csinvesting

Michael Price’s Case Study on Hospira HSP) Valuation

Posted on April 8, 2014 | Leave a comment

I wait for large discounts; I look for the growth guys selling to the value guys.”

Video Lecture: http://youtu.be/Nph-sDz1EtA on November 9, 2013 in London.

Thanks to London Value Investor Conference, 22nd May, Featuring Mason Hawkins and Don Yacktman, April 7, 2014 by Tobias Carlisle

SEARCH STRATEGY

Wait for bad news; wait for things (news/events) that can drastically affect the company. Be prepared to act on it. At MFP, we spend all our time determining intrinsic values (“IVs”). Try to lead them. Determine IV beforehand, so you can act quickly when events push prices below IV. The Sell-Side talks about this last quarter. How the hell helpful is that? I don’t think one or two quarter’s matters or even a year’s worth of earnings reports. Understand what MIGHT HAPPEN not what DID HAPPEN.

Get prepared and wait for these opportunities like HSP, today (Nov. 8, 2013) at $32. It will be worth $45 in a year.

Management has said they have fixed problems at the plant, the balance sheet is clean. Management will buy-back stock. The company has $2.00 per share in earnings now and in a year it will have $3 per share. A fifteen multiple (conservative given the business and competing investments) gives you $45.

VALUATION

See:HSP VL

Hospira (HSP) is a manufacturer of generic drugs, a pharmaceutical company. The Federal Drug Administration (FDA) regulates their plants for certain standards of cleanliness and to ensure the bio equivalency of their drugs.

So HSP was earning $3 EPS and was an absolute growth stock that never disappointed Wall Street up until 2010. Earnings were growing at a nice rate.

Then one day, the FDA shuts down one of HSP’s larger plants. The stock opens at $28, down $17 points from $45. So what happens when a company has 200 million outstanding shares and the stock declines 17 points—HSP loses $3.5 billion of market cap. I do not believe it will cost $3.5 billion to fix the plant to FDA’s standards. HSP has 17 plants and the FDA closed only ½ of one plant.

The stock market puts $3.5 billion discount on the bad news from Hospira. The market is OVER-discounting or over extrapolating the bad news (perhaps to ALL of Hospira’s business).

THAT situation—a good company hit with a temporary/fixable problem to go on sale—is what value guys wait for.

HSP was consistently growing, earning $3 EPS and trading at 15 times earnings. It was owned by all the growth guys. So what happens when a stock goes from $45 to $28 or 17 points? The growth guys are selling to the value guys and the value guys, at $28 per share, are saying that the company will be hit now for $1 per share (earning $2.00 per share temporarily) but will be back to $3.00 per share after the company fixes the plant, buys back stock, etc.

It will take two years to get back to earning $3 per share and cost the company about $500 million or a $1 billion to fix the large plant. Meanwhile, the company will earn 50 cents or a $1 less than it would with the plant operating normally ($2.00 to $2.50 per share), but the intrinsic value of the company is about $45 with a 15 multiple on normalized earnings of $3.00 per share that the company should earn once they get religion and run their plants a bit better.

Then the growth guys will come back into the stock and then the value guys sell to the growth guys.

You look for the most down stocks; down 25% to 35%. I look for the growth guys looking to sell the value guys. Ask yourself if the discount is great enough. WAIT FOR BAD NEWS.

Michael F. Price 13F

% of Portfolio as of 12/31/13
Hess Corporation	7.48%
Intel Corporation	6.2%
FXCM INC. CLASS A COMMON STOCK	3.87%
Alleghany Corp.	3.85%
Boston Scientific Corporation	3.1%

See a more detailed Case Study: Case Study Hospira by Price London 2013

and a prior lecture: M PRICE Columbia Lecture Notes_2009 and G&D Spring 2011

A student should listen carefully to the above lecture and try to also value Hess, another company mentioned in his London speech.

Value AMEX during the Salad Oil Scandal (A Great Blog)http://hurricanecapital.wordpress.com/

Momentum Stocks Mauled, A Lesson in ABCT

Posted on April 7, 2014 | 1 comment

Momentum Mauled: http://www.acting-man.com/?p=29724#more-29724

When momentum stocks crack, this is what it feels like: http://youtu.be/go9uekKOcKM

When retail investors blindly buy Yelp, Tesla, Concur Technologies, and IBB, I see:

A reader asked if ABCT was helpful in timing purchases or sales. I don’t believe so, but you see where the canaries are beginning to die in the coal mine. If artificially manipulated interest rates–through the Fed’s manipulating the value of the currency (The Fed monetizes the debt through “quantitative easing” which is just currency debasement/printing up fiat currency)–cause mal-investment, then you would expect to see the first cracks in the most over-valued areas of the market first. Note the collapse of sub-prime in 2007 before the general equity collapse in 2008/09.

Here Ludvig Von Mises(1881 – 1973) explains, “The boom can last only as long as the credit expansion progresses AT AN EVER-ACCELERATED pace. The boom comes to an end as soon as additional quantities of fiduciary media are no longer thrown upon the loan market.” Note that the Fed is “tapering” or buying fewer bonds with newly issued fiat currency. For the boom to continue, the Fed would need to VASTLY INCREASE the monetary madness.

This fractional reserve banking system allows banks to engage in credit creation by issuing notes and bank balances unsupported by any new wealth. Or the Fed simply creates the money out of thin air to purchase Treasury Debt from other individuals and institutions. Since money substitutes are created out of thin air, the whole process is a risky venture. On its face, such a practice would be fraudulent except that it has a legal basis whereby central banks give commercial banks the legal right to issue “counterfeit” money.

All the interference of free market prices by the Fed to lower interest rates just promotes business activity that would be uneconomic at normalized interest rates (read: a higher cost of capital). Can you be surprised when Tesla, Yelp or Pets.com (in 2000) are the first to plunge?

A great blog: http://www.marketanthropology.com/2014/04/a-staggered-start_7.html In the chart above, note the last time in the 1940s when the Fed was monetizing the government’s debt to pay for WWII.

Today:

While perhaps investors and their money are moving here:

1 Comment

Posted in Economics & Politics, History

Tagged ABCT, BBI, GDX, Momentum, Von Mises, WWII

Case Study: Valuing Detour Gold; Industry Map

Posted on April 4, 2014 | 2 comments

A gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar on top–Mark Twain

Industry Map:

Industry Map of the Precious Metals Sector OK, I give myself a D- for effort and appearance but time has been passing so we need to move forward to a valuation of Detour Mines (DRGDF). Please see where Detour is highlighted in my industry map.

A reader was kind to share a brokerage report on the industry: Merrill_Global_Gold and Precious Metals and Gold-Special-Report-Time-to-Mine-2014 (I personally do not spend much time on jewelry demand, etc. because investment demand, in my opinion, drives the price of gold). When you hear that China’s demand for gold is higher per year than annual production and the only reason gold is lower is because of manipulation in the “paper” (Comex/LMBA), think for yourself! Because of the huge stock to flow ratio (190,000 tonnes supply vs. 2,500 annual production) what matters is the NET hoarding (buying) and/or dishoarding (selling) at the current price. Gold doesn’t disappear like wheat, it simply changes hands at a certain/specific price. When silver hit $50 in 1980, Grannies started melting down their silver tea sets to sell into the market.

Try to value Detour Mine with today’s gold price give or take $100 to $200 dollars–the range we have been trading through for the past year. On Monday, I will give a big hint in how you might value Detour, but let’s see if you can spot the obvious, first. Good luck! What prize would folks like for their effort? Money, gold bullion, or a date with my Ex?

Have a Great Weekend!

REMEMBER: It is a long, long way from searching for gold to this:

2 Comments

Posted in Search Strategies, Valuation Techniques

Tagged Detour Gold, Gold Industry, Industry Map, Valuation Case Study

James Grant; Corning the Gold Market; the 1960’s Bowling Bubble

Posted on March 31, 2014 | Leave a comment

James Grant’s speech about the Federal Reserve: http://csinvesting.org/wp-admin/post.php?post=2620&action=edit#

How to corner the gold market: http://www.tavakolistructuredfinance.com/2010/03/corner-gold-market/

The 1960 Bowling Bubble: http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/03/let-the-good-times-roll-the-incredible-bowling-bubble-of-the-1960s/359787/

The Monetary Polaris or Back to the Future (Free Book)

Posted on March 25, 2014 | 5 comments

Free Book: Gold, the Monetary Polaris by Nathan Lewis

I highly recommend this book to understand our current mess and how we can go back to stable money and a prosperous world for all. Before dismissing the idea of a gold standard with thoughts of–there is not enough gold; we tried that before and why gold, we now have Bitcoin–learn first how a gold standard works and then financial and monetary history. Your study will pay huge dividends. Lewis debunks the myth that you need 100% gold-backing for paper money. (See Rothbard’s book, Case for a 100 Percent Gold Dollar)

For a great romp through financial history and the role that gold played: Gold as money Lewis Another great book.

Lewis writes on page 5, “A gold standard system has a specific purpose: to achieve, as closely as is possible in an imperfect world, the Classical ideal of a currency that is stable in value, neutral, free of government manipulation, precise in its definition, and which can serve as a universal standard of value, in much the manner in which kilograms or meters serve as standards of weights and measures.”

The author shows how and why the Classical principle of stable, gold-based money once made Americans wealthy. Why not now?

Stable money along with clear property rights/rule of law and low taxation/regulatory burdens have provided the means for the greatest human prosperity.

View Nathan Lewis’ articles here: www.newworldeconomics.com

Video Lecture published on Feb 18, 2014: Http://Www.Cato.Org/Events/Gold-Monet…

In this sequel to Gold: the Once and Future Money, Nathan Lewis describes the theoretical basis of gold-standard monetary systems. Lewis argues that the pre-1913 world gold standard system was perhaps the most successful monetary system the world has ever seen, enabling high levels of economic growth. Descriptions of both Britain’s economic rise under the gold standard and the United States’ rise to economic prominence under gold are also discussed.

5 Comments

Posted in Economics & Politics, Free Courses, History

Tagged Gold Standard, nathan Lewis, New World Economics

A Reason to be Bullish; Industry Maps

Posted on March 21, 2014 | 3 comments

There is hope for America. We have the lowest energy costs in the world (electricity). See both sides of boom and gloom.

Industry Maps

Gold Industry Map A reader submitted this–giving him a $2,000 prize (Actually, on Amazon New, the book is offered at $3,500).

Measuring_the_Moat_July2013 See page 12 for an example of an Industry Map of the Airline Industry.

Value Investing Program at Columbia University If you still want to learn how to do an industry map, go here and pay $80,000 per year for the value investing program.

I will wait and see if any other readers wish to submit a gold industry map, then next week we move onto valuing a company.

A great interview of a resource investor, Rick Rule. http://www.sprottglobal.com/media/46263/rick_rule_q_a_march_18_2014.mp3

Have a Great Weekend!

3 Comments

Posted in Competitive Analysis

Tagged Economic Revival, Industry Maps, Shale Gas

20 Lesson Course in Value Investing

Posted on March 20, 2014 | 6 comments

The results above of the Fed’s ability to maintain stability of the U.S. Dollar

“Studies of everyday reasoning show that the elephant is not an inquisitive client. When people are given difficult questions to think about—for example, whether the minimum wage should be raised—they generally lean one way or the other right away, and then put a call in to reasoning to see whether support for that position is forthcoming. For example, a person whose first instinct is that the minimum wage should be raised looks around for supporting evidence. If she thinks of her Aunt Flo who is working for the minimum wage and can’t support her family on it then yes, that means the minimum wage should be raised. All done. Deanna Kuhn, a cognitive psychologist who has studied such everyday reasoning, found that most people readily offered “pseudoevidence” like the anecdote about Aunt Flo. Most people gave no real evidence for their positions, and most made no effort to look for evidence opposing their initial positions. David Perkins, a Harvard psychologist who has devoted his career to improving reasoning, found the same thing. He says that thinking generally uses the “makes sense” stopping rule. We take a position, look for evidence that supports it, and if we find some evidence—enough so that our position “makes sense”—we stop thinking.” Course on Plato.

Investing Course

I don’t know the quality of these lessons, but beginners can learn from Sanjay Bakshi’s attitude and approach. Let me know if you find the lessons worthwhile.

http://www.safalniveshak.com/value-investing-sanjay-bakshi-way-2014-part1

Gold Stock Analysis Question

Anyone want to submit an industry map of gold mining company before I do. Best map wins $2,000 prize equivalent (rare investment book).

6 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Government Debt Bubble; Financial History

Posted on March 19, 2014 | 5 comments

In the Land of the Free, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) recently released its 2013 Financial Report of the United States government.

This is the government’s best attempt at an honest accounting of its books. And even though they use a different accounting system that gives them special advantages, the picture is still remarkably bleak.

We all know that the US government has racked up a substantial debt; as of this morning, total outstanding public debt is $17,546,814,482,078.90. ($17.5 trillion)

But it’s not all about the debt. Debt is not necessarily evil… and it’s important to look at the situation qualitatively in addition to quantitatively.

Let’s drop a few zeros and consider this in terms of personal finance.

Assume you had $1.75 million in total debt. That sounds like a lot to most people.

But if you had $3 million in liquid assets to offset the debt, plus $500,000 in annual income to pay interest, living expenses, and just about any contingency that could come your way, you’d be in great shape.

It would be even better if that $1.75 million in debt financed a lucrative real estate investment which was generating a 25% cash-on-cash return for you.

But that’s not the case for the US government.

Despite the Obama administration touting a budget deficit of “only” $680 billion in 2013, the GAO’s more accurate accounting shows a total government cost of $3.8 trillion on total revenue of $2.8 trillion.

In other words– the administration wasn’t exactly honest with the American people– the deficit was more like $1 trillion, not $680 billion. But it gets worse.

The GAO added up ALL the US government’s assets in 2013. Aircraft carriers. The highway system. Land. Cash and financial assets. The total is $2.97 trillion.

The liabilities, on the other hand, total $19.88 trillion. This includes the official public debt, plus all sorts of IOUs and loan guarantees.

This means the net EQUITY of the US government is minus $16.9 trillion.

Moreover, the US government’s cash position is a mere $206 billion… roughly 1.1% of its public debt. This isn’t enough to cover net interest payments for the next year.

Unlike a savvy investor who borrows cheap money to purchase productive assets, the US government borrows money to pay interest.

Quantitatively AND qualitatively, the data point to an inevitable conclusion: despite all the propaganda, this is NOT a risk free environment.

And understanding these trends and consequences is absolutely critical to your long-term financial survival. From: www.sovereignman.com (Simon Black)

A solution? Debtors’ Prisons

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar14/legal-looting3-14.html

A great audio interview of Bob Hoye, a financial historian & money manager, discusses our current situation compared to the past: http://radio.goldseek.com/nuggets/goyette.03.19.14.mp3

5 Comments

Posted in Economics & Politics, History

Is Bitcoin a Scam?

Posted on March 19, 2014 | 9 comments

Bitcoin the PERFECT SCAM

Bitcoin is as a SCAM by design as I have voiced many times over several months in that even when a large percentage of people have their holdings stolen the price is stable enough to continue to entice new entrants into exchanging hard earned fiat currency for bitcoins via the ramblings of the clueless mainstream press, investors who will also at some point lose the value of all of their holdings.

As I have pointed out several times before bitcoin ultimately has a destiny with extinction because in order to continue verifying bitcoin transactions then bitcoin miners need exponentially greater processing power to achieve this, where today a bitcoin miner would need to invest in order of $20,000 to have any hopes of breaking even, costs that looks set to double every year where a decade from now break even mining operations would require an investment of more than $40 million which would imply far fewer mining pools that would in effect OWN the bitcoin craptocurrency and through the block verification process even be able to re-write who owns what.

Ultimately this means that the bitcoin mining will become the sole enterprise for criminal enterprises as no legitimate enterprise would be able to cover the costs of verifying bitcoin transactions (blocks) and thus earning new bitcoins, thus leaving bitcoin mining wholly to criminal gangs operating bot nets in control of millions of infected computers that would each mine fragments that would periodically be harvested by the bot nets.

So bitcoin holders don’t be surprised when you come to open your wallet.dat file that you find it is empty!

Agree/disagree.

Interview of Volcker

http://www.thirdave.com/news/third-avenue-credit-manager-interviews-paul-volcker/

Will the last bear turn out the lights:

http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/3/17/will-the-last-bear-please-turn-out-the-lights.html

9 Comments

Posted in Economics & Politics, History

Tagged bitcoin, srsroccoreport.com

Part 2: Analyzing a Gold Mining Company–Initial Steps

Posted on March 14, 2014 | 3 comments

Mark Twain: “A mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing next to it.”

Initial Steps

We first have to understand the product/market of our gold company. Gold companies produce gold and silver which is money. What is money? Precious metals have exchange value which makes up a large part of their value. You first have to understand the gold market. Note: why did gold go down LESS than other commodities such as oil in the 2008/2009 credit crisis?

You need to draw up an industry map. How? Find out who the participants are.

Start with history: http://www.fgmr.com/gold-mining-stocks-have-outperformed-the-djia.html

BGMI http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/fchart-BGMI.php

QUIZ: What is the best environment to invest in Gold mining equities. Why?

We will circle back to an industry map after you have read about the industry.

What determines the price of gold: http://www.acting-man.com/?p=10251 Also, do a search for gold and/or mining stocks and then read his posts.

The Case For Gold by R Paul

Gold Dollar by Rothbard

Roubini Why Gold Won’t work

Study: www.monetary-metals.com

Gold as collateral: http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2014/02/26/gold-and-reverse-repos/ Also, do a search for gold.

Read free research on gold as money: http://www.myrmikan.com/port/

View all five videos on money: http://hiddensecretsofmoney.com/

Two excellent books: Gold, the Once and Future Money by Nathan Lewis. Also, Gold: The Monetary Polaris by Nathan Lewis.

Gold and inflation: http://www.garynorth.com/public/department32.cfm

The case for gold: http://www1.realclearmarkets.com/2011/11/18/my_thoughts_on_lewis_lehrman039s_gold_standard_120618.html

Understand royalty companies: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1341411-gold-and-silver-royalty-companies-part-1-the-pros-and-cons-of-royalty-companies (read all five parts)

Then read presentations of Royal Gold, Silver Wheaton, Franco-Nevada, Sandstrom from their websites for a good overview of the gold mining market(s).

These sites can get you started. Don’t believe the hype!

www.goldsilverdata.com Also, go to http://youtu.be/VjjLhPqO8bY to view video on valuing gold and silver stocks.

Go to www.youtube.com and search for Jim Grant AND gold, John Doody and mining stocks. Ditto for Brent Cook, Rick Rule. Search for their comments.

That will get you started and then next week, I will post an industry map. Ask questions. In two weeks we will crack a company.

Update March 17, 2014: Discussion of Junior Resource Sector

3 Comments

Posted in Competitive Analysis, Free Courses, Search Strategies, Valuation Techniques, YOU

Tagged gold mining, Industry Analysis

Michael Price’s Case Study on Hospira HSP) Valuation

Momentum Stocks Mauled, A Lesson in ABCT

Case Study: Valuing Detour Gold; Industry Map

James Grant; Corning the Gold Market; the 1960’s Bowling Bubble

The Monetary Polaris or Back to the Future (Free Book)

A Reason to be Bullish; Industry Maps

20 Lesson Course in Value Investing

Government Debt Bubble; Financial History

Is Bitcoin a Scam?

Bitcoin the PERFECT SCAM

Part 2: Analyzing a Gold Mining Company–Initial Steps

subscription

Categories

Do you want the keys to the Value Vault?

Recent Posts

Bitcoin the PERFECT SCAM

subscription

Categories

Do you want the keys to the Value Vault?

Tag Cloud

Recent Posts