Category Archives: Competitive Analysis

Value Vault Update; Approved for Transplant and Emerging Market Value Investing

Value Vault Update

Many have been having troubles opening the Value Vault. The main problem is the size of the folder; there is a 2 Gig limit. Splitting folders means multiple emailing of keys. I get 10 requests a day so time constraints make this a hassle.  Yes, there is Google, Dropbox and many other choices than Yousendit.com.

To make this blog more assessable for learning, I will post the videos up on this blog and the important books. All case studies, documents and more obscure books, I will place in a folder (less than 2 Gigs)  or two and then email out all the keys.

This blog will no longer have advertising on it. The videos will have the corresponding case studies and financials for ease of study.  Once that is up, you have about 10 valuation case studies with videos to develop your skills along with all the prior posts.

I have all your emails, so you won’t be forgotten when I email out the new keys. You will see the videos going up by tomorrow.

I have been finally approved as a kidney donor so I wait for the date of my surgery. More blood samples, CAT scans and X-rays have been taken of me than any lab rat. Ready to go so the recipient doesn’t have to suffer dialysis or death.

http://www.mayoclinic.org/kidney-transplant/what-is-a-kidney-transplant.html

Quiz for emerging market value investors

Your company has been given a concession to open a resort on the North coast of Cuba. What recommendation would you make to your investment committee? What should your required rate of return be?

Poverty Amidst Splendor or Lessons in Tyranny. Alexander Roepers, Activist Investor

There is very little the privileged class has that everyone else doesn’t have, except money.–Alex Castro (son of Fidel Castro)

Tremeda Hambre! http://youtu.be/ssIv2c-u7R0  This Cuban interrupts an interview with a Cuban Reggae artist, yelling that he is hungry.  He represents life in Cuba for the majority.

Life in Cuba for the masses:http://www.therealcuba.com/Videos.htm. Grim.

Of course, for a dictator to impoverish his country to desperation while holding onto power, there must be a special few to keep him in power.

Splendor amidst poverty with Cuba’s Gilded Elite http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/09/splendor-amid-poverty-gallery-nights-with-cubas-gilded-elite/261956/

To understand how to take and hold power, read Machievelli http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niccol%C3%B2_Machiavelli and my recent favorite:

And for more detail, The dictator’s handbook and blog (Satire!): http://dictatorshandbook.net/

Lessons for investors

Why bother? Well, those lessons will illuminate why and how there are so few gifted CEOs but so many highly paid CEOs with miniscule tie to performance in corporate America (though the situation is better than in Japan). Packed, insider boards and benchmarking with diffuse, ignorant shareholders might be the some of the reasons.

Pay for Performance Puzzle: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/sep2009/pi20090923_783858.htm

Please be in touch if any of you become a tyrant in a small, hot country.

Alexander Roepers

http://greenbackd.com/2012/09/05/alexander-roepers-gentleman-activist/

Visit www.greenbackd.com for discounts to this year’s Value Investors Conference.

Help Buffett! Will See’s (Candy) New Strategy for Growth Work?

http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2012/08/22/sees-candies-buffett-berkshire/?iid=HP_River

“In California the girls slap you when you bring Russell Stover, and kiss you when you bring See’s.” –Buffett

Think about how you would advise the CEO. Think strategically. A big hint is posted at the end of this article to help you analyze this case. If you disagree with the hint, please post your reasons.

If I wanted to get Mr. Buffett’s attention, I would buy one share of Berkshire’s B shares and write a letter of _____________ as a shareholder and outline why. Say you will guzzle Coke and scarf down gobs of See’s candy while you drive out to Omaha in a GEICO insured car to present to See’s management. Tell him as a shareholder you burn incense and pray for his health every day.

I can almost promise he will write you back if your letter is composed intelligently. Add the hint on the bottom of this post as reinforcement.

Thanks ZG for the heads up on this article. Another chance to learn!

The secrets of See’s Candies

August 22, 2012: 5:00 AM ET

Warren Buffett calls it a “dream business.” Cher, Bill Gates, and millions of Californians love it. Now CEO Brad Kinstler is ready to take the quaint candy maker east. Will it work?

By Daniel Roberts, reporter

See's CEO Brad Kinstler selects a Toffee-ette at the See's store at its Los Angeles plant.

See’s CEO Brad Kinstler selects a Toffee-ette at the See’s store at its Los Angeles plant.

FORTUNE — The plant workers of See’s Candies start arriving each day at 4 a.m. In Los Angeles and San Francisco they stand at their stations and drizzle fondant onto maple pecan bonbons or count the nuts in each almond royal. They spread rum nougat into flat pans or break up chunks of cashew brittle by hand. All the while, they wear the signature white lab coats with their first names embroidered on the front in black stitching — similar to the ones in the famous 1952 I Love Lucy episode, for which Lucille Ball trained at See’s. By 9 a.m., many of the workers break for lunch.

Meanwhile, in the Kiewit Building on Farnam Street in Omaha, Warren Buffett is largely unaware of what is beginning at See’s. His Berkshire Hathaway group (BRKA) acquired the little candy company in 1972 — exactly 40 years ago — for $25 million. The boxed-chocolate industry is small, with total sales estimated at just under $2 billion a year in the U.S., and does not often grow year to year, although it is up 4% in 2012. See’s, which had sales of $376 million in 2011, $83 million of it profit, represents an infinitesimal drop in the bucket of Buffett’s other holdings, which include fat stakes in American Express (AXP), Coca-Cola (KO), and IBM (IBM). But of all his investments, the regional candy maker remains Buffett’s fondest.

MORE: Berkshire Hathaway – No. 7 on the Fortune 500

Of course, the Oracle doesn’t worry himself with the day-to-day management of companies he owns; his biggest act of participation in four decades was in 2006 when he installed longtime Berkshire insurance man Brad Kinstler to run things after Chuck Huggins, who had been with the company 54 years and was CEO for 33 of them, retired.

Now Kinstler, 59, is embarking on a plan to spread out across the country. You may know See’s from airport kiosks on trips to the West Coast, but of the company’s 211 shops, none are east of Chicago. In the next three years See’s plans to open stores in states like Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, and in Washington, D.C. Whether it will be successful is uncertain; past attempts have not worked that well. The plan means risk — though measured — for a business that, like Buffett himself, is usually about patience and caution. But Kinstler is more determined than anyone before him to make it happen.

Workers at See's Carson, Calif., packing facility

Workers at See’s Carson, Calif., packing facility

Charles A. See, a salesman from Ontario, opened the first See’s shop in 1921 in Los Angeles. With its now iconic black-and-white tiles, it was made to look like the kitchen of his widowed mother, Mary. Today the shops still offer the same experience: walk-in customers can sample any piece. “That’s the best marketing we have,” says chief financial officer Ken Scott, who has been at See’s 34 years. “If people try it, they’ll love it.” It’s true. Maybe it’s the fresh ingredients (See’s uses no added preservatives) or the California water, but there is something about See’s. The candy tastes exceedingly good.    (Proprietary Product?)

Warren Buffett has loved See’s since he first tried it in 1971, after hearing about it from his West Coast colleague Charlie Munger, who in turn heard about it from Robert Flaherty, an outside investment counselor at Blue Chip Stamps, a trading-stamp company Berkshire had invested in the year before. Munger and Buffett now say they were stingy in their initial offer, but Munger’s friend Ira Marshall convinced him it was an unusual company, worth spending more to get. “Ira really shamed us,” admits Munger. “Warren and I were too cheap.” So Munger persuaded Buffett to buy. They paid up.

Munger, sitting in the reading room of his L.A. home — the 88-year-old is currently enjoying a biography of Deng Xiaoping — ticks off a lot to like about See’s from a management perspective. The company has changed very little in 91 years, incurs low overhead, and can raise prices by up to 5% each year, thanks to brand loyalty. People are fanatical about See’s (read the reviews of any of its candies on its website), and Buffett is no exception. “When you were a 16-year-old, you took a box of candy on your first date with a girl and gave it either to her parents or to her,” he says. “In California the girls slap you when you bring Russell Stover, and kiss you when you bring See’s.”

As head of marketing for See's Candies, Tracy Cioffi is trying to win over a younger generation of chocolate lovers.

As head of marketing for See’s Candies, Tracy Cioffi is trying to win over a younger generation of chocolate lovers.

Over the years Buffett’s strategy had often been to invest in undervalued “cigar stub” companies. See’s was different: a strong brand that Californians loved. He has called See’s a “dream business,” one capable of greatly increasing its profits without needing much new capital. Berkshire is therefore able to allocate most of See’s profits to whatever businesses or investments Buffett thinks best.

And Buffett finds additional lessons in See’s. For starters, it has taught him about branded goods. “It’s one thing to own stock in a Coca-Cola or something, but when you’re actually in the business of making determinations about opening stores and pricing decisions, you learn from it,” he tells Fortune, sitting in his office with a box of See’s chocolate lollipops (his favorite) on his desk. “We have made a lot more money out of See’s than shows from the earnings of See’s, just by the fact that it’s educated me, and I’m sure it’s educated Charlie too.”

See’s employees feel the same kind of affinity for the company. Most have been there for decades, and they get so delighted talking about working there that they make Google (GOOG) employees look like detainees. Beatriz Romero has been wrapping Scotch kisses (a fresh marshmallow covered in caramel and wrapped tightly like taffy) for 41 years, and she is not an unusual case. The upper-level team is also made up of See’s lifers. Eileen Duag (pronounced doo-ag), vice president of product, has been there 32 years. Johnnie Woods, “customer centricity” director, for 24. Dan Dias, who runs order processing, has 17. They consider Kinstler, with his almost seven years, brand-new.

Kinstler began his career at Cornhusker Casualty, an Omaha insurance company Berkshire opened in 1970. In 1991 he went to run Cypress Insurance in San Mateo, Calif., for nine years before moving on to Fechheimer Brothers, a Berkshire-owned, Cincinnati-based uniform maker. In 2005, Buffett and Munger tapped him to move back to California and take over See’s. Kinstler says he knew little about the business, but jokes, “As soon as I found out I get free candy …”

MORE: Warren and Charlie and the chocolate factory

That vanilla sense of humor belies the ambitious steps Kinstler is now taking to bring Mary See’s recipes to the rest of the country. Until the early 2000s, See’s stayed west, except for a brief stint in the ’80s when Huggins opened a few stores in St. Louis and Texas. They struggled because of competition from the likes of Fannie May (no, not mortgage giant Fannie Mae) and because the company opened them too quickly in untested markets. See’s had to retreat. Today it remains a Western phenomenon; 110 of its 211 stores are in California.

See’s does, however, open seasonal carts in shopping malls all across the country — called “holiday gift centers” (HGCs) — that are around only for Christmas (a few reopen for Valentine’s Day and Easter). It uses their success to measure where a permanent shop might do well. Based on HGC performance, See’s opened its first two stores in Dallas this summer and will open three more in Texas this year. It is slowly moving across the country. In 2012 it is on track to open five stores in Texas, one in Oklahoma, one in Wisconsin, and one in Indiana. Next year it plans to open in Missouri, Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Pennsylvania. For 2014, Kinstler envisions stores as far east as Florida and Washington, D.C.

While the plan is ambitious, it is measured. With each store requiring less than $300,000 to build out, “it’s not even a rounded decimal point in Berkshire’s financials,” Kinstler says. Even as he tries to open more than 30 new stores in three years, he’ll do it cautiously, watching how the stores perform in each new market before opening more: “Until I’m very comfortable and convinced, the foot’s always ready to be on the brake as opposed to the gas.”   (Grow on the periphery? Sensible?).

Nevertheless, to help usher this plan along, last October Kinstler hired a new VP of marketing: Tracy Cioffi, who had previous marketing stints at the Sports Authority and Gap (GPS). (When she took the See’s job and updated her profile on LinkedIn, she says many of her contacts expressed surprise. “I just wrote back, in bullet points: Buffett. Berkshire Hathaway. Made in the USA. Do your homework.”) Cioffi, 36, will spearhead an effort to alert new customers to the brand. “We can’t focus on great-grandma anymore,” she says. Her new bull’s-eye is a thirtysomething mother. How do you pull in new, young customers to a 91-year-old candy company that packages its sweets in black-and-white boxes with a kindly old woman on the front? “Usually I’m tasked to make it up … create the brand,” says Cioffi. “I don’t need to do that here — the story is there, the heritage is there. I need to package it and tell it.”

1952: The I Love Lucy show airs its iconic episode featuring high jinks on a chocolate assembly line inspired by the See's L.A. plant.

1952: The I Love Lucy show airs its iconic episode featuring high jinks on a chocolate assembly line inspired by the See’s L.A. plant.

Part of that storytelling will happen in the digital sphere, which seems like a natural home for a brand with the cultlike appeal of See’s. Cioffi touts the company’s Facebook page and its 880,000 “likes.” On sees.com — which Buffett himself pushed to create in 1998 — most pieces have 800 reviews or more, and almost all have an average rating that is close to five stars. The brand’s web presence will be increasingly vital, as 65% of consumer orders now originate online (the rest come via phone, and a tiny portion by snail mail). See’s logs an average 250 online orders each day just for “special packs,” the make-your-own-box option. During peak holiday time, that balloons to 2,200 each day. It makes sense: Boxed chocolate is a highly seasonal business — See’s makes 90% of its money in only four months of the year. To combat the lulls, See’s puts out seasonal flavors, like tropical tango, a refreshing coconut piece, in the summer. (There is a mincemeat flavor for Christmas, and an Irish potato piece for St. Patrick’s Day.)

The logistics of distributing a perishable product are complicated. To truly expand, See’s will have to open up a new plant. That will mean finding new suppliers for all the fresh local ingredients it uses. A big selling point of See’s is that all its ingredients, from Guittard chocolate to Mariani shelled walnuts, are fresh and local; the only items from outside the country are pine nuts and vanilla. Thus, the ingredients don’t travel far to get to the cold lockers where “nut meats” are stored, or to the giant outdoor vats that house milk chocolate and dark chocolate. (In 1994 a driver delivering a bulk order of chocolate fell asleep while his truck was hooked up to one of the vats and pumping; the streets flooded with chocolate and, once the fog cooled it, workers had to shovel it away from the storm drains.) The lack of any added preservatives is a draw for consumers but can make stocking See’s a hassle for its licensees; the candy has a very short shelf life. Scotch kisses, for example, can stay on shelves only 25 days because the caramel isn’t coated in anything.

MORE: What it’s like to work for Warren Buffett

See’s pushes the “no added preservatives” line hard. Employees like to point out that Godiva boxes can stay on shelves much longer (Godiva declined to comment for this article). That See’s would try to appeal to new customers by stressing old values matches up nicely with its plants, which run on a balance of automation and live labor. Men in aprons and goggles churn at giant, steaming cauldrons of caramel. Someone stands and shoots vegetable oil onto a sheet of rum nougat so that it won’t stick to the slicer. A handful of the machines are nearly 100 years old and still going, like the “tinner” that sorts Toffee-ettes into tins, which is from 1919. In other sections brand-new machines roar along, like the flashy robots that make peanut brittle — one stretches out the sheets of brittle, the other flips them — and are nicknamed Tweety and Sylvester. By the time production stops at 2 p.m., marshmallow drips from machinery and a dusting of nut shavings coats the floors. The sanitation crews that come at 3 p.m. are often there for eight hours. In some areas extra chocolate is collected and mixed in with raw food material that ends up feeding farm animals. “We used to call the extra chocolate ‘hog food,'” says L.A. plant manager Gary Gitch.

Though See’s doesn’t officially give public tours of its plants, well-known fans like Cher — who worked at See’s before she achieved fame — have come by, and Buffett once brought Bill Gates for a tour. Buffett says that when his 5-year-old grandson took a tour years ago and gorged on samples, “he was with a couple little buddies, and [after the tour] he gets out of the car and just throws up all of it.”

Workers at the L.A. plant smooth over a line of chocolate fudge.

Workers at the L.A. plant smooth over a line of chocolate fudge.

See’s faces obstacles before it can get kids on the East Coast hooked too. Boxed chocolates is a crowded field: At the high-end there’s Godiva, as well as newer boutique brands that have emerged in recent years. Below See’s there is an abundance of what Duag calls “pharmacy candy,” a market dominated by Russell Stover. According to data from research firm Symphony IRI, in the past year through July 8, Russell Stover’s sales were $90.1 million, Whitman’s Samplers (which Russell Stover owns) did $38 million, Hershey’s (HSY) gift boxes did $20.4 million, Lindt’s boxed chocolates did $11.9 million, and Fannie May did $4 million.

For See’s to win the race in new territories, Cioffi says branding will be key. She hopes to change the voice of See’s. “Right now, I would say we’re sweet,” she says. “I want to get us to where we’re sweet with a wink.”

Bernard Pacyniak, editor of Candy Industry magazine, thinks it may take more than a wink for See’s to break through on the colder coast. “I don’t think See’s means anything to people on the East Coast, where people are also exposed to higher-end chocolate products,” he says. “Their base is still very much the loyal West Coast customers, and on the East Coast they’ll have to start from scratch.” Chip Huggins, who is the son of the company’s longtime CEO and who began working at See’s for his father at age 14 and eventually left to run Joseph Schmidt Confections, asks, “If you put See’s everywhere, what makes it so special anymore?”  (Krispy Kreme Donuts)

It’s a fair question. Like many products with a fervent fan base, the scarcity of See’s provides a large part of its appeal. Kinstler isn’t too worried. He thinks that if the company does lose some customers as it becomes more readily available, the exposure to new people will be worth it. He points to Coors as an example: “When I was growing up, you had to go to Colorado to get it, and that made it very cool,” he says. “But I think Coors is much better off today, now that they expanded and are widely available.”  (Oh really? HOW?)

Most beer drinkers would probably agree. And See’s is betting that most fans of Mary See’s recipes will too.

This story is from the September 3, 2012 issue of Fortune.

As a strategist how might Godiva (Luxury) chocolates respond?

HINTS: 2004_12_Requiem_for_a_Brewer

Coors Case Study

Coors in the Brewing Industry_HBS_Case Study

CoorsCaseStudyAnalysis2004

If you need more insight or help, go here (but first think about applying the Coors Case Studies): Sees Candies Market Entry into Japan HBR_CS and Sees Candies Market Entry into Japan HBR_CS_Part B

Good luck!

We will post Mr. Buffett’s reply to your letter.

Google; Paul Ryan; a Hidden Champion

 

 Where Goole Gets its Power

 An example of customer captivity: http://www.mises.org/daily/5695/Where-Google-Gets-Its-Power

Paul Ryan’s Fairy-Tale Budget Plan

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/opinion/paul-ryans-fairy-tale-budget-plan.html?ref=opinion

 August 13, 2012

More crony capitalism

By DAVID A. STOCKMAN                                                                   Greenwich, Conn.

PAUL D. RYAN is the most articulate and intellectually imposing Republican of the moment, but that doesn’t alter the fact that this earnest congressman from Wisconsin is preaching the same empty conservative sermon.

Thirty years of Republican apostasy — a once grand party’s embrace of the welfare state, the warfare state and the Wall Street-coddling bailout state — have crippled the engines of capitalism and buried us in debt. Mr. Ryan’s sonorous campaign rhetoric about shrinking Big Government and giving tax cuts to “job creators” (read: the top 2 percent) will do nothing to reverse the nation’s economic decline and arrest its fiscal collapse.

Mr. Ryan professes to be a defense hawk, though the true conservatives of modern times — Calvin Coolidge, Herbert C. Hoover, Robert A. Taft, Dwight D. Eisenhower, even Gerald R. Ford — would have had no use for the neoconconservative imperialism that the G.O.P. cobbled from policy salons run by Irving Kristol’s ex-Trotskyites three decades ago. These doctrines now saddle our bankrupt nation with a roughly $775 billion “defense” budget in a world where we have no advanced industrial state enemies and have been fired (appropriately) as the global policeman.

Indeed, adjusted for inflation, today’s national security budget is nearly double Eisenhower’s when he left office in 1961 (about $400 billion in today’s dollars) — a level Ike deemed sufficient to contain the very real Soviet nuclear threat in the era just after Sputnik. By contrast, the Romney-Ryan version of shrinking Big Government is to increase our already outlandish warfare-state budget and risk even more spending by saber-rattling at a benighted but irrelevant Iran.

Similarly, there can be no hope of a return to vibrant capitalism unless there is a sweeping housecleaning at the Federal Reserve and a thorough renunciation of its interest-rate fixing, bond buying and recurring bailouts of Wall Street speculators. The Greenspan-Bernanke campaigns to repress interest rates have crushed savers, mocked thrift and fueled enormous overconsumption and trade deficits.

The greatest regulatory problem — far more urgent that the environmental marginalia Mitt Romney has fumed about — is that the giant Wall Street banks remain dangerous quasi-wards of the state and are inexorably prone to speculative abuse of taxpayer-insured deposits and the Fed’s cheap money. Forget about “too big to fail.” These banks are too big to exist — too big to manage internally and to regulate externally. They need to be broken up by regulatory decree. Instead, the Romney-Ryan ticket attacks the pointless Dodd-Frank regulatory overhaul, when what’s needed is a restoration of Glass-Steagall, the Depression-era legislation that separated commercial and investment banking.

Mr. Ryan showed his conservative mettle in 2008 when he folded like a lawn chair on the auto bailout and the Wall Street bailout. But the greater hypocrisy is his phony “plan” to solve the entitlements mess by deferring changes to social insurance by at least a decade.

A true agenda to reform the welfare state would require a sweeping, income-based eligibility test, which would reduce or eliminate social insurance benefits for millions of affluent retirees. Without it, there is no math that can avoid giant tax increases or vast new borrowing. Yet the supposedly courageous Ryan plan would not cut one dime over the next decade from the $1.3 trillion-per-year cost of Social Security and Medicare.

Instead, it shreds the measly means-tested safety net for the vulnerable: the roughly $100 billion per year for food stamps and cash assistance for needy families and the $300 billion budget for Medicaid, the health insurance program for the poor and disabled. Shifting more Medicaid costs to the states will be mere make-believe if federal financing is drastically cut.

Likewise, hacking away at the roughly $400 billion domestic discretionary budget (what’s left of the federal budget after defense, Social Security, health and safety-net spending and interest on the national debt) will yield only a rounding error’s worth of savings after popular programs (which Republicans heartily favor) like cancer research, national parks, veterans’ benefits, farm aid, highway subsidies, education grants and small-business loans are accommodated.

Like his new boss, Mr. Ryan has no serious plan to create jobs. America has some of the highest labor costs in the world, and saddles workers and businesses with $1 trillion per year in job-destroying payroll taxes. We need a national sales tax — a consumption tax, like the dreaded but efficient value-added tax — but Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan don’t have the gumption to support it.

The Ryan Plan boils down to a fetish for cutting the top marginal income-tax rate for “job creators” — i.e. the superwealthy — to 25 percent and paying for it with an as-yet-undisclosed plan to broaden the tax base. Of the $1 trillion in so-called tax expenditures that the plan would attack, the vast majority would come from slashing popular tax breaks for employer-provided health insurance, mortgage interest, 401(k) accounts, state and local taxes, charitable giving and the like, not to mention low rates on capital gains and dividends. The crony capitalists of K Street already own more than enough Republican votes to stop that train before it leaves the station.

In short, Mr. Ryan’s plan is devoid of credible math or hard policy choices. And it couldn’t pass even if Republicans were to take the presidency and both houses of Congress. Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan have no plan to take on Wall Street, the Fed, the military-industrial complex, social insurance or the nation’s fiscal calamity and no plan to revive capitalist prosperity — just empty sermons.

David A. Stockman, who was the director of the Office of Management and Budget from 1981 to 1985, is the author of the forthcoming book “The Great Deformation: How Crony Capitalism Corrupts Free Markets and Democracy.”

Hidden Champions

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/business/global/german-small-businesses-reflect-countrys-strength.html?

August 13, 2012

German Small Businesses Reflect Country’s Strength

By JACK EWING

FRANKFURT — A growing number of Germans may want to see the euro zone dissolve, but Dagmar Bollin-Flade, owner of a small machinery company here, is not among them. Like many German businesspeople, she is keenly aware of the economic benefits of a common currency — and willing to pay a price to keep the euro intact.

“All those who say, ‘We want to get out of the euro’ — they don’t remember how it was,” Ms. Bollin-Flade said.

Her company, Christian Bollin Armaturenfabrik, belongs to the country’s vast swath of small and medium-size companies that are known as the Mittelstand and account for 60 percent of German jobs. Most feel no nostalgia for the days when they and their customers had to keep an eye on the value of a dozen European currencies, a time when the German mark sometimes became so strong that it threatened to price them out of foreign markets.

Amid loose talk about letting Greece leave the euro, or even reintroducing the mark, German business leaders are often the ones reminding the public what the economic consequences might be. Markus Kerber, president of the Federation of German Industry, last week called for more European integration and criticized what he said was “persistent political indecisiveness and disunity” that has undermined trust in the euro.

More than most, the Mittelstand has benefited from the euro, which has made it easier for small companies to behave like multinationals. Bollin, with about 30 employees in a small factory, sells its specialty shut-off valves to customers in China and around Europe.

So far, companies like Bollin have endured the euro zone debt crisis remarkably well. Ms. Bollin-Flade said she has not seen any effect on sales. But she and her peers are concerned about the future. In a poll commissioned this year by the industry federation, the number of Mittelstand companies that expected business to improve in the next 12 months slumped, while the number expecting a turn for the worse soared.

Ms. Bollin-Flade, who was one of about 10 businesspeople invited to discuss Mittelstand issues with Chancellor Angela Merkel in her office last year, said she supported the German leader’s strategy of insisting that financial aid be granted to troubled euro zone countries only if they show more fiscal discipline and economic reforms.

“We should get something in return,” Ms. Bollin-Flade said.

What people like her think is important. While companies like BMW and Siemens spring to mind when people think of German business, the Mittelstand is arguably the soul of the German economy, and also reflects many of the values that Germany is known for.

In fact, the Germany economy sometimes resembles one big Mittelstand company: it is built for stability more than growth. Debt is bad, prudence a higher virtue than profit.

That characteristic often frustrates Germany’s neighbors, as well as some economists, who wish Germans would spend more to stimulate growth in the rest of the euro zone. But Germans argue that their approach has helped the country avoid downturns like those that have hit Spain and Italy and are threatening France. While Greece was racking up debt during the last decade, Mittelstand companies were resolutely cutting theirs, according to data from the Institute for Mittelstand Research in Bonn.

They want to increase their independence from banks and external financing,” said Christoph Lamsfuss, an economist at the institute. “They want to make sure that the next generation inherits a solid company. In the final analysis that is good for the German economy.”

Companies like Christian Bollin Armaturenfabrik, named for Ms. Bollin-Flade’s grandfather, who founded the maker of specialized valves in 1924, will play an important supporting role in determining how much the German economy will continue to provide a crucial counterweight to the recession in Southern Europe.

Data scheduled to be released Tuesday is expected to show that the German economy continued to grow modestly in the second quarter of this year. Not so the euro zone as a whole, which had zero growth in the first quarter and was unlikely to have shown growth in the second. France may join Spain, Italy and several other euro zone countries that have experienced declining output.

There are signs that the crisis is now beginning to hurt German industry. Production in the country’s factories fell 0.9 percent in June from May, according to official figures. New orders have begun to slump.

Yet there are also reasons to believe that the Mittelstand is well armored for a downturn. The turmoil of the 20th century, the years of stagnation that followed German reunification and then a sharp recession in 2009 have taught Mittelstand companies to be prepared for the worst.

A few years ago, Ms. Bollin-Flade did something that may help explain why the German economy has been so resilient. She turned down orders from her biggest customer.

Ms. Bollin-Flade was worried about becoming too dependent on any one source of revenue. So she and her husband and business partner, Bernd Flade, enforced a rule they still apply today: no customer may account for more than 10 percent of sales, even if that sometimes means turning away business.

“If 20 percent of your sales fall away, that’s difficult,” Ms. Bollin-Flade said. “If 10 percent falls away it’s not nice, but it’s not dramatic.”

In places like Silicon Valley or Shanghai, leaving money on the table like that would probably be enough to get an entrepreneur drummed out of the local chamber of commerce. But the risk aversion, and the preference for slow, steady growth rather than a quick euro, is typical of the Mittelstand.

“My machines are paid for,” said Ms. Bollin-Flade. “I have no bank credit. That’s what sets the Mittelstand apart. You set aside something for bad times.”

Yet — illustrating one of the strengths typical of Mittelstand firms — Bollin Armaturenfabrik has an international reputation and exports its high-end niche products around the world. On a recent day, a wooden pallet sat on the workshop floor stacked with cardboard boxes marked for China.

“That’s going to Beijing on Friday,” said Marcus Franz, the production manager, speaking above the whir of metal lathes and drill presses.

Bollin specializes in making parts to order and delivering them quickly — sometimes within hours, if need be. Customers will pay what they have to for a component that may be essential to keep a factory running, Ms. Bollin-Flade said. “The price is not the issue. Delivery time is the issue,” she said. “There aren’t too many companies that do what I do.”

She summed up the frugal Mittelstand approach to business by quoting an old saying. “You can only wear one pair of pants,” said Ms. Bollin-Flade, who was wearing a pantsuit. “The second one is in the closet and you don’t need the third.”

Vail Value Conference: Some Case Studies

After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!   –Jesse Livermore.

Many presentations found in this summary of the Vail Value Conference: http://contrarianedge.com/2012/08/01/thoughts-from-valuex-vail-2012-conference/

Several of the presentations are worth studying. See if you can analyze the companies below and then compare your conclusions with the presentations. Do you agree or disagree with the valuation. I included the Value-Line Tear Sheet as reference. You can download the financials of each company from their web-sites. Try the simplier businesses like PSUN or Staples.

Dream_Works-ValueXVail-2012-Barry-Pasikov  and DWA_VL

PSUN-ValueXVail-2012-Shane-Calhoun and PSUN_VL

Staples-ValueXVail-2012-Adrian-Mak and Staples_VL

SS_CNW-ValueXVail-2012-Dan-Amoss and CNW_VL

AMZN-ValueXVail-2012-Josh-Tarasoff and AMZN_VL

LINTA-ValueXVail-2012-Patrick-Brennan.

JCP Potential Case Study; SCAMS and More

JC Penny’s (JCP) Announces Terrible Earnings but The stock rallies

Is the market a discounting mechanism? Jim Cramer of CNBC would say, “JCP is a CROWDED short.” The beginnings of a case study here: JCP_Barrons

Scams

My inbox is being flooded (as a subscriber–to find shorts–to Penny Stock Newsletters my email is raw meat for scammers) with more sophisticated scams: IMF_–_International_Monetary_Fund_SCAM

My email automatically responds to the scammer to call about 50 different (phony) phone numbers in the US to reach me so I can wire funds to help them.

Portfolios

Beyond Buffett_Aug 12 (The old Harry Browne Method of Asset Diversification)

Note: Charlie Munger once said that no one ever got rich being an asset allocator.

Updated: Aug. 13, 2012: from www.economicpolicyjournal.com

The economist and financial author Harry Browne once designed what he
called a “Permanent Portfolio”. The idea behind PP was to create a
portfolio in away that investments were made so that the portfolio
would maintain its value and grow conservatively over time, with
certain parts of the portfolio outperforming other parts of the
portfolio at different times, depending upon the economic
environment—without having to time the economy.

Browne’s idea was to equally divide up a certain amount of money
between various sectors. Because he felt the economy was cyclical, he
felt that when a sector was cheap (and might be poised for a climb)
you would end up buying more unit wise in that sector, if you
allocated your money equally among the sectors,  and less, unit wise,
when prices were higher, BUT that this still resulted in your
participating in all sectors, without having to attempt to time the
exact ups and downs of the business cycle.

There’s a lot to be said  for Browne’s PP.

His four sectors were:

The US stock market via warrants
The 30-year T-bond.
Gold coins.
Cash, i.e.,Treasury bills

This is a good base to work with. However, given that the yield on the
30-year Treasury bonds is so low (2.65%), in my view it makes no sense
to put money in them. Thus, I would put money into only three sectors:
gold coins, Treasury bills and the US stock market.

As far as gold coins are concerned, I would divide up purchases
between both gold coins and  silver coins. And also, if your back is
strong enough, nickels.

Put 33% in nickels of your “gold sector” purchases. They can be
acquired at any bank. Put 33% in gold coins and  33% in silver coins.

Buy only what is known as “junk silver”  (These silver coins come in
bags of $1,000 face value). as for gold buy only “bullion coins” such
as the American Eagle and Canadian Mapleleaf.

If you do not live near a major gold coin dear that has been in
business for at least a decade, consider buying from Kitco.I have
successfully purchased coins via mail with Kitco for many years. If
you chose to use a different dealer, you can use the Kitco prices
online as a guide. One note when buying online, split up your order,
so you don’t risk having an order lost. It’s very unlikely an order
will get lost but take the precaution and split you order up.,Kitco
sends by registered mail and they video tape every step of your coin
order as it is put in a box.

As for Treasury bills, depending upon the size of your purchase, you
can buy them directly from the Fed or through a bank or broker.When
possible, I recommend dealing directly with the Fed.

For those dealing in smaller numbers, I recommend  simply using a bank
account at a “Too Big To Fail” bank.

Browne recommended using warrants for the stock market portion of the
portfolio, there is nothing wrong with this. However, carefully chosen
stocks picks will provide just as much upside potential as warrants,
with less of the downside risk.

Thus to re-cap:

A PP, under current market conditions should look like this:

33% in Treasury bills (or funds at a Too Big To Fail bank)

33% In gold coins (actually split up between 1/3 gold coins, 1/3,
silver coins and 1/3 nickels)

33% in the stock market (with stocks that will benefit from inflation
and also from individual growth trends)

How much should be put into your PP?

It depends upon your age and your wealth. The older you are and the
more wealth you have, the more that should be put into PP. perhaps
100%.

If you are very young and are willing to take on more risk, then
perhaps only 50% of your funds should be in a PP. The rest can be for
more aggressive trading.

The EPJ Daily Alert is about identifying opportunities for the stock
part of the PP and also identifying opportunities for more aggressive
traders.

Below are stocks and other investments that I have previously
identified in the EPJ Daily Alert and are still “active’ investments.
They are designated as PP (permanent portfolio) or AP (aggressive
portfolio) investments.

First, here is my view on nickels a gold coin sector PP investment:

NICKELS

At some point,nickles, which are mostly made of copper, will start to
disappear from
circulation, as the copper price climbs

There is right now approximately 5.0 cents worth of metal in a nickel.
It was much higher before the financial crisis: Close to 7 cents worth
of metal. When I run into someone that does not have a strong
background in investing, I now tell them to buy nickels. You need storage space and a strong back to move them around, but a $100 box of nickels (roughly the size of a very large brick) can be lifted without problem. You can stack
plenty of “bricks” on a hand truck.

What’s great about this investment is that there is no downside. In
the unlikely event that there is no inflation, you can just spend your
nickles.  But you will have to “order” your nickles from your bank. I
tend to try and keep any one order (per bank) to around $2,000 for
both handling (lifting) purposes and so that Ben Bernanke  doesn’t
personally visit to see what is going on.

You can also buy brand shiny new nickels from numismatic dealers for a
small charge, and obviously they don’t ask any questions. But, again, nickels are a great conservative investment  [If you have the space and the back] with zero downside.

One hedge fund manager has reportedly ordered from his bank a million
dollars worth of nickels. I fully expect the coins will eventually
climb in value to at least double their 5 cent  face value price. The
government has made it illegal to melt them down, but you will never have to do anything close to that. When you need to liquidate, just sell them to a
numismatic dealer. Via the magic of black markets, the value (with a
good spread) will track the metal value. You can monitor the value of
the metal in the nickels at the website Coinflation.com.

As part of the PP stock portfolio, I include:

COMMERICA WARRANTS

Comerica (CMA-WT) warrants have much less exposure to foreclosuregate
than other major banks (They are heavy into commercial loans which
will benefit from Fed printing, and the warrants offer an opportunity
to play CMA on a leveraged basis, while limiting risk.  These warrants
were issued by Comerica to the Treasury as part of the TARP program.
Warrants give you great upside leverage with limited downside risk. A
hedge fund manager I know, who has studied these warrants, tells me
they are mis-priced. He tells me traders use the Black_Scholes  option
model to determine value of the warrants, but the manger argues, the
option model undervalues warrants.

For example Comerica warrants expire in late 2018 and the change in
intrinsic value of the warrants will depend on the value of Comerica
in 2017. Which means long-term trends are much more important in these
warrants, and this is not properly taken into consideration in the
short-term thinking of the Black-Scholes model.

Economies of Scale Article and VALUE VAULT Update.

A Reader suggests a New Yorker article on Economies of Scale or comparing the world of medicine and healthcare to the efficiency of a restaurant chain.

Big MED

by Atul

Gawande,

August 13, 2012

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/08/13/120813fa_fact_gawande?currentPage=all

An excerpt:…. Big (restaurant) chains thrive because they provide goods and services of greater variety, better quality, and lower cost than would otherwise be available. Size is the key. It gives them buying power, lets them centralize common functions, and allows them to adopt and diffuse innovations faster than they could if they were a bunch of small, independent operations. Such advantages have made Walmart the most successful retailer on earth. Pizza Hut alone runs one in eight pizza restaurants in the country. The Cheesecake Factory’s major competitor, Darden, owns Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Red Lobster, and the Capital Grille; it has more than two thousand restaurants across the country and employs more than a hundred and eighty thousand people. We can bristle at the idea of chains and mass production, with their homogeneity, predictability, and constant genuflection to the value-for-money god. Then you spend a bad night in a “quaint” “one of a kind” bed-and-breakfast that turns out to have a manic, halitoxic innkeeper who can’t keep the hot water running, and it’s right back to the Hyatt.

Editor: Of course, the way we–as investors–judge economies of scale is by return on invested capital. Does the business have an advantage over its competitors or potential entrants in cost and customer captivity? The author may be describing efficiency rather than true economies of scale advantages. 

Update on the VALUE VAULT

Unfortunately, I have been swamped so work on reorganization has been slow, but a pot of coffee and an all-nighter might do the trick this weekend. The VAULT has been slow due to the many key requests. There are many people trying to access and download simultaneously but it should die down/get faster once the frenzy fades.

Thanks for your patience.

A Tip for Beginners in Learning An Industry: Cruise Ships

Using this Blog

www.csinvesting.org has an eclectic mix of posts on valuation, competitive analysis and accounting. Use the search box in the upper right corner for relevant posts on subjects that interest you. For example, if you want to learn more about EBITDA as a cash flow metric then type those words into the search box and you will see several posts like this one: Placing EBITDA into perspective: http://wp.me/p1PgpH-yS.

Value Vault

Also, there are over 60 books, many case studies and 30 videos on investing in the VALUE VAULT. Email me at Aldridge56@aol.com with (only) VALUE VAULT in the subject line. Within 48 hours, I will do my best to send you the keys to the cloud-based folder so you can download anything you might like to study. No reply? Just email me a reminder. I know this blog needs better organization and all the information can be overwhelming for new investors. The trick to developing skill is to cut through all the noise to focus on the key issues that will drive the success of the investment. Practice reading original 10-Ks and 10-Qs and Proxies.  Look at profitability, margins, trends, ownership, and the history of the industry. Take and keep notes. What are you learning?

Other blogs

A self-taught investor with excellent examples http://www.gannonandhoangoninvesting.com/     

Another for beginners: http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/

http://www.oddballstocks.com/
http://www.practicetruthfearnothing.com/
http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/06/picture-guide-to-financial-markets-since-1800/
http://www.thedividendguyblog.com/2009/04/27/

lessons-and-ideas-from-benjamin-graham-by-jason-zweig/

APPLY, APPLYBut YOU must apply what you read to the actual world. Practice.

Investing is something that you DO. OK, you are a beginner and you have read a basic book

on accounting (Go to the folder called BOOKS in the VALUE VAULT and choose

How to Read a Financial Statement. Next ask yourself,

“Would I want to invest in the cruise ship industry?” (Find out)

“Can I understand what drives profitability? What factors can the

companies control? Is there a better company than the others?” Compare the

two (CCL and RCL -see below) using common-size financial statements to

see trends or indications of strength or weaknesses. Common-size financial statements:

http://smallbusiness.chron.com/normalized-commonsize-financial-statement-25471.html.

Read through two years of annual reports and proxies for both companies,

noting what you don’t understand–then go look up and research the answers.

Read about the industry BEFORE you read this article (click on link):

Case Study for Beginners Study an Industry Cruise Ships.

Background on Carnival Corporation

CCL_VL  CCL_Morn   CCL_2011 Annual Report

Royal Caribbean

RCL_VL    RCL_Morn   RCL_Investor Relations Presentation March 2012

Then read the article and see if you agree or can reverse engineer

what the writer did. I think you will have more fun and make your learning more relevant.

 Have a Great Weekend!

Fundoo Professor–Value and Behavioral Investing Blog

http://fundooprofessor.wordpress.com/2012/07/09/flirting-with-floats-part-i/

The above blog is written by a finance professor and professional value investor. A great read.

·         Recent Posts

The Innovator’s Dilemma and Porter’s Five Forces

Buying a cyclical (company) after several years of record earnings and when the P/E ratio has hit a low point is a proven method for losing half of your money in a short period of time. –Peter Lynch, Beating the Street

Link right below for the book

The_Innovators_Dilemma.

Now in the books folder within the VALUE VAULT. Thanks to a gracious  contributor.

Readers discussed the importance of this work: http://wp.me/p1PgpH-13O.

A reader’s review: http://valueprax.wordpress.com/2012/05/07/review-the-innovators-dilemma-innovation/

For those who wish a supplement to Porter’s Five Forces: Five forces industry analysis

Will a careful reading help save me from another Nokia? Let’s pray.