Yearly Archives: 2012

Money Manager Presentations; Investment Philosophy; and Words of Wisdom

Columbia Graduate Business School established a Graham-and-Dodd chair, but oddly assigned it to Bruce Greenwald. Greenwald, an MIT-trained economist had married into money, made a million or two in bond futures, lost a similar sum in oils, and quit at the insistence of his in-laws. “At investing I’m a complete idiot,” he noted, rather affably, adding that it was speculating that turned him on. He invited Buffett to give  a guest lecture but did not think him imitable. “I’m sympathetic to the Graham-and-Dodd point of view,” Greenwald said, “but I’m not really a Graham-and-Dodder.” (Buffett by Roger Lowenstein-1995)

Notes on Money Manager Presentations

A reader graciously shared his notes on the VIC in Omaha (2012). I added supplementary materials

VIC_2012_Brian_Bares on the Small Cap Advantage

VIC_2012_Cara_Denver_Jacobsen 10 Years in Micro Cap Land

VIC_2012_Damodaran and Investment Philosophies:Damordaran 200 pages on Inv Philosophies

VIC_2012_Francisco_Garcia_Parames Finding European Value

VIC_2012_Jeff_Auxier Value of Cumulative Research

VIC_2012_Jeff_Stacey Global Value Investing

VIC_2012_Lauren_Templeton John Templeton’s Strategies

VIC_2012_Lisa_O-Dell_Rapuano Value Investing with a Contrarian Bent (Rec!)

VIC_2012_Pat_Dorsey on Moats (Important to read)

VIC_2012_Paul_Larson Morningstar Stockinvestor Newsletter Editor

VIC_2012_Robert_Hagstrom Investing: The Last Liberal Art. He recommends, How to Read a Book by Adler

VIC_2012_Seng_Hock_Tan Value Investing in Asia.

Words of Wisdom

VII_WOW

As always, adapt to your style, personality and aptitudes.

Humor:

My Research Director: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXromsE-S7g

My shocked face: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8edTjSx1nM&feature=related

Kodak-Polaroid Case Study from Chapter 13 of Competition Demystified

Case Study of Kodak’s Entry Strategy into Polaroid’s Market

HBS Case Study Part 1: Polaroid and Kodak 376_266 _1984 CS

HBS Case Study Part 2: Kodak vs Polaroid CS

This case illustrates Kodak’s ill-conceived entry strategy against Polaroid–a strong incumbent with competitive advantages.

This article http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/editors/27508/ shows why Kodak descended into bankruptcy. In my opinion, Kodak might have generated more shareholder value by focusing on protecting its film market while managing the business in run-off made by returning capital to shareholders. If Kodak wanted to compete in other markets, perhaps it could have spun-off subsidiarities to allow shareholders and other investors to have more choice in allocating capital.

Analysis

Chapter 13 Kodak and Polaroid Case Study Analysis

George Carlin on America; Buffett Notes; Aristotle on Ethics; Valuation and more

George Carlin, the Truth Teller

George Carlin: You have no Rights:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWiBt-pqp0E&feature=related

George Carlin on Choice in America: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKQs-jDI7j8&feature=related. Fascism won’t come to America in brown shirts and black boots but in yellow shirts with smiley faces on them.

Aristotle on Ethics

Judge men by their actions (one minute video):  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5quLP3rHxwQ&feature=related

Buffett Notes on 2012 Berkshire Shareholder Meeting

Notes on Recent Berkshire Hathaway Meeting (30 pages): http://covestreetcapital.com/Blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Notes-from-the-2012-Berkshire-Hathaway-Annual-Meeting.pdf

Herding Lizards on Wall Street:

The implication is that “Markets are irrational because of quirks in human nature,” Burnham explains in his 2005 book Mean Markets and Lizard Brains.

In this very interesting book Burnham explains that our lizard brains are pattern seeking and backward looking, which again was handy when we lived in caves, but not so great for managing our 401ks.

The fact is, without the constant inflation of fiat money, people would (or have to) spend very little time thinking about their money or savings. Squirreling a little money out of every paycheck would suffice for retirement preparation.

But the modern world of central-bank hyperplanning, hyperbailing, and hyperprinting makes that impossible.

http://mises.org/daily/6033/Herding-Lizards

Wall Street Traps for the Unwary: http://www.thereformedbroker.com/

Due Process Abandoned

The Obama administration now claims the authority to kill American citizens without a trial, without notice, and without any chance for targets to legally object. The “targeted killing” program of George W. Bush’s administration has been radically expanded to include Americans far from any war zone.

http://www.fff.org/freedom/fd1110c.asp

More on Buffett and his plans for forced redistribution: http://www.jamesaltucher.com/

Valuation

Jae Jun has borrowed some of my notes on Greenwald in his posts which I encourage anyone to do. His blog is an example of someone who is seriously committed to self-learning and teaching/sharing what he discovers. Bravo!  That said, no one is a guru so check  his posts with your own common sense and independent thinking. For example, replacement value is extremely difficult to do accurately.

http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/valuation-methods/valuation-matters-7-ways-value-stocks/

http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/valuation-methods/how-to-asset-reproduction-value-analysis/

Much more

www.simoleonsense.com

 

Case Study Analysis of Kiwi Airlines Entry Strategy

Kiwi Airline Case Study

This is an important case for learning about successful and unsuccessful entry strategies.

The Kiwi Case Study was provided:Kiwi Airlines CS

The analysis is here:Chapter 12

On to Kodak Takes on Polaroid (Chapter 13 in Competition Demystified).

John Templeton’s Investment Letters; Investing and Valuation Blogs

John Templeton’s Client Letters, Videos and more

http://whatwouldjohntempletonsay.com/category/money

Valuation Blog:

A blog on Free Cash Flow analysis of Master Limited Partnerships

http://www.wiseanalysis.com/category/by-company/ngls/

About this Website

The website explains how distributable cash flow (DCF) is defined and why it is important to analyze it and derive a sustainable measure of DCF. Results reported by master limited partnerships (MLPs) are analyzed. comparisons of reported DCF to sustainable DCF are generated, and various coverage ratios and reports analyzing performance are generated. Simplified sources and uses of funds statements are presented to focus readers’ attention on key cash flow items. The website also features general articles about MLPs and about other topics of interest to yield-focused investors.
More detail on employment:http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/
http://mjperry.blogspot.c

Bronte Capital’s disappointment with Berkshire’s Shareholder meeting: www.brontecapital.com

Regrets of the dying:

http://www.inspirationandchai.com/Regrets-of-the-Dying.html

Interesting Blogs on History and Economics

Classes on History and economics

http://www.libertyclassroom.com/  Courses on History/Economics
http://www.libertyclassroom.com/category/blog/  Sample Course Videos
http://www.burtfolsom.com/  A blog on history
http://mises.org/Literature/  A free library on Austrian Economics

Housekeeping: New Case Study added to Kodak-Polaroid CS

Polaroid – Kodak 18 page Case Study Added

Yesterday in this post http://wp.me/p1PgpH-HI I forgot to add the HBS Case Study Part 1 Polaroid and Kodak 376_266 _1984 CS (18 pages) to the case. I also added it to that post.

This is an important case on a poor entry strategy against a strong incumbent.

SNPK has ANOTHER bad week, KIWI and Polaroid/Kodak Case Studies; Mastery

Another blood bath for “shareholders”

The saga continues as the scam/promotion unwinds inevitably. The fascinating aspect of this study is how the boom bust cycle of SNPK looks similar to the

NASDAQ’s boom/bust cycle of 1993 to 2002.

Note the rise from 1992, then accelerated rise in 1998 to mid-2000 that reached a crescendo and then the collapse in price in 2000/2002–leading to the slow decline as frustrated and stubborn investors throw in the towel. But in the case of SNPK, since it is a promote, there will be no rebirth–just a quote of $0 bid and $.000001 offer by next year.

NASDAQ

Case Studies

This week has been hectic as you can see from this video of my research team at work:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pblj3JHF-Jo.

My next posts on Monday or Tuesday will be on the analysis of our two cases studies in Competition Demystified (Chapters 12 and 13)

Anyone want a crack first?

Chapter 12: Fear of Not Flying: Kiwi Enters the Airline Industry

  1. Describe Kiwi’s entry strategy and explain why it was initially successful. Where did they go wrong and why?
  2. What is the evidence that there were no existing barriers to entry in the airline industry in the 1980s?

Kiwi Airlines CS

Chapter 13: No Instant Gratification: Kodak Takes on Polaroid.

  1. Detail Polaroid’s competitive advantages in the instant photography market.
  2. What were Polaroid’s responses to Kodak’s launch into the instant photography market?
  3. Was there an alternative approach for Kodak that might have been more successful?
  4. If you were running Kodak in the 1970s, what strategy would you have followed—given all the benefits of hindsight?

Kodak vs Polaroid CS

Mastery

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpDdaC1_UGg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyRZMj8mkm4&feature=related

What can you apply to the world of investing?

Have a Great Weekend!

Nigerian Email Scams

Gee, I wonder why no one ever claims their Nigerian lottery winnings?

There is a sucker born every minute.–P.T. Barnum

Some sources claim the quote is most likely from famous con-man Joseph (“Paper Collar Joe”) Bessimer,[1] and other sources say it was actually uttered by David Hannum, spoken in reference to Barnum’s part in the Cardiff Gianthoax. Hannum, who was exhibiting the “original” giant and had unsuccessfully sued Barnum for exhibiting a copy and claiming it was the original, was referring to the crowds continuing to pay to see Barnum’s exhibit even after both it and the original had been proven to be fakes.

Documentary on Nigerian Scams http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0e-pPfITts

Who is the fool at the table? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lh8dcvj-0NA

My lucky day?

Another Nigerian Email hits my inbox with a $10.5 million pound sterling offer.

ATM international credit settlement Office of the director of operation Office of the presidency

Attention Honorable Beneficiary     That’s me! Will I be the Moogoo?

This is to officially notify you that we have verified your contract Inheritances file and found out that why you have not received your payment is because you have not fulfilled the obligations given to you in respect of your contract/inheritance payment.  

Secondly, we have been informed that you are still dealing with the none officials in the bank, all your attempt to secure the release of the fund to you. We wish to advise you that such an illegal act like this have to stop if you wish to receive your payment since we have decided to bring a solution to your problem. Right now we have arranged your payment through our swift card payment center Asia pacific that is the latest instruction FROM MR. PRESIDENT,GOODLUCK EBELE JONATHAN (GCFR) PRESIDENT FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA AND FEDERAL MINISTRY OF FINANCE.       His Momma named him Goodluck?

This card center will send you an ATM card which you will use to withdraw your money in any ATM machine in any part of the world, but the maximum withdrawer is Ten thousand five hundred Pounds per day, so if you like to receive your fund this way please let us know by contacting the card payment center and also send the following information to her in order to proceed immediately:    $10,500 per day!? That won’t even cover my Lap Dances at the club.  I will demand a higher payout. 

1. Full name 2. Phone and fax number 3. Your Address 4. Your age and current occupation 5. A copy of your identification 6. Social Security Number  7. Passport number. Bank Account Information.   Sounds easy!

However, kindly find below the contact person: Mr. Henry Onyemem Director, ATM payment department Email: henryonyemem87@yahoo.co.jp

The ATM card payment center has been mandated to issue out (GBP£10, 500,000.00) Ten million five hundred thousand pounds as part payment for this fiscal year 2012. Also for your Information, you have to stop any further communication with any other person(s)or office(s) to avoid any hitches in receiving your at payment(A Code of Silence!) For oral discussion, i can be reached on or email me back as soon as you receive this important message for further direction and also update me on any development from the above mentioned office.

Have in mind that because of impostors, we hereby issued you our code of Conduct, which is (ATM-154) so you have to indicate this code when contacting the card center by using it as your subject.

Best Regards,

Mrs. Ngozi Okonjo Iweala Ministers Of Finance Nigeria

Could that be a scam?  I like the idea of receiving $10.5 million pounds per this year. What might I receive the following year? What discount rate should I use to capitalize earnings? Do you think I could go public?

Personal tales of scamming:http://www.yrad.com/

Details of Nigerian Scams:http://www.crimes-of-persuasion.com/Crimes/Business/nigerian.htm

FBI info on scams:http://www.fbi.gov/scams-safety/fraud

Laugh now, but remember who is on the other side of every transaction you make in the stock or bond market. Do you have an edge? How and why?

Paul vs. Paul Debate

http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/04/ron-paul-vs-paul-krugman-exciting-debate-on-video-with-transcript/

www.valuewalk.com is a recommended blog. Several readers kindly sent me links to the Ron Paul vs. Paul Krugman debate.  I am biased toward Ron Paul, but for the life of me I could not understand what Krugman was saying. Perhaps using reason will not convince a religious fanatic.

I stopped reading half way through the discussion, because I knew Ron Paul’s positions but couldn’t understand the logic behind Krugman’s contrary position.  Do you? A few examples:

Krugman’s response to Ron Paul:

You can’t leave the government out of monetary policy. If you think we’re going to let it set itself, it doesn’t happen. If you think you can avoid the government from setting monetary policy, you’re living in the world that was 150 years ago. We have an economy in which money is not just green pieces of paper with faces of dead presidents on them. Money is a part of the financial system that includes a variety of assets – we’re not quite sure where the line between money and non-money is. It’s a continuum.”

What is he saying. Getting the government out of monetary policy would be like regressing? A fall into a primitive state?  Krugman makes an “Elephants can fly” assertion.

Has a monetary system worked without government control? Yes, in the brief period of a classical gold standard pre-WWI.  However, fractional reserve banking (ponzi finance) operated so, of course, booms and busts would not be eliminated. Another assertion without facts. Fiduciary media existed during the gold standard era.

“History tells us that in fact a completely unmanaged economy is subject to extreme volatility, subject to extreme downturns. I know this legend that some people like that the Great Depression was somehow caused by the government or the Federal Reserve, but that’s not true. The reality is it was a market economy run amok, which happens repeatedly…I’m a believer in capitalism. I want the market economy to be left as free as it can be, but there are limits. You do need the government to step in to stabilize. Depressions are a bad thing for capitalism and it’s the role of the government to make sure they don’t happen, or if they do happen, they don’t last too long.”

So let me try to understand……an unmanaged economy is subject to extreme volatility. But with the Fed operating since 1913, we have had the Great Depression, Inflation of the 1970s, Ultra high interest rates of the 1980s, credit crisis of 2007-2009, a managed economy (the FED cartelizing the fractional reserve banking system and suppressing interest rates) is LESS volatile? What amount of failed economic policies due to intervention would you need to say–this is a failure?

The Federal Reserve helped inflate the boom: http://library.mises.org/books/Murray%20N%20Rothbard/Americas%20Great%20Depression.pdf

Since the inception of the Federal Reserve System in 1913, the supply of money and bank credit in America has been totally in the control of the federal government, a control that has been further strengthened by the U.S. repudiating the domestic gold standard in 1933, as well as the gold standard behind the dollar in foreign transactions in 1968 and finally in 1971. With the gold standard abandoned, there is no necessity for the Federal Reserve or its controlled banks to redeem dollars in gold, and so the Fed may expand the supply of paper and bank dollars to its heart’s content. The more it does so, the more prices tend to accelerate upward, dislocating the economy and bringing impoverishment to those people whose incomes fall behind in the inflationary race.

The Austrian theory further shows that inflation is not the only unfortunate consequence of governmental expansion of the supply of money and credit. For this expansion distorts the structure of investment and production, causing excessive investment in unsound projects in the capital goods industries. This distortion is reflected in the well-known fact that, in every boom period, capital goods prices rise further than the prices of consumer goods.

See what Graham and Buffett had to say about booms and busts:A Study of Market History through Graham Babson Buffett and Others

Krugman seems neither to understand Austrian Business Cycle Theory nor economics (“ABCT”): http://mises.org/daily/4993 and http://mises.org/daily/3579

Krugman is constantly shifting arguments:http://mises.org/daily/5086

Krugman’s response:

“I want to say something about Milton Friedman here because if you actually read what he wrote in his writing for economists, as opposed to some of his loose popular writings, he actually said that the Federal Reserve was responsible for the Great Depression because it didn’t go enough. Friedman’s complaint was that the Federal Reserve did not print enough money. I know this. When Ben Bernanke was talking about the helicopter, he was taking that from Milton Friedman. That was really his idea. The state of the economic debate in America right now Milton Friedman would count on the far left of monetary policy.”

Milton Friedman was advocating for the government to intervene and prevent the market clearing. But why was a non-interventionist policy during the vicious 1920/21 depression so successful:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czcUmnsprQI. Both theory, common sense and empirical evidence expose Krugman’s and Friedman’s nonsense.

Here is a seven minute video that explains booms and busts: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk