Category Archives: Investor Psychology

Valuing a Cyclical Company: Cypress Semiconductor (CY)

Government

Ludwig von Mises:

“Government is in the last resort the employment of armed men, of policemen, gendarmes, soldiers, prison guards, and hangmen. The essential feature of government is the enforcement of its decrees by beating, killing, and imprisoning. Those who are asking for more government interference are asking ultimately for more compulsion and less freedom.” (Mises, Human Action, Chapter XXVII, Part 2)

Murray Rothbard:

“The State is a group of people who have managed to acquire a virtual monopoly of the use of violence throughout a given territorial area. In particular, it has acquired a monopoly of aggressive violence, for States generally recognize the right of individuals to use violence (though not against States, of course) in self-defense. The State then uses this monopoly to wield power over the inhabitants of the area and to enjoy the material fruits of that power. The State, then, is the only organization in society that regularly and openly obtains its monetary revenues by the use of aggressive violence; all other individuals and organizations (except if delegated that right by the State) can obtain wealth only by peaceful production and by voluntary exchange of their respective products. This use of violence to obtain its revenue (called “taxation“) is the keystone of State power. Upon this base the State erects a further structure of power over the individuals in its territory, regulating them, penalizing critics, subsidizing favorites, etc. The State also takes care to arrogate to itself the compulsory monopoly of various critical services needed by society, thus keeping the people in dependence upon the State for key services, keeping control of the vital command posts in society and also fostering among the public the myth that only the State can supply these goods and services. Thus the State is careful to monopolize police and judicial service, the ownership of roads and streets, the supply of money, and the postal service, and effectively to monopolize or control education, public utilities, transportation, and radio and television.” (Rothbard, War, Peace, and the State)

This writer believes government is necessary to protect–through legitimate force–the individual rights and freedoms of its citizens. The rule of law and property rights are essential. The problem occurs when government goes beyond this boundary.

Valuing A Cyclical Company

A few readers have asked about how to value a cyclical company.  Rather than give my view, perhaps listening to how an entrepreneur of a cyclical company views the price and value of his company.

I think you will gain if you read all the materials.

TJ Rodgers Letters to Shareholders about the Stock Price of Cypress: CS on a Cyclical Business or Thinking About Cypress Stock

Also, view the Value-Line to see the company’s history: CY_VL

An industry perspective circa 2002 is presented here: download_t_j__rodgers__cdc_2002_keynote_presentation

Questions and thoughts are encouraged.

A Reader’s Question on Buying FaceBook (FB) Shares

“Where ignorance is bliss, ’tis folly to be wise.” Thomas Gray.

A Reader laments

“My broker bought FaceBook for me, and now I am sucking gas and losing money! What should I do and whom should I sue? Please advise.

My reply: Well, we all make mistakes like the time I asked a psychic for a stock tip or when I bought Cramer’s recommendations the day after the stock price rallied. But I was 8 years old.

Perhaps this Death Therapy would help: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_bxkVFK3Wc

Or–on a more serious note–you might have a psychological issue with a gambling addiction: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZfemmJ7gx0&feature=related and a shrink explains further: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0K5o9xIceU

BEFORE you invest you must be able to answer two questions:

Is this a good business and a good price–a price with a  margin of safety–to pay for the business?  I don’t dismiss Facebook out of hand. I would read the comprehensive S-1:You can find Facebook’s S-1 here to understand Facebook and other media/advertising businesses. Certainly if I owned a newspaper or Google, I would wish to understand Facebook as a business. But the price of $105 billion compared to revenues and profits with all the surrounding publicity leaves me cold with several questions:

  1. What do I know about Facebook that no one else does? I don’t even use Facebook.
  2. How much speculative growth am I paying for? A lot.
  3. Who is on the other side from me on this investment? Mark Zuckerberg, an insider. No edge here.

Finally, looking at popular IPOs for ideas is usually a waste.  Look at busted IPOs a few years later when investors, who have overpaid, sell their shares. The business may be perfectly fine with low debt due to the high-priced equity raise, but the main crime was investment bankers overpricing their merchandise (no surprise).

Whom to blame?

You want to sue your broker? The person to blame is staring back at you in the mirror. Did the broker torture you to buy Facebook shares like in the Spanish Inquisition http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSe38dzJYkY

The investors’ Creed

Instead of saying, “This is my rifle……Say, This is my investment. I will always be rational in trying to solve the two investment questions: good price and good business. I will write down my reasons for buying and what I will do in case I miscalculate or misjudge the business and/or price.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hgd2F2QNfEE&feature=related

Facebook Articles

A value investor discusses Facebook both as a business and as an investment: http://www.gurufocus.com/news/177739/can-a-value-investor-buy-facebook-fb

Another analyst discusses what Facebook should trade for: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebooks-stock-should-trade-for-1380-2012-05-25?link=MW_story_popular

Well, then, what should be the price of Facebook’s stock?

Rather than endlessly rehashing the events that have taken place over the past week, it is this question that investors should be asking. Surprisingly, however, few are doing so.

And yet, courtesy of a just-released study, calculating a fair price for Facebook’s stock isn’t as difficult as it might otherwise seem.

The study is entitled “Post-IPO Employment and Revenue Growth for U.S. IPOs, June 1996–2010.” Its authors are Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida, and two researchers at the University of California, Davis: Martin Kenney, a professor in the Department of Human and Community Development, and Donald Patton, a research associate in that same department. ( Click here to read a copy of their study. )

The researchers found that the revenue of the average company going public in the period analyzed in the study grew by 212% over the five years after its IPO (excluding spinoffs and buyouts). Assuming Facebook’s revenue grows just as fast, and given that the company’s latest-year revenue was $3.71 billion, its annual revenue in five years’ time will be $11.58 billion.

Since Facebook FB -3.39%   is most often compared to Google GOOG -2.01% , let’s assume that its price-to-sales ratio in five years will be just as high as Google’s is currently: 5.51-to-1. You could argue that this is an overly generous assumption, of course. But it nevertheless means Facebook’s market cap in five years will be just $63.8 billion — 30% less than where it stands today.

Assuming that the total number of its shares stays constant, that works out to a price per share of just $23.26 — in contrast to its recent closing price of $33.03.

Ouch.

Actually, however, the news is even worse: No one is going to invest in Facebook shares today if its price will be 30% lower in five years. So, in order to entice someone to invest in it today, Facebook needs to offer a handsome return. Assuming that its five-year return is equal to the stock market’s long-term average return of 11% annualized, Facebook shares currently would need to be trading at just $13.80.

Double ouch.

Don’t like that answer? Try focusing on earnings rather than sales, and you get only a marginally different result. Assuming its profit margin stays constant (instead of falling as it could very well do as it grows), assuming its P/E ratio in five years will be just as high as Google’s is today, and assuming that its stock will produce a five-year return of 11% annualized, Facebook’s stock today should be just $16.66.

How can Facebook investors wriggle out from underneath the awful picture these calculations paint? By assuming that its revenue and profitability will grow faster than the average IPO between 1996 and 2010 — and not just by a little bit, either, but a whole lot faster.

Of course, it’s always possible that Facebook will be able to pull that off.

More Articles

http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/facebook-ipo-fb-aapl-zuckerberg-chan/5/21/2012/id/41129

The Blame Game

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/24/facebook-ipo-high-frequency-trading_n_1544187.html?ref=business&icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk3%26pLid%3D164289

HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY

So What Can You Do With $100?

“And right here let me say one thing:  After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this:  It never was my thinking that made the big money for me.  It always was my sitting.  Got that?  My sitting tight!  It is no trick at all to be right on the market.  You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets.  I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit.  And their experience invariably matched mine – that is, they made no real money out of it.  Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.  I found it one of the hardest things to learn.  But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money.  It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.”  — Jesse Livermore http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/hamilton110303.html

What would you say?

If I said to you RIGHT after the October Stock Market Crash of 1987 when the market fell by more than 500 points in one day: http://wiki.mises.org/wiki/Black_Monday_%281987%29 give me $100 to put into a growing company with a profitable, understandable and focused business, excellent management and prospects, but I will pay 20 times owner earnings for it, would you think about it? But what if I said, “The catch is that you must not sell a single share for 25 years or until 2013. Also, during this time there will be massive stock market booms and busts, a huge credit crisis, wars and uncertainty, There will be periods of 50% to 60% declines in the stock market.  Can you sit tight?

Stay tuned to what happened and is happening….

 

Every Picture Tells a Story–Wall Street “Strategists” Say Sell

Why didn’t they tell me a month ago?

The above is a good example of why you should buy right and hold tight.

SNPK: A Company Visit Goes Horribly Wrong

The “night singer of shares” sold stock on the streets during the South Sea Bubble. Amsterdam, 1720.

I had told readers in previous posts about the pump and dump stock, SNPK (“Sunpeaks Ventures, Inc.) that eighteen months would pass before the stock hit the sub $0.01 level.

But when I saw this:

I was WRONG. SNPK may disappear altogether in a matter of weeks, so to complete this case study, I would visit company headquarters and find out the truth.

My visit to Sunpeak’s HQ: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AzzUjgPHOY.

What I saw gave me a shocked face: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srw3RdiIlrQ. Police cars and yellow crime-scene tape prevented further investigation. This brings the case to a close. Even a 96% drop from the high price of $2.00 a month ago is meaningless. This is an eventual, inevitable $0.00.

Video of a Victim of a Pump and Dump Scheme

2-minute video http://www.fraudcast.ca/docs/Pump_And_Dump_Fraud.php

Refresher Course on Stock Fraud

For those who wish to learn more about this seamy part of the securities market then you can read here:

Microcap stock fraud is a form of securities fraud involving stocks of “microcap” companies, generally defined in the United States as those with a market capitalization of under $250 million. Its prevalence has been estimated to run into the billions of dollars a year. Many microcap stocks are penny stocks, which trade at below $1 a share.

Microcap stock fraud generally takes place among stocks traded on the OTC Bulletin Board and the Pink Sheets Electronic Quotation Service, stocks which usually do not meet the requirements to be listed on the stock exchanges. Some fraud occurs among stocks traded on the NASDAQ Small Cap Market, now called the NASDAQ Capital Market.[4]

Microcap fraud encompasses several types of investor fraud:

  • Pump and dump schemes, involving use of false or misleading statements to hype stocks, which are “dumped” on the public at inflated prices. Such schemes involve telemarketing and Internet fraud.[5]
  • Chop stocks, which are stocks purchased for pennies and sold for dollars, providing both brokers and stock promoters massive profits. Brokers are often paid “under the table” undisclosed payoffs to sell such stocks.[6][7]
  • Dump and dilute schemes, where companies repeatedly issue shares for no reason other than taking investors’ money away. Companies using this kind of scheme tend to periodically reverse-split the stock.
  • Other unscrupulous brokerage practices, including “bait and switch,” unauthorized trading, and “no net sales” policies in which customers are prohibited or discouraged from selling stocks.[8]

Pump and dump scenarios

Pump and dump schemes tend to take place either on the Internet including e-mail spam campaigns or through telemarketing from “boiler room” brokerage houses (for example, see Boiler Room). Often the stock promoter will claim to have “inside” information about impending news. Newsletters that purport to offer unbiased recommendations then tout the company as a “hot” stock. Messages in chat rooms and email spam urge readers to buy the stock quickly.[1]

Unwitting investors then purchase the stock, creating high demand and raising the price. This seemingly “real” rise in prices can entice more people to believe the hype and to buy shares as well. When the people behind the scheme sell their shares and stop promoting the stock, the price plummets, and other investors are left holding stock that is worth significantly less than what they paid for it.

Fraudsters frequently use this ploy with small, thinly traded companies—known as “penny stocks,” generally traded over-the-counter (in the United States, this would mean markets such as the OTC Bulletin Board or the Pink Sheets), rather than markets such as the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ—because it is easier to manipulate a stock when there is little or no independent information available about the company.[2] The same principle applies in the United Kingdom, where target companies are typically small companies on the AIM or OFEX.

A more modern spin on this attack is known as hack, pump and dump.[3] In this form a person purchases penny stocks in advance and then uses compromised brokerage accounts to purchase large quantities of that stock. The net result is a price increase, which is often pushed further by day traders seeing a quick advance in a stock. The holder of the stock then sells his stock at a premium.[4]

During the dot-com era, when stock market fever was at its height and many people spent significant amounts of time on stock Internet message boards, a 15-year-old named Jonathan Lebed showed how easy it was to use the Internet to run a successful pump-and-dump. Lebed bought penny stocks and then promoted them on message boards, pointing at the price increase. When other investors bought the stock, Lebed sold his for a profit, leaving the other investors holding the bag. He came to the attention of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which filed a civil suit against him alleging security manipulation. As is commonly the case in SEC actions, Lebed settled the charges by paying a fraction of his total gains. He neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing, but promised not to manipulate securities in the future.[5]

Enron

As late as April 2001, before the company’s collapse, Enron executives participated in an elaborate scheme of pump-and-dump[6] in addition to other illegal practices that fooled even the most experienced analysts on Wall Street. Studies of the anonymous messages posted on the Yahoo board dedicated to Enron revealed predictive messages that the company was basically a house of cards, and that investors should bail out while the stock was good.[7] Enron had falsely reported profits which inflated the stock price, and then covered the real numbers by using questionable accounting practices. 29 Enron executives sold overvalued stock for more than a billion dollars before the company went bankrupt.[8]

Park Financial Group

In April 2007, the SEC brought charges against Park Financial Group as a result of an investigation into a pump and dump scheme during 2002-2003 of the Pink Sheet listed stock of Spear & Jackson Inc.[9]

Pump and dump spam

Pump and dump stock scams are prevalent in spam, accounting for about 15% of spam e-mail messages. A survey of 75,000 unsolicited emails sent between January 2004 and July 2005 concluded that spammers could make a return of 6% by using this method, while recipients who act on the spam message typically lose 5% of their investment within two days.[10] A study by Böhme and Holz[11] shows a similar effect. Stocks targeted by spam are almost always “penny stocks“, selling for less than $5 per share, not traded on major exchanges, are thinly traded, and are difficult or impossible to sell short. Spammers acquire stock before sending the messages, and sell the day the message is sent.[12]

Chop stocks

A chop stock is an equity, usually trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market, OTC Bulletin Board or Pink Sheets listing services, that is purchased at pennies per share and sold by unscrupulous stock brokers to unsuspecting retail customers at several dollars per share.[9][10]

This practice differs from a pump and dump in that the brokerages make money, in addition to hyping the stock, by marketing a security they purchase at a deep discount. In this practice, the brokerage firm generally acquires the block of stock by purchasing a large block of the securities (usually from a large shareholder who is not affiliated with the underlying company) at a negotiated price that is well below the current market price (generally 40% to 50% below the then-current quoted offer/ask price) or it acquires the stock as payment for a consulting agreement.[11]

The subject stocks usually have little or no liquidity prior to the block purchase. After the block is purchased, the firm’s participating brokers will sell the stock to their brokerage customers at the then-current quoted offer/ask price, to the often victimized investors who are generally unaware of this practice. This large difference, or “spread” between the then-current quoted offer/ask price and the deeply discounted price the block of stock was purchased is almost always shared with the stockbroker at the firm who solicited the trade. For this reason, there is a large benefit and an inherent conflict of interest for the firm and the broker to sell these “proprietary products”.

Because the firm is technically “at risk” on the block of stock (if the price of the stock drops below the price at which the block was purchased, the firm will be at a loss on the stock) and stock is usually sold at or even slightly below the then-current prevailing market price offer/ask, the practice is still legal in the United States. In fact, it is not required that this profit spread be disclosed to the client, since it is not technically a “commission”. When a brokerage house sells such stock from its own inventory, a client will receive a trade confirmation stating the transaction was done as “Riskless Principal” or “Markup”, which in fact, just like commissions, is also revenue to the firm, and such a practice is often subject to abuse. Only the amount of fees charged over and above the offer/ask are commissions, and must be disclosed. But even though it is still legal, it is frowned upon by the Securities Exchange Commission, and they are using other laws and methods of attack to indirectly thwart the practice.

Organized crime involvement

Microcap fraud has been a major source of income for organized crime.[12] Mob figures from each of the Five Families of the New York mafia, as well as the New Jersey mob, have become involved in stock scams.

Mafia involvement in 1990s stock swindles was first explored by investigative reporter Gary Weiss in a December 1996 Business Week article.[13] Weiss later explored the Mafia’s Wall Street scams in a book.[14]

Organized crime elements were believed to have been short-selling chop stocks in the late 1990s.[15]

And Where are We Now? The Market as a Discounting Mechanism

“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”

“People are habitually guided by the rearview mirror and, for the most part, by the vistas immediately behind them.” – Warren Buffett

Legg Mason’s Letter on Current Equity Premiums and Investor’s Views on future Growth Investors current May 2012 expectations for stocks

The Market as a discounting Mechanism

In September 2011, I posted on the bad news cascading in the housing market: http://wp.me/p1PgpH-2g and I posted the link below to show the charts of various home builders’ stocks.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=xhb&time=13&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=9%2F21%2F2011&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=mdc%2Ctol&comp=mdc%2Ctol&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=

320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=

false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=12&x=42&y=24

Behold, the stocks are up about 50% to 100% now that the news is becoming positive. Note the Presentation from Doug Kass:Kass-ValueInvestingCongress-5712 –go to the last three pages to view the need for housing stock.

Home Sales Improving

http://app1.kuhf.org/articles/1337110892-Houston-Home-Sales-Up-10-From-April-2011.html

Economic Blogs

Excellent post on our current economic conditions here: http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/ and http://mjperry.blogspot.com/

Video on Volatility, Buffett Partnership Letters, Blog and Podcast Links

Buffett’s Partnership Letters

A reader alerted me that this blog has no link to Buffett’s original partnership letters. For shame, here they are:

Links to each original letter: http://www.rbcpa.com/WEB_letters/WEB_Letters_pre_berkshireTURNEDOFF.html

Newly typed Consolidated Letters for easier reading (suggested for ease of study)Complete_Buffett_partnership_letters-1957-70_in Sections

Readings and Videos in Economics

http://mises.org/Literature/

http://www.libertyclassroom.com/

Video on Boone Pickens discussing Natural Gas: http://martinkronicle.com/2012/05/02/boone-pickens-pickens-plan-natural/

Developing skills and understanding your own foibles–Trader and Stock Blogs http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/trader_development.htm  Search for topics of interest.  Often trading blogs focus on the psychological aspects of trading since traders make many more discrete decisions than long-term investors, thus trading blogs can be of use to understanding how we make decisions under pressure and uncertainty.

Recent CNBC Munger Interview http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000088395

Podcast on Steve Case’s book, The Indomitable Investor. Why people on main street do not understand how Wall Street works. His main point, “Bad investors think of ways to make money and good investors think of ways not to lose money.” http://martinkronicle.com/2012/04/02/steve-sears-indomitable-investor/

www.greenbackd.com is back posting with great articles on Greenblatt’s Magic Formula and more.

Fascinating 5 minute Video on Stock Market Volatility:

Artemis Capital Management LLC is pleased to present “Volatility at World’s End: Two Decades of Movement in Markets” a unique visualization of implied and realized stock market volatility from 1990 to 2011. The video was originally shown as part of Christopher Cole’s speech at the 2012 Global Derivatives and Risk Management Conference in Barcelona Spain on April 17th.

The movement of stock prices has been an obsession for generations of speculators and traders. On a higher level mathematicians believe that modern markets are an extension of the same fractal beauty found in nature. Visualized these stock markets may take the shape of a turbulent ocean with waves made of human hopes, dreams, greed, and fear. Merging the world of high-finance and high-art Artemis Capital Management LLC is proud to present a creative visualization of stock market volatility over the last two decades.

Volatility at World’s End: Two Decades of Movement in Markets is a depiction of real stock market volatility using trading data from 1990 to 2011. The visuals are designed from S&P 500 index option data replicating the implied volatility wave (or variance swap curve) extending to an expiration of one year. The front of the volatility wave contains the same data used to calculate the CBOE VIX index. The movement of this wave demonstrates changing trader expectations of the future stock market volatility. As the wave moves through time the expected (or implied) volatility surface transforms into a realized volatility surface derived from historical S&P 500 index movement. The transition represents what professional traders call “volatility arbitrage”. The color variation in the volatility waves show the volatility-of-volatility or internal movement of the wave. The track underneath the volatility wave represents underlying S&P 500 index prices.

Volatility at World’s End: Two Decades of Movement in Markets VIDEO (5 minutes) http://www.artemiscm.com/research/volitility-at-worlds-end-two-decades-of-movement-in-markets/

SNPK has ANOTHER bad week, KIWI and Polaroid/Kodak Case Studies; Mastery

Another blood bath for “shareholders”

The saga continues as the scam/promotion unwinds inevitably. The fascinating aspect of this study is how the boom bust cycle of SNPK looks similar to the

NASDAQ’s boom/bust cycle of 1993 to 2002.

Note the rise from 1992, then accelerated rise in 1998 to mid-2000 that reached a crescendo and then the collapse in price in 2000/2002–leading to the slow decline as frustrated and stubborn investors throw in the towel. But in the case of SNPK, since it is a promote, there will be no rebirth–just a quote of $0 bid and $.000001 offer by next year.

NASDAQ

Case Studies

This week has been hectic as you can see from this video of my research team at work:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pblj3JHF-Jo.

My next posts on Monday or Tuesday will be on the analysis of our two cases studies in Competition Demystified (Chapters 12 and 13)

Anyone want a crack first?

Chapter 12: Fear of Not Flying: Kiwi Enters the Airline Industry

  1. Describe Kiwi’s entry strategy and explain why it was initially successful. Where did they go wrong and why?
  2. What is the evidence that there were no existing barriers to entry in the airline industry in the 1980s?

Kiwi Airlines CS

Chapter 13: No Instant Gratification: Kodak Takes on Polaroid.

  1. Detail Polaroid’s competitive advantages in the instant photography market.
  2. What were Polaroid’s responses to Kodak’s launch into the instant photography market?
  3. Was there an alternative approach for Kodak that might have been more successful?
  4. If you were running Kodak in the 1970s, what strategy would you have followed—given all the benefits of hindsight?

Kodak vs Polaroid CS

Mastery

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpDdaC1_UGg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyRZMj8mkm4&feature=related

What can you apply to the world of investing?

Have a Great Weekend!

Nigerian Email Scams

Gee, I wonder why no one ever claims their Nigerian lottery winnings?

There is a sucker born every minute.–P.T. Barnum

Some sources claim the quote is most likely from famous con-man Joseph (“Paper Collar Joe”) Bessimer,[1] and other sources say it was actually uttered by David Hannum, spoken in reference to Barnum’s part in the Cardiff Gianthoax. Hannum, who was exhibiting the “original” giant and had unsuccessfully sued Barnum for exhibiting a copy and claiming it was the original, was referring to the crowds continuing to pay to see Barnum’s exhibit even after both it and the original had been proven to be fakes.

Documentary on Nigerian Scams http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0e-pPfITts

Who is the fool at the table? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lh8dcvj-0NA

My lucky day?

Another Nigerian Email hits my inbox with a $10.5 million pound sterling offer.

ATM international credit settlement Office of the director of operation Office of the presidency

Attention Honorable Beneficiary     That’s me! Will I be the Moogoo?

This is to officially notify you that we have verified your contract Inheritances file and found out that why you have not received your payment is because you have not fulfilled the obligations given to you in respect of your contract/inheritance payment.  

Secondly, we have been informed that you are still dealing with the none officials in the bank, all your attempt to secure the release of the fund to you. We wish to advise you that such an illegal act like this have to stop if you wish to receive your payment since we have decided to bring a solution to your problem. Right now we have arranged your payment through our swift card payment center Asia pacific that is the latest instruction FROM MR. PRESIDENT,GOODLUCK EBELE JONATHAN (GCFR) PRESIDENT FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA AND FEDERAL MINISTRY OF FINANCE.       His Momma named him Goodluck?

This card center will send you an ATM card which you will use to withdraw your money in any ATM machine in any part of the world, but the maximum withdrawer is Ten thousand five hundred Pounds per day, so if you like to receive your fund this way please let us know by contacting the card payment center and also send the following information to her in order to proceed immediately:    $10,500 per day!? That won’t even cover my Lap Dances at the club.  I will demand a higher payout. 

1. Full name 2. Phone and fax number 3. Your Address 4. Your age and current occupation 5. A copy of your identification 6. Social Security Number  7. Passport number. Bank Account Information.   Sounds easy!

However, kindly find below the contact person: Mr. Henry Onyemem Director, ATM payment department Email: henryonyemem87@yahoo.co.jp

The ATM card payment center has been mandated to issue out (GBP£10, 500,000.00) Ten million five hundred thousand pounds as part payment for this fiscal year 2012. Also for your Information, you have to stop any further communication with any other person(s)or office(s) to avoid any hitches in receiving your at payment(A Code of Silence!) For oral discussion, i can be reached on or email me back as soon as you receive this important message for further direction and also update me on any development from the above mentioned office.

Have in mind that because of impostors, we hereby issued you our code of Conduct, which is (ATM-154) so you have to indicate this code when contacting the card center by using it as your subject.

Best Regards,

Mrs. Ngozi Okonjo Iweala Ministers Of Finance Nigeria

Could that be a scam?  I like the idea of receiving $10.5 million pounds per this year. What might I receive the following year? What discount rate should I use to capitalize earnings? Do you think I could go public?

Personal tales of scamming:http://www.yrad.com/

Details of Nigerian Scams:http://www.crimes-of-persuasion.com/Crimes/Business/nigerian.htm

FBI info on scams:http://www.fbi.gov/scams-safety/fraud

Laugh now, but remember who is on the other side of every transaction you make in the stock or bond market. Do you have an edge? How and why?

Richard Rainwater on Lessons Learned

A reader gave me a heads up on an interesting article on investing. Worth your time: http://www.marketfolly.com/2012/04/investing-lessons-from-richard.html

Lampert on Greatest Investment Lessons Learned

Eddie Lampert says that, “You have to have a point of view, you have to have a belief that something’s possible. And that you can see something that other people don’t. And a lot of times, when you see something that other people don’t, there’s nothing there. But there are times where there are things there. And the question is ‘is it worth it to invest your money and is it worth it to invest your time?’ ”

Another lesson Lampert said was important from Richard is to “invest in what you’re familiar with, invest in what you’re comfortable with. He’d go to the opportunities … he’ll be looking for where there’s disruption, but something that he feels comfortable with. He understood his capabilities … He wanted to get into business with great people and I think that was a great lesson as to how important people are to making businesses work.”

Referencing a specific Rainwater investment, Lampert says that, “Sometimes you make investments and they if don’t work out, what you learn are applicable to other situations.”

Lampert also went on to say that “Investing can be very lonely, especially if you’re contrarian.” Barry Sternlicht highlighted how this applies to Eddie, saying that “you make very few, very large, concentrated bets and you’ve been very patient.”

Read more: http://www.marketfolly.com/2012/04/investing-lessons-from-richard.html#ixzz1tieNZB62