Tag Archives: Gold

Monetary History: Should Legal Tender Laws Be Abolished?

pirates

The Supreme Court’s ruling

Hepburn v. Griswold reached the U.S. Supreme Court in 1869, five years after the war had ended. The Court ruled in favor of Griswold, holding in a 4-3 decision that legal-tender laws violated the U.S. Constitution.

The majority opinion distinguished between money and notes to pay money:

There is a well-known law of currency, that notes or promises to pay, unless made conveniently and promptly convertible into coin at the will of the holder, can never, except under unusual and abnormal conditions, be at par in circulation with coin. It is an equally well-known law, that depreciation of notes must increase with the increase of the quantity put in circulation and the diminution of confidence in the ability or disposition to redeem. Their appreciation follows the reversal of these conditions. No act making them a legal tender can change materially the operation of these laws.

The Court also explained that the power to coin money, which the Constitution delegates to Congress, did not constitute a power to convert promissory notes into money:

It is not doubted that the power to establish a standard of value by which all other values may be measured, or, in other words, to determine what shall be lawful money and a legal tender, is in its nature, and of necessity, a governmental power. It is in all countries exercised by the government. In the United States, so far as it relates to the precious metals, it is vested in Congress by the grant of the power to coin money. But can a power to impart these qualities to notes, or promises to pay money, when offered in discharge of pre-existing debts, be derived from the coinage power, or from any other power expressly given?

It is certainly not the same power as the power to coin money.

With the holding in Griswold, the federal government was left with the power to borrow to finance its operations but without the authority to force people to accept its notes at face value for the payment of debts. Thus, the American people could still protect themselves from a profligate government by expressly providing that notes and contracts could be repaid only in money (i.e., gold coin), not in federal promises to repay money.

We the people

Overturning Griswold

One year later, however, the legal situation changed dramatically. President Ulysses S. Grant, who had commanded Union forces during the war, appointed two new justices to the Supreme Court who promptly joined the minority in Griswold. In Knox v. Lee, decided in 1879, the Supreme Court voted to overturn the decision in Griswold and to uphold the constitutionality of Lincoln’s legal-tender law.

The new majority reasoned that the power to enact a legal-tender law was an implied power that fell under the president’s war powers and the power over monetary affairs that the Constitution had granted to Congress.

But as the dissent pointed out, the implied-powers doctrine cannot be used to create new powers. The war power, for example, entails the power to pay for war expenditures but the means by which to pay for such expenditures were limited to those enumerated in the Constitution, i.e., through taxes and borrowing.

As the dissent also emphasized, the congressional power over monetary affairs was specifically limited to the coinage of money and did not extend to the enactment of laws requiring people to accept federal promissory notes in lieu of such money.

In a separate dissenting opinion, Justice Stephen J. Field pointed out the obvious:

The power “to coin money” is, in my judgment, inconsistent with and repugnant to the existence of a power to make anything but coin a legal tender. To coin money is to mould metallic substances having intrinsic value into certain forms convenient for commerce, and to impress them with the stamp of the government indicating their value. Coins are pieces of metal, of definite weight and value, thus stamped by national authority. Such is the natural import of the terms “to coin money” and “coin;” . . ..

… The power to coin money is, therefore, a power to fabricate coins out of metal as money, and thus make them a legal tender for their declared values as indicated by their stamp. If this be the true import and meaning of the language used, it is difficult to see how Congress can make the paper of the government a legal tender.

Field placed the constitutional issue in a historical context:

The statesmen who framed the Constitution understood this principle as well as it is understood in our day. They had seen in the experience of the Revolutionary period the demoralizing tendency, the cruel injustice, and the intolerable oppression of a paper currency not convertible on demand into money, and forced into circulation by legal tender provisions and penal enactments.

Field also pointed out that the Constitution had not delegated to Congress the power to impair private contracts.

With Knox v. Lee the seeds were sown for a monetary revolution in American life — a revolution that would bring the inflationary plunder and moral debauchery that have characterized nations throughout history. The revolution began with Lincoln. But it would culminate in one of most massive assaults on private property in U.S. history — President Franklin Roosevelt’s nullification of gold clauses in contracts and his confiscation of gold from the American people.

It is impossible to overstate the significance of the Franklin Roosevelt administration’s confiscation of gold and its nullification of gold clauses in contracts. It is one of the most sordid episodes in American history. To get an accurate sense of Roosevelt’s actions, it would not be inappropriate to compare what he did with the domestic economic policies of a later 20th-century ruler, Cuba’s socialist president, Fidel Castro.

On April 5, 1933, newly inaugurated President Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102, which prohibited the “hoarding” of gold by U.S. citizens. Americans were required to turn their gold holdings over to the federal government at the prevailing price of $20.67 per ounce.

Pursuant to Roosevelt’s executive order, anyone caught violating the law was subject to a federal felony conviction, 10 years’ confinement in a federal penitentiary, and a $10,000 fine. Soon after the confiscation, U.S. officials announced that the government would sell its gold in international markets for $35 an ounce, thereby devaluing the dollar by almost 70 percent and immediately “earning” a potential profit of almost $15 an ounce on the gold it had confiscated.

Two months later, Congress enacted legislation nullifying gold clauses in both government and private contracts, thereby requiring creditors in such contracts to accept devalued paper money in payment of such contractual obligations, even though the contract itself stipulated payment tied to gold.

Reflect for a moment on the significance of what Roosevelt did. Gold coins and gold bullion were private property, just like a person’s automobile, clothing, home, and food. On the mere command of the president of the United States, federal authorities simply confiscated gold holdings that were the private property of the American people and made it a grave federal offense to own such property in the future.

Read The Federal War on Gold

Your thoughts on a better monetary system. Why not let the market choose money and set the price?

 

Gold Stocks: No One Left to Kill?

5-Gold-sentiment-1

An Interesting Juncture for Gold Stocks (A good read with links)

Note that CEF in the above chart trades at an 11% discount to its 60%/40% holding of gold and silver bullion after a four year down-trend–note that this is either hyper-bearishness or massive extrapolation of trend-following.   Apple’s cash hoard could buy the entire public mining sector.   Gold stocks are cheap for a reason: poor capital allocation, poor cost control, and dilution of shareholders revealed in the five-year long bust from an epic boom from 2001 to 2011 caused investors to flee.   Since then many managements have gained religion on cost control and capital discipline (Note Barrick, ABX). All cycles turn, but when? If we knew, then no opportunity.

I always hear investors or analysts ask, “So what is the catalyst?”  If the market is at all efficient–and I would say that it is except at major inflection points–then if we knew the catalyst, then the opportunity would be arbitraged away.  How about the law of low prices or the law of supply and demand.

gold_GNX_231115

Ironically, as gold has declined in US dollar terms, it has risen in real terms versus commodities showing its mettle in a credit contraction.  TSI BLOG

1-Divergences-complete-772x1024The HUI, a gold stock index, is showing relative strength versus gold.   However, certain gold stocks like Novagold (NG), Sabina Gold (SGSVF) or Agnico-Eagle (AEM) are in incipient uptrends or, at least, vastly outperforming their indexes such as GDX or GDXJ.  You must diversify amongst the highest quality producers, developers, and explorers.

This post is not a recommendation but a historical reference point for a hated asset class.  I see much less RISK in a terrible industry such as gold mining than wonderful businesses such as Amazon, CRM, or GE.

A Masters Degree in Mungerisms, Druckenmiller Buys 20% of Portfolio in GLD

Bakshi

A Masters in Munger  Take the university level course.

Charlie Munger

Mungerspeech_june_95

110302239-Munger-Talk-at-Harvard-Westlake

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Notes 2004

gold and Drucken

Druckenmiller Buys GLD 20%

spy credit spreads

credit spreads widen

What is Mr. Druckenmiller worried about?

Buy-Backs Create Stealth Leverage

wmc150817a

wmc150817b

wmc150817c

Gold “UNDERVALUED?”

letter-aug-16-gold-discount

 

Analysts’ Predictions on Gold; Readings

forecast

forecasts-forecasts-everywhere  (A good post on psychology)

So the gold price drops, so the gold forecasts drop. Some recent calls in order of bearishness:


Towards the end of 2010 I (Bron Suchecki)  started recording forecasts in a spreadsheet, as I noticed many analysts revised their forecasts frequently in response to moves in the gold price. By 2012 I had given up as it was a lot of work to make one point – that in general analysts were just following or projecting the trend.

The chart below shows the forecasts I accumulated from late 2010 to early 2012 (the clustering around July are yearly average forecasts) and I’ve added in the recent ones above.

Continued….on recent gold “smash”

When the gold price has a big move the news agencies ring up traders for a comment. When I read these articles I’m looking for two things: why do traders think it happened and what do they think about gold going forward. Understanding these consensus narratives around gold is useful as they control large amounts of money and their views influence others.
Before I go on to discuss the comments, please note that narratives (see Ben Hunt) are not about truth, they are about what everyone thinks is the truth. For many finance professionals, the truth is less important (if at all) than being in the herd – most are not interested in the career risk of taking a position contra to the consensus view.
In terms of the why, here are some of the more sensible comments:
  • Ross Norman: They choose the optimal moment in the early morning and when Japan was closed for a holiday to get the biggest bang for the buck. It was clearly ‘short’ traders using leverage to trigger (technical) stops” he said. The price later regained some of its ground, allegedly as the profiteers cashed in jackpot gains on options that they also had. “It was a trade within a trade”. (link)
  • Marex Spectron: no coincidence that this happened in the quietest, thinnest period of the week … they deliberately want to move it in a big way (link)
  • “Traders”: Gold also fell in the Chinese derivatives market, which, traders said, added to the impression of an orchestrated attempt to push the price down, triggering others to sell their positions. (link)
  • Martin Armstrong: many rumors floating around from China off-loading because wrong storage figures were released, to a large spec investor who sold 6 tonnes and has taken a huge loss on a leveraged trade! (link)
  • “Traders and Analysts”: attributed the massive move to high-frequency trading algorithms as well as stop-loss selling. (link)
  • Societe Generale: It was just a bit of a bear raid and there was nobody on the other side to mop up the selling (link)
  • Chuck Butler: maybe the gold sale on the SGE was “margin influenced,” which would mean that large investors use gold as collateral on stock trades, and as the Chinese stock market has dropped the margin calls have come in (link)
  • “Market Participant”: The fact that it was done in Asian hours and in a loud, messy manner suggests it may be done by people not directly under European and US regulation (link)
The general view seems to be that it was a deliberate tactical move to push the price down, trigger stops, and try to get gold down to the technically important level of $1080, but with the real objective of making money on another derivative position.
On to the narratives around gold after this price smash. Here are a selection:
  • Singapore-based trader: “We do see a lot of people in China selling gold to get fast cash to go back into the equity market” (link)
  • Phillip Securities: “It looks like the end of an era for gold, China has been grappling with oversupply after importing a record volume in 2013.” (link)
  • Societe Generale: “We have breached significant support levels, we know U.S. rate hikes are coming, there is no inflation and there is no catalyst to hold gold when other markets are doing better” (link)
  • Momentum Holdings Ltd: “With low global inflation and an improving U.S. economy, I doubt we’ll see big economic shocks, which is not good for gold” (link)
  • KBC Asset Management: “Gold is a hedge against everything that can go wrong. But at the moment it appears that not a lot is going wrong. We have an Iran deal, a Greece deal and we have good news from European and U.S. economies. There is no real reason for us to invest in gold and gold companies.” (link)
  • Deutsche Bank: “the “fair value” for gold is around $750. … “All the ducks are now aligned for a gold slide: real interest rates are rising, the dollar is getting stronger and the risk premium on equities is going down” (link)
So no change in the “improving US economy” and “Fed raise rates” story, indeed I feel that market participants see this price smash as confirmation of this narrative. That is not good for gold as it will give them confidence to test gold again. I’m not as confident as they are that everything is looking rosy and all the problems have been solved so I find myself agreeing with Adrian Ash that just like in 1999, this is a case of “peak hubris of policy-makers thinking they had abolished the boom-bust cycle” and that “gold continues to do what it does, rising when you need it and slipping when the financial world thinks it’s just a useless commodity”.

Former Gold Bug Turns Bearish: Http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35556

No Matter What Book You Read Do Not Buy Gold

Current Sentiment (note small specs INCREASING their shorts as price moves sideways this past week).

vOUmCk-300x67

COT positions

2106-300x153

gold spy

commod to stks

country hubris

Grave Dancing on Goldbugs

From Bloomberg (Bloomberg belongs to a limousine socialist, and is well-known for its pro-central banking/ pro-money printing and anti-gold editorial line. Some of the most ludicrous articles about gold ever published have appeared on Bloomberg):

Gold Slump Not Over as Speculators Go Net-Short for First Time – apparently Bloomberg’s authors have yet to hear about contrarian signals.

Gold Is Only Going to Get Worse (“Our survey shows a majority of traders and investors aren’t optimistic”) – indeed, Bloomberg seems to be blissfully unaware of contrarian sentiment analysis.

Gold Could Fall to the $1,000 Mark (video)

Good Luck Bargain Hunting for Gold Miners – naturally, gold miners are even more doomed than gold itself…

From the Wall Street Journal:

Let’s Get Real About Gold: It’s a Pet Rock – actually, as we have previously pointed out, it’s a door stop, not a pet rock. We should perhaps mention here what Jason Zweig, the author of this WSJ article, wrote in 2011 right at gold’s peak. From Mr. Zweig’s WSJ Article of September 17, 2011:

“Growing numbers of investing experts have been declaring that gold is a bubble: an insanely overvalued asset whose price is bound to burst. There is no basis for that opinion.”

With respect to gold miners (which since then are down by more than 80%) he opined:

“But there is one aspect of gold investing where it is possible to make rational estimates of value: the stocks of gold-mining companies. And, by historical standards, they seem cheap—based not on subjective forecasts of continuing fiscal apocalypse, but on objective measures of stock-market valuation.”

This is really a textbook example of how market sentiment works.

From Marketwatch:

The carnage isn’t over in gold, other metals-mining stocks

Study predicts gold could plunge to $350 an ounce (i.e., here come the extreme predictions, the inverse of the vast bullish consensus and the extreme bullish predictions that were made at the peak by gold bulls)

And all of this was finally crowned with the following pronouncement in the Washington Post:

Gold is doomed

Interestingly the author of this article, Matt O’Brian, actually gets one thing right, although his conclusion remains utterly wrong – he writes:

“When you think about it, a bet on gold is really a bet that the people in charge don’t know what they’re doing.”

That’s exactly what it is Mr. O’Brian. The wrong conclusion he comes to is this one:

”But economists do, for the most part, know what they’re doing.”

Yes, in some parallel universe perhaps. That people can profess such beliefs after the twin debacles of the tech and housing bust and after yet another giant asset bubble has been blown by these “economists who know what they are doing” is truly stunning. How blind and naïve can one possibly be? This article is a good example of statist propaganda. Our wise leaders know what they are doing! How can anyone doubt it!

Meanwhile, the mirror image of bearishness, we see:

Meb Faber ‏@MebFaber  Jul 29

2015 has seen the largest amount ever raised in a biotech IPO, as well as the largest valuation for bio IPO with no drugs. via @IPOtweet.  Can anyone guess how those investments will do over the next five years?

Additional Reading

A reader contributes: http://www.buffettfaq.com/ The blog has questions and answers of Buffett and Munger categorized by different parts of investing.

Common_Stocks_and_Uucommon_profits_and_other_writings.pdf

Also, worth a look: This Blog Analyzes Money Managers

Perpetual Capitulation

macrocosm-600x294

An ode to the end of a con

How long can deception go on?

When prices are set By banks printing debt

All trust in the “markets” is gone!

There is no stand-alone Narrative regarding gold today (June 2013), as there was in 1895. Today gold is understood from a Common Knowledge perspective only as a shadow or reflection of a powerful stand-alone Narrative regarding central banks, particularly the Fed … what I will call the Narrative of Central Banker Omnipotence. Like all effective Narratives it’s simple: central bank policy WILL determine market outcomes. There is no political or fundamental economic issue impacting markets that cannot be addressed by central banks. Not only are central banks the ultimate back-stop for market stability (although that is an entirely separate Narrative), but also they are the immediate arbiters of market outcomes. Whether the market goes up or down depends on whether central bank policy is positive or negative for markets. The Narrative of Central Banker Omnipotence does NOT imply that the market will always go up or that central bank policy will always support the market. It connotes that whatever the central bank policy might be, it will drive a market outcome; whatever the market outcome, it was driven by a central bank policy.

The stronger the Narrative of Central Banker Omnipotence, the more likely it is that the price of gold goes down. The weaker the Narrative – the less established the Common Knowledge that central bank policy determines market outcomes – the more likely it is that the price of gold will go up. In other words, it’s not central bank policy per se that makes the price of gold go up or down, it’s Common Knowledge regarding the ability of central banks to control economic outcomes that makes the price of gold go up or down.

Instead, the focus of the mainstream Narrative effort moved almost entirely towards what open-ended QE signaled for the Fed’s ability and resolve to create a self-sustaining economic recovery in the US. And it won’t surprise you to learn that this Narrative effort was overwhelmingly supportive of the notion that the Fed could and would succeed in this effort, that the Fed’s policies had proven their effectiveness at lifting the stock market and would now prove their effectiveness at repairing the labor market. Huzzah for the Fed!

See 6_30_13-HOW-GOLD-LOST-ITS-LUSTER-THE-ALL-WEATHER-FUND-GOT-WET-AND-OTHER-JUST-SO-STORIES  and   A Negative Narrative on Gold

gold IR

Negative News Tends to Cluster at MAJOR bottoms:

  1. Gold Could Go To $350
  2. Gold Sends a Message
  3. Gold Could Plunge to $800

My Jaw Dropped: Long gold, short US stocks, Short US Dollar

3-Gold-Optix-1024x641
low gold

Zeal073115A

commodities and emerging market equities

Commodities

Will the US Dollar Continue its Rampage Higher? 272660136-Raoul-Pal-GMI-July2015-MonthlyRate hikes and goldRate hikes are “bad” for gold?

rising rates bad for gold
Zweig Calls HighStocktoCommodityAtAllTimeHighInvestors above flee tangible assets for financial assets. Taken to an extreme, input costs for companies will go to zero and profit margins to infinity. Reality?

Biotech Fantasy2Biotech Fantasy

Capitulation IV; Analysts Like to Herd; Agony and Euphoria

Miner Sentiment

Bloomberg hating on gold. “Looks like a short”, “Nothing uglier”, “Not even an asset”…AFTER miners drop 90%.

What's uglier than gold

“The Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shares, or DUST, is up a whopping 99 percent in July.” via @

Grant on gold July 22 2015 Zweig   The same analyst who suggested buying miners within 1% of the all-time top in Sept. 17, 2011 now says gold is a “doorstop” in July 17, 2015.  NOW, he tells me!  Journalists chase price and sentiment.

Zweig

Goldman sees gold to $1,000 (July 2015) and Goldman sees gold at 1840 by end 2012  Note a pattern?

gold_10_year_o_b_usd

Media piles on late in trend:

Perhaps today the absurdity has reached the apex of its crescendo with this utterly ridiculous “letter to gold bug” published by Marketwatch:   It’s time to surrender and let the yellow metal fall to its bear market low

Better analysis: Gold Warns Again and Heavy wears the crown

yen and gold

Amazon Beats

AMZN

amzn 1 yr

How analysts react after Amazon reports–follow the herd recommendations regardless of price. Analysis?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-24/wall-street-cranks-up-its-outlook-for-amazon-after-it-delivers-monster-earnings-report

The headlines reported that AMZN’s sales were up 20% year over year for Q2 and that net income had swung from a loss of $123mm to a profit of $92 million yr/yr for Q2.  While those numbers are what they are, sales growth from Q1 to Q2 was a mere 2.9% – pretty much in-line with the rate of inflation.

The media propagandists attributed AMZN’s highly “surprising” quarter to big gains in its AWS business segment, which is its cloud-computing business.  However, if we drill down into the numbers made available in its 8-K, we find that the AWS segment represents just 7.7% of AMZN’s revenue stream vs. 6.6% of revenues in Q1.   Sure seems like a lot of manic hype over well less than 10% of AMZN’s business model.

As it turns out, AMZN’s AWS business model, like everything else it does, is seeded in low quality sources of revenue that will ultimately prove to be unsustainable.  Why?  See this comment sent to me by someone who read my Amazon research report and who used to specialize in high tech accounting for Silicon Valley start-ups:

I audited many of the high fliers that crashed and burned, took companies public & was at the printers the day the bubble really burst which ultimately tabled that IPO…Amazon Web Services is growing by leaps and bounds and a significant amount of those $’s are coming from venture backed start-ups. Almost the entire Silicon Valley and other startups outside the Valley use AWS. Venture backed startups have exploded just as AWS revenues have exploded…That segment of their business will get walloped which right now seems to be a main source of their operating income.  

Read more: Dot con

Notice the difference between mining stocks and Amazon–Deja-Vu of the late 1999’s/2000.  Remember the music Sugar Ray

amzn fomo

bezos_laughing

Capitulation Part II

Gold-Miners-vs-200-MA

Gold-Miners-Compound-Return (1)

An Epic Bear Market in miners

Mining securities are not the thing for widows and orphans or country clergymen, or unworldly people of any kind to own. But for a businessman, who must take risks in order to make money; who will buy nothing without careful, thorough investigation; and who will not risk more than he is able to lose, there is no other investment in the market today as tempting as mining stock.” – Charles H. Dow (1879)

dust gdxj

There is NO REASON to own gold! (NOW, they tell us!)

No hope for gold holders

Global dollar stress might be causes gold price crashes.

The “price action” for gold is bad!  The price of gold went down.

dollar mg

Why not be happy and say that the dollar buys you more gold because of this:

Chart-2-basis-and-cobasis

The holders of physical bullion are not selling, but futures traders are–see the red line rising which is the co-basis.  If I hold gold in stock, but sell futures to lock in the price, then co-basis represents the difference between the bid price for spot and the offer price for futures.   Leveraged futures traders are selling futures but bullion holders are not de-stocking (selling).  The selling in gold futures has brought epic extremes in prices of miners relative to gold/silver. EPIC quantitative easing may be a factor.

Video: Sellers in action:SELL ‘EM!

BAML commodities

20150718_yield_0

2015jul21xau1

Does Gold represent good “value?”

Gold to S&P 500


Ratio gold to sp

Only you can answer that question. Don’t confuse gold (money) as an investment. If you couldn’t find a margin of safety in the current stock market, you might own gold because you believe gold relative to dollars is safer, holds purchasing power better, more stable, etc.

See Value Investors Hate Gold

For those technical wizards out there, note that silver did not “confirm” the price decline in gold yesterday.

Capitulation

Just remember (thanks www.monetray-metals.com)

Batman-knows-best

Reversion to the Mean and Using History as a Guide

What’s going to happen is, very soon, we are going to run out of petroleum, and everything depends on petroleum. And there go the school buses. there go the fire engines. The food trucks will come to a halt. This is the end of the world. Kurt Vonnegut, Jr. in Rolling Stone (August 2006)goldOil

 

 

 

 It is very difficult to predict energy markets. In thirty-five years in the industry, I have never seen a forecast of the future that has been right. Jim Rogers, CEO of Duke Energy “U.S. Boom Won’t Hurt Australian LNG, Says Duke” (The Australian, 26th February 2013)

Gold is headed to $700. When will gold crash again and natural-gas-natural-gas-natural-gas

ung chart

gold to nat gas

People who purport to foresee, in other words, characteristically “see” the future exclusively through the lens of the present: if today it’s sunny and warm, then they’re upbeat and anticipate that tomorrow’s weather will be even more pleasant; but if it’s presently storming and cold, they are downcast and expect that the gloom will persist and worsen.

On May 6th, 2008, when the price of Brent crude was $125 per barrel and had doubled during the previous 12 months a Goldman Sachs analyst:

“I would suggest that the likelihood of that happening sooner has increased tremendously … sometime in summer,” Jeffrey Currie told an oil and gas conference in the Malaysian capital, referring to oil at $150 a barrel.

Goldman Sachs, the most active investment bank in energy markets and one of the first to point to triple-digit oil more than two years ago — a once unthinkable level — said last month oil could shoot up to $200 within the next two years as part of a “super spike.” Oil to $150 to $200 a barrel, May 2008

Quite the contrary: during 2009 it collapsed below $50–and within a few years it doubled. oil

Don’t take “expert” opinion seriously and the blunt truth is that neither you nor I nor anybody else can know the economic and financial future.  Yet investors must ACT TODAY in light of their expectations–however misplaced–about tomorrow.  So what do we do?  What’s happened historically can OCCASIONALLY (not always) provide credible clues about what might subsequently occur.

To learn more,  a must read: jul15_newsletter RTM. 

The author combines a fundamental understanding of the supply/demand dynamics of oil (inelastic supply/demand) and the past history of oil prices. It is that COMBINATION that helps with expectations.

Take the time to understand his analysis of RTM in the oil market. It is an expectation not a prediction.  A supplement to this might be: Pzena on oil 4th Q 2014 (the marginal cost producer in oil).

My attempt at gold: Estimating Where Gold will go using history as a guide and Historical-Gold-Prices

Gold prices are, in my mind, more difficult to analyze since the production of gold does not influence price because the stock to flow ratio is so high (180,000 tones to 2,500 tons per year). The reservation demand for gold is what drives the price. Does gold mining matter? For an analysis of gold: In Gold we Trust 2015 – Extended Version (e)

Also, see gold-when-will-it-crash-again  The author believes that gold is a commodity that went into a bubble and, like 1980, will decline 65% to below $700.

gold chart

fear chart

Have a great weekend!

The Floating Kilogram

The following is adapted from an interview by Dawn Bennett, host of the radio show “Financial Myth Busting,” with the editor of The New York Sun, Seth Lipsky. The broadcast aired March 8:

 

The Fallacy of Goldbugs or Understanding the Law of Supply and Demand

Gold Bugs

F. A. Hayek: “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about they imagine they can design.”

 

As a preview to understand how the law of demand and supply works see Trading Places in the Pits  Hint: Are there more buyers than sellers?

Thus you can explain the fallacy of Eric Sprott’s sentiment that demand is overwhelming supply:

We see almost 60 tons a week being delivered on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Well, you start annualizing 60 tons a week you’re talking 3,000 tons a year now. We saw 94 tons of gold go into India in September. We saw the Russian Central Bank buy 37 tons of gold in September. I mean I could come up with numbers that might suggest that we’ve got 400 tons a week of demand. And we only got 230 tons a week of mine supply. And I’ve only gotten to three data points. I haven’t even gone to the rest of the world.

We’ve now created a situation unfortunately in the market where between high frequency trading and algorithms and interference by the planers they can make things happen that looks like everything is OK. And it’s the “OK” part where I think we can really relate to gold not being allowed to go up. Because that’s the canary in the coal mine. If gold was above $2,000 we’d all be wondering: What the hell is going on here?  And so they haven’t allowed it to happen.

But by suppressing the price — and one of the great things about a price of $1,100/oz is that you can buy a lot of gold at $1,100 versus $1,900 — you can buy almost 50%-60% more gold than you could three years ago with the same amount of money. And you can buy 3x the silver. With the same amount of money!

http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/88731/eric-sprott-global-gold-demand-overwhelming-supply  35 minute podcast.

Of course, demand must equal supply or supply equal demand at a CLEARING PRICE.  Go to pages 137 to 138 to understand Reservation Demand (critical in understanding a high stock to flow good like gold) Man Economy and State by Rothbard

If you don’t understand price moves against you, then scream manipulation on price declines. But where was the “manipulation” from 2000 to 2011 while gold rose in price vs. the U.S. Dollar by 1,600 dollars!  You are a fool either way. You trade in a rigged market or you complain that you are buying a good that is artificially depressed. You are subsidized to buy gold at “below” market (read manipulated) prices yet you complain.

The amount that a seller will withhold on the market is termed their reservation demand. This is not, like the demand for a a good in exchange, this is a demand to hold stock.  Thus, the concept of a “demand to hold a stock of goods” will always include both demand factors, it will include the demand for the good in exchange by nonpossessors, plus the demand to hold the stock by the possessors.

I strongly suggest that if you wish to improve as an investor that you read Rothbard’s book along with the free study guide.  The implication that demand is overwhelming supply with a falling price is absurd!  Yet, Goldbugs howl incessantly that the price is being suppressed since demand is “overwhelming supply.”  Nonsense, everything equals AT A PRICE.

Did you view the video of trading places above? Where was Louis’ Reservation Demand? SELL 200 APRIL ORANGE JUICE AT 142!

Most analysts do not understand the law of supply and demand

Does the Monetary Base Drive the Gold Price?

ECB-could-buy-gold-to-revive-economy.html  Will that work?

Low UAE gold prices set off buying surge  Does that imply rising prices?

gold_MB_since2002_081014

 

Gold wasn’t always in the dumps.  It rose right along with equities, indeed outperformed equities, from the 2009 Great Recession bottom – when central banks the world over first began implementing their unconventional monetary policies – straight through to its September 2011 top.  The reason we think it did is quite simple.  Coming out of the Great Recession, central bank credibility – their ability to “pull us out” of the Recession – was being severely questioned by investors. Thus, a good portion of investor money found its way into gold. That changed in 2011. Underwritten by these same central bank easy money policies, the as yet unresolved malinvestments of the Housing Bubble turn Credit Bust turn Great Recession, which were in the process of a healthy liquidation, were short circuited, while new, yet to be revealed malinvestments (we think the largest being anything in and around financial engineering) were starting to bear fruit.  The belief took hold that the heroic policies of these central banks were finally working, finally restoring long term vitality to the economy. Gold then sunk while equities marched ever higher. So here we are…

http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpollaro/2014/10/12/central-bank-credibility-the-equity-markets-and-gold/

Gold Bars