the value fund managers interviewed in this book found their true calling. Mark Mobius, for instance, of the Templeton Emerging Markets Group fame, started his career as a business consultant (to be more precise, a consulting research coordinator) in Tokyo, studying consumer behavior in the region, and later founded his own research-oriented business consulting firm. Cheah Cheng Hye, co-founder of Value Partners, the largest asset management company in Asia, worked in journalism for eighteen years before he entered the financial world as a stock analyst.

Other future value fund managers started off in finance but faced a different kind of hurdle. They were hired by firms who were devoted to growth investing. They felt uncomfortable in their jobs, though not necessarily understanding why. It took them some time to realize that they were, for whatever psychological/intellectual reasons, at heart and in mind value investors.

Value investing is in many ways an intellectual no-brainer. It’s smart bargain shopping. You buy a lot of pasta at 50% off because the supermarket messed up its inventory but avoid the strawberries that are on sale because they’re half rotten. Simple enough. On the other hand, value investing is extraordinarily difficult emotionally. You buy a stock that you think is undervalued only to see it become even more undervalued (and that’s if your analysis is correct). You may buy more if you’re self-confident, but you have no external validation. The market is telling you that you got it wrong. And, yes, the market is often right.

The value investors that Chan profiles, all of whom have handily beat their benchmarks, are not a particularly stressed lot. In fact, many of them explain what investing techniques they use (in some cases merely diversification) to be able to sleep soundly at night and avoid stress. I suspect, however, that the real explanation lies not so much in methodology as in personality. It takes a special kind of person to take the inevitable lumps (such as not participating in the dot-com boom) as well as to enjoy the long-term, often slow-grind upside of being a talented value investor.

Chan’s book is a good read. Value investors may make some new international friends. Struggling individual investors may find a style that resonates. And frustrated, antsy twenty-somethings may come to realize that life doesn’t end at thirty.

Videos of Ray Dalio (Global Economics) and Amit Wadhwaney (International Investing) Update on VALUE VAULT

Thanks to www.greenbackd.com/

International Value Investing (TAVF)

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VBGAeJ3eJM&w=560&h=315]

Read his transcript: Amit Wadhwaney TAVF Interview on International Value Investing

Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates on Global Economics

Ray Dalio on International Economics http://www.cfr.org/business-and-foreign-policy/conversation-ray-dalio-video/p28984

Thanks to a reader–Ray Dalio, founder and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, L.P., discusses global economics.

This meeting is part of the Corporate Program’s CEO Speaker Series, which provides a forum for leading global CEOs to share their priorities and insights before a high-level audience of CFR members. The series aims to educate the CFR membership on the private sector’s important role in the policy debate by engaging the global business community’s top leadership.

Update on VALUE VAULT

Don’t panic if you are wondering what happened to the Value Vault. I moved the files. I will place the video files into separate folders and books into other folders. This should make for easier access and better organization. Though I go under the knife within two weeks, this will get done.  Thanks for your patience. An email will go out to all Value Vault key holders with updates.

Buffett Tutorial on Accounting and Valuation: See’s Candies Case Study

I have always maintained that excepting fools, men did not differ much in intellect, only in zeal and hard work.  –Charles Darwin

Value investing works, because it does NOT work ALL the time. –Joel Greenblatt

Today’s post focuses on accounting (GAAP) and valuation through the words of Warren Buffett. The case study on See’s Candies and the other readings will help improve your skills. The burden is on you to understand and apply the lessons. If you do not understand FIFO or deferred taxes, then look up those terms in a basic accounting book, then do problem sets to grasp the concepts. Don’t take Buffett’s words on faith; try to apply the concepts of economic Goodwill to a commodity based company like, for example, US Steel (X) versus a franchise company like Coca-Cola (KO). Do you agree with Buffett’s analysis?

Prof. Joel Greenblatt’s book, The Little Book that Beats the Market, is (simply) an application of Buffett’s thoughts on economic Goodwill.

Helpful hint: Take a subject like share repurchases or divdend policy and try to find many different sources on the subject. Learn the subject to death. Master how, when or if a company should act in returning capital to shareholders.

See’s Candies Case Study:Sees Candies 2012

SUPPLEMENTARY READINGS

A Parable on Valuation: The Old Man and the Tree or a Parable of Valuation

Inflation:Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor and Buffett inflation file

EBITDA: Placing EBITDA into Perspective and TEV to EBITDA Research

Joel Greenblatt: Little Book That Still Beats the Market, The – Joel Greenblatt

Secrets of (view): http://youtu.be/3PShSES5nBc   25 minutes

Corporate Finance

Share Repurchases: Corporate Structure and Stock Repurchases and Assessing Buybacks from all Angles_Mauboussin

Dividends: Dividend Policy, Strategy and Analysis

You will beat Wall Street easily if you apply the above lessons. The hard work is in mastering the material.   Stay the course.

Pray for Cuba; A New Blog (Sanjay Bakshi Interview: Value Investing Made Simpler)

Since I have family and friends living in Cuba, please let me take this moment to send my prayers to them as Tropical Storm Gordon bears down.

Life for the young and most Cubans is brutal under the Crastro brothers’ tyranny. See what Cubans have to say:A Glimpse of Cuba.

Azucar Amargar (Bitter Sugar-Life in Cuba for the young). Watch the first five minutes even if you can’t understand Spanish. A young revolutionary slowly discovers the truth. http://youtu.be/tHPGhgrGq7s

Sanjay Bakshi, A Graham-like Investor in India

http://www.safalniveshak.com/value-investing-sanjay-bakshi-way/

Follow the links for this four-part interview. Go to other links. Good stuff. I am  impressed with the curiosity and diligence of the Indian students and investors that I have been fortunate to meet over the years.

Here is the entire interview:Value-Investing-The-Sanjay-Bakshi-Way-Safal-Niveshak-Special

Learn from the Best: Michael Burry Blog/Letters and More

A self-taught investor, Dr. Michael Burry, has posted a few of his letters on his Scion Capital website: http://www.scioncapital.com/

There is also an aggregator blog that tracks the letters, videos and news of various investors. http://michaelburryblog.blogspot.com/  Look on the right hand side for other blogs.

Thanks to a reader for the heads up.

 

 

 

Do Not Listen to “Experts” or Jim Cramer on Facebook (FB) IPO; Update on VALUE VAULT

Mad Money’s Jim Cramer came out strong on the Facebook IPO, claiming they were “too legit too quit” claiming he had better experience than anyone to call this. Sad day for the Mad Money host, looks like an epic fail.

See Cramer in action: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKJSuBMr4u0

Who is to blame? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSgKV6zJdHs

Cramer, again, takes no responsibility. Surprised?

Avoid “experts”

If you are a beginning investor struggling to find a way to invest then take the above as a lesson on what NOT to do. Make your own mistakes.  Jim Cramer is not an “expert” on Facebook. He did not value the company; he is only there to generate excitement.  Readers of this blog would at least know to figure out what expectations were built into the price of F. Go here: http://wp.me/p1PgpH-PM. High expectations for future growth can be lethal to the share price if those expectations decline. Spend your time reading annual reports in the companies that interest you not watching CNBC.

Analysts’ predictions:http://www.astrocyte-design.com/interests/analysts.html

Prudens Speculari

A further commentary from Prudens Speculari: Social Networking Junk. (Warning: this blogger despises MBAs).

I haven’t touched on the social networking sector in some time so I thought I would today. These gems are really something to behold. The sector is highlighted by Facebook ticker FB. What do you say about this? The chart says it all. The latest news is the sale of a huge whack of stock by insider Peter Thiel.

All the experts out the woodwork now that the horse has left the barn. I especially enjoyed the laughable rant by Jim “any investor who can get shares of Facebook should purchase as many as possible Mad Money 0516/12” Cramer the other day regarding the Thiel sale of stock. Funny how Jim gets lathered by an insider selling out, which by matter of fact is EXACTLY what an IPO is, yet the billion dollar purchase of a NO revenue, NO profit less than 2 yr old startup company Instagram (or Instacam as it should be called) is not concerning? Sadly for the minions who follow the pied piper of hype, the common denominator for Jim Cramer is if things are going up “who gives a shit”, but when things tank, look out cause he’s a scapegoat huntin’.

But it wasn’t just Jim Cramer. The street is full of his ilk. Do you remember these gems.

“I would invest in Facebook, I don’t care what the opening price is”
Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak as part of Facebook pre-IPO hype which should become case study blueprint material for aspiring Wall St. propagandists. So sure Steve, and the rest of us would eat, drink and party like drunken sailors were we worth a couple billion.

“Investors looking to short Facebook stock are getting in front of a freight train”

Needham and Co. senior analyst Laura Martin Wed May 23. 2012 with FB trading around $31-32/share. I didn’t even mention the $40 target she had on the stock. Thank heavens they didn’t let a junior shill, excuse me, I meant analyst near the stock.

Well, the social networking stocks continue to get crushed which is at it should be. Math is math and 2+2=4 no matter how many times a literal army of paid, Wall St. MBA’s tell you it equals 6.

Anyway back on April 23 of this year I had the following posts on twitter regarding some social networks.

“ZYNGA shareholders join GRPN 1’s hope’g 4 an Instagram-esque buyout miracle. Like GRPN, no fraud, simply “growing pains”
That comment about growing pains was from some Wall St. “Henry Blodget-esque’ analyst reassuring the ‘muppets’ that holding the stock that all was well.

“With Wall St. track record sell’g toxic paper I marvel @ the sheep lining up 4 shear’g. IPO shud B renamed ISO. Insiders Selling Out.”
To remind everyone the term ‘muppets’ is how Goldman Sachs fondly refers to its paying clients. I wonder how many Goldman clients out there think, “they can’t be referring to me, gotta be the ‘other clients”

“Don’t forget that other social networking ‘must own’ gem Angies

Update on Value Vault

I finally will have a block of time this weekend to push ahead with reorganizing the material. I know many of you have had troubles getting into the vault. The folders may be over the storage limit for the free accounts. I will speak to customer support this afternoon and find out the issues. Hang in there!

HAVE A GOOD WEEKEND

What is Intrinsic Value? Readings

Intrinsic Value

One, it is the price that you think a rational and well-informed buyer would be willing to pay for the entire company.

It is the amount of cash that you expect if the company liquidated itself and distributed the proceeds to shareholders.

Or it is the present value of the amount of cash that you expect the company to generate over time, doscounted back to the present. That’s it.

And those are all really just different ways of saying  the same thing. An intrinsic value is not a point. It changes over time and it is typically a range of values. Our goal is to try to come up with a reasable value bon what rational people would be willing to pay.  —  Keith Trauner of Goodhaven

Readings

Don’t forget to ask to be on their weekly mailing lists for investing articles and news/events. Just email them to be on their Emailing list.

kessler@robotti.com and sfriedman@gmail.com

—-

Fairholme_Sears Case Study III August 2012     Asset Value CS

Viewpoints Of A Commodity Trader     Excellent!

Goodhaven_2012_08_10_Welling         Ditto!

DrRichardJohnsonAboutTheFatSwitch           Health

Muhlenkamp second qtr

Beyond Buffett_Aug 12

Investment Process–A Goldmine

A Reader’s Investment Process

Investment_Principles_and_Checklists_(Ordway)  (EXCELLENT!)  I hope readers are inspired to create their own like this gentleman. He synthesizes the best material from the great investors and then incorporates their principles into a checklist. This paper is also an excellent review of investment principles. Now the hard part is for YOU to CONSISTENTLY FOLLOW what you know you must do.

Good Reading for Value Investors

Quality of earnings: Earnings_Quality_–_Evidence_from_the_Field

Mark Seller’s Article on Becoming the NExt Buffett: So_You_Want_To_Be_The_Next_Warren_Buffett_–_How’s_Your_Writing_–Sellers24102004   Even the writer, Mark Sellers, who left the investment management business had trouble becoming the “next Buffett.” The volatility of owning one natural gas company help hasten his exit from the business.

A great blog post with links to Charlie Munger’s letters: http://rememberingtheobvious.wordpress.com/2012/08/03/charlie-mungers-wesco-letters-1983-2009/

Enjoy your weekend while I organize the VALUE VAULT.

Value Investors’ Second Quarter Commentaries; Letter to Buffett

Second Quarter Manager Commentaries

WEITZ FUNDS

Weitz_Funds_2Q__2012_Letter_1

Weitz Annual Leter 2012

Weitz Value on Valeant Unique Pharmaceutical Company; owned also by Sequoia

Tweedy BrowneTweedy_Fund_CommentaryQ_2

FPA: crescent-2012-q2-final

Davis Funds: Davis Funds 2011 Annual Report

Third Avenue Funds: TAF 2012 Semi Annual Report and Shareholder Letters  A good read for those interested in asset based investing. Marty discusses corporate finance.

Letter to Buffett

Reisman letter to Buffett  An interesting rebuke to Buffett’s demand to raise taxes on the rich (the result being a punishing loss for poor people due to less capital in the hands of private enterprise to raise productivity) and Buffett’s misunderstanding of his role as an investor in society.

Reisman’s main work: http://mises.org/document/1006/ Capitalism is also in the VALUE VAULT under Austrian Economics

You may disagree but interesting nonetheless.

Bill Nygren’s OakMark: The Flight to Safety

http://www.oakmark.com/

Oakmark and Oakmark Select Funds
6/30/2012

“Big price changes occur when market participants are forced to reevaluate their    prejudices, not necessarily because the world changes that much.”– Hedge fund manager Colm O’Shea as quoted in Hedge Fund     Market WizardsBeing a big fan of Jack Schwager’s Wizard series of     investment books, I eagerly read his newest book, Hedge Fund Market Wizards, and
At Oakmark, we are long-term investors. We attempt to identify growing businesses that are managed to benefit their shareholders. We will purchase stock in those       businesses only when priced substantially below our estimate of intrinsic       value. After purchase, we patiently wait for the gap between stock price       and intrinsic value to close.

was not disappointed. In 1992, shortly after we had started   the Oakmark Fund, I read Schwager’s first book, Market Wizards.  Despite having been in the investment business for over a decade at that point, most of my reading had been about other value managers, so I was   excited about learning from traders who used completely different investment philosophies than we used at Oakmark. It made me feel my age when many of the   managers interviewed in Hedge Fund Market Wizards said how   inspirational it was to read Market Wizards when they were in school!

Like Market Wizards, Hedge Fund Market Wizards is   a compilation of interviews with highly successful money managers. These   managers range from those whose time horizon is measured in minutes to those   who hold positions for years; from those who knew they wanted to invest when   they were back in grade school to those who still aren’t sure investing is   their calling; and from those with impeccable academic credentials to those   without any degrees. But despite their many differences, their similarities   were most striking: good intuitive math skills, intense competitive drive,   strong work ethic, well-defined investment philosophy and disciplined risk   management. And as in Market Wizards, most every chapter discussed   early career struggles followed by the discovery of an investing approach   that better fit the individual’s personality. I find the Wizard books   so thought-provoking because, rather than being just a collection of stories   about past investments, they provide insights into how each manager thinks.

The quote at the top of this letter was one of my favorites   from this book. As value managers, we often explain that we aren’t   forecasting a giant change in the fundamentals of companies we invest in, but   rather we expect the stock price to increase significantly when investors   change how they think about our companies. When we bought Disney, investors were   worried about its theme parks; we were focused on the growth of its most   valuable asset, ESPN. When we bought eBay, investors were worried about its   market share relative to Amazon; we thought PayPal was so valuable that we   were getting its Marketplaces business for free. Today we are focused on the   growth of Dell’s non-PC businesses, whereas investors are worried about   declining sales of PCs, a division we don’t think we are even paying for. In   each case, if we are right, the fundamentals will force investors to   reevaluate their prejudices, and we will profit from the repricing of the   stock.

Investor prejudice can also cause large sectors of the market   to be mispriced. Investors have been taught that large-cap equities tend to   be less risky investments than small-cap equities. Big companies generally   have longer histories and more diversified businesses that combine to produce   less volatile earnings than small companies that are often selling a single   product in a single country. That is why large companies have generally been   lower risk stocks. But in the late 90s, when small technology companies with   excessive valuation premiums displaced big businesses from the large-cap   universe, investors who thought large caps were low risk got a double whammy   – large-cap stocks’ earnings and P/E multiples both declined sharply. The   belief that large cap implied low risk was a prejudice that needed to be   reevaluated – lower risk came from the size of the business, not the size of   its market cap. The world didn’t change that drastically in 2000, but stock   prices did, as investors had to adjust their beliefs. We think that   adjustment has gone too far because today large businesses tend to be priced   at a discount.

Last month I attended the Morningstar mutual fund conference   in Chicago and had a chance to catch up with many of the advisors who have   recommended our Funds. A comment many   of them made was that they believed long-term bonds were way overpriced, yet   they felt forced to own them to lower the risk in their clients’ portfolios.   In our finance courses, we all learned that bonds are less risky than stocks.   Their returns, if held to maturity, are certain, whereas equity returns   remain uncertain regardless of the holding period. But just like we had   relatively little history of large-cap stocks that weren’t large businesses,   we have relatively little history of bond yields being so close to zero.   And when valuations are at extremes, as we believe bonds are today, historical   price volatility might not shed much light on future risk.

The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond today yields about 2.7%. Just   10 years ago, its yield was 5.8%. If five years from now the yield simply   returned to its level of a decade ago (and just in case you think I’m cherry   picking, over the past 25 years it has   averaged a 7.5% yield and at the low in 1981 was twice that), bond investors   would suffer a meaningful loss of capital. The principal of the bond would   decline by 43%, which would swamp the 14% interest income received over five   years, leaving a total loss of 29%. That’s a high price to pay for reducing a   portfolio’s risk level.

Contrast that to the S&P   500, which yields just a fraction of a percent less than the bond and we   expect will grow earnings at about 6% per year for the next five years.   If that growth rate is achieved, the current P/E multiple of 12.9 times would   have to fall to 10 times for the S&P price to stay unchanged. The P/E   would have to fall to about 7 times to match the loss that the bond investor   would sustain if yields reverted to their decade ago level. With a historical   average P/E of about 15 times, a 7 times multiple seems like quite an   outlier.

That’s just a quantitative way to say that we believe   valuation levels today trump the historical analysis of stock and bond   volatility. We believe that investors   who are trying to reduce risk by selling stocks and buying bonds are probably   increasing their risk of losing money. Investors have developed a   prejudice about riskiness of asset classes that ignores valuation levels.   Prices of stocks and bonds will need to change if investors are forced to   reevaluate that prejudice.

I think equity investors are making the same mistake today   when they look to the alleged safety of high-yield stocks. Mike Goldstein of   Empirical Research Partners http://www.empirical-research.com/research.htm has a graph showing that, over the past 60 years,   the 100 highest yielding stocks in the S&P 500 have on average sold at   about three-quarters of the S&P 500 P/E multiple. The high yielders are   typically more mature, slower growth businesses that deserve to sell at a   discount P/E. Effectively, a high yield (D/P) is just the inverse of a low   price-to-dividend ratio (P/D), a cheapness measure similar to a low   price-to-earnings or low price-to-book ratio. Historically, high-yield stocks   have been cheap stocks.

Today’s   high-yield stocks are quite a different story. The 100 highest   yielders in the S&P 500 have a much higher yield than the index – 4.1%   vs. 2.5%. The S&P 500 today sells at 12.9 times expected 2012 earnings.   If the high yielders sold at their 60-year average discount, they would be   priced at less than 10 times earnings. Instead, today’s top 100 yielding   stocks sell at 13.9 times expected earnings, more than a 40% relative premium   to their historic average. The only reason they yield more than the rest of   the S&P is that they pay out so much more of their income – 57% vs. 32%.

Another statistic courtesy of Mike Goldstein is that utility   stocks, a high-yield group I call the most bond-like of all stocks, today   sell for almost the same P/E multiple as the S&P 500. Since 1970, their   average P/E multiple has been about two-thirds of the S&P, and 90% of the   time utility stocks have sold at a larger discount than they do today. We   believe that investors who are now stretching to get more income from their   equity investments are making the same mistake as bond investors – they are ignoring valuation and instead   have a misplaced prejudice that high yields will protect them against loss.

At Oakmark, we aren’t avoiding stocks because they have   above-average yields, but our expectation is that a high yielder is more   likely to be fully priced. We like companies that return capital to   shareholders, rather than just accumulate their excess cash. But unlike the   bias of many of today’s investors, we are just as happy to see that capital   returned through share repurchase as through a large dividend payout. The   result of a share repurchase is the same as if the company paid us a dividend   and we used it to buy more shares. It’s actually a little better because it   defers income tax. Perhaps if the scheduled 2013 tax changes actually become   law and dividends are again taxed at a premium to long-term capital gains,   investors will become more interested in companies that repurchase their own   shares. The world wouldn’t have to change that much for high-payout companies   to lose their luster.
William C. Nygren, CFA
Portfolio Manager
oakmx@oakmark.com
oaklx@oakmark.com

The Oakmark Fund – Holdings
6/30/2012

Equities and Equivalents

% of
Net Assets

1 Capital One Financial

2.7 %

2 Comcast Cl A

2.5 %

3 JPMorgan Chase

2.5 %

4 Oracle

2.4 %

5 eBay

2.4 %

6 FedEx

2.3 %

7 Medtronic

2.3 %

8 Wells Fargo

2.3 %

9 TE Connectivity

2.3 %

10 Time Warner

2.2 %

11 Intel

2.2 %

12 Apple

2.2 %

13 Discovery Comm Cl C

2.2 %

14 Exxon Mobil

2.2 %

15 Omnicom Group

2.1 %

16 MasterCard Cl A

2.1 %

17 Illinois Tool Works

2.1 %

18 Texas Instruments

2.1 %

19 Home Depot

2.0 %

20 Microsoft

2.0 %

21 Merck

2.0 %

22 Unilever

1.9 %

23 Bank of America

1.9 %

24 3M

1.9 %

25 Liberty Interactive Cl A

1.9 %

26 Dell

1.9 %

27 State Street

1.8 %

28 DIRECTV Cl A

1.8 %

29 Cenovus Energy (US shs)

1.8 %

30 Aflac

1.7 %

31 Covidien

1.7 %

32 Parker Hannifin

1.7 %

33 Franklin Resources

1.7 %

34 Goldman Sachs

1.6 %

35 Disney

1.6 %

36 Best Buy

1.6 %

37 Wal-Mart Stores

1.6 %

38 Google Cl A

1.6 %

39 Viacom Cl B

1.6 %

40 Bank of New York Mellon

1.5 %

41 Northrop Grumman

1.4 %

42 Applied Materials

1.3 %

43 Devon Energy

1.3 %

44 Kohl’s

1.3 %

45 Diageo ADR

1.3 %

46 Automatic Data Process

1.2 %

47 Delphi Automotive

1.1 %

48 American Intl Group

1.1 %

49 McDonald’s

1.0 %

50 Aon PLC

1.0 %

51 Boeing

1.0 %

52 Baxter International

1.0 %

53 Harley-Davidson

0.8 %

54 HJ Heinz

0.6 %

Devon Energy (DVN-$58)
Devon is a North American oil and natural gas exploration and production company. The stock has been a poor performer, down from a high of $94 last year and an all-time high of $127 in 2008. With nearly 60% of its reserves in natural gas, Devon is widely perceived to be a gas company, and its stock price has traded down with natural gas prices. However, 80% of Devon’s revenues and over 80% of our business value estimate stem from the company’s oil and liquids business. Based on our estimates, the stock is now trading at just over half of its 2013 asset value. And we are not assuming any oil price recovery in our numbers. An additional reason we are attracted to Devon is the way management allocates capital. It seems that most oil and gas managements have a “bigger is better” mentality. Devon instead focuses on per-share value. In the past two years, Devon has used excess cash to reduce its share base by 10%. Selling at less than 10x expected earnings, at half of estimated asset value, and with a history of repurchasing its shares, we are pleased to add Devon to our portfolio.