A Reader’s Question on Greenwald’s Valuation Slides

polar-bears1

A Reader’s Question

Hey John,
 
Thanks for sharing and giving advice on my previous query. I am interning in a fund that practices value investing philosophy now and learning at a much faster pace than as a retail investor. Institutional investors certainly have more firepower when it comes to gathering more information. Had me pointlessly worrying why my knowledge of industries was so shallow as a retail investor ha ha  ha. But no excuses for not read up broadly and extensively! 
 
Came across these slides.
One of them is on Jae Jun’s site. Not sure whether you have came across it. The reunion presentation slides contained some workings which I think is Greenwald’s? (Downloaded it off Columbia’s site)
 
I believe they could shed some light on how Prof. Greenwald measures business returns. (You audited his classes before, maybe you would know better)
 
Some questions that I have:
 
From EPV slide:
1) Slide 35& 42: I don’t quite really understand the steps. For slide 42, I think this might be the workings for slide 35. Don’t quite really understand them either. How did he get cash and the growth rate. And what is option.
2) Slide 36: Why does he use 2 methods to calculate the expected return for each respective market?
 
From the reunion presentation slides: It is largely similar to the EPV slides except the last few slides that are handwritten. For Gannett, I can’t decipher the workings without any context. No idea how to get distribution, organic growth or reinvestment. Needless to say, clueless for the Walmart and Amex returns as well.
 
I think a more quantitative approach to calculate the expected rate of return would be more useful in determining intrinsic value and Greenwald presents us his way of doing it.
 
How I would value a company is for instance, Company W earns $50million for FY 2012. By determining the expected return (X), we can take 50/X to determine the value of the business. Reading the way how Buffett valued Mid Continent Tab, he seems to approach valuation this way. But of course, he has a deep understanding of the industry such that he is able to project an accurate return. 
 
Not sure if you or your readers could help out. 
 
My reply: Ok, CSInvesting readers are the smartest in the world, so I will let them have first crack at your questions before I chime in. …I will be back later to answer. 
Pump and Dump Alert: Pump and Dump_SEC
 

VENICE – The run-up in gold prices in recent years – from $800 per ounce in early 2009 to above $1,900 in the fall of 2011 – had all the features of a bubble. And now, like all asset-price surges that are divorced from the fundamentals of supply and demand, the gold bubble is deflating.

This illustration is by Barrie Maguire and comes from <a href="http://www.newsart.com">NewsArt.com</a>, and is the property of the NewsArt organization and of its artist. Reproducing this image is a violation of copyright law.
Illustration by Barrie Maguire
Good Advice:http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty060313.html    Buy gold mining shares…………..

Gold XAU

Fiat Money Inflation 1790 and Do The Math

Spending

 Can it really be possible to simply print money out of thin air and use it to pay off the world’s debt without there being any consequence?  –Chicago Slim

Let’s Learn What History Can Teach Us………..

BOOKS:

Speculative Bubbles (John Law) bubbles

Fiat Money Inflation in France by Andrew Dickson White inflationinfrance

What Has the Government Done to Our Money by Murray Rothbard: whathasgovernmentdone

How Can We Apply Those Lessons to Our Current Situation?

Here’s Grant Williams presentation to CFA’s via youtube: Do the Math

 James Grant Interview on Central Banks and Gold: http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/25_James_Grant.html

 

Jim Rogers: ‘Nobody gets out of this situation until there’s a crisis’

http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/newsdesk/jim-rogers-interview.html

The Gold Market Today: Acting Man May 31 2013_Gold Market

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND

PS: A reader donated several books:

Franchise_Value_-_A_Modern_Approach_to_Security_Analysis (Difficult but excellent)

Other books are in Epub format. I am struggling to download and save them so when I do that, I will upload to this blog. 

 

Readers’ Questions: Studying a Company; Gold Stocks; Down and Dirty on EGD.V

Mkt Cap to GDP

Investing, when it looks the easiest, is at its hardest. When just about everyone heavily invested is doing well, it is hard for others to resist jumping in. But a market relentlessly rising in the face of challenging fundamentals–recession in Europe and Japan, slowdown in China, fiscal stalemate and high unemployment in the U.S.– is the riskiest environment of all.–Seth Klarman

Read more on Buffett’s market indicator flashing red: http://greenbackd.com/2013/05/22/warren-buffetts-favored-measure-of-market-valuation-passes-unwelcome-milestone/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Greenbackd+%28Greenbackd%29

READERS’ QUESTIONS

Reader #1: To give you a bit of an introduction about myself, I am based in Singapore and a third year accountancy student. Have been researching Asian equities for quite a while and would like to seek your opinion on my analysis process.

I have read many books on value investing; Greenwald, Graham, Fisher and also accounting books like Financial Shenanigans. However, this is what I noticed whenever I am about to start working on a company.

Financial statements: I am able to pinpoint out the basic stuff like gross margin, ROA, ROIC, balance sheet ratios etc. But to be able to paint the full picture of a company, I am still not quite certain of my ability to do so yet. I have seen how some investors are able to tell a story using the financial statements (Have seen in newsletters of funds, books). Like picking out the nitty-gritty stuff.

Qualitative aspects: I start out first by reading the past few years of annual reports to get an idea of the corporate structure of the company and the business model. This step is generally OK. However, I am kinda unsure how to proceed on from here. What I usually do is that I just google the business model. Etc this company sells jewelry. I google jewelry business/how is jewelry manufactured and sold…you get my point. 

But somehow, I still feel kinda lacking when I compare my analysis with the fund managers here. I read their newsletters, download conference calls transcript to see what questions they ask etc. And their level of understanding of the business simply astonishes me! 

Not sure how you go about doing it but would like to hear from you!

My reply: You may need to learn more about analyzing an industry/business. As you first look at a company you want to answer several questions:

Does the company have a competitive advantage as shown by fairly high and consistent profitability and/or market share? If yes, then what is the source of competitive advantage? Patents/Copyrights (Disney), Unique Asset (Compass Minerals) , economies of scale coupled with customer captivity (Coke), etc. Is the moat weakening or strengthening?   What price will you pay for growth?

You could draw up an industry map to understand the business better. Read Bruce Greenwald’s Competition Demystified or (Use search box on csinvesting.org and follow links to download cases on Coors, Coke, etc.).

Read: Strategic Logic by J. Carlos Jarillo and The Curse of the Mogul, What’s Wrong with the World’s Leading Media Companies by Jonathan Knee and Bruce C. Greenwald.  Also, The Profit Zone: How Strategic Business Design Will Lead You to Tomorrow’s Profits by Adrian J. Slywotzsky.

If the business has no competitive advantage–95% of most businesses–then can management earn a fair return on the company’s assets?  Does management allocate capital effectively; do they eat their own cooking?

Always try to find a thesis for a variant perception. Is there hidden value in this company like shutting down a losing subsidiary, NOLs, underutilized assets, etc. Where can I develop an understanding that will give me an edge?

Read with a purpose. Develop a checklist of your own. Try to determine the key metrics of the business. What are the risks in the business?

Try to read biographies of business leaders in a particular industry. You can find  books about the cruise ship industry, steel, beverages, sports, media, and airlines. Also, try to speak to people in the business and industry once you have a basic understanding of the business. Read about the history of the industry–its booms and busts–what are the opportune times to buy and sell such a business?

But until you spend about ten years studying hard, it is difficult to develop proficiency in anything, so patience.  Good luck.

Reader #2:

I have been dipping my toe into gold stocks having owned Yukon Nevada and Energold (EGDFF) over the last year or so.  I am thinking along your lines that I need to diversify into ten or so names with a mix of producing and near producing.  I wondered if you knew the current top 10  GSA recommendations and if there were any other stocks at the exploration or near producing end that you thought were worth further investigation. I see Weiss has a large position in Seabridge, but I don’t really know how to analyze the opportunity?

My reply: Like this gentleman, http://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/, I am drawn to cheap assets.   Precious metals miners (GDX and GDXJ) certainly qualify. The more I study mining, the more I dislike the business. These businesses are highly capital intensive, they are price takers and subject to many operational risks. Right off the bat, you HAVE to buy these assets cheaply to reduce your risks and you must diversify (8 to 12) names to take advantage of the insurance concept of GENERAL cheapness. One of your companies could get swamped but overall your other companies will flourish. I bought Energold last week once it went 15% below $2.00 per share because then you were buying  the company for less than its working capital of which 40% of that was cash. I don’t buy the thesis that Energold has a competitive advantage. I am buying cheap assets.

The mining industry has four tiers: Senior Producers like Yumana, Newmont, Agnico-Eagle, Goldcorp, Barrick. Then you have mid Tier Producers like EGO, GORO, and NGD, then you have developmental companies like Seabridge, Pretium and  others which may be years until production. Finally, the lottery tickets like explorers found in GLDX.

If you want exposure to bullion, I recommend CEF at a 2% discount or more. Avoid GDXJ because of some of the low quality names in that index. You might want TOCQUEVILLE. John Hathaway, the fund’s manager, has a long experience and good reputation. Read his letters for several years. See his fund below:TOCQUEVILLE

GROW

Above, is GROW (US Global Investors) this may be a cheap way to participate in the rebound in precious metals and commodities. The current price seems to be at a discount to its cash and AUM of $1.3 billion using 2% of AUM (pay less than $3 per share).

Another way to reduce your risk through diversification and avoiding operational mining risk is to look at the royalty/streamer companies like SLW, RGLD, SAND, FNV. Though they are not as statistically cheap, they have huge free cash flows. I think those companies will be needed more and more to finance future exploration and development. Put your hat in the ring with experts. Now is a better time to be buying than in the past five years based on valuations.

The safer strategy would be to go with Tocqueville because you get broad diversification with a manager who knows his companies. The downside is the annual fee. However,  You can make decent returns when this sector rebounds and be ready to sell when his fund become popular again. Look at Fairholme last year with its heavy investments in financials–a formerly out of favor sector:

FAIRX

The downside in gold and gold stocks may not be over. My thinking is that the current events are VERY bullish for gold long-term but bearish short-term. Japan’s insane policy of currency debasement is forcing down interest rates (for now) and leading to a reach for yield (return) so gold might be under pressure as investors leave gold to pursue stocks.  Eventually, Japan’s currency will implode, leading to massive unintended consequences and a rush back to safety.  But, gold miners don’t necessarily need gold to go up, they need their inputs to decline more than gold, so their margins widen/stabilize. 

Also, gold should just be part, not all, of your portfolio.

P.S: ENERGOLD (EGDFF): Down and Dirty Analysis

Someone sent me this……sometimes the best ideas are the simplest.

Or even better, Energold. I am a proud shareowner. But emotions and will aside. Here you have a biz with 3 operations. Earnings power is the best way to look at it and most valuable, but let’s imagine we just sold for parts:

Dando (worth 3mm or so – bought for 300k or so plus put in working capital)
Bertram (paid 18mm for it. But EBITDA now back up in the low/mid teens – worth at least 30mm today)

Mining Biz (133 rigs, let’s be super conservative and say 250k per rig – so worth floor of 33.25mm)

Impact Silver Stake (3.8mm at today’s prices)

In addition, 91.2mm of working capital (incl. cash and inventories)
Minus the 43mm in total liabilities = $3+30+33.25+3.8+(91.2-43)= 118.7mm ($2.59 per share) vs today’s EV of 68.15 mm.

I am no genius – but that seems silly cheap to me. What’s more, earnings power is substantially higher, and the company is growing, and it has amazing operational leverage. Sure, results may not look amazing until they are back towards 5000k meters per drill annually. But even if they were to only get 3500 meters per drill @ 180 per meter (assuming cost per meter is ~138 per meter) the minimg biz is still FCF positive and earnings positive. And these are bad times. Bertram still doing fine, as is Dando.

Another good blog:  http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/

 

 

 

The Most Hated Asset Class

Gold BGMI Ratio

 A gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar on top–Mark Twain

The above chart illustrates how historically cheap gold mining equities are to gold. Not since the Great Depression and Pearl Harbor have equities been so cheap on market cap to production, reserves and cash costs. See the XAU (Index of gold and silver miners) below as a percentage of the gold price–currently below the Great Recession lows of 2008:

XAU vs Gold

For about six years, equities have under-performed due to poor management, rising input costs, dilution, and growth for growth’s sake. That’s the bad news. The good news is that many managements have been replaced and now the focus in on return ON capital. Dividend yields on the senior miners are above 20-year bond rates. The market is forcing managements to focus on returns and that bodes well for the future. And some input prices are falling.  However, many weak companies will go bust leaving less competition for the survivors. Therefore, you must diversify into a basket of WELL-FINANCED Companies operating with good properties in safe jurisdictions for mining and, of course, with proven management. Mining is extremely risky. However, the historic cheapness of mining equities give you a margin of error, but choose wisely.

Pessimism is rampant:

Shorts in Gold

Note below that for a risk-free asset, gold which has no counter-party risk, there is a closed end fund holding silver and gold bullion that trades at a 2% to 5% discount (A great way to buy bullion). People want out!

CEF-NAV

Monetary Mayhem is being overlooked (Many believe central banks have solved our debt problems and can eventually “exit” when the economy reaches “escape velocity.”)  Ha! Ha!

Global-Central-Bank-Assets-vs-Gold (1) 

gld purple debt stair case

Stairway to hell gold

The last two charts illustrate growing debt that as the chart below will show below is being monetized–coupled with negative real interest rates–the current environment is conducive to higher gold prices. While Western speculators flee from ETFs, Chinese Grandmas rush to buy gold for their savings.

MonetaryBase AndM2AndMZM

Real Interest Rates are supportive for gold

If the US government practiced fiscal discipline and interest rates were allowed to rise to their natural level, the bull market in gold would probably be finished. When your cab driver suggests that you buy gold for safety that will also be a read flag. Gold and precious metal miners and commodities, in general, are hated, shorted and/or ignored.

Gold and Interest Rates

Meanwhile, investors have been flocking (some by selling their insurance like gold) to buy stocks, but risks are rising in the stock market due to higher valuations. Margin debt is near all-time highs, insiders have been selling, and a Barron’s poll recently had 75% of all money managers bullish. Of course, the majority expect gold prices to decline. Note the chart below indicates the stock market relative to its Q Ratio or replacement cost of asset, a proxy for value.  

Q Ratio of stocks

And sentiment is upbeat:

ON-BA688_cover0_BA_20130420002733

Going contrary to massive market sentiment is painful, but going where the bargains are greatest will lead to better returns and safety in the long run (2 to 5 years). Depressed prices alleviate a lot of your investment risk while elevated prices (MMM, CLX, and junk bonds) raise your risks.

But risks overall have never been so high due to central bank intervention into the credit markets. Be careful and have a great weekend. I will be back next week.

 

CASE STUDY on MMM (3M) Prizes Awarded!

3m image

Case Study on 3M

Please use the Value-Line below to tell readers what would be an investor’s future return if you purchased MMM today?  Please support your answer with no more than a sentence or two. What’s MMM worth? What does this valuation teach you about valuations and Mr. Market?

MMM CHART

MMM_VL and for perspective: MMM_35

Be honest and forthcoming like this gentleman:

and show some enthusiasm like this kid: http://youtu.be/1Z6PPrr29ts?t=7m13s   Jonah Rocks!

Beat the Market and the Dealer; Swindles; Is the Fed Printing Money?

XYZPerfGraphs0003.jpg.w300h228

Above is the great Ed Thorp’s Princeton Partners performance graph. Learn more BEAT the Dealer AND the Market.

Black Swan Protection (Over my head but perhaps not over yours)


My Encounters With Madoff’s Scheme and Other Swindles

Uncovering Madoff Fraud by Thorp

By Edward O. Thorp

Excerpt:

“On the afternoon of Thursday, December 11, 2008, I got the news I had been expecting for more than seventeen years.  Calling from New York, my son Jeff said Bernie Madoff has confessed to defrauding investors of $50 billion in the greatest Ponzi scheme in history.  “It’s what you predicted in … 1991!” he said.

“It began on a balmy Monday morning in New York in the spring of 1991, when I arrived at the office of a well-known international company.  The investment committee, reviewing their hedge fund investments, decided at this time to add due diligence by hiring me as a consultant.  I spent a few days listening to summaries of track records, analyses of the business structures of the hedge funds, the backgrounds of their managers, and making on-site visits.  One of the fund managers was so paranoid when I interviewed him at his office that he wouldn’t tell me what kind of personal computers they used.  When I went to the restroom he escorted me for fear that I might acquire some valuable crumb of information. 

“With one exception, I approved the investments.  The story from Bernard Madoff Investments did not add up.  My client had been getting steady monthly profits ranging from 1% to more than 2% for more than two years.  Moreover, they knew other Madoff investors who had been winning every month for more than ten years.”

(Editor: How did the SEC’s examiners miss the swindle? All they had to do was check the OPPOSITE party on the Madoff’s trading tickets.  So if Madoff had a purchase of 1000 options on Coke, the examiner would check the counter-party’s back office to verify the transaction–a sale of 1,000 coke options to Madoff’s firm. A few more random checks would take 20 minutes.  DID the SEC EVEN DO THIS? If not, then why wouldn’t the government be liable for the fraud?)

Thorp’s website  (Excellent!)

MonetaryBase AndM2AndMZM

Is the Federal Reserve “Printing” Money? This is a question YOU must answer BEFORE you invest. 

POP QUIZ:  If the Fed can buy government debt by paying with electronic credits (purchase debt with money created out of thin air) then shouldn’t that mean a new paradise on earth?  The government can provide ALL goods and services to the American people by issuing unlimited bonds and not worry about who will buy and at what price the government can sell their debt, that is incurred to pay for the goods and services purchased for ALL Americans, because the Fed can purchase the bonds in unlimited quantities and forever. Therefore, there is no need for Americans to work or pay for services. We have perpetual wealth. Does ANYONE disagree with that “analysis?”

From http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/as-reminder-fed-is-not-printing-money.html

Keep in mind that my argument here is not the true nature of excess reserves, but rather, is the Fed ‘printing money’ by expanding its Balance Sheet.

Normally the Fed does not have to print money.  The Federal Reserve Banks do that for themselves under their charters with the consent and oversight of the Fed, and subject to the prevailing capital requirements.

But when the real economy, as typified in the recent collapse and the continuing plunge of the velocity of money indicators, the Fed picks up the ball and prints money for the benefit of the economy.  They use this to ‘lower interest rates’ except in a liquidity trap wherein that is like pushing a rope.

I think what some of these helpful pundits are trying to say is that the Fed is not ‘printing money’ so that it is becoming an inflationary problem.  They are giving that ‘money’ to the Banks, and they hold it for safekeeping.  And for their gambling stash. And for credit cards and food stamp distributions and other fee generating activities.  And for loans to pay dividends, and fund share buybacks, and the occasional industrial activity.

And among other things it involves the payments on excess reserves that they are paying to the Banks to sit on that money.  And the gaming of the financial markets to which they turn a blind eye.  And the enormous abuses in the financial system which have still not been reformed.

And keep in mind that the purpose of my writing this is not to argue about ‘excess reserves’ but rather with regard to the question of whether the Fed is ‘printing money.’  Yes they are.  The quibble is what is being done with that money, which the Fed is providing in its function as the lender of last resort by buying Treasuries, and sometimes dodgy paper at non-market prices, and providing a subsidy to the Banks in the process.

That the Banks are NOT getting that money to the real economy in sufficient amounts is another matter perhaps.  There is a difference between liquidity and risk.

And I think that there is a strong indication that the interest rate policy mechanism of the Fed has broken down because Banks, or at least those holding those Reserves, are not making the bulk of their profits from conventional lending any longer.

They are making their profits through various forms of private investment and the many permutations of prop trading.  And their lending preferences tend towards further financialization of the economy.  This is the downside of the lack of serious reform.

Click on the subject link ‘Excess Reserves’ below for more on these Tales from the Vienna Woods (the play, not the waltz) from our financial sophisticates, and sophists, who like to argue what the meaning of is,is.    And there are some related articles and essays at the end that might be useful.

Or just start by clicking here.

More on the Fed creating chaos. http://www.mises.org/daily/6429/FDR-Sowing-the-Seeds-of-Chaos

Bitcoin Bust

Nixon

 

Free Accounting Course from Wharton; Learning from the French Revolution to Invest Today

SOCCER

 And as investors expect the low inflation environment to continue, they have responded by reducing commodity and emerging market exposure and pumping more money into bonds. A net 29% of global asset allocators are underweight commodities, the BofA Merrill study finds, up from 11% in March and at the lowest level since December 2008. Asset allocators are avoiding energy stocks as well.

https://www.coursera.org/course/accounting

About the Course

Accounting is the language of business.  Companies communicate their performance to outsiders and evaluate the performance of their employees using information generated by the accounting system.  Learning the language of accounting is essential for anyone that must make decisions based on financial information.

The course is designed to provide an understanding of financial accounting fundamentals for prospective users of corporate financial information, such as investors, creditors, employees, and other stakeholders (e.g., suppliers, customers).   The course focuses on understanding how economic events such as operating activities, corporate investments, and financing transactions are recorded in the three main financial statements (i.e., the income statement, balance sheet, and statement of cash flows). Students will develop the technical skills needed to analyze financial statements and disclosures for use in financial analysis.  Students will also learn how accounting standards and managerial incentives affect the financial reporting process.

Course Syllabus

The course is broken up into ten weekly modules:

  • Introduction and Balance Sheet
  • Accrual Accounting and the Income Statement
  • Cash flows
  • Working capital assets
  • Ratio analysis and Mid-course Exam
  • Long-lived assets and marketable securities
  • Liabilities and long-term debt
  • Deferred taxes
  • Stockholders’ equity
  • How to read an Annual Report and Final Exam

Recommended Background

The course is recommended for students with little or no prior background in financial accounting that want to improve their financial literacy.  There are no academic prerequisites for the course.  Although we will work with numbers in the course, the only required math knowledge is addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division.

Suggested Readings

The course is designed to be self-contained.  Students wanting to expand their knowledge beyond what we can cover in this course or who want more practice problems or more in-depth explanations can consult any Introduction to Financial Accounting textbook that is geared toward MBA students.  Because the material in the course has been fairly unchanged for the past few years, any used prior editions of textbooks should be acceptable.

Course Format

The course will combine video of the instructor with Powerpoint slides to the deliver the material.  The lectures will be “interactive” in that the instructor will periodically ask students to pause the presentation and guess an answer before proceeding.  The videos will also cover “case studies” of real companies to illustrate the course concepts.  The course will provide eight short homework assignments and two exams.

FAQ

Will I get a Statement of Accomplishment after completing this class?

Contingent on academic performance, you will get a Statement of Accomplishment stating that you completed this course.  However, no certificate will be given from Wharton / Penn and successful completion of this course does not make you a Wharton / Penn alumnus.

 

What resources will I need for this class?

Everything you need will be provided via the Coursera platform.

 

What is the coolest thing I’ll learn if I take this class?

You will not only better understand what people in the business media are talking about, you will also be able to notice when they don’t know what they are talking about!

About the Instructor

Brian J BusheeUniversity of Pennsylvania


Categories: 
Economics & Finance
Business & Management

The French Revolution and Speculator Joseph Fouche

SSOL_Issue_05

Investors have flocked into financial assets while shunning commodity companies because of China slowdown fears and less “inflation.” What if they are wrong?

Greatest Trades of All-Time; Think Differently

Best-Trades-Of-All-Time

‘How to think’:

It may sound peculiar that contrary thinking is required to achieve creative thoughts… This, however, becomes self-evident when we realize that thinking the way someone else thinks results in mimicry — a “copy-cat” requires the minimum of creative thought… Therefore, the inference is that to achieve any creativeness, some change has to be made. From this, it stands to reason that the optimum in creativeness must approach the maximum change… and the maximum change must be close to the opposite.

Zuce Kogan, Founder of the Creative Thinking Institute

1.      Rid Yourself of Nebulous Terms – Define, Redefine & Refine.

Unless you’re an orator or something it’s highly likely that nebulosity is your enemy. If you speak and think in vague terms, then simple, logical deductions are likely to evade you. But since life involves doing one thing or another, chances are that you’ll default to linking concepts in the ‘default’ way — the way suggested by the crowd. In that case it is likely that the succession of vague, emotive images will govern your action.

The power of words is bound up with the images they evoke, and is quite independent of their real significance. Words whose sense is the most ill-defined are sometimes those that possess the most influence. Such, for example, are the terms democracy, socialism, equality, liberty, etc. whose meaning is so vague that bulky volumes do not suffice to precisely fix it. Yet it is certain that a truly magical power is attached to those short syllables, as if they contained the solution of all problems. They synthesise the most diverse unconscious aspirations and the hope of their realisation.

Gustave Le Bon, The Crowd, A Study of the Popular Mind

Since eccentricity involves a capacity to deal with reality in a supposedly ‘odd’ manner and since the crowd deals mainly in vague images, one clear way to surpass them is simply to define the terms in which you speak and think.

This can seem daunting — especially at first. However, since the crowd remains ever-ponderous and dogmatic, it takes but a very small amount of clarity to achieve oversized gains. One need not plan out the redefinition of one’s entire vocabulary — just start with one concept that you use a lot in your daily life. I expect that the incentive gleaned from the initial reward will be enough to prompt further redefinitions and refinements.

2.      Allocate All of Your Available Resources Contrarily.

Contrary allocation of capital seems to be well-acknowledged as a key to success in certain investment and entrepreneurial communities. However, it also seems to remain compartmentalized as a theory about allocating capital and capital only – I say that if you wish to reach the honourable status of the ‘Mad Man’, it is prudent to apply this theory to all of the resources at your disposal:

                       

Everything that should be managed lies here. Click to enlarge.

INSIDE YOUR HEAD

The truth is that you should allow your mind ruminate contrarily for more than just your money – but also for your time, energy and your attention. The integrated eccentric is he who doesn’t give up in any of these fields.

Whenever you are next faced with a seemingly trivial matter (such as whether or not to read a newspaper, take a taxi or express interest in an uninteresting matter) allow yourself to consider what the ‘common way’ is and just try the opposite.

3.      Adopt a Kantian Distaste for Intellectual Discussion & Stop Checking with Others.

Sometimes, if not most of the time, it is quite unnecessary to acquire the opinions of others before you act. Yet nevertheless I see a strong tendency for people to check and verify trivial and non-trivial matters with one another. This brings about two serious hindrances to the wannabe wacko; 1) it forces you to adapt your language to that of someone that is probably confused and using nebulous terms and 2) it will likely introduce unneeded emotions into your mind.
In order to acquire a sense of creativity I suggest that you act before you tell others about your actions and – in particular – adopt a Kantian distaste for intellectual discussion:

By and large Kant, unlike Socrates, avoided the company of philosophers and philosophically minded fellow citizens. He did this not because of any conviction that philosophers as a breed are inevitably frivolous or consumed by the need to prattle on about their most recent publications; some are, to be sure, and these one would seek to avoid in any case. He was certainly aware that in his field of study there existed colleagues with whom he could talk about bank accounts, ball games or battle plans. But philosophers tend to talk about philosophy. And even if such talk is motivated by infinite charity and fraternal goodwill, it provokes some response, comment or counter-argument to the ideas and theories presented. In print the same arguments have quite a different impact; they can be simply registered without requiring an immediate response, or can be interpreted to suit one’s frame of mind, and as a last resort a page can be turned and a book can be closed. But in conversation courtesy demands that the addressee react and relate himself. And this, in Kant’s view, is a dangerous exercise and one that certainly lacks the productive element that Socrates may have found in it. Philosophers, or so Kant thought, work best in isolation…

4.      Test Your Revelations in Small Ways. Proceed to Fail Small & Win Big.

So by now hopefully you’ve defined at least one term that has significance to your life, considered allocating your time, attention and money contrarily and considered doing something big without checking with anyone at all. Chances are that you may have thought of something interesting. The default consensual reaction is to elaborate a plan in a manner that requires significant resources (be that money, time, energy, attention or whatever else). I urge you to take a step back and consider how you might test it in the smallest possible way.

I’m always astounded by the degree to which people attempt to impose the property of permanence upon themselves. [facepalm] Why oh why? [/facepalm] Permanence through life is most frequently a large and onerous speculation — and indeed a type of speculation that is likely to be unattainable due to the ever-changing nature of each and every living individual. I suggest that if you wish to maintain your newfound eccentric temperament and demeanour, then risk little, lots rather than lots, little. If you risk little, lots you will not suffer the emotional turmoil that accompanies a large drawdown – and if you’re thinking contrarily you’ll likely be risking little for lots.

5.      Acquire Refined Senses of Ignorance & Stubbornness

The final step to eternal quirkdom is to maintain both a refined sense of ignorance and a refined sense of stubbornness. In the first instance, I should define my terms:

By ignorance, I mean a lack of knowledge. By stubbornness I mean an unwillingness to move from one’s intellectual position.

The former ‘sense of ignorance’ is merely a sustained application of point 2) about properly allocating all of your resources. By carefully selecting what enters your mind, you can maintain a temperament where you decide the content of your ignorance (or more precisely the content of your non-ignorance). This term – most commonly used as an insult – is in this sense quite neutral. We all must be lacking in knowledge (since we are not beings of perfect intelligence). Acquiring a refined sense of ignorance is merely rejecting the notion that the crowd should determine what you are not to ignore (and to be sure that determination is perilously nebulous anyhow!).

The latter ‘sense of stubbornness’ is merely the unwillingness to forego logic for the vague images of the crowd. Once again – it is a rejection of the crowd’s vague concept of when you should and should not give up your intellectual positions.

Recommended Reading:

[Full Disclosure: We adore these books and suggest them to everyone we know — but be aware that the links on the left are affiliate links. If you would rather not pass affiliate credit to us then feel free to use the links on the right.]

Free Book on Crowd Psychology: http://archive.org/stream/crowdastudypopu00bongoog#page/n6/mode/1up

http://greshams-law.com (A Great WebSite on Financial History)

HETTY GREEN

Buy or Sell in May and Go Away?

My thoughts exactly: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty051313.html

The Stock Market Is Expensive? So What’s A Value Investor To Do? Buffett Videos

NO LOSE

Is the Market Expensive?

Profit Margins

Margin Debt

Q Ratio

fear

Where The Cheap Stocks Are—Come Hell Or High Water

Is “value investing” dead? Far from it, says Jon Shayne, whose bargain-hunting style will likely endure no matter who wins the presidential election or what horrors Mother Nature might whip up.

If you follow the stock market, Jon Shayne is worth a good, long listen. Especially now. (Also, check out his blog: http://www.jonshayne.com/2013_04_01_archive.html)

A disciplined buy-and-hold guy, Shayne manages $180 million for high-net-worth individuals, corporations and foundations, mainly in Tennessee. Like all value investors, he thrills at unearthing solid companies trading at below-average prices. The kind of companies that, as Warren Buffett said, would still be around if the market were to shut down for 10 years—let alone for two days after a devastating hurricane.

This game takes patience, and Shayne’s has served him well. Since his firm’s inception in March 1995, his stock picks have returned a smidgeon over 13% a year (net of a modest 1% annual management fee), versus 8.4% for the S&P 500 index. Including cash and Treasury bonds, Shayne has clocked a net 10.2% annualized return, with less than half the volatility of the broader stock market.

Trouble is, truly good values have been increasingly hard to find. While the market retreated a tad after a rash of weak corporate earnings reports and ominous pronouncements by the International Monetary Fund, stocks are still very expensive by historical measures. And as for finding safety on the sidelines, the Federal Reserve’s tireless printing presses have done to Treasury yields what Hurricane Sandy just did to the northeastern coastline.

Shayne’s dilemma and ours: Get in the game—even if you have to pay up for the privilege—or watch your capital get gnawed by inflation. “There are periods when it’s easy to find stuff, and periods when it gets pretty hard,” says Shayne. “The environment is more difficult than it has been because it is more uncomfortable to hold cash.”

Read More…….Where the Cheap Stocks Are

Top 5 Videos on Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett is primary shareholder, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, and ranks amongst the world’s wealthiest people. Warren Buffett made much of his billions through applying his keen business sense and his value oriented investment style – he sees his core talent as being a skilled allocator of capital; and owes much of his investment success to picking skilled managers and letting them get on with running the business. Clearly as one of the world’s most successful investors, his methods and path to success have been closely studied by many aspiring investors around the world, and in a game where knowledge is power it makes sense to learn from this master of investing. The following 5 documentaries provide an insight into the life of Warren Buffett, how he made his money, what he thinks about, and how he invests. 1.
Warren Buffett Revealed This Bloomberg documentary provides an interesting look at this legendary investor, telling how he became interested in stocks early in his life and became a disciple of the ‘father of value investing‘, Benjamin Graham (author of the book “Securities Analysis”). Buffett mastered the style of value investing and with instincts and gumption made a strong start, but he really took things to the next level when he orchestrated the takeover of Berkshire Hathaway; later focusing the business on insurance – allowing him access to a sizeable pool of investable assets.
2. The World’s Greatest Money Maker This BBC documentary offers an intimate look at the life of Warren Buffett, how he made his money, how he operates, how he came to operate in the way he does, and how he thinks about his wealth. It also takes you on a tour of his office and the annual shareholders meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, not to mention a peak at his many eccentricities.
3. Biography – Warren Buffett This biographical documentary takes you through the life of Warren Buffett; how he developed his value investing philosophy, how he came to be majority owner and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, his frugality, his upbringing, his key choices in life, his mentors, the turning points and defining moments.
4. Warren Buffett – Going Global This video is more about an applied look at how Warren Buffett operates, the CNBC show follows Warren on one of his rare trips overseas, including a look at one of his first offshore acquisitions – ISCAR. This video shows how folksy, old fashioned, and down to earth the billionaire investor is, but it also shows how he is quick to realise a good deal and his talent for allocating capital. It also shows his brilliance for identifying great companies and strong capable management teams and letting them get on with the business for him.
5. Warren Buffett MBA Talk Finally we get a talk from the man himself, with some key messages for the MBA students he is addressing on the importance of integrity, intelligence, and energy for success; but that there is more to it than intelligence and energy – without integrity a person can become dumb and lazy. He also opens the floor to some interesting and thought provoking questions, providing an eye opening look into how the man thinks and what he sees as the key issues in business and investing.
Thanks to www.financedocumentaries.com for finding all these documentaries (and others!) Source: http://www.alleconomists.com/2012/10/top-5-videos-on-warren-buffett.html

I Gotta Bad Feeling

The perception that investors are “forced” to hold stocks is driven by a growing inattention to risk. But Investors are not simply choosing between a 3.2% prospective 10-year return in stocks versus a zero return on cash. They are also choosing between an exposure to 30-50% interim losses in stocks versus an exposure to zero loss in cash. They aren’t focused on the “risk” aspect of the tradeoff, because they believe that they will somehow be able to exit stocks before the tens of millions of other investors who hold identical expectations. (www.hussmanfunds.com)

http://blog.variantperception.com/2013/05/07/nyse-margin-debt-going-parabolic-signals-increased-risks-for-equities/

“For as long as I can remember, veteran businessmen and investors – I among them – have been warning about the dangers of irrational stock speculation and hammering away at the theme that stock certificates are deeds of ownership and not betting slips… The professional investor has no choice but to sit by quietly while the mob has its day, until the enthusiasm or panic of the speculators and non-professionals has been spent. He is not impatient, nor is he even in a very great hurry, for he is an investor, not a gambler or a speculator. The seeds of any bust are inherent in any boom that outstrips the pace of whatever solid factors gave it its impetus in the first place. There are no safeguards that can protect the emotional investor from himself.”

– J. Paul Getty