Investment Methodology for Investing in Franchises

“To invest successfully, you need not understand beta, efficient markets, modern portfolio theory, option pricing or emerging markets. You may, in fact, be better off knowing nothing of these. That, of course, is not the prevailing view at most business schools, whose finance curriculum tends to be dominated by such subjects. In our view, though, investment students need only two well-taught courses – How to Value a Business, and How to Think About Market Prices.”

“Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now. Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards – so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock. You must also resist the temptation to stray from your guidelines: If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes. Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio’s market value.” (1996 Chairman’s Letter–Warren Buffett

Franchise Investing

Many weeks ago I mentioned and posted a book on using clean (taking out the “dirty” stuff like one-time accruals) surplus accountinghttp://wp.me/p1PgpH-Fx

The gist of the method is to use clean surplus accounting to calculate the company’s true return on equity that makes it easily comparable to other companies. Then invest (at the right price) in companies with better than average ROEs than the market’s average ROE (13%) if you want to outperform an index of stocks.

Obviously, if a company sports a relatively consistent ROE above 15% without too much debt, then the company probably operates with competitive advantages.

Learn More

For those who wish to learn more: You can listen to radio segments http://www.buffettandbeyond.com/radio.html of the promoter of “Buffett and Beyond.” Yes, a bit promotional, but the concept the Professor is explaining is sound.

For a list of companies that fit the investment parameters go here: Parameters_for_Investing_the_Buffett_and_Beyond_way

A consolidation of past articles: Clean surplus article

If you have a method that makes sense, you know how it works, and you have confidence in its LONG RUN performance, then you are better off than 99.9% of all investors in the market.

I am not promoting the above method as THE best way to invest, just suggesting that you develop your own investment philosophy and method that YOU believe in. This post is just an example of how you might go about developing your method.

Video on Volatility, Buffett Partnership Letters, Blog and Podcast Links

Buffett’s Partnership Letters

A reader alerted me that this blog has no link to Buffett’s original partnership letters. For shame, here they are:

Links to each original letter: http://www.rbcpa.com/WEB_letters/WEB_Letters_pre_berkshireTURNEDOFF.html

Newly typed Consolidated Letters for easier reading (suggested for ease of study)Complete_Buffett_partnership_letters-1957-70_in Sections

Readings and Videos in Economics

http://mises.org/Literature/

http://www.libertyclassroom.com/

Video on Boone Pickens discussing Natural Gas: http://martinkronicle.com/2012/05/02/boone-pickens-pickens-plan-natural/

Developing skills and understanding your own foibles–Trader and Stock Blogs http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/trader_development.htm  Search for topics of interest.  Often trading blogs focus on the psychological aspects of trading since traders make many more discrete decisions than long-term investors, thus trading blogs can be of use to understanding how we make decisions under pressure and uncertainty.

Recent CNBC Munger Interview http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000088395

Podcast on Steve Case’s book, The Indomitable Investor. Why people on main street do not understand how Wall Street works. His main point, “Bad investors think of ways to make money and good investors think of ways not to lose money.” http://martinkronicle.com/2012/04/02/steve-sears-indomitable-investor/

www.greenbackd.com is back posting with great articles on Greenblatt’s Magic Formula and more.

Fascinating 5 minute Video on Stock Market Volatility:

Artemis Capital Management LLC is pleased to present “Volatility at World’s End: Two Decades of Movement in Markets” a unique visualization of implied and realized stock market volatility from 1990 to 2011. The video was originally shown as part of Christopher Cole’s speech at the 2012 Global Derivatives and Risk Management Conference in Barcelona Spain on April 17th.

The movement of stock prices has been an obsession for generations of speculators and traders. On a higher level mathematicians believe that modern markets are an extension of the same fractal beauty found in nature. Visualized these stock markets may take the shape of a turbulent ocean with waves made of human hopes, dreams, greed, and fear. Merging the world of high-finance and high-art Artemis Capital Management LLC is proud to present a creative visualization of stock market volatility over the last two decades.

Volatility at World’s End: Two Decades of Movement in Markets is a depiction of real stock market volatility using trading data from 1990 to 2011. The visuals are designed from S&P 500 index option data replicating the implied volatility wave (or variance swap curve) extending to an expiration of one year. The front of the volatility wave contains the same data used to calculate the CBOE VIX index. The movement of this wave demonstrates changing trader expectations of the future stock market volatility. As the wave moves through time the expected (or implied) volatility surface transforms into a realized volatility surface derived from historical S&P 500 index movement. The transition represents what professional traders call “volatility arbitrage”. The color variation in the volatility waves show the volatility-of-volatility or internal movement of the wave. The track underneath the volatility wave represents underlying S&P 500 index prices.

Volatility at World’s End: Two Decades of Movement in Markets VIDEO (5 minutes) http://www.artemiscm.com/research/volitility-at-worlds-end-two-decades-of-movement-in-markets/

Learning from Other Investors; Buffett Recommends Gold

Learning from other Investors

I grouped several presentations from the Omaha May 6 and 7th Value Investors Conference for easier readingOmaha Value Conference Presentations May 2012.

I suggest that when you read the notes and see the name of a company–then try to download that company’s financials and value it.  Compare your analysis and valuation with the presentations below. Learn why your analysis differs from the presenter. Note Robotti’s presentation on Enerflex, Ltd. and N3’s presentation on SPN. Try your hand at valuing those companies BEFORE you read their analysis.

http://www.marketfolly.com/2012/05/notes-from-value-investing-congress.html

Also Graham and Doddesville Letter from CIMA: http://www.grahamanddoddsville.net/ or Spring 2012

James Montier’s Behavioral Investing Podcast

His talk starts at the 18:30 mark. Note his comments on fin. models and the Fed. http://cfapodcast.smartpros.com/web/live_events/Annual/Montier/index.html

Buffett on Gold

Howard Buffett on the Gold Standard

Updated Links for Competition Demystified and Ethyl Corp (Robotti)

I highly recommend that you go to the links below to read the PDF of this book. But the PDF lacks many of the graphs and tables so essential to the book. The point is to help you with the cases while you order the book–highly recommended–only about $11 to $15. One of the best books on analyzing businesses that I have stumbled upon. Ironically, the book never became popular like Good to Great and other Pop Management books.  Go here for the PDF of the book: Competition_Demystified__A_

Radically_Simplified_Approach_to_Business_Strategy

For a book review and link to Amazon’s reviews go here:

http://www.amazon.com/books-used-books-textbooks/b/ref=topnav_storetab_b?ie=UTF8&node=283155

http://seekingalpha.com/article/102642-the-importance-of-understanding-competitive-dynamics-to-picking-stocks

Robotti’s Investment Thesis of Ethyl Corporation

Yesterday, the case on Ethyl Corporation was provided http://wp.me/p1PgpH-J3. This is a case on managing a declining business (Lead-based Gasoline became outlawed). For more understanding and background I added an investor’s perspective on Ethyl here: Robotti Mention of Ethyl (See page 25)

The above article also has good analysis of Spin-offs. An excellent read. Thanks to a reader’s heads up!

Readers’ Questions and more

QUESTIONS

A reader from Norway: May I ask a couple of more questions please?

  •  What would you do differently if you had the opportunity to go back in time when you first audited Columbia Business School classes, how would you approach the learning material differently? How would you accelerate the learning process and absorb the material?

I stumbled upon Joel Greenblatt’s book, You Can Be a Stock Market Genius, and became hooked. My author search led me to Columbia’s GBS where he was teaching a class. I hopped on the train to 125th street in NYC and sat in on his classes. He graciously allowed in 1999 for auditors to sit in like Ben Graham allowed back in the 1940s and 50s. In fact, there were more non-students than graduate students in Graham’s classes.  I already had worked on Wall Street—useless for understanding how businesses worked or how to value them—but I had started companies so my background was applicable.

I would approach the material in the same way like learning how to fly a plane or develop any skill. You learn the theory, you practice in controlled situations (case studies) then you apply what you have learned in the market and then reflect on what you did right or wrong.  Read voraciously from many sources.

  •  What was you biggest learning/insight/eureka moment from Greenblatt and Greenwald?

There are no secrets. You need to be comfortable with uncertainty and limited knowledge. You have to work hard to find and value businesses. Not all businesses are able to be valued by you, so walk away; be selective.  Investing is doing, so apply your knowledge to the opportunities in front of you (or wait for tomorrow for better ones to tumble at your feet). Investing is a solo activity. The key moment was realizing no guru can show you the way; you will have to think for yourself and apply the principles to the world around you. I don’t visit investment conferences anymore because I don’t want to hear other people’s ideas; I prefer to spend time uncovering my own. Time is precious, thus choices have to be made. You can’t watch other investors, mimic them or just copy; you have to be unique in your own way in seeking bargains. You have to be your own analyst. Yes, you should listen to others like: https://www.lmcm.com/OwnWords.asp?f=Sam_Peters_LMCMs_Philosophy_Process.wmv&d=869180 but time is better spent reading your own pile of 10-Ks.

  • In relation to your CBS class mates, what surprised you the most? What did they do wrong, did most of them maximize their learning opportunity?

I saw several playing video games. They didn’t care who Joel Greenblatt was or what he was teaching. They were there to fill a requirement to get an MBA and a high paying job.  I believe there course load is quite heavy so they might not have had the time to go more in depth into investing ideas and concepts. Again, if you want to be focused on investing, business school is not the place. You learn how to become a manager and you leave with a network. But I do not judge them. Many should not waste their time and talent on just investing.   Many are not suitable to the lonely journey of investing.

  • How did you manage to transcribe every word from the Greenblatt lectures? (the transcribed documents from Greenblatt > Greenblatt videos).

I taped the lectures then sent the clips to India to be transcribed. I sat in on classes for five years (1999 to 2003). If you are diligent, you could have taken Greenblatt’s book, Stock Market Genius and recreate from SEC filings of all his past investments just as if you were in his classes. Joel reminds me of Columbo, the TV detective (https://www.lmcm.com/OwnWords.asp?f=Sam_Peters_LMCMs_Philosophy_Process.wmv&d=869180). Joel makes investing seem so simple, but there is a lot of experience, knowledge and skill behind his actions.

  •  A reader from Uruguay asks, “How can I use the magic formula?” How do you calculate ROIC?

Go to www.magicformulainvesting.com and go to www.greenbackd.com to learn more.

Another reader asks:

I just finished Competition Demystified by Bruce Greenwald and it was an excellent book. This book has really opened my eyes and I can honestly say I have never approached investing from that point of view.

  •  I just need to try to apply it consistently. When you evaluate and investment and determine its a franchise, do you go through the steps he lays out in Chapter 2?

I try to understand the qualitative sources of competitive advantage so I can learn the company/industry. For example, I saw amazing share stability with title insurance companies stretching back 100 years, but cyclical and sometimes low profitability—why?  Most of the value accrues to the sales agent in a title insurance transaction, but due to regulation and databases, there are only three or four national title insurers. The process helps you break apart the sources of profitability for companies. The more you can understand, the better you will be able to normalize earnings or determine sustainability of growth.

THANKS FOR THE QUESTIONS!

Readings

Notes from Buffett’s Shareholder Meeting:Berkshire_Hathaway_Annual_Meeting_Notes_2012 and Berkshire_Hathaway_Annual_Meeting_2012

How to write a research report by Buffett (GEICO):The_Security_I_Like_Best_Buffett_1951

Do not forget to read: www.marketfolly.com for interesting presentations.

www.greenbackd.com as several recent articles on the Magic Formula.

Bill Miller on Central Banks and the Financial Crisis

Video of Bill Miller discussing central banking April 2012

http://www.interdependence.org/resources/re-examining-central-bank-orthodoxy-for-un-orthodox-times-keynote-speech/   26 minutes

Even after seeing his Legg Mason portfolios devastated, Mr. Miller doesn’t consider the question, “Why do we need central banks?” After failure upon failure of central bank policies of ceaseless boom and bust, devaluation, ballooning debt, punititve interest rates–both too low and too high–what will cause the public to understand the futility of central financial planning?

Imagine if Miller had read Ludwig von Mises (www.mises.org) instead of quoting the Austrian Philosopher, Ludwig Wittgenstein, he would have an inkling of what caused the boom and bust that eviscerated his portfolios:cbm 2003 Version of Trade Cycle

 

 

 

 

I would rather invest with him: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZnkql_Xkhc

Why is 49 the lucky number in France?

http://prudent-speculation.blogspot.com/2012/05/in-france-49-is-lucky-number.html?

 

Chapters 14 and 15 in Competition Demystified: Nintendo and Ethyl Corp. Case Studies

Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.–Warren Buffett

The issue with growth companies is always (1) whether the growth can be in fact be sustained into the future; and (2) whether those improved earnings have already been discounted at the time of purchase. All the evidence suggests that investors tend to overpay for growth. Our study suggests that paying more than 11 times five-year forward earnings for any kind of stock will be a unrewarding exercise; and that to beat the market convincingly lower ratings are still desirable. In the Templeton philosophy of investment, valuation is ultimately the constraint that limits any investor’s capacity for making consistent and repeatable gains. –page 165 of Templeton’s Way with Money by Jonathan Davis and Alasdair Nairn

Chapter 14: Cooperation without Incarceration: Bigger Pies, Fairly Divided

Study Questions:

  • What are the three parts of the “fairness principle” needed to sustain cooperation?
  • What are the benefits in analyzing how an industry and its players could cooperate even when there is no chance that the companies in a particular industry can overcome their competitive behavior?

Chapter 15: Cooperation: The Dos and Don’ts

Read the Nintendo case:HBS Nintendo in Video Games Case Study

Then try the study questions:

  • Describe the “virtuous circle” that Nintendo enjoyed when it dominated the 8-bit games market.
  • What were the major reasons Nintendo’s position as market leader deteriorated?

A good book to study for these cases is Co-opetition by Adam Brandenburger and Barry Nalebuff: http://www.consulttci.com/Book_reviews/coopetition.html

If you can’t read the book, then see the slides:Nalebuff and Coopetition Slides and also:http://www.provenmodels.com/593/co-opetition/brandenburger-nalebuff

Ethyl Case Study:HBS_Ethyl Corporation in 1979_Case Study

Robert Robotti’s Investment Thesis on (page 25) :Robotti Mention of Ethyl

Study Question:

  • In the lead additive market, what were the four or five major reasons the competitors maintained high profits despite a continually shrinking market?

Austrian Economics or (Anti-Keynesian) Policy Works in Sweden

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/05/anti-keynesian-supply-side-tax-and.html Surprise!  Interference and coersion distorts price signals that impedes the efficient allocation of resources thus destroying wealth.

Secret Research Tools for Success

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZnkql_Xkhc

Money Manager Presentations; Investment Philosophy; and Words of Wisdom

Columbia Graduate Business School established a Graham-and-Dodd chair, but oddly assigned it to Bruce Greenwald. Greenwald, an MIT-trained economist had married into money, made a million or two in bond futures, lost a similar sum in oils, and quit at the insistence of his in-laws. “At investing I’m a complete idiot,” he noted, rather affably, adding that it was speculating that turned him on. He invited Buffett to give  a guest lecture but did not think him imitable. “I’m sympathetic to the Graham-and-Dodd point of view,” Greenwald said, “but I’m not really a Graham-and-Dodder.” (Buffett by Roger Lowenstein-1995)

Notes on Money Manager Presentations

A reader graciously shared his notes on the VIC in Omaha (2012). I added supplementary materials

VIC_2012_Brian_Bares on the Small Cap Advantage

VIC_2012_Cara_Denver_Jacobsen 10 Years in Micro Cap Land

VIC_2012_Damodaran and Investment Philosophies:Damordaran 200 pages on Inv Philosophies

VIC_2012_Francisco_Garcia_Parames Finding European Value

VIC_2012_Jeff_Auxier Value of Cumulative Research

VIC_2012_Jeff_Stacey Global Value Investing

VIC_2012_Lauren_Templeton John Templeton’s Strategies

VIC_2012_Lisa_O-Dell_Rapuano Value Investing with a Contrarian Bent (Rec!)

VIC_2012_Pat_Dorsey on Moats (Important to read)

VIC_2012_Paul_Larson Morningstar Stockinvestor Newsletter Editor

VIC_2012_Robert_Hagstrom Investing: The Last Liberal Art. He recommends, How to Read a Book by Adler

VIC_2012_Seng_Hock_Tan Value Investing in Asia.

Words of Wisdom

VII_WOW

As always, adapt to your style, personality and aptitudes.

Humor:

My Research Director: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXromsE-S7g

My shocked face: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8edTjSx1nM&feature=related

Kodak-Polaroid Case Study from Chapter 13 of Competition Demystified

Case Study of Kodak’s Entry Strategy into Polaroid’s Market

HBS Case Study Part 1: Polaroid and Kodak 376_266 _1984 CS

HBS Case Study Part 2: Kodak vs Polaroid CS

This case illustrates Kodak’s ill-conceived entry strategy against Polaroid–a strong incumbent with competitive advantages.

This article http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/editors/27508/ shows why Kodak descended into bankruptcy. In my opinion, Kodak might have generated more shareholder value by focusing on protecting its film market while managing the business in run-off made by returning capital to shareholders. If Kodak wanted to compete in other markets, perhaps it could have spun-off subsidiarities to allow shareholders and other investors to have more choice in allocating capital.

Analysis

Chapter 13 Kodak and Polaroid Case Study Analysis

George Carlin on America; Buffett Notes; Aristotle on Ethics; Valuation and more

George Carlin, the Truth Teller

George Carlin: You have no Rights:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWiBt-pqp0E&feature=related

George Carlin on Choice in America: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKQs-jDI7j8&feature=related. Fascism won’t come to America in brown shirts and black boots but in yellow shirts with smiley faces on them.

Aristotle on Ethics

Judge men by their actions (one minute video):  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5quLP3rHxwQ&feature=related

Buffett Notes on 2012 Berkshire Shareholder Meeting

Notes on Recent Berkshire Hathaway Meeting (30 pages): http://covestreetcapital.com/Blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Notes-from-the-2012-Berkshire-Hathaway-Annual-Meeting.pdf

Herding Lizards on Wall Street:

The implication is that “Markets are irrational because of quirks in human nature,” Burnham explains in his 2005 book Mean Markets and Lizard Brains.

In this very interesting book Burnham explains that our lizard brains are pattern seeking and backward looking, which again was handy when we lived in caves, but not so great for managing our 401ks.

The fact is, without the constant inflation of fiat money, people would (or have to) spend very little time thinking about their money or savings. Squirreling a little money out of every paycheck would suffice for retirement preparation.

But the modern world of central-bank hyperplanning, hyperbailing, and hyperprinting makes that impossible.

http://mises.org/daily/6033/Herding-Lizards

Wall Street Traps for the Unwary: http://www.thereformedbroker.com/

Due Process Abandoned

The Obama administration now claims the authority to kill American citizens without a trial, without notice, and without any chance for targets to legally object. The “targeted killing” program of George W. Bush’s administration has been radically expanded to include Americans far from any war zone.

http://www.fff.org/freedom/fd1110c.asp

More on Buffett and his plans for forced redistribution: http://www.jamesaltucher.com/

Valuation

Jae Jun has borrowed some of my notes on Greenwald in his posts which I encourage anyone to do. His blog is an example of someone who is seriously committed to self-learning and teaching/sharing what he discovers. Bravo!  That said, no one is a guru so check  his posts with your own common sense and independent thinking. For example, replacement value is extremely difficult to do accurately.

http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/valuation-methods/valuation-matters-7-ways-value-stocks/

http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/valuation-methods/how-to-asset-reproduction-value-analysis/

Much more

www.simoleonsense.com