Category Archives: Risk Management

NOT a Good Week for Pump and Dump-SNPK

We last discussed the scam, illusion and/or fantasy of SNPK http://wp.me/p1PgpH-E7 and our first mention of this impending disaster was on March 13, 2012:http://wp.me/p1PgpH-E7

Whoops! Not a Good Week for SNPK

Expect to see SNPK trading BELOW (sub 5 cents) at the levels of this other Pump and Dump, NSTR, within the next 12 months. Anybody want to take the other side of that bet?


This post was to keep you abreast as a warning and learning exercise–you don’t have to flush your hard-earned cash away to know that the above “company” exists solely to fleece “shareholders.” How many innocents are saying, “What the F! #$%& happened?” I am sure the SEC will start their “investigation” a year or two after the fleecing. Oh well….

You can learn more about how Pump and Dumps work here: http://www.pennystockresearch.com/snpk-rsrs-ewsi-pump-and-dump-alerts-april-27-2012/

This week we’re exposing these three popular Pump & Dumps: Sunpeaks Ventures (SNPK), Regency Resources (RSRS), and E-Waste Systems (EWSI).

On Pump and Dump Friday, we identify a few of the potentially “bogus” promotions going on in penny stocks today.

If you don’t know how these schemes work, be sure to check out the free report.

Without further ado, here are today’s “disasters waiting to happen”:

Sunpeaks Ventures (SNPK)

For the second week in a row, I have to say “I told you so!”

It’s like shooting fish in a barrel.  The pumpers telegraph their moves so plainly it’s scary!   Last week I told you to watch out for a dead cat bounce and then shares would take another dive…Well they have! 

Have a great weekend and thanks for the generous contributions on advising a reader about transitioning/learning to become a value investor.

Back again on Monday with case study analysis on Kiwi Airlines from Competition Demystified.

RANGO on Risk; Money, Gold, the Fed (James Grant Interview) and Learning Resources

Rango Teaches a Lesson on Risk Management

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKQt5fccVDs&feature=relmfu (1 minute). Watch!

James Grant and James Turk Discuss Gold and The Fed

http://www.goldmoney.com/video/grant-interview.html (30 mins. Video)

James Grant, founder and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer and James Turk (GoldMoney Foundation) discuss the Fed’s history and how ‘mission creep’ has taken it wildly beyond its initial remit, to the point where it is now conducting such experiements as quantitative easing (QE) and a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP).

They talk about who benefits from zero interest rates and how savers are penalised by this easy money policy. They explain how the US has effectively been off the gold standard since 1913, Bretton Woods being only a shadow of the classical gold standard. In the last 40 years low interest rates have encouraged leverage and speculation, which have reached incredible levels.

They discuss the fiscal profligacy of the US government, but note that a solution to America’s debt problem could still be found if the political will existed. US strengths and positive momentum could still be harnessed to save the dollar if people’s eyes could be opened. However, they conclude that every paper currency in history has eventually gone to zero.

James and Jim Grant also talk about ZIRP and the absence of the bond vigilantes after a 30 year bond bull market, and how traders no longer care about fundamentals – like balance sheets – but instead focus on very short-time horizons and the spreads between funding costs and yields. In their view, this situation as unsustainable.

Jim still see gold as a very under-owned, misunderstood and marginal asset that is still shunned by institutional investors, with a few notable exceptions which indicate that the tide could be turning. He see’s the US returning to the gold standard in the future, although timing is always uncertain.

At the end they talk about the history of specie payment resumption in the post-Civil War US, and how there could be parallels between this historical episode and a future return to the gold standard in our day and age. Private alternatives and competing currencies are a possibility; if politicians are too slow to provide solutions the market could do it for them.

Learning Resources

Committee for Monetary Research and Education:http://www.cmre.org/ An interesting website for resources on monetary history, gold, the Fed and economic history.

The books below are designed for home schooling high school students on how economics and markets work. The two books combined have a lesson/lecture combined with examples like newspaper articles illustrating the principles mentioned. Highly recommended for new students to economics and markets.

A Free Market Syllabus: http://library.mises.org/books/Bettina%20Bien%20Greaves/Free%20Market%20Economics%20A%20Syllabus.pdf

A Free Market Reader: http://library.mises.org/books/Bettina%20Bien%20Greaves/Free%20Market%20Economics%20A%20Basic%20Reader.pdf

Interesting Articles

http://www.boilingfrogspost.com/  Losing our liberties

http://mises.org/daily/5999/Capitalist-Vistas-Walt-Whitman-and-Spontaneous-Order

http://mises.org/daily/6011/Did-Bernanke-Prevent-Another-Depression

Buffett Case Study on Buying a Franchise Business

Money is a lot like sex; if you don’t got it, it is all you think about, and if you got it, you think of other things. –The Hobo Philosopher

Buffett Buys a Business

In  honor of the upcoming Berkshire Hathaway Love Fest in Omaha, let’s learn how Buffett analyzes a business. We are taking a short break from our grind through Competition Demystified.

Buffett paid $55 million for 90% of a private business with earnings after tax of $1.5 million.  Do you think he lost his senses?   Can you name the business and year that he bought this business?  What do you think caused Buffett to pay the price that he paid?

Tomorrow or by Wednesday, I will post the analysis of his purchase.

Fraud School: Muddy Waters Research

In a boom fortunes are made; individuals wax greedy and swindlers come forward to exploit that greed–Charles Kindleberger in Manias, Panics, and Crashes

Case Study of Chinese Swindles

I once went to a Yale University Graduate Business Seminar on Investing in Cuba.  After four hours of hearing all the amazing “opportunities” available in Cuba that the students uncovered, I asked, “What return would you require to invest in Cuba?”  A commotion ensued as the calculators whirred and then students cried out, “12%, 15% even 20%.”  “OK” I replied, “If your deal is estimating a 20% annual return, what is your cost of capital now-as I tore up the imaginary contract into tiny pieces and then threw the confetti in the air?”  SILENCE.

By the way, to this day Cuba has defaulted on ALL their TRADE DEBT! What good is a cost of capital calculation with no rule of law? Don’t be a lamb lead to slaughter.

Muddy Waters Fraud School

http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/MW_FraudSchool_20120410.pdf

http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/

Case Study: Stub Stocks or Sum of the Parts Analysis of Loews (L)

If you go to work tomorrow wearing a green shirt and say, “I’m going to win a million dollars today because everyone knows when you wear a green shirt on Tuesdays, you win a million dollars,” your colleagues will grab a giant butterfly net. You’re predicting an outcome that 1.) has no historical precedent and 2.) lacks any rooting in reality. You see that clearly.

Yet every time I (Ken Fisher) talk about history’s role as a powerful tool in capital markets forecasting, inevitably some say, “Past performance is no indication of the future!” Well, that is not why you should look at history. Use history as a laboratory–to understand the range of reasonable expectations. For example, when event X happens, the outcomes are usually B,C or D, but can be anywhere from A to F.  So I know that anything could happen, but odds are greater something like A through F happens, with odds still higher on B, C, and D. And the odds of something outside that range happening is very, very low, so it would take exceptional extra knowledge to bet on something like that happening.  (Source Markets Never Forget, But People Do, Fisher)

Case Study in Valuing a Stub–Loews, Corp (L)

These opportunities can offer (mostly) non correlated returns to the general market. Calculating the price of a stub is relatively straight-forward with publicly traded subsidiaries. These are typically non-franchise companies. Our goal in this case is to find the value of the stub (residual value) versus the market price of the conglomerate and its various subsidiaries. Is there opportunity here? What else would you need to consider?  In a day or two I will post the analysis. To help you, I have posted several readings below this case.

Link to Loews Annual Report and 10-K (2011): http://ir.loews.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=102789&p=irol-index

Readings on Sum of the Parts Analysis and Stub Stocks

Sum of the Parts Conglomerates

Pratte on Liquidation and Creation of Stub Stocks

Stubs Maurece Schiller 1966  Prof. Greenblatt referenced and suggested this book as an example of how long special situation opportunities have existed. Interesting historical examples. Chapter on Stubs.

Leveraged Recaps and Exchange Offers_NYU

Case Study Update on SNPK: How the Scam Works and Who is Behind the Promotion

In the last post on SNPK (SunPeak Ventures) http://wp.me/p1PgpH-z5 we discussed toxic convertibles (“Death Spiral Converts”). Since then, the price has doubled as the email blasts and press releases pour forth, “MASSIVE upmove, ROCKET price rise, TO THE MOON, Next Price targe, $5!” I am missing out on  SPECTACULAR gains!!!  When I went to do my typical company visit, all I found was a P.O. Box on Long Island.

For a more detailed analysis of how the scam works: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=73392869#

In a nutshell, various promoters receive “free” stock and then sell on the price rise as the fools rush in.

SNPK was set up from day one to put shares that cost next-to-nothing into the hands of undisclosed insiders using Panamanian based business entities with hired officers as a front so that these insiders could dump their shares during a paid promotion and make out with millions of dollars in profits.
These Panamanian based business entities have extremely strong links to Eric Van Nguyen’s promotional companies leaving this poster very confident that Eric Van Nguyen and others close to him may really control the shares being held in the name of the anonymous Panamanian based entities.

Awesomepennystocks only wants you to buy SNPK shares so  those Panamanian based entities can sell their shares.  The company started spewing press releases at the same time as the paid promotion started. The company is involved in helping with the insider enrichment scheme.  SNPK sold those shares for pennies to those Panamanian based entities then forward split those shares 45:1 to increase the profits made from the selling of those shares.

The plan is to haul in profits while illegally manipulating the stock through promotional spam and wash trading, eventually leaving a bunch of gullible impressionable bag holders in their wake.  The recently confirmed involvement of the regulators asking questions is probably going to hurt APS’s plans to enact their insider enrichment scheme.  Awesomepennystocks is trying to put a positive spin on things and keep investors from selling their stock before the Panamanian based entities can finish unloading theirs. See below:

Habana Investments got 350,000 shares for $1,750 ($.005/share) which after the forward split became 15,750,000 shares ($.00011/share)

CHP Investments got 350,000 shares for $1,750 ($.005/share) which after the forward split became 15,750,000 shares ($.00011/share)

Verna Thompson got 350,000 shares for $1,750 ($.005/share) which after the forward split became 15,750,000 shares ($.00011/share)
When the original SNPK shell was first set up 8 entities were given 350,000 shares of SNPK for $1,750.

What will happen?

How can this happen? Who will stop this? The price promotion/scam stops when there are no more fools left to sell to then the price will collapse “mysteriously.”

Will the SEC or Attorney General step in to “save” investors from themselves? No, the government is too busy preparing to fence-in its citizens from escaping. Go here:http://www.truthistreason.net/senate-bill-1813-owe-taxes-your-passport-and-travel-is-denied  What is next?  If you owe a parking ticket, then without due process, your passport–after you are stripped searched–will be revoked. If only we had a constitution that was respected. The Sheeple won’t act.

I will continue to report on the on-going saga of SNPK. Who needs entertainment while this unfolds. Like a horror film; you don’t know the precise ending–just that the scene will end badly.

New VIDEOS (2011) of Buffett Lectures and MORE

Beware of geeks bearing formulas.

Chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken.–Warren Buffett

BUFFETT VIDEOS

Buffett on an INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY and the Four Filters in finding investments. He discusses search strategy, valuation and moats. 10 minutes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUba8FGvriM  This will get you started.

A great review of his life and investing principles–Buffett Lecture to UGA Students on July 2011 (1 hour and 20 minutes): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2a9Lx9J8uSs&feature=related

Buffett lectures on Valuation, Moats, and You to Graduate Business School Students in INDIA (101 minutes): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xinbuOPt7c&feature=related

Repeats some of what he said to the University of Georgia students but the interaction with the Indian Students is educational.

If you are hearing Buffett’s lectures for the first time, I STRONGLY suggest you read his writings (The Essays and Lessons of Warren Buffett) FREE here: http://www.monitorinvestimentos.com.br/download/The%20Essays%20Of%20Warren%20Buffett%20-%20Lessons%20For%20Corporate%20America.pdf then go back and hear the lectures again.  Repeat as necessary.

For example, his attack on Beta is instructive for our discussion of skill vs. luck (Yachtman) that we will continue later. See his quote: The fashion of beta, according to Buffett, suffers from inattention to “a fundamental principle: Itis better to be approximately right than precisely wrong.” Long-term investment success depends not on studying betas and maintaining a diversified portfolio, but on recognizing that as an investor, one is the owner of a business. Reconfiguring a portfolio by buying and selling stocks to accommodate the desired beta-risk profile defeats long-term investment success. Such “flitting from flower to flower” imposes huge transaction costs in the forms of spreads, fees and commissions, not to mention taxes.

Charlie Munger

Charlie Munger (2 hour) interview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6RS_PqudxU&feature=related

Joel Greenblatt

Joel Greenblatt interviewed by Steve Forbes on investing–the problems with traditional mutual funds and indexing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PShSES5nBc

James Grant

James Grant’s 2010 Lecture to Darden Students (90 minutes): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-uMM0j2LOc

The Best of Past Value Investing Videos (2 hours and 45 minutes)

Clips from interviews with Walter Schloss, Munger, Buffett, Klarman, and others. A good review and reinforcement of principles.

Part 1 (41 minutes) The best of Value Investing http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGlvLXE82ug

Part 2: (42 minutes) The best of Value Investing: Walter Schloss: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLvEn_tnNIE&feature=relmfu

Part 3: (37 minutes) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0kXOy8LFU8&feature=relmfu

Part 4: (30 minutes): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35u8hoVIguM&feature=relmfu

Part 5: (35 minutes) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-7e_97icWY&feature=relmfu

The Danger of Gurus and Mentors

Beware of your Guru or Mentor; choose wisely (3.5 minutes): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bBe7EwydgA&feature=related

Distressed Investing Value Vault Folder Posted

Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell.–Frank Borman

Distressed Investing Folder

A key has been mailed to all those who have requested keys before. If you did not receive a key, please email ALDRIDGE@AOL.COM with DISTRESSED in the subject heading, and I will send you a key by the next day.  This is a new folder with the following five books. From time-to-time we will add to the books here. Those who have material they think will help investors learn, please share.

These books were donated by Saran, an investor/reader from India.

  1. Bankruptcy__distressed_restructurings.pdf
  2. Buyyout_MBO.pdf
  3. Corporate_Financial_Distress_and_Bankruptcy.pdf
  4. Creating_Value_Through_Corporate_Restructuring.pdf
  5. Distressed_debt_analysis_Moyer.pdf       Excellent!

Funeral Industry Case Studies

If you received the email and you do not want to be on the email list, please reply with DELETE in the subject heading.  Your email will remain private.

Xerox Case Study Analysis

 

To steal ideas from one person is plagiarism; to steal from many is research.–Steven Wright

We discussed the Xerox (XRX) here: http://wp.me/p1PgpH-zH.

Is the company over-leveraged?

You can download my comments here: http://www.yousendit.com/download/M3BsUXVpeFUwMEdLRmNUQw

Our goal is to have you practice skimming through the 10-K to find the critical information for making a particular judgment. There is no clear black or white answer since most investing requires judgment honed by practice and experience.

When determining the appropriate leverage, we have to understand the terms and conditions of the debt as well as the quality/cash flows of the assets being financed by that debt. Segment the different types of financing to gain a clearer understanding of the business and credit risks.

This wasn’t the best example, but the more you practice reading a 10-K the faster you will be able to organize your time.

 

Case Study, Test, and Prize on SPNK–A Fantasy, Scam, or Fraud? Cheer Up and Look on the Bright Side of Life!

If everything seems to be going well, you have obviously overlooked something.–Steven Wright

SPNK: Can you Find the ticking bomb?

Anyone who specifically points out in the documents (see link below) where there is guaranteed devastation for the common shareholders will receive an A+ and an email prize.

If someone has posted a reply in the comments section, try not to read it, and think through the case on your own. Why are we in the world of Penny stocks, pump and dump stock schemes and Mafia-controlled companies–far, far away from our cherished franchises like IBM. Colgate, and Stryker?  Sometimes if you invert, you can learn more about financial statements and human nature.

Skim through the 115 pages and focus on the critical areas. Tomorrow evening I will post my analysis of this document.  The goal is to get you to pick out the danger areas. Obviously, this company has little financial value based on its assets and operations, but what is particularly lethal to any shareholder?

Good luck!

SNPK’s Financials:http://www.scribd.com/doc/85185922/SNPK-Financials

Guess how stocks like SNPK are sold:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zakyg3thfY

http://www.pennystockresearch.com/nsrs-csoc-pump-and-dump-alerts-february-1-2012/

I just received an email alert:

Dear valued subscribers,

SNPK closed at 70 cents today. Getting one step closer to multi dollar territories. We are absolutely confident of the massive potential this pick holds.

If it can just reproduce a fraction of the gains our last pick experienced it would still hit multi dollar levels.

Tomorrow may be one of the last opportunities our members will have to buy SNPK under a dollar.

The company announced this morning that its product, Clotamin, will be sold in about 70 different Discount Drug Mart locations around Ohio. This is on top of the product being available in 9 different states already, and being just picked up by Dakota Drug Inc. for distribution.

Those of you who did buy SNPK a few days ago and are holding are already up a lot.

Those of you who didn’t buy it yet are definitely considering to place an order first thing in the morning.

Do you remember how much our last pick soared? If you had just put $1,000 at our initial alert and and liquidated into near multi dollar levels you could’ve pulled more than $20,000 within 2 months. Not a bad ROI when the S&P returns around 8% a year on avg.

If you invest in anything with 8% return such as the S&P that same $1,000 will take you 40 years to turn into $20,000. As we just mentioned our last pick could have potentially created 40 years’ value in just weeks. Then you could possibly do it all over again with our next pick after it (which in this case is SNPK).

It is already up almost double since our initial alert 4 short days ago. That same gain would take 9 years to produce with the S&P.

The company is in negotiations with a major NBA star to support their products. Let’s stay tuned as this is important information!

SNPK has been steadily climbing every day! Our members couldn’t be happier!

http://www.zdnetasia.com/stock-pump-and-dump-spam-makes-comeback-62301948.htm

Stock pump-and-dump spam makes comeback

                By , ZDNet Asia on September 6, 2011News of the global debt crisis is driving pump-and-dump stock scams in volatile markets, enabling spammers to make profits by artificially “pumping” up stock prices so as to sell cheaply purchased stocks, note a new report by Symantec.Released Monday, the Symantec August 2011 Intelligence Reportrevealed that spammers are seeking to reap from fluctuations in the turbulent financial markets, by sending large amounts of spam related to certain “pink sheets” stocks, in an attempt to “pump” the value of these stocks before “dumping” them at a profit.”Pink sheets” are typically over-the-counter stocks of companies that are not required to submit financial statements to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.”With the world still reeling from the recession, the stock markets are now in turmoil from the increasingly global credit crisis and the specter of a ‘double dip recession’, whereby the [world] economy is expected to again tank after a brief rally,” said Samir Patil, a security researcher at Symantec, in a blog post.According to Paul Wood, senior intelligence analyst at Symantec’s cloud business, scammers can make “substantial profits in a matter of days” with well-executed pump-and-dump spam campaigns. “In the current turbulent environment, many people may be convinced to invest in stocks that scammers claim will benefit from the market turbulence,” he pointed out in a statement.

In a typical pump-and-dump stock scam, spammers promote certain stocks to inflate the price as much as possible so they may then be sold before their valuation crashes back to reality, said Symantec. The spam for these scams tries to convince the prospective investor that the cheap or penny stock is actually worth more than its valuation, or that it will soon skyrocket.

However, most of these claims are misleading or false, the vendor warned in its report.

In a successful campaign, the influx of spam will artificially drive the stock’s price to a point where scammers decide to sell their shares. This usually coincides with them ending the spam campaign, which could reduce interest in the stock, helping to drive the valuation back to its original low price, which could also be exploited in the market.

Most of the pump-and-dump spam originate from the United States and China, while a percentage is being generated from other countries in Asia. The majority of the attacks target North American users, Symantec revealed.

The report also noted a deluge of penny stock spam promoting Resource Exchange of America Corp (RXAC.PK) stocks whereby messages were full of irrelevant line breaks and spaces between words.

The e-mail headers contained broken words such as “Stocks” and “money” with poorly translated non sequiturs throughout the message such as “United States still an AAA country, Obama says?!”.

Other examples of e-mail subjects include “Stocks Ready to Bounce?”, “There is a MASSIVE PROMOTION underway NOW!” and “Been right on the money”.

In order to avoid falling prey to e-mail scams such as pump-and-dump scams, users should create a spam filter, never respond to spam and get multiple e-mail addresses for multiple purposes, Stephanie Boo, regional director for Symantec’s cloud business, advised.

“The Internet world is a borderless one. Today’s volume and sophistication of threat activities have increased substantially and cybercriminals continue to be motivated by financial gains,” she said in an e-mail. “Pump-and-dump scams are just one of the many tactics that cybercriminals leverage to attack consumers and enterprises alike.”

Cheer up and look at the bright side of life

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2Wx230gYJw&feature=related